# of Top 5 ranked HS wrestlers..

[Ihawkd9times]

Well if two high schools both had 15 person basketball teams, and one school had 2,000 students and the other had 200 students wouldn't the percentages be strongly favor of the larger school having the best 15 players? We are not picking randomly, it's competitive!

That's not the most important number. The most important stat is the size of the pool that's feeding the wrestling spots availble. Large population states simply have more candidates to choose from. If California and Wyoming each had a high school participation number of 2,500 wrestlers, according to your theory they should have equal quality. That's absolutely incorrect because percentage of high quality wrestlers increases in proportion to the size of the pool.

I get the difference of a basketball team has a set roster and 15 kids from WDM Valley isn't the same as Lisbon. But how does that apply to wrestling or even football. Cant as many kids at valley be on the wrestling team as they want but the can only start so many. Not sure if ever heard of a kid getting cut in tryouts of wrestling?

 

[wasdt21]

chuckles really put his foot in his mouth that time

 

[wasdt21]

mr. mejia I want to apologize for our penn. st. posters, their inferiority complex makes them cut down on others.

 

[Herkuleez5]

He probably doesn't speak Clown.

He speaks a form of Clown Chief, it's called Ass Clown used commonly by PSU trolls. I don't have shit for likes but this douche has posted over 4500 times with 28 likes?

 

[Lion8286]

mr. mejia I want to apologize for our penn. st. posters, their inferiority complex makes them cut down on others.

Mr. Meja is just all butthurt that Penn State didn't show all that much interest in his son. His son's not Hall, Suriano, or Manville but he's not bad for Iowa.

 

[Azchief32]

Mr. Meja is just all butthurt that Penn State didn't show all that much interest in his son. His son's not Hall, Suriano, or Manville but he's not bad for Iowa.

You do know that Meija verbaled to Iowa a lonnng time ago, right? But then we already have the guy that beat Manville.

 

[wasdt21]

a clown and a joke all in one,sure hope you come to bigs I will be asking around for you.

 

[Jackhawk87]

I'm sure he got more money at Penn than iowa trust me he did and that why they got him

Hopefully it is just because we have the lower weights pretty much covered with Wagner, Renteria and that stud (am I allowed to use that word around here) Mejia (and Lee, fingers crossed) coming in. Hopefully TnT are offering equal or better deals compared to other teams to guys like Nolf and Hall that are at greater need weights.

 

[Kwoodhawk]

Mr. Meja is just all butthurt that Penn State didn't show all that much interest in his son. His son's not Hall, Suriano, or Manville but he's not bad for Iowa.

If Carl ever saw what some of you PSU "fans" post here on our board.

 

[MitchL]

a clown and a joke all in one,sure hope you come to bigs I will be asking around for you.

Pretty sure his PO won't allow him to leave the State. The ankle bracelet thingy is there for a reason.

 

[Mattski]

I don't necessarily agree that there is a huge difference between top 10 and top 20 kids if you are looking at a recruiting class. In weight class rankings, yes, but not overall.

2010 Class
#14 McMullan
#15 Ness
#19 Telford

2011 Class
#15 Dieringer
#16 Green
#18 Gwiazdowski

2012
#11 Realbuto
#13 Richards
#14 Crutchmer
#16 Gilman
#20 Brooks

2013
#12 Clagon
#13 Heil
#19 Abounader

2014
#12 Cortez
#13 Rogers
#14 Stoll
#18 Micic

2015
#11 Hayes
#15 Thomsen
#17 McFadden
#20 Stroker

I was just cherrypicking a few guys, obviously there are some who don't pan out, as well as top 10 recruits who don't pan out. But In my humble opinion, I think any top 25 overall recruit is a very solid get, and the path to building a championship team. In any individual year you could have multiple guys at the same weight class all in the top 10, so maybe someone who is #1 in his weight class, but viewed as a 'weaker' weight by the rankers gets put into the 10-25 range, when he is a bona-fide stud. Obviously most of the studs who are going to be multiple time champs are probably going to be a top 10 recruit, but not always, Ie. Dieringer, Gwiz, Gilman..

Maybe not top 10 but the OP is talking top 5, and I'm talking top 5 nationally, not at their weights. We need to be consistently getting at least 1 of those kids per class. They won't all pan out but I'll take my chances with 1 per class even if it takes a full ride each yr.
I think we're starting to adapt to this to an extent. As noted, Kem is from PA and we've got Marinelli coming from OH. I'm excited as heck about both and I think the staff knows we can't live on iowa talent alone.

 

[MitchL]

Maybe not top 10 but the OP is talking top 5, and I'm talking top 5 nationally, not at their weights. We need to be consistently getting at least 1 of those kids per class. They won't all pan out but I'll take my chances with 1 per class even if it takes a full ride each yr.
I think we're starting to adapt to this to an extent. As noted, Kem is from PA and we've got Marinelli coming from OH. I'm excited as heck about both and I think the staff knows we can't live on iowa talent alone.

Excellent points. Iowa high schools just aren't producing highly rated national kids. We need to look no further than what has doomed the Gophers. The Gophs have basically a home grown lineup. Next year they have Stroker and Lizak in the lineup, their only out-of-Staters. The elite talent is concentrated in the obvious States.

While Iowa has nabbed Kem and AlexM, the Hawks need more of that level elite guys.

 

[Brandsfan]

I want them all at Iowa, but I doubt there's a national champion from that group.

Never wanted to guess on a kids future success, but I think you are wrong. Thomsen is special!

 

[Azchief32]

Never wanted to guess on a kids future success, but I think you are wrong. Thomsen is special!

As I watched the three match set up in the finals, it's funny how your eyes naturally move to the kids that are talent. Alex was one of those. Even though Brands didn't kill his guy, he was as well along with a few others. West is not a turd and Thomsen ran him out of the building.

 

[Brandsfan]

As I watched the three match set up in the finals, it's funny how your eyes naturally move to the kids that are talent. Alex was one of those. Even though Brands didn't kill his guy, he was as well along with a few others. West is not turd and Thomsen ran him out of the building.

You are right Az, funny how you "find" those guys in the tourney. Remember watching all of Nelson's matches. He was relentless! Scored 6 pts in the third on Barnes, and absolutely dominated the kid in the semi's.

 

[Golic55]

Mr. Meja is just all butthurt that Penn State didn't show all that much interest in his son. His son's not Hall, Suriano, or Manville but he's not bad for Iowa.

Please permanently ban this sissy.

 

[moosemonster]

Thomsen looked great. I want him locked up. But small school Iowa 100 pound competition means next to nothing for predicting future NCAA champions.

 

[Brandsfan]

Thomsen looked great. I want him locked up. But small school Iowa 100 pound competition means next to nothing for predicting future NCAA champions.

Moose, with all respect ... what does? Nothing. 3A, 2A, 1A ... all just represent the school size the kid is at. Even being a 4 timer doesn't quantify into being an NCAA champ, All-American or anything. I was going through the 3 time list this year, a case can be made that they have better college success.
I was just pointing out a personal opinion.
The West boys have competed in national tournaments. To my knowledge, Thomsen hadn't until this past year.? I may well be wrong. But, I know what I see in him. And to me, he is different. I hope Iowa can sign him, and we will get to see what he is capable of.
Fields is a prime example of "predicting". He was a beast in high school, ranked #1. That didn't translate to college success. Would be great if it was easy, but it isn't.

 

[Mattski]

Thomsen is a future stud. Reminds me a lot of Sorensen in high school though he's probably stronger than brandon was as a soph.

 

[pinters]

Mr. Meja is just all butthurt that Penn State didn't show all that much interest in his son. His son's not Hall, Suriano, or Manville but he's not bad for Iowa.

Is Carls D not tasting so good?

 

[Omahahawk86]

Thomsen looked great. I want him locked up. But small school Iowa 100 pound competition means next to nothing for predicting future NCAA champions.

Alex does just fine competing outside of Iowa. He lost a heartbreaker in the finals at Fargo. He was also a hair away from making the finals at super 32. He's a stud in any state.

 

[Jaybird319]

I get the difference of a basketball team has a set roster and 15 kids from WDM Valley isn't the same as Lisbon. But how does that apply to wrestling or even football. Cant as many kids at valley be on the wrestling team as they want but the can only start so many. Not sure if ever heard of a kid getting cut in tryouts of wrestling?

Having wrestle in large (3k+) and small(300) school there's a large difference between the quality of rooms for the most part.

This whole number game is much more apparent in elementary and middle school programs feeding a large HS. The numbers are huge and wrestlers leaving through attrition happens quickly between 7-9th grades. When people use HS "participation numbers" to justified their side of argument, they conveniently choose not to discuss feeder numbers.

In my experience the smaller school had a higher retention of youth wrestlers vs large school. But then again they have a smaller pool to retain in the first place and have more need to matriculate wrestlers into HS vs larger schools

Now all of this isn't to say small schools can't produce... Just more indicative of large population states vs less populated talent pool .

 

[rossel 33]

I don't necessarily agree that there is a huge difference between top 10 and top 20 kids if you are looking at a recruiting class. In weight class rankings, yes, but not overall.

2010 Class
#14 McMullan
#15 Ness
#19 Telford

2011 Class
#15 Dieringer
#16 Green
#18 Gwiazdowski

2012
#11 Realbuto
#13 Richards
#14 Crutchmer
#16 Gilman
#20 Brooks

2013
#12 Clagon
#13 Heil
#19 Abounader

2014
#12 Cortez
#13 Rogers
#14 Stoll
#18 Micic

2015
#11 Hayes
#15 Thomsen
#17 McFadden
#20 Stroker

I was just cherrypicking a few guys, obviously there are some who don't pan out, as well as top 10 recruits who don't pan out. But In my humble opinion, I think any top 25 overall recruit is a very solid get, and the path to building a championship team. In any individual year you could have multiple guys at the same weight class all in the top 10, so maybe someone who is #1 in his weight class, but viewed as a 'weaker' weight by the rankers gets put into the 10-25 range, when he is a bona-fide stud. Obviously most of the studs who are going to be multiple time champs are probably going to be a top 10 recruit, but not always, Ie. Dieringer, Gwiz, Gilman..

-------

I agree that any top 25 overall recruit is a very good get, and there are certainly guys ranked outside of that group or even between 50-100 that can surprise folks and do well.

But still.... just talking probabilities... guys that are top 5 or 10 just increase the likelihood of success.

Out of all the guys you listed, all ranked between #11 and 20, there were a total of 5 ncaa titles won (1 Ness, 2 Dieringer, 2 Gwiaz).

If one looks at those same years and see who was ranked between #1 and 10, you find Logan Stieber (4 titles), Tsirtsis 1, Tomasello 1, Martinez 1, plus a World champ (Snyder).

Add to that a slew of guys who are currently considered the favorites to win a title this year, including Nolf (#4), Nickal (#7), Retherford (#3), and McIntosh (#1). And there's still more.... guys very highly ranked, possibly finalists, including Bo Jordan, Micah Jordan, McKenna, Snyder, Cox, Ashnault, Coon and a few others.

While there are always exceptions, in general, the higher decile outperforms the lower. Top 10 p4p is generally where you find a Stieber, Taylor, Metcalf, Ruth.... the guys that over their careers give a team plenty of points in March.

 

[rossel 33]

I'm not following that logic. The more participants, the more kids you have who will be quality wrestlers. If California and Wyoming both had 2500 wrestlers, I don't understand why you would expect one of them to have more quality wrestlers, simply based on state population. I would think two states with the same number of wrestlers would have a similar number of good wrestlers, until you get to intangibles -- tradition of wrestling in the state, proximity to high quality coaches, etc. Based strictly on metrics I don't get your argument.

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Pablow is correct. A larger population supplying the pipeline of potential wrestlers will generally do better than a small one.

The intelligence and athletic abilities in a population are distributed in a bell curve. In the state of Iowa, CA, or any state, there will be kids at the extreme ends of the curve. The pool of extremely fast, athletic or strong kids, maybe 1 or 2% of the population, the ones making potentially good wrestlers, would be far more numerous in CA with 12x the population of Iowa.

The culture is the other part of the equation, which Iowa has excelled in for years, allowing them to be competitive,

But still, if Iowa is going to be winning titles, we have to seek the best HS talent from all over the USA. If there is a blue ribbon recruit, an absolute consensus talent, they should be offered a full ride, imho.

 

[rossel 33]

Jay's dad... thanks for your contributions and speaking of great talent. You must be very proud of what your son has accomplished. He looks to have a bright future.

There are idiots who post on every forum as you've undoubtedly seen. We seem to have a few obnoxious azzes from PSU lately. Most regulars on this board are Iowa fans and decent folks and like hearing any info on how Jay is doing.

 

[artradley]

----
Pablow is correct. A larger population supplying the pipeline of potential wrestlers will generally do better than a small one.

The intelligence and athletic abilities in a population are distributed in a bell curve. In the state of Iowa, CA, or any state, there will be kids at the extreme ends of the curve. The pool of extremely fast, athletic or strong kids, maybe 1 or 2% of the population, the ones making potentially good wrestlers, would be far more numerous in CA with 12x the population of Iowa.

The culture is the other part of the equation, which Iowa has excelled in for years, allowing them to be competitive,

But still, if Iowa is going to be winning titles, we have to seek the best HS talent from all over the USA. If there is a blue ribbon recruit, an absolute consensus talent, they should be offered a full ride, imho.

I guess the problem is that if a state as populous as California only had 2500 wrestlers (in this hypothetical example), it would be pretty clear that people in California just don't care about wrestling, and so I wouldn't see any reason to expect the talent of those 2500 wrestlers to be higher than any other state with 2500 wrestlers. The participation number is an indication of the interest level in the state -- which will also dictate how many good athletes go out for the teams.

Things that work at a micro level don't always apply at a macro level. Yes, a large school fielding a basketball team will usually have a more talented team than a small school -- because in both cases you can be pretty certain that the best 15 basketball players in the school are on the team. But across an entire state, if wrestling is not a popular sport, it's likely / inevitable that the wrestling participants in no way reflect the best athletes in that state.

Put it this way, if you sort the states by total population, then sort them by number of wrestlers, which one would have the greatest correlation to the talent level? I'm pretty sure it would be the listed sorted by number of wrestlers.

 

[artradley]

-------

I agree that any top 25 overall recruit is a very good get, and there are certainly guys ranked outside of that group or even between 50-100 that can surprise folks and do well.

But still.... just talking probabilities... guys that are top 5 or 10 just increase the likelihood of success.

Out of all the guys you listed, all ranked between #11 and 20, there were a total of 5 ncaa titles won (1 Ness, 2 Dieringer, 2 Gwiaz).

If one looks at those same years and see who was ranked between #1 and 10, you find Logan Stieber (4 titles), Tsirtsis 1, Tomasello 1, Martinez 1, plus a World champ (Snyder).

Add to that a slew of guys who are currently considered the favorites to win a title this year, including Nolf (#4), Nickal (#7), Retherford (#3), and McIntosh (#1). And there's still more.... guys very highly ranked, possibly finalists, including Bo Jordan, Micah Jordan, McKenna, Snyder, Cox, Ashnault, Coon and a few others.

While there are always exceptions, in general, the higher decile outperforms the lower. Top 10 p4p is generally where you find a Stieber, Taylor, Metcalf, Ruth.... the guys that over their careers give a team plenty of points in March.

Correct. As the saying goes, "The race does not always go to swiftest, or the battle to the strongest. But that's where the smart money is."

 

[Ihawkd9times]

I guess the problem is that if a state as populous as California only had 2500 wrestlers (in this hypothetical example), it would be pretty clear that people in California just don't care about wrestling, and so I wouldn't see any reason to expect the talent of those 2500 wrestlers to be higher than any other state with 2500 wrestlers. The participation number is an indication of the interest level in the state -- which will also dictate how many good athletes go out for the teams.

Things that work at a micro level don't always apply at a macro level. Yes, a large school fielding a basketball team will usually have a more talented team than a small school -- because in both cases you can be pretty certain that the best 15 basketball players in the school are on the team. But across an entire state, if wrestling is not a popular sport, it's likely / inevitable that the wrestling participants in no way reflect the best athletes in that state.

Put it this way, if you sort the states by total population, then sort them by number of wrestlers, which one would have the greatest correlation to the talent level? I'm pretty sure it would be the listed sorted by number of wrestlers.

Im kind of with you on this. The numbers you posted of High school wrestling participants means every kid in PA that wants to go out for wrestling is on the team, regardless of ability. Ive never heard of HS wrestling teams have roster limitations like say Basketball and baseball do. Numbers in wrestling are true numbers. Sure PA and CA have more kids so I get that quality aspect for basketball due to tryouts weeding out bad participants. But wrestling doesn't cut kids you cant assume kids are not going out should be factored in.

What I do agree with is the culture of the state and maybe the JR highs weed kids out play a slight factor but comparing Basketball teams to wrestling teams is apples and oranges. I get that WDM Valley and Wilton could both have 50 kids on the wrestling team but its likely Valley has the better quality in that 50, but its still 50. I do agree 3A is typically better due to this but I don't agree that's a strong argument to play against PA or CA population numbers.

My original point was a bunch of inner city high school kids in the PHiladelphia school system who never wrestle a day in their life are totally messing up the true numbers of the blue collar rural western PA and it is. PA has its advantages but its not as severe as you make it out with just raw population numbers. The sad reality is the PA club team and a few of its provate schools like Wyoming Seminary or a public like Franklin regional just have better wrestlers. I think what we don't want to hear is PA is coaching the kids up better in youth programs and their mat awerness is so much better. Iowa kids seems like a takedown and cut feel to them while PA kids seems to grasp but also superior in back points. That's whay we don't seem to have many turn type guys on Iowa right now. Clark is the galaring exception but Sorenson is more the prototypical Iowa kid at this time.

 

[artradley]

Im kind of with you on this. The numbers you posted of High school wrestling participants means every kid in PA that wants to go out for wrestling is on the team, regardless of ability. Ive never heard of HS wrestling teams have roster limitations like say Basketball and baseball do. Numbers in wrestling are true numbers. Sure PA and CA have more kids so I get that quality aspect for basketball due to tryouts weeding out bad participants. But wrestling doesn't cut kids you cant assume kids are not going out should be factored in.

What I do agree with is the culture of the state and maybe the JR highs weed kids out play a slight factor but comparing Basketball teams to wrestling teams is apples and oranges. I get that WDM Valley and Wilton could both have 50 kids on the wrestling team but its likely Valley has the better quality in that 50, but its still 50. I do agree 3A is typically better due to this but I don't agree that's a strong argument to play against PA or CA population numbers.

My original point was a bunch of inner city high school kids in the PHiladelphia school system who never wrestle a day in their life are totally messing up the true numbers of the blue collar rural western PA and it is. PA has its advantages but its not as severe as you make it out with just raw population numbers. The sad reality is the PA club team and a few of its provate schools like Wyoming Seminary or a public like Franklin regional just have better wrestlers. I think what we don't want to hear is PA is coaching the kids up better in youth programs and their mat awerness is so much better. Iowa kids seems like a takedown and cut feel to them while PA kids seems to grasp but also superior in back points. That's whay we don't seem to have many turn type guys on Iowa right now. Clark is the galaring exception but Sorenson is more the prototypical Iowa kid at this time.

You might be confusing my posts with somebody else's, because I don't see any real points of disagreement. I think the number of participants in a state is more important that the state population. Your example of Philadelphia is correct; while BTS is hopefully changing things, Philadelphia adds a big chunk to PA's population but, because a lot of schools don't have wrestling teams or have tiny rosters, they don't add to the quality of wrestling and don't add proportionately to the number of total wrestlers. I also don't think, as you mention, they necessarily do a better job "coaching the kids up" at the Junior level. My argument is this: PA has as much of a wrestling culture as Iowa, but 50% more kids wrestling. So they're going to have more quality wrestlers. And when you combine the fact that NJ and NY are right next door -- with pretty decent wrestling cultures and very big numbers, Cael's future recruiting is a lot less challenging than Iowa's.

I'm also curious if, based on the numbers of top kids around the country, the culture in Iowa is subsiding a bit. I haven't lived in Iowa in a long time, so I don't know. But the talent level difference between PA and IA seems to be a lot larger than I would expect. Also, when I checked around for wrestling clubs -- which are imo what is driving the top kids -- I didn't find too many in Iowa. What percentage of kids in Iowa are wrestling year-round at clubs? Any idea?

 

[redghost1974]

Fields is a prime example of "predicting". He was a beast in high school, ranked #1. That didn't translate to college success. Would be great if it was easy, but it isn't.

To be fair, Fields probably would have been a multiple finalist if not champ if he hadn't been injured by Konrad his TRUE freshman year. That was the tail end of Z's years where he used his true frosh to try and bolster the team. T-shirt and Fields were the two biggest recruits that under performed, but Fields was never the same after the injury.

 

[championhawk]

Come on bro Really if your reading the trend u would know what I am talking about if u don't understand what I'm talking about u shouldn't reply

He's a Penn State fan so don't expect good conversation.

 

[vanhawkman]

Mr. Meja is just all butthurt that Penn State didn't show all that much interest in his son. His son's not Hall, Suriano, or Manville but he's not bad for Iowa.

Wow, real classy there bud. Show your school colors really well

 

[vanhawkman]

And to be fair, we do have some PSU fans that do contribute some great talk here on this forum, just want to make that clear.

 

[Azchief32]

Having wrestle in large (3k+) and small(300) school there's a large difference between the quality of rooms for the most part.

This whole number game is much more apparent in elementary and middle school programs feeding a large HS. The numbers are huge and wrestlers leaving through attrition happens quickly between 7-9th grades. When people use HS "participation numbers" to justified their side of argument, they conveniently choose not to discuss feeder numbers.

In my experience the smaller school had a higher retention of youth wrestlers vs large school. But then again they have a smaller pool to retain in the first place and have more need to matriculate wrestlers into HS vs larger schools

Now all of this isn't to say small schools can't produce... Just more indicative of large population states vs less populated talent pool .

This. I went from a school of around 300 in Illinois to one of the largest schools in Missouri my sophomore year. My weight was five deep and we had close to 60 guys in the room. Enough for a Varsity, JV and Freshman team.