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*****Official Cubs 2023 thread*****

MitchLL said:
I've read his option for 2023 is $16M. He helped himself with his playoff stats.
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Yes, he was signed 2/$32M with the 2nd year being an opt out option. What’s interesting is that the early reports out projecting upcoming free agent salaries have Josh Bell as the best 1B on the market and landing a 4/$64M contract and Jose Abreu signing for 2/$34M. Obviously that’s all guess work at this point, but I’m not sure if Rizzo will do much better than $16-18M AAV, given his age and back history. He probably can get more years, though. If he does opt out, I could definitely see him getting something like the Bell projection this offseason. I just don’t think it will be with the Cubs….and that will certainly piss some Cub fans off.
 
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hawkifann said:
Yes, he was signed 2/$32M with the 2nd year being an opt out option. What’s interesting is that the early reports out projecting upcoming free agent salaries have Josh Bell as the best 1B on the market and landing a 4/$64M contract and Jose Abreu signing for 2/$34M. Obviously that’s all guess work at this point, but I’m not sure if Rizzo will do much better than $16-18M AAV, given his age and back history. He probably can get more years, though. If he does opt out, I could definitely see him getting something like the Bell projection this offseason. I just don’t think it will be with the Cubs….and that will certainly piss some Cub fans off.
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He only played 130 games for the Yanks. And given his history, I doubt he'll ever play more than that and likely less.

He's a great teammate by all accts, but he's a big risk and I agree with everything you stated.
 
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MitchLL said:
He only played 130 games for the Yanks. And given his history, I doubt he'll ever play more than that and likely less.

He's a great teammate by all accts, but he's a big risk and I agree with everything you stated.
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130 games is the reason why the Cubs let him go. I love everything about him, and have posted my neat CSB about getting a ball during a game from him multiple times. But, that back...
 
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lucas80 said:
130 games is the reason why the Cubs let him go. I love everything about him, and have posted my neat CSB about getting a ball during a game from him multiple times. But, that back...
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The difference is the Cubs could use him 75% of the time as a DH. Didn't have that option back then.

Cubs should go hard after him.
 
I wish the Cubs had kept him and then I’d be all-in for him ending his career as a Cub….but now that he’s gone, there are better uses for those dollars. I speak to the Rizzo question as part of my most recent podcast, which pushed this evening.

 
The revolving door of hitting coach continues. That’s something the organization needs to truly address. The lack of continuity is concerning.
 
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I am not an alternate handle of @hawkifann but, most of the folks in this thread would enjoy his podcasts.
I didn't ask his permission, but I thought I'd briefly recap one of them in which he makes a case for trading to get Shohei Ohtani. He gives a solid analysis of how to rank the value of a player like Ohtani who is so unique, and what the Cubs would have to give up for what could be a one year rental? The basic premise being a value set for Ohtani by stat weirdos, and the Cubs would need to match that number in a mix of MLB ready players and prospects. Since the Angels rank at the very bottom of MLB's prospect rankings they'd need a large influx of farm hands. Hawkifann gave four prospective trades to get to the magic number that Ohtani is valued at, each centered on one of the more promising Cubs players who has impacted the MLB level.
Deal 1. Hoerner, Velazquez, Cassie, DJ Herz, and Wisnieski.
Deal 2. Steele, Davis, Killian, Made, Drew Grey.
Deal 3 Morel, Cassie, Christian Hernandez, Cade Horton, Herz.
Deal 4. Thompson, Davis, Cassie, Killian, Gray

I think that's it. I jotted down the names as I listened along. Hawkifann repeatedly says prospects are just prospects for your team until they make the majors, or they are utilized in a deal. This week saw a terrible injury to Alexander Canario, who many teams would have wanted this offseason. Brennan Davis left the AZL with a sore back. And, perpetual prospect Miguel Amaya is on the shelf again. I thought that Theo grew too attached to his prospects, and that led to a guy like Schwarber walking away for no return, and a giant pile of guys departing during the 2021 season.

Would you make any of these deals? Discuss.
 
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lucas80 said:
I am not an alternate handle of @hawkifann but, most of the folks in this thread would enjoy his podcasts.
I didn't ask his permission, but I thought I'd briefly recap one of them in which he makes a case for trading to get Shohei Ohtani. He gives a solid analysis of how to rank the value of a player like Ohtani who is so unique, and what the Cubs would have to give up for what could be a one year rental? The basic premise being a value set for Ohtani by stat weirdos, and the Cubs would need to match that number in a mix of MLB ready players and prospects. Since the Angels rank at the very bottom of MLB's prospect rankings they'd need a large influx of farm hands. Hawkifann gave four prospective trades to get to the magic number that Ohtani is valued at, each centered on one of the more promising Cubs players who has impacted the MLB level.
Deal 1. Hoerner, Velazquez, Cassie, DJ Herz, and Wisnieski.
Deal 2. Steele, Davis, Killian, Made, Drew Grey.
Deal 3 Morel, Cassie, Christian Hernandez, Cade Horton, Herz.
Deal 4. Thompson, Davis, Cassie, Killian, Gray

I think that's it. I jotted down the names as I listened along. Hawkifann repeatedly says prospects are just prospects for your team until they make the majors, or they are utilized in a deal. This week saw a terrible injury to Alexander Canario, who many teams would have wanted this offseason. Brennan Davis left the AZL with a sore back. And, perpetual prospect Miguel Amaya is on the shelf again. I thought that Theo grew too attached to his prospects, and that led to a guy like Schwarber walking away for no return, and a giant pile of guys departing during the 2021 season.

Would you make any of these deals? Discuss.
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That’s an awesome recap and thanks for the call-out! I think the overall value in those deals has held up, though maybe Davis’s value has maybe dropped with him having to step away from the AFL. While I likely would make any of those deals, I might look to re-do #1 based on what we saw from Wesneski in Chicago. Not that I wouldn’t include him in a deal for Ohtani, because I would, but I think him and Hoerner in the same deal might not be ideal. If I was drawing it up today, I might put Wesneski as the center of Deal 4 and put Thompson into deal 1.

I’m a big believer in getting value out of the farm system and often that will be via trade.
 
lucas80 said:
I am not an alternate handle of @hawkifann but, most of the folks in this thread would enjoy his podcasts.
I didn't ask his permission, but I thought I'd briefly recap one of them in which he makes a case for trading to get Shohei Ohtani. He gives a solid analysis of how to rank the value of a player like Ohtani who is so unique, and what the Cubs would have to give up for what could be a one year rental? The basic premise being a value set for Ohtani by stat weirdos, and the Cubs would need to match that number in a mix of MLB ready players and prospects. Since the Angels rank at the very bottom of MLB's prospect rankings they'd need a large influx of farm hands. Hawkifann gave four prospective trades to get to the magic number that Ohtani is valued at, each centered on one of the more promising Cubs players who has impacted the MLB level.
Deal 1. Hoerner, Velazquez, Cassie, DJ Herz, and Wisnieski.
Deal 2. Steele, Davis, Killian, Made, Drew Grey.
Deal 3 Morel, Cassie, Christian Hernandez, Cade Horton, Herz.
Deal 4. Thompson, Davis, Cassie, Killian, Gray

I think that's it. I jotted down the names as I listened along. Hawkifann repeatedly says prospects are just prospects for your team until they make the majors, or they are utilized in a deal. This week saw a terrible injury to Alexander Canario, who many teams would have wanted this offseason. Brennan Davis left the AZL with a sore back. And, perpetual prospect Miguel Amaya is on the shelf again. I thought that Theo grew too attached to his prospects, and that led to a guy like Schwarber walking away for no return, and a giant pile of guys departing during the 2021 season.

Would you make any of these deals? Discuss.
Click to expand...
Also, if anyone wants to check this episode out, it’s Episode 7 - The Case (and Price) for Shohei Ohtani. You can get to all the episodes, and to my pod on all the major players from the podcast home page: CubsPS+ on Podbean
 
Besides boobs, what would you guys like to hear in terms of content? I think I have 3 guests lined up for November and I’m excited to talk to each of them. What kind of guests would you guys like to hear from - key topics? In the offseason, there’s a lot more opportunity to pre-plan some episodes and line up a variety of interviews.
 
As we watch Schwarber hit World Series bombs for the Phillies as the Cubs sit the postseason out again, I sat down for a conversation with baseball writer Craig Calcaterra about being a fan in 2022. This summer he released his book, “Rethinking Fandom: How to Beat the Sports-Industrial Complex at Its Own Game”. It’s an interesting read, particularly so as the Cubs have grown out of the Lovable Losers stage to whatever this is post-championship.

Craig and I discuss how he came to write the book, how fandom is impacted by the business side of baseball and the accessibility of baseball to young fans today. We also talk about what fans can do when ownership isn’t competing or we don’t like the direction of the team or some of the players’ off-field activities.

 
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hawkifann said:
Besides boobs, what would you guys like to hear in terms of content? I think I have 3 guests lined up for November and I’m excited to talk to each of them. What kind of guests would you guys like to hear from - key topics? In the offseason, there’s a lot more opportunity to pre-plan some episodes and line up a variety of interviews.
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As a metrics weirdo could you incorporate some minor league discussions around the Cubs farm system? If not, just a summation of top prospects would be fun to listen to with tedious descriptions of their metrics.
 
Silly season is almost upon us, and 99.99 percent of all proposed trades do not happen. But, it's silly season. Rumors are that the Yankees want to move Giancarlo Stanton. Would you welcome him to the Cubs if he agreed to a deal? It would be a $140 million dollar investment on a guy who still hits homers, but is basically a DH. He is below average in the field.
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs...-ever-consider-a-trade-for-giancarlo-stanton/
 
lucas80 said:
As a metrics weirdo could you incorporate some minor league discussions around the Cubs farm system? If not, just a summation of top prospects would be fun to listen to with tedious descriptions of their metrics.
Click to expand...
Yes…I’m working on getting some guests to address that. I can do some stuff, but would be more interesting if someone who has followed it more closely could do that. If not, I’ll definitely take a stab, thinking about something around the Rule 5 deadline. Would you be more interested in a metrics dive or more interested in how they project?

After getting Craig Calcaterra this week, I’m hoping to have at least 2 more guests in November - one on strength & conditioning and one on pitching development/pitch labs. Guest episodes are way easier for me because they can be smart. It’s the same amount of prep, really, but the editing is easier because it’s not me cutting out all my flubbing.
 
lucas80 said:
Silly season is almost upon us, and 99.99 percent of all proposed trades do not happen. But, it's silly season. Rumors are that the Yankees want to move Giancarlo Stanton. Would you welcome him to the Cubs if he agreed to a deal? It would be a $140 million dollar investment on a guy who still hits homers, but is basically a DH. He is below average in the field.
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs...-ever-consider-a-trade-for-giancarlo-stanton/
Click to expand...
I read that and without giving spoilers, I thought it was an interesting walk through, but I came around to the same place the author did.
 
lucas80 said:
I am not an alternate handle of @hawkifann but, most of the folks in this thread would enjoy his podcasts.
I didn't ask his permission, but I thought I'd briefly recap one of them in which he makes a case for trading to get Shohei Ohtani. He gives a solid analysis of how to rank the value of a player like Ohtani who is so unique, and what the Cubs would have to give up for what could be a one year rental? The basic premise being a value set for Ohtani by stat weirdos, and the Cubs would need to match that number in a mix of MLB ready players and prospects. Since the Angels rank at the very bottom of MLB's prospect rankings they'd need a large influx of farm hands. Hawkifann gave four prospective trades to get to the magic number that Ohtani is valued at, each centered on one of the more promising Cubs players who has impacted the MLB level.
Deal 1. Hoerner, Velazquez, Cassie, DJ Herz, and Wisnieski.
Deal 2. Steele, Davis, Killian, Made, Drew Grey.
Deal 3 Morel, Cassie, Christian Hernandez, Cade Horton, Herz.
Deal 4. Thompson, Davis, Cassie, Killian, Gray

I think that's it. I jotted down the names as I listened along. Hawkifann repeatedly says prospects are just prospects for your team until they make the majors, or they are utilized in a deal. This week saw a terrible injury to Alexander Canario, who many teams would have wanted this offseason. Brennan Davis left the AZL with a sore back. And, perpetual prospect Miguel Amaya is on the shelf again. I thought that Theo grew too attached to his prospects, and that led to a guy like Schwarber walking away for no return, and a giant pile of guys departing during the 2021 season.

Would you make any of these deals? Discuss.
Click to expand...
Deal #1 is too much. As hawkifann said, swapping Wes for Keegan in deals 1 and 4 makes more sense.

But no way should the Cubs pulls the trigger on a trade like this unless they have a long-term contract in place first. Getting him for 1 year should not be part of a long-term plan of rebuilding a regular contender.
 
MeetTheFerentzes said:
Deal #1 is too much. As hawkifann said, swapping Wes for Keegan in deals 1 and 4 makes more sense.

But no way should the Cubs pulls the trigger on a trade like this unless they have a long-term contract in place first. Getting him for 1 year should not be part of a long-term plan of rebuilding a regular contender.
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When I did the podcast and put those deals together I think Wesneski had only pitched in Iowa twice (and his first outing was bad), so that's why I had him in at that level.

I agree with your 2nd point, and I think it’ll happen. Technically, the Cubs and Ohtani cannot negotiate on a deal until the Cubs have access to him (which would be post-trade), but the Cubs could certainly work official channels through the Angels or unofficial channels to determine whether Ohtani is interested in a long-term deal. If Ohtani is traded anywhere in the offseason, I fully expect him to get locked down before the season starts…much like the Dodgers did with Mookie Betts, because you’re right, you can’t give up that much for one season.

I also wouldn’t count out the possibility of the Cubs taking on a chunk of Anthony Rendon’s ridiculous contract (4 years left at $38M per) to reduce the prospect cost. The Cubs are one of only a few teams that could help the Angels free up a big chunk of that money, but the Cubs would have to consider that part of the price for Ohtani.
 
dgordo said:
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I think he’s going to have every chance to make the major league roster in the spring. I think the only reason he didn’t come up to the majors late in the season is the roster crunch the Cubs are dealing with heading into the Rule 5 draft. He’ll have his struggles (all big league hitters do), but there’s a lot to like with this kid.
 
hawkifann said:
Yes…I’m working on getting some guests to address that. I can do some stuff, but would be more interesting if someone who has followed it more closely could do that. If not, I’ll definitely take a stab, thinking about something around the Rule 5 deadline. Would you be more interested in a metrics dive or more interested in how they project?

After getting Craig Calcaterra this week, I’m hoping to have at least 2 more guests in November - one on strength & conditioning and one on pitching development/pitch labs. Guest episodes are way easier for me because they can be smart. It’s the same amount of prep, really, but the editing is easier because it’s not me cutting out all my flubbing.
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How they project is more relevant to me. Especially since the systems were contracted we get more split starts and DH, and AZ leagues we get so little info about.
 
lucas80 said:
How they project is more relevant to me. Especially since the systems were contracted we get more split starts and DH, and AZ leagues we get so little info about.
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Cool, that’s where I’m leaning right now, too. I’m working on my R and Python skills so that I can get better at ingesting statcast pitching and hitting data to do more of my own analysis….but I’m a moron and decided paychecks matter and just took a new job recently after 7 months off, so a lot to juggle.

If I could make money podcasting, I’d quit the tech day job in a heartbeat.
 
hawkifann said:
Cool, that’s where I’m leaning right now, too. I’m working on my R and Python skills so that I can get better at ingesting statcast pitching and hitting data to do more of my own analysis….but I’m a moron and decided paychecks matter and just took a new job recently after 7 months off, so a lot to juggle.

If I could make money podcasting, I’d quit the tech day job in a heartbeat.
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The world needs ditch diggers too, Danny.
 
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hawkifann said:
I wish the Cubs had kept him and then I’d be all-in for him ending his career as a Cub….but now that he’s gone, there are better uses for those dollars. I speak to the Rizzo question as part of my most recent podcast, which pushed this evening.

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Solid effort on this one.
With the WS over we are mere days away from starting the roster shuffle.
 
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