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*****Official Cubs 2023 thread*****

hawkifann said:
San Diego is going crazy. 11 years for Bogaerts. WITAF.

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LOL, and they'll still finish behind the Dodgers in the standings. 11 years for a 30 year old SS. Enjoy the last 7 -8 years of that contract.

Thank God the Cubs didn't do something this stupid. If other teams are going to go pure dumb and give out these ridiculous contracts to free agents I am fine with the Cubs missing out on these signings. Build it up through the farm.
 
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MitchLL said:
Crazy contracts.

We'll soon find out just how much the Cubs are willing to spend.

It's not looking good at this point, because all these FAs are going to teams that want to win right now. Cubs can offer the $$$, but not the competitiveness. Outside of DeGrom, and that's a short deal.
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If the Cubs get a SS, they’re competing for the postseason and would have a good chance of making it. It’s still a weak division and the last WC team will still be sub-90 wins. There’s also no way either Correa or Swanson get less than 7 years and the Cubs are absolutely competing in that window.
 
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hawkifann said:
If the Cubs get a SS, they’re competing for the postseason and would have a good chance of making it. It’s still a weak division and the last WC team will still be sub-90 wins. There’s also no way either Correa or Swanson get less than 7 years and the Cubs are absolutely competing in that window.
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Which one of last season's playoff teams can the Cubs replace?

A dream season for Wrigley would be 81-81. I know fans always look for the positive, but be realistic.

I expect the Giants will compete before the Cubs do. Since they missed on Judge, and SD and LAD are clearly better, Giant ownership will sign either Dansby or Correa.

Again, look at the teams signing guys. the majority are going to teams that are playoff contenders.

Cubs ownership absolutely pissed that WS title down their leg. No way they should be in the current situation.
 
I'd really like to know why the Cubs didn't make an effort to extend Contreras out when the Cardinals will give him 5 years. I mean, seriously, look at the track record of these two clubs and the organizational decisions that are made. Basically, if the Cards are willing to give Willy 5 years why the F didn't the Cubs do it?
 
MitchLL said:
Which one of last season's playoff teams can the Cubs replace?

A dream season for Wrigley would be 81-81. I know fans always look for the positive, but be realistic.

I expect the Giants will compete before the Cubs do. Since they missed on Judge, and SD and LAD are clearly better, Giant ownership will sign either Dansby or Correa.

Again, look at the teams signing guys. the majority are going to teams that are playoff contenders.

Cubs ownership absolutely pissed that WS title down their leg. No way they should be in the current situation.
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I’m not going to pick a team to replace because nobody’s offseason is done and I’m not up on everyone’s rosters, but I’ll walk through why I think the Cubs will be better, significantly better.

First - the post you replied to was me stating “if the Cubs get a SS”, so this is all predicated on the Cubs getting Correa or Swanson and I’ll also caveat this with the Cubs getting another C so that they’re not trying to do the year with Gomes/Higgins. Probably wind up with Vazquez, but I’ll use a generic placeholder of a defensive-focused catcher that’s a below average, but not awful, hitter, say 90-95 wRC+.

Probably the #1 downfall for the Cubs last year was starting pitching in the first half. Stroman, Smyly, Hendricks and Miley all missed substantial time in the first half (some all year), so the Cubs were running out guys like Matt Swarmer, Mark Leiter, Luke Farrell, Alec Mills for way too many starts. Can’t ever assume perfect health, but the Cubs currently line up (in whatever order): Stroman, Steele, Taillon, Hendricks and Wesneski, probably. In reserve, they have Adrian Sampson, Javier Assad, Keegan Thompson, all of whom had good stretches as starters last year, plus they have some prospects like Caleb Kilian and Jordan Wicks knocking at the door for big-league innings. I don’t see the Cubs starting pitching being a first-half dumpster fire even if Hendricks can’t go. The Cubs have had good bullpens several years running and I don’t see any reason to think this year will be different - and with a deeper pool of starters, Adbert Alzolay and Keegan Thompson should be able to be multi-inning bullpen arms, which will be a strength.

Another factor in the first-half woes (and really all season) was defense. The Cubs were shitty on defense, especially at 2B and CF. In center, the Cubs were dead last in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) with -19 and 29th in defensive fWAR at -7.7. At 2B, the Cubs were marginally better, but not much -4 DRS and -3.6 def fWAR.

If the Cubs sign Dansby Swanson, he was the best of the FA SS on D and Hoerner slides to 2B, where he was elite prior to last year. With Dansby, the Cubs improve a little at SS (Nico’s metrics were very good there last year), but 2B metrics change completely. It goes from being a dud, to probably one of the best in the league. In CF, Cody Bellinger may not hit, but his glove is always strong and should make the Cubs and above average defensive CF, particularly paired with Gold Glover Happ in LF. For a largely contact-oriented pitching staff, this would be huge. If it’s Correa, Hoerner still slides to 2B, most likely and the Cubs are probably pretty flat on D at SS, but still get that big gain with Nico at 2B.

Offensively, the team will be better, but maybe not by leaps and bounds. Offense at C (and maybe DH) will fall off some with Contreras gone, but adding Swanson or Correa (especially Correa) adds a good bat to the lineup. Nico should still have young player improvement and I think Christopher Morel will, too. I see no reason why Happ would fall off much, if at all, and Seiya Suzuki should be better and more consistent now with a year of MLB under his belt.

The Cubs play in a weak division and, while they won’t benefit from that quite as much as in past years with the new balanced schedule, they will get to play more AL bottom feeders than they have in the past, so I’m not sure the difference is that big of a deal. I think in this scenario, they can absolutely get to 85 wins and if they’re running at that pace, they’re likely adding at the deadline, so they’d have every chance to win 87-90 games, which would have had them in the playoffs last year.

The Cardinals will be good again, but not great and I think the Brewers will take a step back. I think the Cubs will battle for the division and the WC.
 
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The Cubs had zero interest in keeping Contreras. The mystery is why. From bits here and there, they didn’t like his defense.
 
SoDakHawk said:
I'd really like to know why the Cubs didn't make an effort to extend Contreras out when the Cardinals will give him 5 years. I mean, seriously, look at the track record of these two clubs and the organizational decisions that are made. Basically, if the Cards are willing to give Willy 5 years why the F didn't the Cubs do it?
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For whatever reason (and I’m not sure we’ll ever really know), the Cubs have never once showed any interest in keeping Contreras beyond his team control years. Not even pretend extension discussions that I’ve ever heard about. I can understand wanting to go D first at C with this pitching staff, but I don’t get no serious thoughts about converting him to 1B or keeping him to largely DH and occasionally catch. If the Cubs had done the latter, then at least Willson would have had a choice and maybe he’d have opted to leave and be a starting C somewhere else…but that would be a completely different scenario than this.
 
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I wonder if some of the crazy money contracts are encouraging the Cubs to step back a little. I'm hearing Swanson get's $200 million now. I want a SS, but I don't think I want that deal. It might be time to let things cool down, and explore some trade options, too. There still are some minor FA moves to be made. Work on those until some of the nonsense settles down.
 
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I wish we had just a little more info. I was getting frustrated with the delay this morning, but then I found out that SF hasn’t gotten to the offer stage with Correa yet. Mets and/or Yankees may be getting involved also. Cubs Twitter is screaming that Jed should have just gotten the deal done, but A) negotiations 101 and B) Scott Boras. If SF, NYY or NYM are expected to jump in the race, you’re just not going to go accept the offer you have. Boras knows how to play this game. He’s going to see if someone else jumps in and then he’ll pit them against each other adn then he’ll do the FA win walk to spring training.
 
For what it’s worth, yesterday on Chicago radio, Jesse Rogers, who’s very connected around the league and especially with both Chicago teams, said he doesn’t think the Cubs will get Correa and has has been firm in his thinking for the last week or so that’s it’s Swanson, if they get either. Both he and Kaplan were critical of Cubs management and mocked the ‘intelligent spending’ comment. Said Swanson is getting married today and his wife plays soccer in Chicago, but that won’t impact his decision. Said Swanson’s price just keeps going up, so no reason to rush a decision.
 
I think the SS are in a holding pattern right now with Correa/Boras waiting for more offers. It came out yesterday that SF hasn’t gotten to the point of offering Correa and that maybe the Mets and/or Yankees might jump in. It seems plausible that the Cubs got an offer to Boras at the Winter Meetings (possibly even a very good one), but there’s no imminent time deadline, so Boras/Correa will hold to see if other teams jump in. Assuming someone does (likely Giants at a minimum), that will get negotiations moving. I also assume that Dansby will wait for the Correa deal to get set, at which point he’ll be the only one of those 4 SS left, which should help him maximize the price.

It’s a popular thing to point to Jed and say he won’t spend, but if he doesn’t and can’t ultimately get this roster to where it needs to be, he’s being set up to take the blame. Tom Ricketts has said multiple times that there’s plenty of budget when he didn’t need to get that specific and hasn’t in the past. Crane Kenney came out yesterday and re-iterated that and also restated that Jed had more money available to him last offseason than he spent. I do think the money is there.

Incidentally, I think there are a lot of clues out there for what’s happening. At the winter meetings, Scott Boras gave what I think is a telling quote when asked about the Cubs - “The Tom Tom drum is finally beating again.” It’s one of Boras’s stupid riddle quotes, but Boras is certainly not a guy who gives owners unearned cover. Boras represents Bogaerts and Correa. There have been a number of reports from good sources that the Cubs were only ever in “kick the tires” mode with Bogaerts. That leads me to believe that the Cubs have sent a competitive offer for Correa.

Now the process just has to play out.
 
Their point was that everyone knows the money is there, but in this year’s market there is no intelligent spending, that shipped sailed
 
I certainly hope the cubs don’t offer anyone a 10 year contract. I realize Jason heyward is not Swanson but there is still a lesson to learn there. Its remarkable how baseball went from paying big money for free agents is bad to doing it again.
 
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dgordo said:
I certainly hope the cubs don’t offer anyone a 10 year contract. I realize Jason heyward is not Swanson but there is still a lesson to learn there. Its remarkable how baseball went from paying big money for free agents is bad to doing it again.
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10 year contracts certainly have risks, but using Jason Heyward as a comp is not a great way to look at it. If you’d have run projections for his production at the time of the deal, you’d see a range of outcomes from career-ending injury in his first month all the way to multiple MVPs. What actually happened was about a 5th percentile outcome and just about worst-case scenario where a major, career-impacting injury wasn’t involved.

If you simply will not go in on those long deals, then there is a class of free agent that you will just never sign - you won’t get that Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, Carlos Correa, Shohei Ohtani, etc., level star. I’m fine with the long contracts, but you’ll only be able to carry one or two at a time, unless you’re talking about major extensions to young stars buying out arb years and only paying them into their early 30s (like the Acuna deal, for example).

In any deal over 4-5 years or in any deal paying a guy into his late 30s or beyond, I need to see a high likelihood that there’s star level performance on the front side of the deal. Look at the Jon Lester deal. The Cubs gave him 6 years and paid him into the back half of his 30s and the last year or two were not nearly as good as the front of the deal, but that’s ok, he absolutely delivered on the front end of the deal and it was exactly what you want.

On a 10-year deal. I’d have to feel good about 4-5 years of star performance and then generally above-average performance through about year 7. After that you’re rolling the dice a bit, but given that the CBT threshold increases every year and baseball salary inflation, that money you’re committed to in years 8-10 will be a significantly lower portion of your player budget at that point. Let’s say Correa gets $30M AAV. In 2016, $30M was 3rd in baseball. Last year, it was 21st. This year, it will probably be outside the top 25 and by 2033, it might be outside the top 100 salaries.

Getting star power is smart spending and it’s going to drive revenue in a lot of areas.
 
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win1forthe said:
Their point was that everyone knows the money is there, but in this year’s market there is no intelligent spending, that shipped sailed
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Given the way star power attracts star power (look at the Padres right now), I could make a pretty good argument that even an overpay for a star talent in this market is intelligent spending. Kodai Senga is deciding where to play. Next year, Ohtani will likely be looking for a new home. Some guys will literally go to the place offering the largest contract, but a lot of top guys will hit the ballpark of the contract they’re looking for and then pick the team/winning situation they feel the best about.
 
win1forthe said:
Their point was that everyone knows the money is there, but in this year’s market there is no intelligent spending, that shipped sailed
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It seems like there is momentum for a team like the Giants to make an epically dumb signing because they have lost out on a few guys, and just think they need to unload some cash. The Nimmo deal is astonishingly bad to me. The DeGrom contract will most likely result in the Rangers GM being fired in 2-3 years. It was an insane contract to hand out to a guy with his injury history. Turner maybe works out, but you are still counting on him being highly productive until age 36, and I'm not sure a SS with his characteristics fits the bill. At least with Correa and Boegarts you have guys who look like they can slide to 3B and be productive.
 
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win1forthe said:
5 years/$75 million…all over twitter. Pretty disappointing that the Cubs couldn’t get this one done, especially with Stroman able to opt-out after this year
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I don’t say this to defend the Cubs, let’s set them aside. This deal screams “I want to play for the Mets”. In this market, where everything is going more years and 10s + millions more than anticipated, there’s no way the Mets got Senga for 5/$75M and 29 other teams all said, “Nope, not interested.”
 
I will add that not being aggressive enough last year did lead to this to some degree (I’m still surprised the Mets got him for that price). At some point, you have to show that you’ll pay a guy at/above market in order to draw top talent.
 
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hawkifann said:
I will add that not being aggressive enough last year did lead to this to some degree (I’m still surprised the Mets got him for that price). At some point, you have to show that you’ll pay a guy at/above market in order to draw top talent.
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The Cubs need to get their ‘Jon Lester’ signing at some point very soon. Lester gave the Cubs credibility. Happ and Hoerner aren’t drawing free agents in. So, yes, they’ll have to overpay. I see they are in on Mancini, great, but you aren’t building around him. And even if they sign Correa, it’s too late for this year.
 
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hawkifann said:
I don’t say this to defend the Cubs, let’s set them aside. This deal screams “I want to play for the Mets”. In this market, where everything is going more years and 10s + millions more than anticipated, there’s no way the Mets got Senga for 5/$75M and 29 other teams all said, “Nope, not interested.”
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I agree that he wanted to sign with the Mets, but if that’s the case where he could have turned down more money elsewhere, he needs a new agent, because years/$ are not an issue with the Mets.
 
ICWestfan said:
Any chance of signing Rodon?
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Have not really heard his name connected with the Cubs. Sounds like the Giants and Yankees are going to battle to sign him. He wants seven years and he might get it, probably from the Giants and not the Yankees.
 
The Cubs need to pay Correa whatever it takes. They have the money and desperately need the offense. I know these contracts look bad on the backend but the Cubs can afford to carry a player like this. They aren’t the Mets, Yankees, or Dodgers from a baseball perspective but they have the money to carry a bad contract when it gets to that point.
 
chalupa81 said:
The Cubs need to pay Correa whatever it takes. They have the money and desperately need the offense. I know these contracts look bad on the backend but the Cubs can afford to carry a player like this. They aren’t the Mets, Yankees, or Dodgers from a baseball perspective but they have the money to carry a bad contract when it gets to that point.
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They do have the money to carry a bad contract but the ricketts are basically poors among MLB owners and they are carrying a ton of debt. So yes they can carry a bad contract but likely only 1.
 
It’s reported several places, though, that money is not holding the Cubs back. Jed decided last year not use his full budget, he had a deal in place for Hosmer and others that would have cost $60 million, but the Padres backed out. He still has that money to spend, plus whatever is added to this year’s payroll. Maybe the length of contracts are the cause for hesitation, but they need that centerpiece. Personally, from a baseball perspective, I like Swanson more than Correa, but I think Correa would have more pull in getting guys to play in Chicago.
 
Haha. I’m trying not to be pissed while Correa is still out there. Boras is going to take this deal through it’s full course.
 
blhawk said:
That was a lot more than that arrogant douche deserves. Let him keep running his mouth, has to be embarrassing to watch his drunken sailor franchise spend like that year after year and then choke every year
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All I'm saying is with the notable exception of DeGrom, the big FAs are going to teams contending for the playoffs

Cub fans have pointed out a very "best case scenario" of the Cubs getting to 87-90 wins. I'd day the probability of that win total is <25%.

Cubs ain't getting any of the big guns.

It's not just a $$$ issue. Players want to play in the post season. Just watch the battle for Ohtani next winter.

BTW...I'd rather be a NYY fan watching my team in the post season vs a Cub's fan knowing his team is out by early September.
 
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