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Next Season's Lineup? Predictions/Thoughts?

HawkFanatik

HR All-American
Oct 27, 2001
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I'm more of a casual wrestling fan, so I thought I'd see what the more seasoned wrestling fans on here think about next season's starting line-up. Should I be concerned that we are losing the bulk of our starting line-up? Do we have solid replacements waiting in the wings? Might we be aggressive in the transfer portal for some weights??
 
I'm more of a casual wrestling fan, so I thought I'd see what the more seasoned wrestling fans on here think about next season's starting line-up. Should I be concerned that we are losing the bulk of our starting line-up? Do we have solid replacements waiting in the wings? Might we be aggressive in the transfer portal for some weights??
125-Drake
133- Cullan
141- Wyatt
149- Mad Max
157- this ones a questions mark. Maybe Bertli Reyna maybe Caleb Rathjen. I’d lean towards Caleb now that he’s full time wrestling, if he can put on the weight.
165-PK
174-Nelson
184- Abe
197- JWar
285- Big Cass
 
I'm more of a casual wrestling fan, so I thought I'd see what the more seasoned wrestling fans on here think about next season's starting line-up. Should I be concerned that we are losing the bulk of our starting line-up? Do we have solid replacements waiting in the wings? Might we be aggressive in the transfer portal for some weights??

125-Ayala/Ybarra: Ybarra has to find some offense to be able to compete at this level. Ayala has it in spades.
133-Henson/Schriever-For both weights, it depends on how they shake out. Both guys are real solid low AA/RD of 12 threats
141-Henson/Schriever-See 133
149-Murin: His last year, should be a mid tier AA
157-Of all the weights, this one is a hole right now
165-Kennedy: Perhaps one of the toughest weight classes but Kennedy will immediately be a contender. Scores points in bunches...you' ll like him.
174-Nelson Brands
184-Assad/Wilson
197-Warner: Last year
HWY-Cass

It looks like we have a shot at 4 solid AA threats. That is our floor. It is really dependent on how 125-141 shake out on whether will be a solid top 5 or on the bubble. Outside of Kennedy and Cass, we don't have proven bonus point threats. Henson, Schriever and Ayala sure look the part but we'll see.
 
It’s really hard to speculate next year when there are so many variables we can’t control like other teams lineups. Heck Ayala could be a title favorite or could be fighting to just get on the podium next year. We don’t know at this point. Obviously we are going to have a drop off from this very highly ranked, highly decorated, Senior led team, but I am optimistic for the years to come.
 
Should learn a lot about some of these backups at the UNI open if UNI, Iowa State, Wisconsin and Minnesota send their starters. Minnesota dealing with covid currently so not sure on them.
 
a lot of question marks. high potential recruits who haven't done much wrestling at the college level yet. could burst on the scene and have success right away or (maybe more reasonably) be 2 years away from being back in contention.

157 is interesting. people on here like rathjen, but he wrestled off at 149 (and lost convincingly). do they look at the transfer portal for a stop gap until one of the youngsters emerge or just let it ride?
 
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125-Ayala/Ybarra: Ybarra has to find some offense to be able to compete at this level. Ayala has it in spades.
133-Henson/Schriever-For both weights, it depends on how they shake out. Both guys are real solid low AA/RD of 12 threats
141-Henson/Schriever-See 133
149-Murin: His last year, should be a mid tier AA
157-Of all the weights, this one is a hole right now
165-Kennedy: Perhaps one of the toughest weight classes but Kennedy will immediately be a contender. Scores points in bunches...you' ll like him.
174-Nelson Brands
184-Assad/Wilson
197-Warner: Last year
HWY-Cass

It looks like we have a shot at 4 solid AA threats. That is our floor. It is really dependent on how 125-141 shake out on whether will be a solid top 5 or on the bubble. Outside of Kennedy and Cass, we don't have proven bonus point threats. Henson, Schriever and Ayala sure look the part but we'll see.
Thought this line-up look curiously familiar. Closely scrutinizing the projected line-up for a second time, well good grief, it is more or less this year’s line-up?
 
a lot of question marks. high potential recruits who haven't done much wrestling at the college level yet. could burst on the scene and have success right away or (maybe more reasonably) be 2 years away from being back in contention.

157 is interesting. people on here like rathjen, but he wrestled off at 149 (and lost convincingly). do they look at the transfer portal for a stop gap until one of the youngsters emerge or just let it ride?
Definitely think we'll be hitting up the portal for a couple weights.
 
It will be a big drop off but PSU and Michigan have the same problem losing top guys.

Ayala and Kennedy should be solid players right away. Henson is a slight step down but has a high ceiling. Murin, brands, Assad, Warner and Cass will be solid senior leadership but probably won't contend for a title. Cass will put up bonus points though and probably score a good amount.

Looking at other line ups I think mizzou will actually be on an upward trajectory. They are young and will have mauller, otoole, elam(s) and others that will be tough for anyone to handle. The competitive landscape should be back to a "normal" feeling from the last several years of Penn state/Iowa/tOSU (not as recent) dominance.
 
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Thought this line-up look curiously familiar. Closely scrutinizing the projected line-up for a second time, well good grief, it is more or less this year’s line-up?
At minimum, even with next years starters filling in for 125 & 174 so far, you’re looking at 40% turnover. Reality is we’re looking at 60%.
 
It will be a big drop off but PSU and Michigan have the same problem losing top guys.

Ayala and Kennedy should be solid players right away. Henson is a slight step down but has a high ceiling. Murin, brands, Assad, Warner and Cass will be solid senior leadership but probably won't contend for a title. Cass will put up bonus points though and probably score a good amount.

Looking at other line ups I think mizzou will actually be on an upward trajectory. They are young and will have mauller, otoole, elam(s) and others that will be tough for anyone to handle. The competitive landscape should be back to a "normal" feeling from the last several years of Penn state/Iowa/tOSU (not as recent) dominance.
This^. Iowa is losing a lot of seniors next year but so is most of the big ten. Can’t tell you how excited I am for guys like Chad Red, Taylor Venz, Eric Schultz, Logan Massa, Stevan Micic, Myles Amine, Ryan Deakin, etc. to move on. Huge youth movement in the big ten next year.
 
It will be a big drop off but PSU and Michigan have the same problem losing top guys.

Ayala and Kennedy should be solid players right away. Henson is a slight step down but has a high ceiling. Murin, brands, Assad, Warner and Cass will be solid senior leadership but probably won't contend for a title. Cass will put up bonus points though and probably score a good amount.

Looking at other line ups I think mizzou will actually be on an upward trajectory. They are young and will have mauller, otoole, elam(s) and others that will be tough for anyone to handle. The competitive landscape should be back to a "normal" feeling from the last several years of Penn state/Iowa/tOSU (not as recent) dominance.
With no Gable or Parris Cass will most definitely be competing for a title next year.
 
Thought this line-up look curiously familiar. Closely scrutinizing the projected line-up for a second time, well good grief, it is more or less this year’s line-up?
I'm not sure if this is English or not, but I'll try based on what I think you said.

No it is not this year's lineup, even the one we're trotting out currently. There is no DeSanto, Eireman, Young or Marinelli for starters. That's 4 guys out of 10 weights. That's quite a bit of difference in my book, but to each his own..........

I'm pretty sure we have 6 Seniors in the lineup who will have exhausted their eligibility barring any medical redshirt possibilities this year. Lee, DeSanto, Eireman, Young, Marinelli and Kemerer. 60% gone.

We return Murin, Assad (Myles Wilson too, he will not be a returning starter by years end IMO), Warner and Cass. (And if Assad doesn't get his poop in a group he'll be replaced with a transfer along with a shaky 157 group in my view). I know this because Spooner says Brands has to replace iffy weights or he's not doing his job. 😏

Right now 157 and 184 are iffy as hell for next year barring an Assad resurgence (the guy that got pulled out of redshirt to replace Cash Wilcke).

I'm comfortable with Ayala, Schreiver, Henson, Murin, Kennedy, Brands, Warner and Cass (and Assad if he gets his shit together). That leaves 157 as a true weakness based on what we have to go on right now, that could change but looks a bit dicey as of today.

We'll be decent but not great most likely. The cupboard isn't bare. Time will tell.
 
So how many guys will/ should finish top 4 next year? I think Cass is the only lock out of the 10.
25- Ayala- should be good, but how good next year.
33- Schreiver- he scraps hard with Desanto, his length will be fun to see at this weight.
41- Henson- Wish he would have been in the higher division in the opens to see more
49- Murin- seems like his ceiling with his offense is 5th/6th
57- ? probably not much of an all american candidate either way
65- Kennedy- really tough weight. Think he should finish top 4 though.
74- Brands- He has to get a little more of his own offense. 5th/6th might be his ceiling
84- Assad- He lost to a high schooler this year. Does he go this year to get experience in the tourney.
97- Warner- He can finish anywhere from 3rd to 2-2. He is a conundrum.
285- Cass- He should finish top three with Parris and Kerkvliet.
 
Yeah with the cancelled season and the covid year there will be a lot of wrestlers finishing there careers this year. Lots of new faces all over the country next year.
 
Siebrecht, Reyna, Rathjen, McClimon and possibly Curano could wrestle off for 157. One of these guys could and should break out and make a leap to an be an AA guy within the next two seasons. There is a bunch of talent to fill that 157 spot, not every National champ has been a blue chip prospect. Get what you earn!
 
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Siebrecht, Reyna, Rathjen, McClimon and possibly Curano could wrestle off for 157. One of these guys could and should break out and make a leap to an be an AA guy within the next two seasons. There is a bunch of talent to fill that 157 spot, not every National champ has been a blue chip prospect. Get what you earn!
we used to do this all the time during the title drought era. the reality is that finding aa's is really hard and it's far more likely that none of these guys come close, especially in that timeframe. rathjen is probably the best bet based on pedigree. i don't love that none of them are actually wrestling at 157 right now. there is nobody on this roster at 157 currently that shouldn't be recruited over if the opportunity arises until proven otherwise.

murin and brands were very solid, tough guys who were ranked all last year. they wrestled to seed and contributed a combined 3 points (not counting murin's headgear spike). top end talent wins teams titles, not solid guys who develop into mid-ranked starters. the 20th best guy at a weight scores roughly the same as the 100th...zero.
 
Don’t think so:
2019- FR R12
2020 no tourney but eligibility year used-SOPH
2021 - 2nd , freebie year
2022- Jr this year
2023 senior next year
He does have a RS left so I suppose he could be around for the 2024 tourney if he desires.
you're right. i was including this year in my count, mostly thinking in terms of "how many tourney's does he have left?"
 
Siebrecht, Reyna, Rathjen, McClimon and possibly Curano could wrestle off for 157. One of these guys could and should break out and make a leap to an be an AA guy within the next two seasons. There is a bunch of talent to fill that 157 spot, not every National champ has been a blue chip prospect. Get what you earn!
All of them are a long long ways from a 157 AA at the moment.
 
you're right. i was including this year in my count, mostly thinking in terms of "how many tourney's does he have left?"
2020 counting against eligibility and 2021 not is a mindf#*#. And who knows who will or won’t use the 2021 eligibility down the line. Lots of unknowns.
 
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we used to do this all the time during the title drought era. the reality is that finding aa's is really hard and it's far more likely that none of these guys come close, especially in that timeframe. rathjen is probably the best bet based on pedigree. i don't love that none of them are actually wrestling at 157 right now. there is nobody on this roster at 157 currently that shouldn't be recruited over if the opportunity arises until proven otherwise.

murin and brands were very solid, tough guys who were ranked all last year. they wrestled to seed and contributed a combined 3 points (not counting murin's headgear spike). top end talent wins teams titles, not solid guys who develop into mid-ranked starters. the 20th best guy at a weight scores roughly the same as the 100th...zero.
This unfortunately for us next year. 1 Spencer scores more than three Youngs at NCAA'S. A team of 6 hammers/3rd or better and 4 rd. of 16 or worse (3 or 4 points between the 4) still scores 125 plus points and blows out a team with 10 solid wrestlers that none make the finals. 1 hammer scores more bonus points than a blood round guy scores for the whole tourney. Like it or not, those are the facts.
 
we used to do this all the time during the title drought era. the reality is that finding aa's is really hard and it's far more likely that none of these guys come close, especially in that timeframe. rathjen is probably the best bet based on pedigree. i don't love that none of them are actually wrestling at 157 right now. there is nobody on this roster at 157 currently that shouldn't be recruited over if the opportunity arises until proven otherwise.

murin and brands were very solid, tough guys who were ranked all last year. they wrestled to seed and contributed a combined 3 points (not counting murin's headgear spike). top end talent wins teams titles, not solid guys who develop into mid-ranked starters. the 20th best guy at a weight scores roughly the same as the 100th...zero.
Exactly, stars win titles. Look at Nebraska. Have had some really solids lineups, very good dual teams but not close to a title. Missouri would be another example to date. You need at least 4 guys scoring 20 plus points to even be in the discussion and another 40-50 points out of the rest. Guys like Brands and Murin need to take the next step. Even if you had all 10 guys score low to mid AA 10 points it's still not enough.
 
Exactly, stars win titles. Look at Nebraska. Have had some really solids lineups, very good dual teams but not close to a title. Missouri would be another example to date. You need at least 4 guys scoring 20 plus points to even be in the discussion and another 40-50 points out of the rest. Guys like Brands and Murin need to take the next step. Even if you had all 10 guys score low to mid AA 10 points it's still not enough.
PSU had 4 champs last year and didn’t win.
Just saying.
 
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PSU had 4 champs last year and didn’t win.
Just saying.
because iowa had 6 top 4 finishers and a 7th aa plus big bonus from lee, eierman, and kem. they had stars, bonus, and depth. psu had stars but no depth. only 2 low aa’s on top of their champs.

stars+depth beats stars alone but stars alone beats depth alone.

to put it in perspective, psu’s 4 champs from last year by themselves scored roughly the same as a team of 10 all american 6th place finishers
 
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PSU had 4 champs last year and didn’t win.
Just saying.
Ok, but they got little from the rest of the lineup Wich is why that lost. I said you needed the four 20+ guys to be in the discussion plus a bunch more from others.
 
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