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*****Official Cubs 2019 thread*****

MitchLL said:
Who's that clown that kept touting in June/July/August how the Cubs had such a tremendous "run differential"?

Exhibit A... pound on the hapless Pirates 47-15 for a +32 and in current six game losing streak a -7. That a +25 with a 3-6 record.:p:p:p:p

Just proves how stats can be misleading and Cubs don't pass the "eyeball test".
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run differential is indicative of a teams record with about 90% certainty.
 
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dgordo said:
one thing that many seem to be forgetting is that the cubs actually have ownership that wants to win. The tribune won by accident, the Ricketts will do what is necessary to compete.
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They gave Theo tremendous resources for the organization. Money for their woeful scouting and bottom up facilities upgrades. They pulled in a little last offseason, and clearly have a salary guideline. But, if I were Tom and if Theo asks for more I’d point out a few contracts and the black hole that is player development.
 
lucas80 said:
They gave Theo tremendous resources for the organization. Money for their woeful scouting and bottom up facilities upgrades. They pulled in a little last offseason, and clearly have a salary guideline. But, if I were Tom and if Theo asks for more I’d point out a few contracts and the black hole that is player development.
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My guess is they will let Hamels walk and see what the market is like for him and I highly doubt Yu is going to opt out. Probably try to resign Castellanos. Are they willing to take the club option on Quintana for around 12 mil? They will need to find a couple relievers, atleast 1 starter, and a lead off guy. Unless they want to keep Rizzo at leadoff. Not sure what the market would be for Schwarber but they should have struck when the iron was hot. AL teams will still go for him as a DH.
 
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dgordo said:
one thing that many seem to be forgetting is that the cubs actually have ownership that wants to win. The tribune won by accident, the Ricketts will do what is necessary to compete.
Click to expand...

And while it seems like the whole world is crashing down, there's enough talent on this team to win....they just need to address consistency. Looking at the teams who appear headed for the playoffs, the Cubs are 12-24 in games decided by 3 runs or less and 12-10 in games decided by more than 3 runs. This tells me that they're competitive - they're losing games close and late, not getting their doors run off by good teams. It's clearly a larger trend over the season and something that needs to be addressed, but this is improvement in the margins, not a complete tear-down/re-do. Here's the record team by team:

Games decided by 3 runs or less
vs. As: 1-0
vs. Dodgers: 2-2
vs. Astros: 1-2
vs. Nats: 1-2
vs. Braves: 1-3
vs. Brewers: 3-7
vs. Cards: 3-8

Games decided by more than 3 runs
vs. Cards: 4-1
vs. Brewers: 4-4
vs. Dodgers: 1-1
vs. Braves: 1-1
vs. As: 1-1
vs. Nats: 1-2
 
hawkifann said:
And while it seems like the whole world is crashing down, there's enough talent on this team to win....they just need to address consistency. Looking at the teams who appear headed for the playoffs, the Cubs are 12-24 in games decided by 3 runs or less and 12-10 in games decided by more than 3 runs. This tells me that they're competitive - they're losing games close and late, not getting their doors run off by good teams. It's clearly a larger trend over the season and something that needs to be addressed, but this is improvement in the margins, not a complete tear-down/re-do. Here's the record team by team:

Games decided by 3 runs or less
vs. As: 1-0
vs. Dodgers: 2-2
vs. Astros: 1-2
vs. Nats: 1-2
vs. Braves: 1-3
vs. Brewers: 3-7
vs. Cards: 3-8

Games decided by more than 3 runs
vs. Cards: 4-1
vs. Brewers: 4-4
vs. Dodgers: 1-1
vs. Braves: 1-1
vs. As: 1-1
vs. Nats: 1-2
Click to expand...
What also shows me the Cubs have talent is their home winning record, 5th best before this last debacle.

On the road, though, in the bottom half.
 
rk#5 said:
My guess is they will let Hamels walk and see what the market is like for him and I highly doubt Yu is going to opt out. Probably try to resign Castellanos. Are they willing to take the club option on Quintana for around 12 mil? They will need to find a couple relievers, atleast 1 starter, and a lead off guy. Unless they want to keep Rizzo at leadoff. Not sure what the market would be for Schwarber but they should have struck when the iron was hot. AL teams will still go for him as a DH.
Click to expand...

Quintana's option is $10.5M. I can't imagine a scenario where they don't pick him up. They need to head to spring training with at least 6 starters, as Lester is going to spend chunks of next year injured and they need to fill the Hamels hole. Even if you think you can fill 2 rotation spots just fine with some combo of Chatwood, Mills, Alzolay, Rea, Graveman, etc., Quintana is an innings-eating lefty who is no worse than an average pitcher. You can't get an average vet lefty for $10.5M, so he'd have trade value. Letting him walk would be short-sighted.
 
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mstp1992 said:
What also shows me the Cubs have talent is their home winning record, 5th best before this last debacle.

On the road, though, in the bottom half.
Click to expand...

But again, it's really statistically unlikely to have the run differential the Cubs have and the overall record they have and be that bad in close games. What it tells me is that they don't have a single fatal flaw that needs to be fixed (though bullpen is close), but rather that they need to be a little bit better across the board, improving in the margins in many areas.
 
hawkifann said:
But again, it's really statistically unlikely to have the run differential the Cubs have and the overall record they have and be that bad in close games. What it tells me is that they don't have a single fatal flaw that needs to be fixed (though bullpen is close), but rather that they need to be a little bit better across the board, improving in the margins in many areas.
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And, try harder, of course....:cool:
 
hawkifann said:
But again, it's really statistically unlikely to have the run differential the Cubs have and the overall record they have and be that bad in close games. What it tells me is that they don't have a single fatal flaw that needs to be fixed (though bullpen is close), but rather that they need to be a little bit better across the board, improving in the margins in many areas.
Click to expand...

 
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mstp1992 said:
And, try harder, of course....:cool:
Click to expand...

tenor.gif
 
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HawkRugged17 said:
View embedded media
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I referenced the Effectively Wild podcast from Monday earlier in this thread and they said similar things. That pod hasn't had particular love for the Cubs over the past couple years, but they really went on a pretty hard pro-Cub lean in that pod. They focused on how what has happened over the last month is really unusual and how, as pointed out in this tweet, the Cubs probably have enough pure talent on the roster to be a favorite to win the division in 2020 even if they don't make bold moves in the off-season.
 
33hawkfan said:
Why would they clearly be the favorite? They weren't clearly the favorite this year. Most win projections had the Cubs, Cards and Brewers all bunched around 83-87 wins. They were projected to win one more game than the Cardinals this year, based on who each team is returning next year, I have a hard time imagining the Cubs would come out in front of St Louis at this point.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/category/2019-zips-projections/
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Take it up with Joe. :) I don't necessarily agree with him, by the way. It's the numbers.

And the Cardinals just started trying a few weeks ago. :)

 
I'm thinking about a scene from Monty Python and the Holy Grail tonight. The Cubs aren't dead yet, but, don't we all want John Cleese to do us a favor and end this thing?
 
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They literally lost 9-2 to the Pirates when starting the bottom of the 7th, up 1-0. They lost, NINE to TWO, to the Pirates who themselves have lost their previous 10 games by an average of like 15-1.

I'm trying to contain it, but...
tenor.gif
 
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The Cubs starting Pitchers are basically two washed-up guys
One Never has been
A guy who never wins in the postseason and is always hurt
Plus Kyle Hendricks

Price Tag what 70 million a year?

The Cardinals have a rotation of Two young Studs making nothing
An ok guy From Japan
A guy who is noting and is paid nothing
And a guy who is close to 40 with 14 wins who makes nothing.

Plus the Cardinals have tons of young Arms!
The Cubs have nothing for young Arms!
 
hawkjt said:
Bad time to lose 7 in a row.
Cubs need a break from playoffs.
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The Cubs reached their nadir of 14 games above .500 by winning that first game against the Reds. It would seem someone pricked their gonfalon bubble at that point, with apologies to Franklin Pierce Adams.
 
It was an incredible collapse but at least it does not hurt quite as bad to not make playoffs..Because there is no way they deserved to be there or would have advanced. Turns out they were a barely over 500 team. And we all knew it deep down.
 
Just better to be put out of our misery at this point than prolong the agony.

There's always next year.
 
For any on here old enough to remember... the collapse of the 2019 Cubs comes close to rivaling the 1964 Phillies freefall where they had a 6 game lead with 12 to play and proceeded to lose 10 in a row.

It's just incredible how this team "packed it in" and, basically, gave up when faced with a little adversity. To those who don't think the Cubs are mentally weak... SCOREBOARD.

But some will continue to believe the Cubs have so much talent and are the favorites for 2020. Dat der is some funny shit.
 
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MitchLL said:
For any on here old enough to remember... the collapse of the 2019 Cubs comes close to rivaling the 1964 Phillies freefall where they had a 6 game lead with 12 to play and proceeded to lose 10 in a row.

It's just incredible how this team "packed it in" and, basically, gave up when faced with a little adversity. To those who don't think the Cubs are mentally weak... SCOREBOARD.

But some will continue to believe the Cubs have so much talent and are the favorites for 2020. Dat der is some funny shit.
Click to expand...

We have lived it before ... we will be here again.

 
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MitchLL said:
For any on here old enough to remember... the collapse of the 2019 Cubs comes close to rivaling the 1964 Phillies freefall where they had a 6 game lead with 12 to play and proceeded to lose 10 in a row.

It's just incredible how this team "packed it in" and, basically, gave up when faced with a little adversity. To those who don't think the Cubs are mentally weak... SCOREBOARD.

But some will continue to believe the Cubs have so much talent and are the favorites for 2020. Dat der is some funny shit.
Click to expand...

The Cubs have certainly been in free fall, but I wouldn't put it on the same level as the Phils because that team had their spot all but locked up until they blew it. This team was already trailing the Cards and Nats before the free fall and Milwaukee was already putting on a hard charge.

This team is going to change significantly if for no other reason than there likely being a new manager, possibly being a new GM (Hoyer rumored for Boston) and at least a good 7-8 players (roughly 1/3 of the roster) that won't be back. Those players, plus Lester getting $7M cheaper, gives the Cubs about $70M to spend, plus they have assets with trade value, should they go in that direction. There's a lot of opportunity to improve this ball club.
 
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