*****Official Cubs 2019 thread*****

[hawkifann]

For any on here old enough to remember... the collapse of the 2019 Cubs comes close to rivaling the 1964 Phillies freefall where they had a 6 game lead with 12 to play and proceeded to lose 10 in a row.

It's just incredible how this team "packed it in" and, basically, gave up when faced with a little adversity. To those who don't think the Cubs are mentally weak... SCOREBOARD.

But some will continue to believe the Cubs have so much talent and are the favorites for 2020. Dat der is some funny shit.

The Cubs have certainly been in free fall, but I wouldn't put it on the same level as the Phils because that team had their spot all but locked up until they blew it. This team was already trailing the Cards and Nats before the free fall and Milwaukee was already putting on a hard charge.

This team is going to change significantly if for no other reason than there likely being a new manager, possibly being a new GM (Hoyer rumored for Boston) and at least a good 7-8 players (roughly 1/3 of the roster) that won't be back. Those players, plus Lester getting $7M cheaper, gives the Cubs about $70M to spend, plus they have assets with trade value, should they go in that direction. There's a lot of opportunity to improve this ball club.

 

[mstp1992]

The Cubs have certainly been in free fall, but I wouldn't put it on the same level as the Phils because that team had their spot all but locked up until they blew it. This team was already trailing the Cards and Nats before the free fall and Milwaukee was already putting on a hard charge.

This team is going to change significantly if for no other reason than there likely being a new manager, possibly being a new GM (Hoyer rumored for Boston) and at least a good 7-8 players (roughly 1/3 of the roster) that won't be back. Those players, plus Lester getting $7M cheaper, gives the Cubs about $70M to spend, plus they have assets with trade value, should they go in that direction. There's a lot of opportunity to improve this ball club.

What gets me is the psychological free fall the team appeared to suffer. It’s been a complete meltdown with last night the icing on the cake. Had the Cubs fired Maddon immediately after the game I would not have been surprised.

 

[CuttyDoesIt]

What gets me is the psychological free fall the team appeared to suffer. It’s been a complete meltdown with last night the icing on the cake. Had the Cubs fired Maddon immediately after the game I would not have been surprised.

I would have fired him after the second milwaukee series where they pissed the bed

 

[HawkBall23]

Slightly off topic, but the Cardinals and Diamondbacks used 24 pitchers in a 19 inning game Tuesday night. St. Louis blew 1 run leads twice, in the 9th and 13th innings and lost in the 19th. Looks like they didn't pitch Martinez in relief as he has been appearing a lot lately.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=401077087

Arizona showed more heart and grit in 1 game than the Cubs had in 7.

 

[jamesvanderwulf]

Arizona showed more heart and grit in 1 game than the Cubs had in 7.

No, the Cardinals are mentally weak and Arizona just " wanted it more ". And Fowler struck out 9 times in the last two games batting leadoff...take him back, please...

 

[MitchLL]

The Cubs have certainly been in free fall, but I wouldn't put it on the same level as the Phils because that team had their spot all but locked up until they blew it. This team was already trailing the Cards and Nats before the free fall and Milwaukee was already putting on a hard charge.

This team is going to change significantly if for no other reason than there likely being a new manager, possibly being a new GM (Hoyer rumored for Boston) and at least a good 7-8 players (roughly 1/3 of the roster) that won't be back. Those players, plus Lester getting $7M cheaper, gives the Cubs about $70M to spend, plus they have assets with trade value, should they go in that direction. There's a lot of opportunity to improve this ball club.

Cubs were still ahead of the Brewers when this meltdown began. And Brewers had just lost their best player.

This isn't about talent level. This was a colossal collapse from a mental standpoint with a roster of veteran players. You can't spin this any other way.

The on field results fall in Maddon's lap, pure and simple. Misuse of the bullpen last summer caught up to the team in Aug/Sept. And for the record... Tampa Bay didn't hardly skip a beat when Joe left. Apparently the longer he's with a team, he becomes a liability managing.

But you already knew that, right?

 

[dgordo]

I would have fired him after the second milwaukee series where they pissed the bed

If they knew he wasn’t going to be back next year, and they knew that after last year, they never should have let him coach this year.

 

[hawkifann]

Cubs were still ahead of the Brewers when this meltdown began. And Brewers had just lost their best player.

This isn't about talent level. This was a colossal collapse from a mental standpoint with a roster of veteran players. You can't spin this any other way.

The on field results fall in Maddon's lap, pure and simple. Misuse of the bullpen last summer caught up to the team in Aug/Sept. And for the record... Tampa Bay didn't hardly skip a beat when Joe left. Apparently the longer he's with a team, he becomes a liability managing.

But you already knew that, right?

Well yes, and the point is that there will be a lot of changes for next year. Even in your post, you put a lot of blame on Maddon. He's not coming back as manager, so there will be a different manager in place with a different set of strengths and weaknesses.

And a lot of the veteran players who have played poorly during this stretch will also be gone. Strop, Kintzler, Cishek, Holland will be gone. Phelps will be gone unless the Cubs choose to pick up his option and I'm not sure why they'd do that.

So you can point to the collapse (and it's absolutely a colossal collapse, though I would still rate the Phillies collapse higher and even the 1969 Cubs higher as the only thing this year's Cubs seemed to have a clear line on was a road WC game).....but a lot of things are going to be different next year, so we'll see what they do with the money and the new manager. They could hire and spend the money poorly and be worse next year, but they could also be right back in contention for the NLCS and beyond.

 

[HawkRugged17]

Cubs were still ahead of the Brewers when this meltdown began. And Brewers had just lost their best player.

This isn't about talent level. This was a colossal collapse from a mental standpoint with a roster of veteran players. You can't spin this any other way.

The on field results fall in Maddon's lap, pure and simple. Misuse of the bullpen last summer caught up to the team in Aug/Sept. And for the record... Tampa Bay didn't hardly skip a beat when Joe left. Apparently the longer he's with a team, he becomes a liability managing.

But you already knew that, right?

You mean, except for the Rays' 4th place, 5th place, and 3rd place finishes under their current manager after Maddon left, then you are right, Tampa just kept going.

2015 80-82 4th place
2016 68-94 5th place
2017 80-82 3rd place.

 

[SoDakHawk]

Sometimes things like this have to happen to effect change. In the short-term it hurts but we'll be better off in the long run.

 

[HawkRugged17]

No, the Cardinals are mentally weak and Arizona just " wanted it more ". And Fowler struck out 9 times in the last two games batting leadoff...take him back, please...

Fowler is mentally weak on an otherwise strong-willed team.

 

[CuttyDoesIt]

Well yes, and the point is that there will be a lot of changes for next year. Even in your post, you put a lot of blame on Maddon. He's not coming back as manager, so there will be a different manager in place with a different set of strengths and weaknesses.

And a lot of the veteran players who have played poorly during this stretch will also be gone. Strop, Kintzler, Cishek, Holland will be gone. Phelps will be gone unless the Cubs choose to pick up his option and I'm not sure why they'd do that.

So you can point to the collapse (and it's absolutely a colossal collapse, though I would still rate the Phillies collapse higher and even the 1969 Cubs higher as the only thing this year's Cubs seemed to have a clear line on was a road WC game).....but a lot of things are going to be different next year, so we'll see what they do with the money and the new manager. They could hire and spend the money poorly and be worse next year, but they could also be right back in contention for the NLCS and beyond.

Isnt Phelps option only 1 million?

 

[MitchLL]

You mean, except for the Rays' 4th place, 5th place, and 3rd place finishes under their current manager after Maddon left, then you are right, Tampa just kept going.

2015 80-82 4th place
2016 68-94 5th place
2017 80-82 3rd place.

You do understand how "frugal" TB ownership has been, right?

They've not depleted their farm system while rebuilding and are likely a WC team again this season. All this while playing to one of the poorest attendance numbers in all of MLB.
Amusing you pick out a sentence and ignore the crux of my post. Doesn't fit your agenda?

Cubs collapse is one of MLB's biggest stories of the season.

 

[SoDakHawk]

The collapse coincided with injuries to Craig Kimbrell, Javy Baez, Addison Russell, Anthony Rizzo, and finally Kris Bryant. That's quite a few key injuries to key players over the last month. Is anybody surprised the Cubs could not overcome those setbacks?

 

[Hwki6sn]

The collapse coincided with injuries to Craig Kimbrell, Javy Baez, Addison Russell, Anthony Rizzo, and finally Kris Bryant. That's quite a few key injuries to key players over the last month. Is anybody surprised the Cubs could not overcome those setbacks?

The Brewers lost the reigning MVP and have dealt with the majority of their starting rotation hurt at one time or the other this year. Those are some pretty key injuries and yet they sucked it up and put on the late charge.

 

[hawkifann]

Sometimes things like this have to happen to effect change. In the short-term it hurts but we'll be better off in the long run.

I came to terms with it after the 2nd STL loss. I'm still rooting for the Cubs to somehow claw back in, but it's not going to happen -- if any team was going to fall hard enough for the Cubs to pass, it was going to be the Nats with that schedule, but the ship has sailed.

Now I'm just excited to get into the offseason and see what happens. I assume they'll line up the manager first and then start working on everything else.

 

[HawkBall23]

I don't count the injury to Russell as a legit reason for the collapse.

He should have been released, if not traded for a bag of new balls, before his big league callup earlier this summer.

 

[jamesvanderwulf]

The Brewers lost the reigning MVP and have dealt with the majority of their starting rotation hurt at one time or the other this year. Those are some pretty key injuries and yet they sucked it up and put on the late charge.

Yeah, but for two years in a row the schedule makers have set Milwaukee up. Their last 20 games they played all three divisions last place teams and two second to last place teams. The Cards were the only team they played with a pulse and the Cards won 2/3 ( plus the blown save, should have swept.)Last year they finished with 98 loss Detroit, Pittsburg x 6, last place Cincy .414 and us. When you play losing teams at the end of the year they're usually playing AA guys on the expanded rosters, especially pitchers.

 

[CuttyDoesIt]

The collapse coincided with injuries to Craig Kimbrell, Javy Baez, Addison Russell, Anthony Rizzo, and finally Kris Bryant. That's quite a few key injuries to key players over the last month. Is anybody surprised the Cubs could not overcome those setbacks?

The division, sure. But to lose the second wild card spot to a team missing the MVP.... We had a 4 game lead when he went down.

 

[hawkifann]

The collapse coincided with injuries to Craig Kimbrell, Javy Baez, Addison Russell, Anthony Rizzo, and finally Kris Bryant. That's quite a few key injuries to key players over the last month. Is anybody surprised the Cubs could not overcome those setbacks?

Honestly, the Russell injury was a blessing. Hoerner has been better than Russell would have been plugging in for Javy. The Cubs need to move on from Russell and the emergence of Hoerner makes that easier.

Gimping to the finish was hastened by the injuries, but in the last couple weeks (outside of the Pittsburgh series in Wrigley), we've seen the recurrence of the same old things, but without a JavyBomb here and there to cover. The team doesn't cash in on enough scoring opportunities and the bullpen is trash. Look at last night - Hendricks takes a no-hitter into the 6th and starts the 7th with a 1-hit shutout in progress. He gives up a few singles and a run and then the harder hits start coming. Cubs are down and Hendricks is clearly done right around the time Joe starts getting someone up. Phelps & Co. come in and throw gas on the fire......meanwhile, facing the deadest pitching staff in baseball right now, the Cubs leave ELEVEN guys on base.

The Cubs need a better bullpen and a more fundamentally sound approach at the plate that can cash in more consistently on opportunities. This team is so all-or-nothing.

 

[Joes Place]

Yeah, but for two years in a row the schedule makers have set Milwaukee up. Their last 20 games they played all three divisions last place teams and two second to last place teams.

Protip: That's how the Cubs/Cards staked their mid-season "leads"; padding the resumes with "cupcakes". It's a 162 game schedule; not 140, not 150.

 

[MitchLL]

The collapse coincided with injuries to Craig Kimbrell, Javy Baez, Addison Russell, Anthony Rizzo, and finally Kris Bryant. That's quite a few key injuries to key players over the last month. Is anybody surprised the Cubs could not overcome those setbacks?

Uh... look at what the NYY endured if you're trying to use injuries as an excuse.

Unless you're just predicting what Theo tells the Ricketts to save his job.

 

[hawkifann]

Yeah, but for two years in a row the schedule makers have set Milwaukee up. Their last 20 games they played all three divisions last place teams and two second to last place teams. The Cards were the only team they played with a pulse and the Cards won 2/3 ( plus the blown save, should have swept.)Last year they finished with 98 loss Detroit, Pittsburg x 6, last place Cincy .414 and us. When you play losing teams at the end of the year they're usually playing AA guys on the expanded rosters, especially pitchers.

The Cubs' issues are separate from this, but you're right. They've had a very favorable schedule in September a couple years in a row. There's some randomness in who is good from one year to the next, but they've been fortunate two years straight.

 

[hawkifann]

Protip: That's how the Cubs/Cards staked their mid-season "leads"; padding the resumes with "cupcakes". It's a 162 game schedule; not 140, not 150.

In all reality, there's a lot of randomness that goes into a schedule, much of which the schedule-makers can't predict. Do you see a lot of a particular team before or after a major injury? Do you catch a 2nd tier contender before or after they add pieces during the trade deadline. Do you face a fringe team before or after they decide they're out and trade everyone with a pulse? Do you catch a bad team when they're really bad early or do you catch them late when you're seeing the top wave of a top farm system and the team is actually significantly better?

 

[Joes Place]

The Cubs' issues are separate from this, but you're right. They've had a very favorable schedule in September a couple years in a row. There's some randomness in who is good from one year to the next, but they've been fortunate two years straight.

...which simply means the Cubs and Cards had "favorable" Augusts, or Junes, or Julys.....

 

[jamesvanderwulf]

Protip: That's how the Cubs/Cards staked their mid-season "leads"; padding the resumes with "cupcakes". It's a 162 game schedule; not 140, not 150.

Protip: Stick to politics. Some teams made mid season moves that leave them limping to the finish line playing for next year. Pittsburgh wasn't getting beat by an average of score of 15 - 1 early in the season...

 

[Joes Place]

Protip: Stick to politics. Some teams made mid season moves that leave them limping to the finish line playing for next year. Pittsburgh wasn't getting beat by an average of score of 15 - 1 early in the season...

Protip: If your team dominated head-head, you might have a case.

In this instance, Milwaukee went 19-19 vs. the Cubs/Cards. They aren't "benefitting" from a cushy September. They're winning the games in September against teams the Cubs and Cards got to feast on earlier in the year.

 

[Joes Place]

Pittsburgh wasn't getting beat by an average of score of 15 - 1 early in the season...

But Washington was wallowing in mediocrity. What happened to them?
Oh, they started playing well.

 

[Joes Place]

Shit...another GS by Braun.
U gotta be friggin' kidding me.....

 

[mstp1992]

The collapse coincided with injuries to Craig Kimbrell, Javy Baez, Addison Russell, Anthony Rizzo, and finally Kris Bryant. That's quite a few key injuries to key players over the last month. Is anybody surprised the Cubs could not overcome those setbacks?

Their problems were there before the injuries.

 

[jamesvanderwulf]

Protip: If your team dominated head-head, you might have a case.

In this instance, Milwaukee went 19-19 vs. the Cubs/Cards. They aren't "benefitting" from a cushy September. They're winning the games in September against teams the Cubs and Cards got to feast on earlier in the year.

Milwaukee's best pitcher was a Pirate till July...All star Corey Dickerson was too. Reds got rid of Puig. Hummm...not the same teams...

I see Pedoman's eyes are getting too big for his head...

 

[Joes Place]

Milwaukee's best pitcher was a Pirate till July...

Huh? Their best pitcher was an All Star who was out 2 months w/ an oblique injury.

Just b/c they made smart trades doesn't change anything. Not a single team in the league has the same roster in September they have in April/May/June.

This is just making excuses for poor management, and poor ownership/trades/contracts. It sucks that Kimbrel has turned into a complete liability. Darvish was a liability last year; he's looked like their ace this year since a slow start.

 

[jamesvanderwulf]

Pirates Josh Bell's splits after Dickerson left are incredible. Went from 1.024 OPS to .788 27 Hrs to 10...Different team than early in the year...That's why when you play a team that's out of the race makes a difference...That's why the Cubs beat them 47 - 15, then only scored 23 runs in the next 8 games...

 

[dgordo]

Pirates Josh Bell's splits after Dickerson left are incredible. Went from 1.024 OPS to .788 27 Hrs to 10...Different team than early in the year...That's why when you play a team that's out of the race makes a difference...That's why the Cubs beat them 47 - 15, then only scored 23 runs in the next 8 games...

this

 

[H4wkfan4life]

run differential is indicative of a teams record with about 90% certainty.

I don't think I'll ever believe too much in RD, don't care how much I hear about it.
If every game was played/managed the same then yes, but putting up 10 runs with someones position players pitching.....that should never count towards any useful stats imo.

 

[H4wkfan4life]

Pirates Josh Bell's splits after Dickerson left are incredible. Went from 1.024 OPS to .788 27 Hrs to 10...Different team than early in the year...That's why when you play a team that's out of the race makes a difference...That's why the Cubs beat them 47 - 15, then only scored 23 runs in the next 8 games...

I agree with "when you play" but not sure how josh bell has anything to do with the cubs scoring 10 runs every game....

 

[dgordo]

I don't think I'll ever believe too much in RD, don't care how much I hear about it.
If every game was played/managed the same then yes, but putting up 10 runs with someones position players pitching.....that should never count towards any useful stats imo.

its not really a matter of belief, over the history of baseball rd has been highly correlated with record.

 

[dgordo]

 

[hawkifann]

...which simply means the Cubs and Cards had "favorable" Augusts, or Junes, or Julys.....

Right. I was just pointing to the randomness aspect. Not trying to imply that the Cubs and Cards are getting screwed.

 

[hawkifann]

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Sounds like what he said last year.