*****Official Cubs 2019 thread*****

[hawkifann]

Well yeah, I was thinking as part of a package deal in order to free up some money. I don't see the point in paying him to play somewhere else when the guy still has good stuff, just can't control it.

I don't see where he is going to start anywhere, assuming they bring back Hamels, we'll have a rotation of: Lester, Hendricks, Darvish, Hamels, Quintana. Chatwood could come out of the pen for long relief, or spot start in case of injuries, but I don't see where we rely on him for 10 starts much less 30. Keep Montgomery around as that security blanket and Chatwood won't even have that role. Maybe he regains his stuff and earns a bigger role.

I also like Lucas's idea. When he does command his pitches, his velocity and movement are great. Maybe he simplifies to target a bullpen role and then, if it all comes together, maybe he gets a chance to start again. Simplifying might be the right answer for either role. Kyle Hendricks is almost entirely a two-pitch pitcher.

There's just no way to move him that makes sense unless you can trade him. I'm in favor of that if there's a taker in a deal that makes sense.....I just don't think it's that likely, but hey, give it a shot. But like paying him to play somewhere else, I don't want to put him in a really crappy deal just to do it.

 

[dgordo]

Chicago Cubs | Depth Chart | Payroll

40-Man Roster: (37)

Free Agents (10)
Bobby Wilson, C
Daniel Murphy, 2B
Jose Quintana, SP ($10.5MM club option/$1MM buyout)
Jaime Garcia, SP/RP
Cole Hamels, SP ($20MM club option/$6MM buyout — Rangers responsible for buyout)
Jesse Chavez, RP
Jorge De La Rosa, RP
Brandon Kintzler, RP ($10MM club option/$5MM player option)
Pedro Strop, RP ($6.25MM club option/$500K buyout)
Justin Wilson, RP

*Jason Heyward can opt out of his contract.

 

[dgordo]

Well yeah, I was thinking as part of a package deal in order to free up some money. I don't see the point in paying him to play somewhere else when the guy still has good stuff, just can't control it.

I don't see where he is going to start anywhere, assuming they bring back Hamels, we'll have a rotation of: Lester, Hendricks, Darvish, Hamels, Quintana. Chatwood could come out of the pen for long relief, or spot start in case of injuries, but I don't see where we rely on him for 10 starts much less 30. Keep Montgomery around as that security blanket and Chatwood won't even have that role. Maybe he regains his stuff and earns a bigger role.

dont forget about drew smyly

 

[Snoops]

I love that this thread is getting so much action. Somewhere there is a Cardinals fan with a case of the sads counting WS rings from 70+ years ago.

More evidence of the Cubs dynasty!

 

[SoDakHawk]

Pretty much.

 

[dgordo]

some interesting points in here about why the offense struggled

 

[dgordo]

 

[Hawk_4shur]

some interesting points in here about why the offense struggled

View embedded media

Well, sure. When you have some young talent and they all hit the wall at the same time, it hurts the offense. (BTW, he failed to mention Baez). He also mentioned that the Cubs have some solid veterans.

The frustrating thing with this Cubs team, is that when guys were in a hitting slump they simply struck out. No chance for an error, no chance to advance the runner. The Cubs don't bunt or steal much, so they have to rely on a big hit. How many extra base hits did the Cubs get in the last week of the season? Or, in the tie-breaker or WC game?

The Cubs had 40 1 or 0 run games and still won 95? Still seems impossible ....

 

[SoDakHawk]

Let's make this happen.

 

[mstp1992]

Probably just wishful thinking, but I thought I heard somewhere (can't remember the source) that the Cubs are going to go after Bryce Harper.

Could this be a real possibility?

Would it be a good move if it could be accomplished?

 

[dgordo]

 

[dgordo]

 

[dgordo]

 

[dgordo]

 

[SoDakHawk]

Probably just wishful thinking, but I thought I heard somewhere (can't remember the source) that the Cubs are going to go after Bryce Harper.

Could this be a real possibility?

Would it be a good move if it could be accomplished?

I think it would be a better move to go get Machado.

 

[hawkifann]

View embedded media

This is a good thing. They don't need to make rash/knee-jerk decisions.

 

[EpenesaEpenesa]

This is a good thing. They don't need to make rash/knee-jerk decisions.

And they won’t. They aren’t out for blood right now like the fanbase. Fire everyone!!!

 

[hawkifann]

And they won’t. They aren’t out for blood right now like the fanbase. Fire everyone!!!

 

[MitchL]

I think it would be a better move to go get Machado.

^^^This. If it's a Machado OR Harper... it's Manny all day long.

 

[dgordo]

^^^This. If it's a Machado OR Harper... it's Manny all day long.

I agree, I think they are very similar players from a statistically standpoint but machado is a better fit.

 

[TC Nole OX]

I don't get the desire to throw big money at Harper or Machado. Big money signings seldom add value relative to the dollars spent and Theo is particularly bad at big money free agent signings.

 

[hawkifann]

I don't get the desire to throw big money at Harper or Machado. Big money signings seldom add value relative to the dollars spent and Theo is particularly bad at big money free agent signings.

He's been a mixed bag, but you have to evaluate on the criteria, not the fact that big $$ were spent. The risk on Machado is that the OBP side hasn't always been there, but there's no doubt he can hit. With Harper, there have been some attitude concerns and obviously he was a mess this year. That said, I think both are legitimately top 15 talents. Signing these guys would be much more like signing Lester than signing Yu Darvish with his known injury issues coming off a head-case finish or Heyward, coming off a career year that was a clear outlier from what he had done in the past.

 

[dgordo]

Its true that theo has had some bad signings but hes also had some fantastic ones. Jon Lester might be the best free agent deal in the history of chicago sports.

 

[H4wkfan4life]

I do think Ricketts will be willing to go over the luxury tax threshold, so that's where I think they'll get the space. That said, I could definitely see them packaging Heyward with a Schwarber/Happ in a deal where the Cubs maybe pay half his due money. Heyward can still play and someone will want him if the Cubs can make the money thing work.

Here's where the Cubs stand right now for 2019 (all numbers are base salary per spotrac.com). The Cubs have $144M currently locked in for guys already signed for 2019 plus Heyward's player option. There's another $46.75M in team options. $20M of that is Hamels, so there's some space if the Cubs opt to not take his option and the $10M for Kintzler likely won't be picked up (EDIT: Since posting, I've learned there's also a $5M player option for Kintzler, which I'm assuming he'll take). I assume they will pick up Q and Strop, so that's $16.75M. They're also likely going to see $36-40M in Arb deals and the rest of the roster will be under $800k.

Places to cut: $20M for Hamels if the Cubs don't pick it up (Rangers would even be paying the buyout). $10M for Kintzler, $3M if they move or drop Russell. I think Duensing will be moved, so that's another $3.5M. I don't think LaStella will be back and if Schwarber gets dealt, the pair would free about $4M. If ownership will go into luxury tax territory, then they likely have room for 1 big deal or a couple mid-tier deals.

Under Contract $124M
Lester, $22.5M
Darvish, $20M
Chatwood, $12.5M
Zobrist, $12M
Rizzo, $11M
Morrow, $9M
Smyly, $7M
Cishek, $6.5M
Duensing, $3.5M

Player Option $20M
Heyward, $20M (no way he opts out)

Team Option
Hamels, $20M (I'd guess 60/40 the Cubs pick it up)
Quintana, $10.5M (Cubs should and will pick it up. Hasn't been as good as hoped, but getting an equivalent pitcher would cost more than this)
Kintzler, $10M (Likely gone) EDIT: Again, he apparently has a $5M player option, so likely not gone.
Strop, $6.25M (He's a bargain. Cubs will/should pick this up)

Arb1
Baez - Bryant got a record $10.85M in Arb 1 year. I'll guess Baez around $6-7M, well up from the $675k he made this year.
Montgomery - Certainly added value due to starting. I'll guess he goes from $611K to $4-5M.
Schwarber - Likely goes to $3-4M up from $604K

Arb2
Bryant - Will get a small bump. Maybe he goes to $13M
Hendricks - Goes up from $4.1M to probably $7-8M
LaStella - Likely wouldn't get much bump, making $950k now. Maybe $1.5M
Russell - Made $3.2M this year. Cubs likely deal him for scraps, but between his lousy offensive year and the suspension, he won't be in line for much more than he's getting now.
Webster - If he stays in the system, he'll still be around league minimum, no more than $600K

Pre-Arb All of these guys would make somewhere between the league minimum and maybe $650K.
Almora
Caratini
Contreras
T. Davis
Edwards
Gore
Happ
Maples
Mills
Rosario
Zagunis

I don't think javy should get that much for one really good year. I also don't think schwarber should either.....but who knows.
At least not when you look at what hendricks got, maybe he just got screwed though lol.
Even at 5m, I'd tell kintzler to take a hike. Gonna be some big time relievers available, put the money towards one of them.
Oh and I say we bump KB down to 9M! ( I know, not gonna happen)

 

[H4wkfan4life]

I'd add TLS to Gonzo's list of players unlikely to return. He's a great pinch hitter, there is no doubt about that. But, he is a bad fielder. I'd prefer to find a cheaper option in the farm system, or on the FA market. Someone who can be part of a double switch.

pretty sure crybaby won't play for anyone else, so we either keep him or cut him......
gonna be hard to find cheaper

 

[H4wkfan4life]

Happ, Russell, Schwarber, Heywood, are position
players who have played their last game for Cubs.
They are trade bait to upgrade the starting pitching
rotation.

How much upgrade do we need in the rotation? We'll have smyly and I find it hard to believe we can't get something out of crapwood and/or darvish next year. We need to figure out how we are gonna field a more consistent O most importantly.
If they have pretty much given up on darvish, then I can see needing to clear rotation money. I sure hope that is not the case though.
He needs to have a good year next year or we need to run him out of the country

 

[H4wkfan4life]

He's been a mixed bag, but you have to evaluate on the criteria, not the fact that big $$ were spent. The risk on Machado is that the OBP side hasn't always been there, but there's no doubt he can hit. With Harper, there have been some attitude concerns and obviously he was a mess this year. That said, I think both are legitimately top 15 talents. Signing these guys would be much more like signing Lester than signing Yu Darvish with his known injury issues coming off a head-case finish or Heyward, coming off a career year that was a clear outlier from what he had done in the past.

harper seems to have a lot of injury history as well, at least looking at his games played during his career. i don't follow the nats so don't know for sure

 

[BioHawk]

Might want to look at Harper's big game moments too. It won't take very long, he doesn't have many.

I take Hoyer's comment on Russell to mean, "It depends if we sign Machado or not".

 

[dgordo]

I don't think javy should get that much for one really good year. I also don't think schwarber should either.....but who knows.
At least not when you look at what hendricks got, maybe he just got screwed though lol.
Even at 5m, I'd tell kintzler to take a hike. Gonna be some big time relievers available, put the money towards one of them.
Oh and I say we bump KB down to 9M! ( I know, not gonna happen)

Kinztler might decline the option. Hopefully

 

[H4wkfan4life]

I agree, I think they are very similar players from a statistically standpoint but machado is a better fit.

why a better fit?
wouldn't we be better off with 2 big time lefties and righties instead of 1:3?

harper
bryant
rizz
javy
zo

pretty solid top half.

 

[H4wkfan4life]

Might want to look at Harper's big game moments too. It won't take very long, he doesn't have many.

I take Hoyer's comment on Russell to mean, "It depends if we sign Machado or not".

whats a big game moment? machado has a .500 ops in the playoffs, harper an 800....
you saying clutch hitting or just coming up in big games?

 

[TC Nole OX]

machado has a .500 ops in the playoffs

He'll fit in with our current bunch. Load up a Brinks truck for him.

 

[BioHawk]

whats a big game moment? machado has a .500 ops in the playoffs, harper an 800....
you saying clutch hitting or just coming up in big games?

Clutch hitting.

Look, I'm not saying I don't want Harper on the Cubs. I think he would work great there. I just think that a Cubs infield with Machado and Baez up the middle and Contreras behind the plate sounds better than an outfield with Harper in it. The Cubs can't sign both of them, so I guess I'd rather have Machado now that Russell is compromised.

If the Cubs do go after Harper, that means the issue with Bryant's shoulder is far worse than they have been leading on.

 

[hawkifann]

pretty sure crybaby won't play for anyone else, so we either keep him or cut him......
gonna be hard to find cheaper

He’s not under contract. Cubs don’t have to offer arbitration. As for cheaper, Bote is about half the cost.

 

[hawkifann]

If the Cubs do go after Harper, that means the issue with Bryant's shoulder is far worse than they have been leading on.

Why? There was speculation a couple years ago that the Cubs might make a run at Harper, long before KB’s shoulder was hurt.

 

[BioHawk]

Why? There was speculation a couple years ago that the Cubs might make a run at Harper, long before KB’s shoulder was hurt.

They can't afford both of those guys unless they both decide to major discounts on their asking price. Given how they are both Boras players and how Boras is probably still upset with the Cubs for waiting two weeks to bring up Bryant I wouldn't count on that happening anytime soon.

 

[lucas80]

I listened to the interview with Jed today. It’s so refreshing how objective the brass is being. I’m not wedded to numbers, but the offense in the second half was empirically putrid. Jed today, and Theo earlier in the week have not sugar coated anything.
I appreciate discretion, and they aren’t naming names, or making knee jerk moves. That’s what good organizations do.
Still, I wouldn’t mind it if Chili moved on.

 

[lucas80]

Its true that theo has had some bad signings but hes also had some fantastic ones. Jon Lester might be the best free agent deal in the history of chicago sports.

And, he was roundly criticized for it. At least Lester makes Edwin Jackson sting a little less.
It’s also odd seeing DJLeM being productive while Ian Scott sells used cars in Tucson.

 

[H4wkfan4life]

He’s not under contract. Cubs don’t have to offer arbitration. As for cheaper, Bote is about half the cost.

Didn't he say he'd only play for the cubs or he would quit baseball when he went home instead of going to iowa?
If so, Tell him he gets what he gets or he can go home again

 

[hawkifann]

Didn't he say he'd only play for the cubs or he would quit baseball when he went home instead of going to iowa?
If so, Tell him he gets what he gets or he can go home again

That happened in 2016, yes. We'll see. I still think he'll be elsewhere. Maybe he'll retire, maybe he won't.