1. Going injury
2. They insisted he start throwing the vaunted sweeper pitch.
I'm not sure that what's wrong with him couldn't be corrected by dropping the sweeper, and just being healthier. His fastball seems unaffected.
@hawkifann probably has some numbers somewhere on this, but I have heard he's throwing his fastball less this year. He was successful in multiple stops before Chicago. Go back to what was working.
He is, but not that much less, really. A couple things of note looking at his Statcast data (at baseballsavant.com), he’s thrown no sweepers/sliders to lefties and no changeups to righties, so those pitches that move back to the hitter haven’t been in play for him.
Overall, he’s throwing his 4-seam fastball 31.6% of the time compared to 35.6% last year, so down, but not dramatically down. What stands out to me is that his cutter is getting hammered by everyone - lefties have a .394 average and a .667 slug against it and righties are .357/.571. Lefties are also crushing the 4-seamer - .310/.762.
Also, when you look at the “luck” (deviation between BA and xBA and SLG and xSLG), there‘s not much on the lefty side, he’s getting hit and the peripherals say he should be getting hit. On the righty side, though, is where the BABIP luck is coming from. He’s throwing 29.6% sweepers to right handers and they’re hitting .290/.477, but the expected BA/SLG is .190/.303. He’s getting a bunch of weak contact hits off that pitch. On the flip side, Taillon has been lucky with the 4-seamer against righties - they’re hitting .176/.235 vs an expected .235/.601.
I’d argue he needs to throw the 4-seamer less (or at least locate it better, way too much middle-middle on that pitch, which is probably the issue). He should keep throwing the sweeper against righties (it’s already his most-thrown pitch) and fewer cutters. Against lefties, he could increase the change, but they’re not throwing that pitch much in spite of good results, so I wonder if it’s not one he ever throws well in the pen.
Despite giving up the HRs and the 5 runs, I actually thought Taillon was more good than bad against Philly if you really look at the stuff, the locations and the flow. A couple guys (including one of Marsh’s HRs) hit pitches that were actually good and well-placed. Sometimes the hitter is a guy who gets paid to play baseball too.