****Official Cubs 2015 Thread****
- Thread starter dgordo
- Start date
I do. Of course, it would depend what you mean by centerpiece and there would have to be a lot of similar rated prospects going along with him to get him. Oh wait, this is RAJ who thinks he's getting Bryant, Baez, and Soler for Hamels. Scratch the earlier trade recommendation. Another GM and I think you could come up with an acceptable package with Vogs being a major piece.
I am happy that Vogs is hitting the snot out of the ball and hope he keeps it up. This will help his trade value and might help the Cubs in a deal for another pitcher or position player. Vogs would probably be paired with someone like McKinney, Almora, or one of the young pitchers in order to get a good pitcher back in return.
They could elect to keep Vogs since it's highly probable the NL will adopt the DH rule in the next CBA (2017). Maybe the owners give in on the DH in exchange for an international draft?
The Phills are gonna have to eat 0 dollars of that contract. Five years 90 for an ace. That's a steal.
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and those guys are better prospects than Vogs, which by definition, would not make him the centerpiece.
I don't think that would be enough from the Phillies perspective. They'll want something stupid, like Bryant/Russell/Soler.
And I wouldn't trade for Hamels because Vogelbach is the perfect DH for when the NL adds it in a year or two.
Meh, I understand what you are saying but don't really agree. In the trade of Bowa for DeJesus, Bowa might have been the more established player but Greene doesn't make the trade if he doesn't get Ryno. You might say for Dallas he was the centerpiece of the trade. Just because ranking services have players ranked in a certain order doesn't mean the Phils (or some other team) don't covet a player lower on the list. For example, maybe they love the pitchers the Cubs drafted last year (Cease, Steele and Sands) and if included 2 of them, with a Zagunis, Hanneman (who's stock is rising), you could put together a package. Hell, Torres was rated below Vogs last year (now he's rated in the top 10), but there were teams who would have jumped at the chance to get Torres in a trade.
I'm not saying Philly would do a deal with Vogs as the key piece, because they've stated they want a couple blue chip recruits who are near major league ready (probably guys in AAA). However, could a Hamels type pitcher be had with Vogs as a key piece in a trade with another team? It's possible, but probably unlikely. Vogs would probably more likely as a key piece for a pitcher whose contract ends at the end of the season.
They don't have to eat a dime of the contract, however, if they want to maximize their return on prospects they'll have to eat some money. Hamels is owed $101M(115 if his option vests). That's hardly cheap for a guy who's 31 years old and is showing some signs of decline. He is not an ace. Still a very good pitcher but not in the elite class. He's benefited from pitching against some god awful offenses in the NL east (could an all star team of NYM, Marlins, and Atlanta featured a lineup that would have scored any runs last year?)., and pitcher friendly parks.
Here's a really good Fangraphs article on Hamels. It's basically buyer beware. He's still a very good pitcher but no longer an ace and there are some concerning signs in his game. When you factor in the dollars left on the contract, you don't also want to pony up your best prospects. Like I said, if the Phils want to maximize their return they will eat some money. If they just want to get rid of the money, they'll still get good prospects but not as great a haul.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/two-pitchers-overrated-by-both-era-and-fip/
At minimum he's owed $100M, but it could be $114M. He's owed $94M thru 2018. The team owes him $20 in 2019 or a buyout of $6M. He has a vested option of $24M if he reaches so many innings in 2017-2018.
It's not a bad contract if you are only paying the price of the contract. However, it's not a bargain if you are paying the contract and paying in prospects. I'd rather the Cubs just paid the money in the offseason. They'll have multiple guys to chose from. Yes, the price in salary will be higher but they won't have to give up a prospect (it's possible they could lose a first round pick, which isn't as big a deal this year as the Cubs plan to go wild spending in the international FA market this summer).
I saw this and it makes sense. It sounds like MLB is willing to make some concessions on other things to get MLBPA to agree with an Int'l draft instead of the FA signings as they currently are. If that is true, this might be the Cubs last chance to make a big splash on the Int'l market. Next year might be a possibility, but I'm not sure when the CBA is redone, I just know it's sometime in 2016.
It also sounds like DH in the NL will be on the table as well. Maybe that will be the exchange for the Int'l draft. I hope so, it's long overdue.
The Phillies are desperate for salary relief, and everyone knows it. They can start any trade negotiations asking for Vogelbach, Russell, Soler, Torres, Jimenez, and any other package they care to fantasize about. What they get will be much smaller because of the huge amount of money the other team is picking up. I absolutely thing Vogelbach can be a central part to a deal. Not the only piece, however. The Phillies will want several things back. Prospects, and MLB players. Here's where I could see Travis Wood and Wellington Castillo as part of a deal. Amaro is on thin ice as the GM in Philadelphia. He gave out all these giant contracts, and he has to wonder just how long the ownership group will let him try and dig out of the hole he put the Phillies into. I don't think he can trade Hammels and go back to ownership with just a list of prospects. I can see a deal where no more than two actual prospects go to the Phillies, along with minor league filler, and guys from the MLB roster.
I think you need to take off the Cub glasses a bit here. Vogs, OK prospect but most places don't even have him in the top 10 of Cubs prospects. No way Armaro could take that and some flies back. They also don't want major league talent (and crappy as Travis Wood or Castillo at that). If they wanted to they could drop their Mookie request from the Red Sox and get Swihart (the only legit catching prospect in all of MiLB) tomorrow. Volgs is no where close to that level.
The phillies and their ownership know they ain't winning for a couple of years. That's what happens when you go all in when the window is open.
And the phillies don't need salary relief. They've had one of the highest payrolls for years (and it dropped by 30 million this year). And they won't have to eat any money on Hammels. 5 years 100 million for a front line guy (if you want to argue he's not an ace fine, he's pretty darn close). That's 50 million less than 30 year old Lester got on the open market and 100 million less than 30 year old Scherzer. Not to mention its 50-100 million less than the top 5 guys will get on next year's hot stove market. Teams are falling all over themselves for that type of deal for that type of pitcher that's why the phillies won't have to eat a penny and still get a top flight return.
Everything I've read is the International draft coming the next year is the not so secret secret. The FO has said they aren't worrying about blowing past the spending limit this year which is why they've been in conversation with many of the biggest IFA names. The Cubs should go big and make their final big splash because it's likely (at least we hope) the Cubs won't be seeing too many top 5 draft picks in the next several years.
I really think the NL will finally adopt the DH. The current rule puts the NL in a competitive disadvantage in the WS because AL teams already have the all bat/no glove player on their roster, where the NL can't afford that luxury. It will be the carrot the owners will give the players union wants (and they want it to drive up salaries), in exchange for an international draft or continued player control to keep costs down. The Players Unions will screw the Kris Bryant's every day of the week if it means they get something in the CBA which will enrich their pocketbook.
Cub fans...you don't need a Hamels. He'd be nice, any team would want him. But you certainly don't need him. Lester and Hendricks will improve over the course...so stay the course.
Be patient. You already got a good team and from what I can gather, your starters are doing (or past track record will prove) fine.
Be patient. You already got a good team and from what I can gather, your starters are doing (or past track record will prove) fine.
I'm guessing he said "Archer would look good as a Cub" because he was in the Cubs system and was the main guy in the Garza trade. looking back; pretty bad trade for the Cubs. Also, i would trust the scouts and would have to say Vogelbach would not be the centerpiece of trade for an NL team. Everybody is saying he would struggle mightily fielding in the majors. No NL team would take that risk .
I'm not sure I agree they don't want major league talent back. They'd take Mookie Betts in a heartbeat, as they would Soler, Bryant, etc. Even someone like Castro would likely be an incredibly attractive centerpiece. They'd probably be fine with a Wood or Castillo as complimentary pieces, but not if it means in place of top prospects.
The Red Sox aren't trading Swihart for Hamels.
The Phillies and ownership may know they aren't winning for a couple years, but know and executing are two different things. The Philly fanbase and media are as rough as anyone in MLB. It's going to take a lot of intestinal fortitude for them to stick to this path. I still think RAJ is gone soon (next year or two). Ownership will need a fall guy and RAJ is a terrible GM anyway.
I'm not aware of the Phillies financial situation but agree they probably don't need salary relief. It still doesn't change the fact that other teams will take on that money lightly. It's not money or prospects, it's both and prospects have a financial value. Figure out the surplus value of Hamels and then figure in the surplus value of the prospects and you come up with a crude guide as to Hamels trade value. It doesn't help the Phillies that there are likely to be several top flight pitchers who will be available at the trade deadline who will be much more attractive to teams than Hamels because they'll be cheaper and cost less in prospects. It also hasn't helped that Hamels has not pitched well so far this year (albeit very early in the season). I don't see a team like Bos giving up a Swihart or Betts (or the deal would have been done already), or a team like the Dodgers giving up someone like a Pederson, or a team like the Cubs giving up a Soler, Russell, or Bryant (they'd be willing to part with Baez but he's no longer an attractive prospect). They'll likely get 1 top prospect (a teams top 1-3 prospect), then probably several players who are closer in talent level to Vogs.
I wouldn't call it a bad trade. It was a break even trade. The Cubs got three somewhat productive years from Garza. If he wasn't so mentally unstable it would have been better. They also got Zac Rosscup, who is on the roster and performing well. They gave up Hak-Ju Lee, Robinson Chirinos, Sam Fuld, Brandon Guyer, and Archer.
I agree with you and imo so does Theo. Sure, Theo would love to have him if he could make Baez the centerpiece, but that's not happening. However, it will cost one of the big 3 or maybe a Schwarber, and I don't see Theo parting with those guys when he can pay less and get a pitcher at the trade deadline (which will cost less in prospects) and he can buy a FA pitcher after the season. Theo should soon be swimming in money. The next TV deal is going to bring in an embarrassment of riches, and then you add in the advertising from the additional signs in Wrigley, added seats, etc. They've already seen interest spike in viewership, ticket sales, etc and the weather has sucked so far.
Not a bad trade at all. They got Grimm, Ramirez, Olt, and Edwards for Garza. So, basically it's comes down to those players for Archer. I love Grimm and Ramirez. Olt probably won't amount to anything. Edwards could be a good late inning reliever (if he can't stick as a starter), or should at least be a nice trade piece.
Valid point - the original trade wasn't great but the return they got back for Garza surely made up for it.
Well, that's baseball. Lose 2-3 to the pathetic Brewers.
And, I think trade talk is fun, but, don't think the Cubs have to make a splash with Hammels. There will be one year guys available at the trade deadline, and, there will be a good crop of FA's this offseason. With a more interesting team Wrigley will be full this Summer, and there will be money to be spent.
And, I think trade talk is fun, but, don't think the Cubs have to make a splash with Hammels. There will be one year guys available at the trade deadline, and, there will be a good crop of FA's this offseason. With a more interesting team Wrigley will be full this Summer, and there will be money to be spent.
Thinking about today (and even the next two or three years), would you rather have Archer or Grimm, Ramirez, Olt, and Edwards? You're talking about two bullpen arms, a AAAA/bench player, and (probably) another bullpen arm who's two years away from the majors versus a legitimate #2 starter with ace upside.
Back to reality cubs are a 500 club Bryant has come back to earth. Average under 280 and no homeruns.
Sheesh...I stopped listening when it was 8-4. Cubs had no business losing that game. Cards bullpen is taxed at best and their starter doesn't go 4, yet their pen still comes through.
And the Cubs got Lyons today. Cubs should have a pretty good book on him, not like he hasn't pitched in the majors before. He does seem to start out good his first game or two during most his cups of coffee, so who knows.
But I get the feeling Lyons goes 110 pitches whether he gives up 0 or 12.
And the Cubs got Lyons today. Cubs should have a pretty good book on him, not like he hasn't pitched in the majors before. He does seem to start out good his first game or two during most his cups of coffee, so who knows.
But I get the feeling Lyons goes 110 pitches whether he gives up 0 or 12.
He has a .458 OBP and is taking walks at a 22.2% rate. I'll take that in a heartbeat, I don't care how many strikeouts he ends up with or how many HR he hits. A .458 OBP is elite and if he can maintain anything close to that, I'm thrilled.
BTW, that OBP (if he was qualified yet) would tie him for 5th in MLB with Rizzo. That walk rate would tie him for 1st with Harper. Again, I don't care what else he does, if he keeps both of those going, I'm ecstatic.
Much needed bullpen help is on the way. Yes, the starters need to get farther into games, but it'll be nice to bolster the staff. Grimm pitched in Des Moines last night, and Ramirez is due to throw on the mound down in Arizona. James Russell is going to get a call very soon to rejoin the Cubs.
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The Cardinals tried to give the game to the Cubs. Martinez walking the bases loaded to start the game, Carpenter (who left the game the night before because of dizziness didn't seem himself not only going 0-5 at the plate; but just not his usually grind-it-out at bats plus miss playing the hard shot to him in the field), Peralta dropping as easy pop-up, Holiday misreading a deep shot and pulling up at the warning track when it looked like he could have easily got to the ball and made the catch, Jay taking a bad angle on a ball resulting in having to try an over-the-shoulder catch which he dropped when he fell. So, as a Cardinal fan it gives me a lot of hope when they can play that poorly and still grind out a win.
Cruz came through with a big hit late in the game to give the Cards a lead; but, Molina was sorely missed behind the plate. I am betting that the first inning wouldn't have been quite so bad if he was catching yesterday. Last year when Molina was out just about everyone on the pitching staff averaged about 1 run higher in ERA. Hopefully the Cards can pull it off to night to guarantee at least a split of the series. I am dreading the match-up Thursday as I don't have a ton of faith in Lackey; especially against someone like Arrieta.
Bryant has done a good job taking walks.
Last night was easy the balls thrown to him were not even close.
5 times up 4 walks and hit blew up that 458 # this early.
blem
The K's are a pro
Last night was easy the balls thrown to him were not even close.
5 times up 4 walks and hit blew up that 458 # this early.
blem
The K's are a pro
His K rate is around 26%. That's high but acceptable, especially if (as I said) he continues with a .458 OBP. He holds that kind of OBP for the year, he could K every time he doesn't get on base and I'd be fine with it.
What the hell is wrong with Hendricks? Jeezus, he had a 4-1 lead and pissed it away. Idiot.
Face it, the Cubs are awful and the Cardinals are God! The Cardinals are the greatest team in the history of baseball, just ask their fans. The new Busch is garbage. The Cubs won't win again until next week. They are mentally weak and pathetic. Young and stupid. Good luck Joe Maddon. Thanks for a fun April.
Lastly, the Cub pitchers have to start treating the Cardinals like the rival they are. Carpenter needs a 98 mph heater under his chin. Get these guys off the plate. Make them uneasy instead of serving up batting practice. Actually act like a MLB player and approach the game with some passion instead of a bunch of wussies.
Not sure, his command hasn't been very good. He'll throw 3-4 great pitches then miss at a horrible time. He got away with recently, but not tonight.
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