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*****Official Cubs 2023 thread*****

Thought a I saw somewhere that Correa is optioning out of Minnesota. Another target for the Cubs.
 
This could be your next podcast. Old timey baseball names, or IFA signings. You pick.
Haha, I’m actually working on old timey baseball names, but it’s not ready for prime time. This week will be free agent spending, but IFA signings will be a good one to dive into.
 
Haha, I’m actually working on old timey baseball names, but it’s not ready for prime time. This week will be free agent spending, but IFA signings will be a good one to dive into.
I’m hoping I can tie old timey baseball names in with the Cubs trading for Ohtani so that I can use Tungsten Arm O’Doyle.
 
The Cubs are in substantially better shape as an organization than they have been at any time since they lost the one-game playoff to Milwaukee in 2018. If it were possible to have taken out a "short" position on the Cubs in the middle of 2018, I would have bet my kids' education accounts on it, and it would have paid out handsomely.

Finally, the organization has a competent pitching infrastructure, and we are already seeing the fruits of it at the big league level. With a buyout of Heyward, they have zero bad contracts on the books. Jed Hoyer has been tremendous with his trades.

Also, below are the wins above replacement and salary of the marquee players dealt at the 2021 deadline (one Win Above Replacement is generally $8M/win):

  • Javy Baez - 2.0 WAR, 90 wRC+ (100 is league average), $23.3M AAV
  • Kris Bryant - 0.6 WAR (played only 42 games with nagging injuries), 125 wRC+, $26M AAV
  • Anthony Rizzo - 2.4 WAR, 132 wRC+, $16M AAV. A fine season for Rizzo
  • Craig Kimbrel - 0.9 WAR, 3.23 FIP, lost closer job, $16M AAV
Other than Rizzo (who the Cubs offered 5/$70M), the Cubs absolutely dodged a bullet in trading the others. If Pete Crow-Armstrong comes close to the hype, that deal with the Mets will be an absolute fleecing.

Had the Cubs overpaid for these franchise cornerstones so that fans could get nostalgic about 2016 for years to come (which some in here wanted them to do), they would have a top 8 payroll, a worse farm system, and would still be finishing 3rd in the division, maybe around .500.

The Cubs are built to compete for years to come -- just need a "star" type position player.
Rizzo is the one move I’ll always be salty about…guy should have retired a Cub after a long career in the friendly confines ala a Jeter…

oh well, maybe we can get him to come back like Pujols did for one last run.

I will say I like where this team is headed, and love that we actually are building out the pitching this time around. Go Cubs Go!
 
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Just reading up on this Mervis kid — an undrafted free agent?? Wow. Does this mean that our scouting his improved bigly?
 
Rizzo is the one move I’ll always be salty about…guy should have retired a Cub after a long career in the friendly confines ala a Jeter…

oh well, maybe we can get him to come back like Pujols did for one last run.

I will say I like where this team is headed, and love that we actually are building out the pitching this time around. Go Cubs Go!
Rizzo was my favorite player and the cubs offered him a generous extension. He was reportedly insulted by the offer and ended up making less in free agency.
 
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I’ve actually become a White Sox fan as a result. They have some great young talent but really flared out down the stretch this year.
I think they are probably losing a generation of the young fans…will be interesting to see how it plays out. I know I grew up following the Cubbies in my family, if they were on Marquee way back when I doubt my house would have had it…
 
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Just reading up on this Mervis kid — an undrafted free agent?? Wow. Does this mean that our scouting his improved bigly?
He was technically a UDFA, but he was in the 2020 draft class, which was shortened to 5 rounds. By most of what I’ve read, he’d have been a 6th-10th round draft pick. So, not exactly a true gem uncovered out of the blue, but I’ll give the Cubs big credit for being aggressive on a number of guys who would have otherwise been drafted.
 
I think they are probably losing a generation of the young fans…will be interesting to see how it plays out. I know I grew up following the Cubbies in my family, if they were on Marquee way back when I doubt my house would have had it…
You are 100% correct on this. I think probably half the Cub fans in the US are a result of WGN carrying all their games for years and basically available on every cable system.
 
Rizzo was my favorite player and the cubs offered him a generous extension. He was reportedly insulted by the offer and ended up making less in free agency.
In fairness, while he got less in total money than was reportedly offered (5 yrs/$70M compared to 2/$32M from Yanks), the Cubs did offer him a cut in average annual value. Rizzo made $16.5M in 2020 and 2021 and a 5/$70M offer is $14M per year.

There’s a principle of the thing argument that I think is actually in Rizzo’s favor here. You can’t make a habit of paying huge amounts of money based on what a guy was in his last deal, but Rizzo was the one guy that bridged the entire build, basically, and his 7 year extension was HUGELY team friendly. It wouldn’t have taken that much more to keep Rizzo if the Cubs really went after it. Would he have taken $17M per year for 4? That’s 4/$68M. Largely the same total money, one less year of guarantee and Rizzo isn’t offered a pay cut. I think Jed was just set on moving on, and I don’t really get it with Rizzo.

I get it with Javy and KB. KB was going to be high-end money and was starting to pile up the injuries (see this year) and Javy always had a ton of potential to be a bad contract. I wish they’d have made the effort with Rizzo, though.
 
Law did kind of crap on him there….but the improvements Mervis made in 1 season are pretty remarkable. Law was lazy to throw shade on him as a UDFA, since he would likely have been a 6-10th round pick had it been a normal season and not the 5-round COVID draft.

One thing Law does point out that has value is getting eaten up by velo. That’s something every big leaguer has to work through, as you just see so much more concentrated velocity in the bigs than you get everywhere else. If you can’t hit a middle-in 96 that’s in the upper end of the strike zone, pitchers will figure that out and you’ll see a steady diet of that pitch until you adjust. This is why I would advocate for bringing in someone to help at 1B on a short deal (such as Abreu). Starting 2023 at AAA wouldn’t be awful for Mervis or, if he does have a bang-out spring and he starts in Chicago, he will have adjustment periods and he needs to figure that stuff out without also having the burden of being the next big thing in Chicago.

I don’t know if Law is correct in his analysis that the up-and-in fastball is a hole for Mervis, but I guarantee that he has a hole in his swing or approach somewhere (everyone does) and major league pitching will absolutely figure out how to exploit it….but that gives Mervis a chance to grow.
 
Cub fan here who has not watched them much the past year due to YTTV not picking up Marquis Sports. What is the status for Marquis in 2023? Are they finally going to offer a standalone stream option?
This absolutely has to get resolved.

Whay can't the Cubs cut a deal to put every game on one of the 1,000 cable channels. Why not an exclusive deal with USA Network to broadcast all Cubs games, or something like that. Like what they did with WGN back in the day.
 
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Next thing you know he'll be a cardinals fan.
Sox yes, Cardinals a hard no.

No Way Reaction GIF by MOODMAN
 
This absolutely has to get resolved.

Whay can't the Cubs cut a deal to put every game on one of the 1,000 cable channels. Why not an exclusive deal with USA Network to broadcast all Cubs games, or something like that. Like what they did with WGN back in the day.
I'd like to see their numbers from last year. I have to believe their total viewership is way down with the current scenario. Maybe they are still generating the same amount of dollars from MLB network and what they can scrape up with Marquis??? They definitely shut out guys like me who would watch 2 or 3 games a week but want to continue with YTTV, HuLu, etc..
 
Law did kind of crap on him there….but the improvements Mervis made in 1 season are pretty remarkable. Law was lazy to throw shade on him as a UDFA, since he would likely have been a 6-10th round pick had it been a normal season and not the 5-round COVID draft.

One thing Law does point out that has value is getting eaten up by velo. That’s something every big leaguer has to work through, as you just see so much more concentrated velocity in the bigs than you get everywhere else. If you can’t hit a middle-in 96 that’s in the upper end of the strike zone, pitchers will figure that out and you’ll see a steady diet of that pitch until you adjust. This is why I would advocate for bringing in someone to help at 1B on a short deal (such as Abreu). Starting 2023 at AAA wouldn’t be awful for Mervis or, if he does have a bang-out spring and he starts in Chicago, he will have adjustment periods and he needs to figure that stuff out without also having the burden of being the next big thing in Chicago.

I don’t know if Law is correct in his analysis that the up-and-in fastball is a hole for Mervis, but I guarantee that he has a hole in his swing or approach somewhere (everyone does) and major league pitching will absolutely figure out how to exploit it….but that gives Mervis a chance to grow.
Inside with anything fast seems to be his hitting weakness. That’s a reason I’d like to see him start at AAA.
 
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Cubs President Jed Hoyer talks about “intelligent spending” - what does that really mean? Why does arbitration impact free agent budgets? And how did those things converge to lead the Cubs from the 2016 promised land to the depths of 2021 & 2022? Does any of that history indicate what the Cubs will do this offseason?

Let’s see if we can find some answers in Episode 13 - “The Intelligence of ‘Intelligent Spending’”

CubsPS+ - A North Side Numbers Game

 
Alexander Canario hit the bag at first very, very awkwardly and took a tumble in a Dominican League game tonight. Crossing my fingers, but as mentioned, it looks bad.
https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs...o-may-have-suffered-a-serious-injury-tonight/
That sucks. Howard, Davis, Canario - it’s a reminder that as good as they look, prospects are just that until they pop in Chicago. It’s amazing how well that run of guys from 2014-2016 was and also how healthy they stayed, at least for a while.

Hopefully Canario can be healthy or close by the start of spring training.
 
That sucks. Howard, Davis, Canario - it’s a reminder that as good as they look, prospects are just that until they pop in Chicago. It’s amazing how well that run of guys from 2014-2016 was and also how healthy they stayed, at least for a while.

Hopefully Canario can be healthy or close by the start of spring training.
Eerily similar to something I heard on a podcast.
 
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Canario's injury sounds gruesome. BN is reporting that he broke his ankle and his left shoulder. The ankle injury in particular is serious, and could mean an extended recovery, up to 6 months before he can even put weight on that foot. 2023 at a minimum is lost for Canario.
 
Canario's injury sounds gruesome. BN is reporting that he broke his ankle and his left shoulder. The ankle injury in particular is serious, and could mean an extended recovery, up to 6 months before he can even put weight on that foot. 2023 at a minimum is lost for Canario.
We’ll see if it’s as bad as they think. On the plus side, the shoulder should only be a minor issue at this point, since A) it’s not his throwing arm and B) he’ll be able to start shoulder rehab well ahead of the ankle timeline. I think Canario is probably looking at something like Brennan Davis’s season this year - hopefully he can get back into some game action in the 2nd half, but it’s mostly going to be a lost year for him, and that’s if surgery and rehab go well. On the plus side, he’s 22, so as long as he can get back to full health, he’s not in danger of becoming a non-prospect in the near term.

It will be interesting to see what the real scoop is on Davis also, as that may play into their offseason moves. Canario is now not someone you can pencil into the roster for the 2nd half of 2023 and now he’s also way less likely to be a trade chip in a deal for a cost-controlled established player. With the question marks around Davis also, I wonder if the Cubs might consider a move into the Brandon Nimmo market. Until last night, I’d have said the Cubs were probably an either/or on extending Happ vs. trying to sign Nimmo, but if Davis‘s health is uncertain and Canario is lost for most of 2023, maybe that math changes.
 
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In fairness, while he got less in total money than was reportedly offered (5 yrs/$70M compared to 2/$32M from Yanks), the Cubs did offer him a cut in average annual value. Rizzo made $16.5M in 2020 and 2021 and a 5/$70M offer is $14M per year.

There’s a principle of the thing argument that I think is actually in Rizzo’s favor here. You can’t make a habit of paying huge amounts of money based on what a guy was in his last deal, but Rizzo was the one guy that bridged the entire build, basically, and his 7 year extension was HUGELY team friendly. It wouldn’t have taken that much more to keep Rizzo if the Cubs really went after it. Would he have taken $17M per year for 4? That’s 4/$68M. Largely the same total money, one less year of guarantee and Rizzo isn’t offered a pay cut. I think Jed was just set on moving on, and I don’t really get it with Rizzo.

I get it with Javy and KB. KB was going to be high-end money and was starting to pile up the injuries (see this year) and Javy always had a ton of potential to be a bad contract. I wish they’d have made the effort with Rizzo, though.
Haven't read the entire thread, but it's likely the NYY don't resign Rizzo.

He can still finish his career at Wrigley if your management isn't cheap.
 
Haven't read the entire thread, but it's likely the NYY don't resign Rizzo.

He can still finish his career at Wrigley if your management isn't cheap.
I don’t think the Cubs will be cheap, but I also don’t think Rizzo is coming back to the Cubs. I think it’s far more likely that they either bring in Jose Abreu to play until Mervis is ready to platoon or take the job on a shorter deal or if they spend more money in other places, then they may not sign a first baseman at all.

I still with the Cubs had simply extended Rizzo previously, but him coming back now to this team really doesn’t make as much sense as it might seem on the surface.
 
I don’t think the Cubs will be cheap, but I also don’t think Rizzo is coming back to the Cubs. I think it’s far more likely that they either bring in Jose Abreu to play until Mervis is ready to platoon or take the job on a shorter deal or if they spend more money in other places, then they may not sign a first baseman at all.

I still with the Cubs had simply extended Rizzo previously, but him coming back now to this team really doesn’t make as much sense as it might seem on the surface.
I've read his option for 2023 is $16M. He helped himself with his playoff stats.
 
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