NIT Here We Come
- Thread starter IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life
- Start date
We'll have the pre-lims out of the way soon and then it's back to the real grind. The BIG. Just hope we don't incur any more injuries.
JW played 18 min and RK played 12 min. JW had 1 PF and RK had 2. RK went to locker room and JW's min. were low. Hope they're ok.
In postgame, Fran said Kriener is fine and will be ready for Saturday. No word on Connor, although Connor stayed in the game after what looked like grabbing his chin.
Fran said that he liked the match up that Kriener brought on defense and was not pleased when he got hurt because he planned on playing RK down the stretch. Not sure if affected Wieskamp’s min, but I didn’t hear Joe’s names mentioned very much.
I liked what I saw from Joe on the defensive end. Settles had a lot of positives for Conner too.
We talk about Iowa being able to score, but we’ve been pounding it down low so much our outside game has become a bit erratic. I don’t know how we’ll shoot from outside when the d pressure ramps up in league play. Our 30 percent shooters are looking in form, but our 40 percenters are looking like 30 percent. If we can’t open up the inside with a consistent 3 ball, when we lose the big size advantages we’ve been enjoying W’s could be hard to find.
We talk about Iowa being able to score, but we’ve been pounding it down low so much our outside game has become a bit erratic. I don’t know how we’ll shoot from outside when the d pressure ramps up in league play. Our 30 percent shooters are looking in form, but our 40 percenters are looking like 30 percent. If we can’t open up the inside with a consistent 3 ball, when we lose the big size advantages we’ve been enjoying W’s could be hard to find.
I like what I see from Connor and Joe defensively as well. But I also like what I see from them on the offensive end as well, meaning their ability to drive to the rim and finish. As Joe has demonstrated so far, he's very capable of hitting from long range. When, and I say when JBo's long range jumper gets consistent, then that will relieve pressure to get the ball inside more often. Joe will get more deep looks if Fran can increase his minutes.
I thought some of my posts were stupid... but this tops the cake .
So we hold W. Carolina to 60 points and we basically trade buckets in the second half after dominating the game for the entire first half and rotate players in and out experimenting different rotations and still win by 20 and we are going to NIT.
What a stupid conclusion is that ?
Did you want us to play the second half at full throttle with our starters in
when the game was obviously in hand just do we could win by 30 or 40... how stupid is that
"I thought some of my posts were stupid"
Join the club. It now makes it unanimous, the rest of us have thought your posts have been stupid for a while.
Join the club. It now makes it unanimous, the rest of us have thought your posts have been stupid for a while.
At a certain point, you just have to take the win and not draw any big conclusions.
Iowa beat a crappy team by 20.....right after finals week and right before a holiday. So they didnt beat them by 50, that is ok.
Iowa beat a crappy team by 20.....right after finals week and right before a holiday. So they didnt beat them by 50, that is ok.
The defense was completely different when they played Cook at the 5, Baer at 4 and switched screens.
It's so much more effective and drives me nuts that Fran wont stick with it.
The only thing that would be concerning, and signal the Tourney is out of the picture, would be if they lost to one of these terrible teams.
I remain skeptical that they can get to .500 in league play. That will be the tough road ahead. But far from impossible.
They just can't fall asleep in the two remaining games against the cannon fodder. Win by 10+, 20+, 30+ or 40+; doesn't matter.
I remain skeptical that they can get to .500 in league play. That will be the tough road ahead. But far from impossible.
They just can't fall asleep in the two remaining games against the cannon fodder. Win by 10+, 20+, 30+ or 40+; doesn't matter.
If Iowa isn't .500 in B1G play, they probably don't get a tourney invite. Especially because many of the non-conference wins would be a joke.
It depends upon who the wins and losses are to, and what the other bubble teams do. If Iowa State and Oregon both start winning a lot with their players back, that will make Iowa's wins over those teams look better and better. And the fact there are no flat-out terrible teams in the Big 10 means Iowa won't have losses equivalent to a Campbell or a Nebraska-Omaha in previous years.
9-11 could easily get Iowa in, as to get to 9 wins Iowa would have to beat a number of Top 50-75 teams to do that.
I agree it is way more effective but I don’t think many conclusions can be drawn from him not using it more in this game. Fran has shown he will use that line-up down the stretch and did so in New York and other big games. I view it more that Fran will use this game and the next two to experiment more and try some different things. He already knows he has something good defensively with that line-up. What’s more important, beating these 3 teams by 40 instead of 20 or trying different match-ups, rotations, etc?
It was a decisive win and no one got seriously injured. Why play guys big minutes, when you are ahead by 20 most of the game? Only thing to be unhappy about is the scheduling that gives the team very little prep for the rest of the B1G in the last three non-conference games.
What a terrible take on last nites game. Midweek, right after finals, know that teammate is not coming back, against a bad team they should beat handily and 2nd half gave up some easy baskets with backups in. They may not make the big dance but last nites game is not the indicator OP is suggesting.
I don't know about easily, but that's where I was going.
I think .500 in the league, assuming they beat the two remaining noncon turds, gets them into the tourney. I'm still not convinced they can get to .500.
Getting in with 9, or even 8, conference wins could get them in. It would require additional pieces to fall their way.
I don't think 10 league wins by itself is a magic number. But it appears to be a reasonable threshold in that above .500 is highly likely for a bid.
I think you're ultimately correct, but I'd simply say the team gets nothing from playing that game. If anything, it lulls them into thinking they're better than they are. The defense is still very sloppy and I don't see the team taking "pride" in it like I constantly read.
9-11 gets us in as long as we don’t lose to Illinois/Rutgers. 5 teams below .500 in conference play made it last year, including Alabama who lost to 2 100+ teams in the non conference.
I hope so. But I worry because if we're 9-11 or even 10-10 there will be other teams in comparison with us for those precious last slots. So we better really hope that Iowa State, Oregon, and UConn go on to win a lot of games? Otherwise the schedule is going to be used against us.
Too early to know what it will take, but 10-10 with the non-conference success of the B1G seem very likely, especially if we can add a win or two the the B1G tourney.
Without any scientific method of any kind, here's the exercise I just went through. I looked at the remaining 18 B1G games and based on location of the game, record to date, and record against top 25 to date, I roughly estimated the Hawks' chances in each contest. I used increments of 10% to keep the math simple. So, for example, I have the game at Purdue being a 50-50 and then the game vs Nebraska as 60-40. Just using those two, I would have 1.1 wins and 0.9 losses. Following this simplistic method through the rest of the season I get 8.8 wins and 11.2 losses.
Kenpom has us at 9-11 so you’re right on the mark. He also has 15 of Iowa’s 18 remaining games as 6 point margins or less. So, Iowa needs to go 8-7 in the 15 “toss up” games, win the 1 against Illinois, and probably lose the other two. That’s 9-11 overall. So it comes down to who they beat to get to those 9. I would guess, with 9 wins, that Iowa would have 8 1-50 Kenpom wins and no 100+ losses this year. Looking at similar resumes last year that would put Iowa in the 8-10 seed range.
Of the remaining 18 games, I had 7 of them as either 20% or less chance of winning (vs MSU, vs Mich, at Indiana, at OSU) or 80% or higher chance of winning (vs Illinois, vs Northwestern, vs Rutgers)
So yeah, I think I broadly agree with that as well, but Kenpom would be a lot more educated about the league in general than I would be.
A slight correction on an error on my part. 15 toss up games, 2 where we are expected to win by 10, and 1 @ Wisconsin where the margin is set at 8. Obviously a lot can change with these numbers but it looks at least promising for a potential tournament berth.
Geez just relax.. I can guarantee you one thing... we will lose some home games and win some road games ... we might lose to Illinois and then beat Michigan...
It will be a struggle every night...
But if Iowa can finish in the top 7 regardless of where their record is they will be in the NCAA.
It will be a struggle every night...
But if Iowa can finish in the top 7 regardless of where their record is they will be in the NCAA.
10 points under their average. Incredible defense. Final 4 here we come!
January consists of Purdue, Northwestern, Nebraska, Ohio State, Penn State, Illinois, Michigan State and Minnesota. 0-2 entering the Purdue game I think Iowa has to go 6-2 and no worse than 5-3 in this stretch. Starting February with Michigan and Indiana is not good. Can Iowa pull two upsets and win their share of the 50-50 games against NW, IL, Rutgers and PSU?
Would love 6-2 and shut a few folks up around here. Don't think NW, ILL, Rutgers and/or PSU are 50/50 for us. We should be favored in all of those games, even on the road.
Just for giggles, here's how I had those games in my own stupid analysis:
at NW 50%
at PSU 40%
vs ILL 90%
vs NW 80%
at RUT 70%
vs RUT 90%
So I have us going 4.2 - 1.8 in those six games. Some may wonder why I have a lesser chance at PSU than I do at NW, and the reason is to date PSU is 1-1 against AP top 25 teams and 1-0 against USA Today top 25 teams. NW is 0-1 against top 25 teams in either poll. Again, no "science" or whatever to my percentages, just saying...
Unfortunately it doesn’t always work out that way.
Right now we are projected to be 2 point dogs at NW/PSU and 3 point favorites at Rutgers although that will probably change by the time ten games are
played. Pretty near every darn game is projected to be a battle this year in the B1G.
That we are underdogs at NW and PSU is amazing to me but I like it in that nobody is taking us seriously yet and the longer we can stay under the radar and keep winning, the better
Metrics love the B1G this year. 11 teams in the top 50 on kenpom and Rutgers being the worst at 109.
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