Most Democrats Don’t Want Biden in 2024, New Poll Shows

cigaretteman

HR King
May 29, 2001
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President Biden is facing an alarming level of doubt from inside his own party, with 64 percent of Democratic voters saying they would prefer a new standard-bearer in the 2024 presidential campaign, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll, as voters nationwide have soured on his leadership, giving him a meager 33 percent job-approval rating.
Widespread concerns about the economy and inflation have helped turn the national mood decidedly dark, both on Mr. Biden and the trajectory of the nation. More than three-quarters of registered voters see the United States moving in the wrong direction, a pervasive sense of pessimism that spans every corner of the country, every age range and racial group, cities, suburbs and rural areas, as well as both political parties.
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Only 13 percent of American voters said the nation was on the right track — the lowest point in Times polling since the depths of the financial crisis more than a decade ago.

Voters on the Direction of the Country​

Do you think the United States is on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction?

Note: Polls prior to 2020 are Times/CBS surveys of U.S. adults, with the wording “Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?”

Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 849 registered voters in the United States from July 5-7, 2022.
By Marco Hernandez
For Mr. Biden, that bleak national outlook has pushed his job approval rating to a perilously low point. Republican opposition is predictably overwhelming, but more than two-thirds of independents also now disapprove of the president’s performance, and nearly half disapprove strongly. Among fellow Democrats his approval rating stands at 70 percent, a relatively low figure for a president, especially heading into the 2022 midterms when Mr. Biden needs to rally Democrats to the polls to maintain control of Congress.

In a sign of deep vulnerability and of unease among what is supposed to be his political base, only 26 percent of Democratic voters said the party should renominate him in 2024.
Mr. Biden has said repeatedly that he intends to run for re-election in 2024. At 79, he is already the oldest president in American history, and concerns about his age ranked at the top of the list for Democratic voters who want the party to find an alternative.
The backlash against Mr. Biden and desire to move in a new direction were particularly acute among younger voters. In the survey, 94 percent of Democrats under the age of 30 said they would prefer a different presidential nominee.
“I’m just going to come out and say it: I want younger blood,” said Nicole Farrier, a 38-year-old preschool teacher in East Tawas, a small town in northern Michigan. “I am so tired of all old people running our country. I don’t want someone knocking on death’s door.”

Ms. Farrier, a Democrat who voted for Mr. Biden in 2020, said she had hoped he might have been able to do more to heal the nation’s divisions, but now, as a single mother, she is preoccupied with what she described as crippling increases in her cost of living. “I went from living a comfortable lifestyle to I can’t afford anything anymore,” she said.



Democrats’ Reasons for a Different Candidate​

What’s the most important reason you would prefer someone other than Joe Biden to be the Democratic Party’s 2024 presidential nominee?

Asked of 191 respondents who said they planned to vote in the 2024 Democratic primary and who preferred a candidate other than Joe Biden in a New York Times/Siena College poll from July 5-7, 2022.
By The New York Times
Jobs and the economy were the most important problem facing the country according to 20 percent of voters, with inflation and the cost of living (15 percent) close behind as prices are rising at the fastest rate in a generation. One in 10 voters named the state of American democracy and political division as the most pressing issue, about the same share who named gun policies, after several high-profile mass shootings.
More than 75 percent of voters in the poll said the economy was “extremely important” to them. And yet only 1 percent rated economic conditions as excellent. Among those who are typically working age — voters 18 to 64 years old — only 6 percent said the economy was good or excellent, while 93 percent rated it poor or only fair.
The White House has tried to trumpet strong job growth, including on Friday when Mr. Biden declared that he had overseen “the fastest and strongest jobs recovery in American history.” But the Times/Siena poll showed a vast disconnect between those boasts, and the strength of some economic indicators, and the financial reality that most Americans feel they are confronting.
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“We used to spend $200 a week just going out to have fun, or going and buying extra groceries if we needed it, and now we can’t even do that,” said Kelly King, a former factory worker in Greensburg, Ind., who is currently sidelined because of a back injury. “We’re barely able to buy what we need.”

Ms. King, 38, said she didn’t know if Mr. Biden was necessarily to blame for the spiking prices of gas and groceries but felt he should be doing more to help. “I feel like he hasn’t really spoken much about it,” Ms. King said. “He hasn’t done what I think he’s capable of doing as president to help the American people. As a Democrat, I figured he would really be on our side and put us back on the right track. And I just feel like he’s not.”
Now, she said, she is hoping Republicans take over Congress in November to course-correct.
One glimmer of good news for Mr. Biden is that the survey showed him with a narrow edge in a hypothetical rematch in 2024 with former President Donald J. Trump: 44 percent to 41 percent.
The result is a reminder of one of Mr. Biden’s favorite aphorisms: “Don’t compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the alternative.” The poll showed that Democratic misgivings about Mr. Biden seemed to mostly melt away when presented with a choice between him and Mr. Trump: 92 percent of Democrats said they would stick with Mr. Biden.

Randain Wright, a 41-year-old truck driver in Ocean Township, N.J., is typical of these voters. He said he talked frequently with friends about Mr. Biden’s shortcomings. “He’s just not aggressive enough in getting his agenda done,” Mr. Wright lamented. In contrast, he said, “Trump wasn’t afraid to get his people in line.”
But while he would prefer a different nominee in 2024, Mr. Wright said he still wouldn’t consider voting Republican in 2024 if faced with a Biden-Trump rematch.
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On the whole, voters appeared to like Mr. Biden more than they like his performance as president, with 39 percent saying they have a favorable impression of him — six percentage points higher than his job approval.

In saying they wanted a different nominee in 2024, Democrats cited a variety of reasons, with the most in an open-ended question citing his age (33 percent), followed closely by unhappiness with how he is doing the job. About one in eight Democrats just said that they wanted someone new, and one in 10 said he was not progressive enough. Smaller fractions expressed doubts about his ability to win and his mental acuity.
The Times/Siena survey of 849 registered voters nationwide was conducted from July 5 to 7, in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s June 24 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, eliminating the constitutional right to an abortion, which had been protected for half a century. The ruling sent Democrats into the streets and unleashed an outpouring of political contributions.
Typically, voters aligned with the party in power — Democrats now hold the House, the Senate and the White House — are more upbeat about the nation’s direction. But only 27 percent of Democrats saw the country as on the right track. And with the fall of Roe, there was a notable gender gap among Democrats: Only 20 percent of Democratic women said the country was moving in the right direction, compared with 39 percent of Democratic men.
Overall, abortion rated as the most important issue for 5 percent of voters: 1 percent of men, 9 percent of women.
Gun policies, following mass shootings in Buffalo, Uvalde, Tex., and elsewhere, and the Supreme Court’s June 23 ruling striking down a New York law that placed strict limits on carrying guns outside the home, were ranked as the top issue by 10 percent of voters — far higher than has been typical of nationwide polls in recent years. The issue was of even greater importance to Black and Hispanic voters, ranking roughly the same as inflation and the cost of living, the survey found.

 

StormHawk42

HR Legend
Nov 3, 2009
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I’ve said he needs to play the part until midterms and then announce he’s not running in 2024 to give the party plenty of time to come up with a legit field. Unfortunately, it can’t be Kamala either, which is a pretty lousy look for the current administration.

What’s interesting is that if R’s nominated someone like Liz Cheney (or Pence regrettably), they’d cruise in 2024. Nominating Trump will make it a fight. DeSantis might too. Dude is an absolute a-hole without Trump’s charism.
 

sober_teacher

HR Legend
Mar 26, 2007
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I’ve said he needs to play the part until midterms and then announce he’s not running in 2024 to give the party plenty of time to come up with a legit field. Unfortunately, it can’t be Kamala either, which is a pretty lousy look for the current administration.

What’s interesting is that if R’s nominated someone like Liz Cheney (or Pence regrettably), they’d cruise in 2024. Nominating Trump will make it a fight. DeSantis might too. Dude is an absolute a-hole without Trump’s charism.
This. Any speculation about Biden running again in ‘24 is absolutely silly until after the midterms, because saying he’s not until then at a bare minimum would be absolutely asinine and torpedo any chances his party has to at least minimize the damage.
 
Feb 9, 2013
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T
Meh. People say that, then if you stack up options they don't want that, either. The desire for change is a constant in the electorate.
As I have said before, Biden, and Dems in general, need to do a better job in defining themselves, and in highlighting how unpopular GOP positions are.
Yeah, but “We’re not as bad as those guys” doesn’t work forever.
 

JupiterHawk

HR Legend
Jan 6, 2005
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If not Pete, I’m convinced the Dems need to find either a midwestern or southern candidate to counter the gop claim that the democrats are a coastal elite party.
Pete would probably lose a considerable amount of black votes but I think he would gain a substantial percentage of young voters.
 

onlyTheObvious

HR Heisman
Jan 3, 2021
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Biden’s only chance to win second term was Trump running again.

Dems have done a great job making sure that doesn’t happen.

fascination political theatre is going to play out after midterms. Ignoring the politics, if you are a fan of history it will be very unique period of America.
 

ConvenientParking

HR Legend
Gold Member
Jun 28, 2016
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I'm shocked at this after witnessing the administration's inspiring response to the inevitable overturning of Roe.
 

pepsicock

HR King
May 11, 2006
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5 miles from Willams Brice stadium
happy told you so GIF
 

ihhawk

HR Legend
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Feb 4, 2004
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She was my preference in ‘20 as well, but lacked name recognition.

it’s ironic to me that Biden is almost certain to lose in ‘24 if he ran again, but I firmly believe he’s the only one that could have won in ‘20 given the constraints the pandemic forced on campaigning.
Constraints? Trump was everywhere. Biden’s team chose a different route because people viewed him as a safe option to Trump and he had name recognition.

No other candidate could have taken that approach. They would have had to campaign
 

ihhawk

HR Legend
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Feb 4, 2004
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A couple of real Democrats in the Senate instead of Manchin and Sinema would mean Biden or whoever becomes the 2024 Dem nominee would have a strong legislative record to run on.

Sadly, they have little to show for their good intentions.
They saved the democrat party from themselves with their no vote on BBB. Inflation would be way higher today if that animal had passed.
 

swagsurfer02

HR King
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Dec 8, 2010
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I’ve said he needs to play the part until midterms and then announce he’s not running in 2024 to give the party plenty of time to come up with a legit field. Unfortunately, it can’t be Kamala either, which is a pretty lousy look for the current administration.

What’s interesting is that if R’s nominated someone like Liz Cheney (or Pence regrettably), they’d cruise in 2024. Nominating Trump will make it a fight. DeSantis might too. Dude is an absolute a-hole without Trump’s charism.

Im the opposite of you. There’s no reason why Kamala shouldn’t be the nominee unless even Dems don’t think she’s qualified for the job (which is a pickle because the primaries showed what they thought of her, but then folks turned around and thought she would be suitable to be VP even though she was behind an octogenarian).

I don’t think there is a snowball’s chance in hell of Liz Chaney winning the nomination. Pence has a better shot then her, but I think either Trump or DeSantis take the nomination. I don’t see DeSantis entering if Trump decides to run regardless of the New Hampshire poll that came out.

DeSantis is more likable than Trump, which means the “Never Trumpers” will vote for him but the staunch MAGAs may sit out….but I seriously doubt it because they are effected by inflation and high gas prices too.
 
Feb 9, 2013
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Im the opposite of you. There’s no reason why Kamala shouldn’t be the nominee unless even Dems don’t think she’s qualified for the job (which is a pickle because the primaries showed what they thought of her, but then folks turned around and thought she would be suitable to be VP even though she was behind an octogenarian).

I don’t think there is a snowball’s chance in hell of Liz Chaney winning the nomination. Pence has a better shot then her, but I think either Trump or DeSantis take the nomination. I don’t see DeSantis entering if Trump decides to run regardless of the New Hampshire poll that came out.

DeSantis is more likable than Trump, which means the “Never Trumpers” will vote for him but the staunch MAGAs may sit out….but I seriously doubt it because they are effected by inflation and high gas prices too.
After Trump, anyone could be considered qualified. The question is electability. Harris is not electable nationally. But ditch her and you open up a real can of worms. It’s a real dilemma.
 

swagsurfer02

HR King
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Dec 8, 2010
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After Trump, anyone could be considered qualified. The question is electability. Harris is not electable nationally. But ditch her and you open up a real can of worms. It’s a real dilemma.

Well I mean, If what you say is true about qualified than Kamala should be fine sitting in the seat. More experience than Trump had prior to 2016.

Your piece on electability is interesting. The public has gotten a full view of her now so name recognition isn’t going to be a factor. You’re hitting on the same thing I did with the dilemma portion, what if she is absolutely determined to be the first female POTUS. You’re stuck.
 

LuteHawk

HR Legend
Nov 30, 2011
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You can take it to the bank, neither Biden or Trump will
be a Presidential candidate in 2024. Liz Cheney is gaining
name recognition and could decide to run. The Democrats
lack a serious candidate at the present time.
 
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soybean

HR King
Sep 30, 2001
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I like Joe. I knew Joe would bring a sense of normalcy back to a fractured and wounded country. But I never saw him as anything thing more than a pause so we could catch or national breath. Joe has done his bit, he has served his country well...but know its time for him to enjoy some quiet time and let someone else take up the yoke. Who? I don't know for sure. But I do know that we have some big decisions coming up soon, and neither a Trump or a Biden will do this time.
 
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sober_teacher

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Constraints? Trump was everywhere. Biden’s team chose a different route because people viewed him as a safe option to Trump and he had name recognition.

No other candidate could have taken that approach. They would have had to campaign

Trumps campaign in 2020 was not remotely the same as what we saw in ‘16.
 
Nov 28, 2010
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Joe Biden turns 80 this November.

The Democrats need someone new.
Do people become less moral as they age?

As long as Biden can still remember where he left the nuclear football, I'll take him over any Republican - simply because his values will be much better, at any age.

That said, I don't expect him to run in 2024. I'm guessing most party folks know that he won't run.

Which is why we are seeing ads by Gavin Newsom attacking DeSantis. That would be an interesting race.

Which other potential Dem candidates have been upping their visibility? I don't watch the usual shows, but I did see Amy and Pete recently. Are they starting to campaign (unofficially)? That would be an interesting ticket. The "nice guys" against the angry theo-fascists.

On the R side, would Cheney be interested in the VP slot? I doubt it, but if the GOP wants to leave Trump behind, that could be a good choice.
 
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