*****Official Cubs 2023 thread*****
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I wasn’t expecting to get in on Murphy, but I thought we’d get Vazquez. We shouldn’t have been outbid there.
Unless something changes, Jed isn’t giving out 8-10 year contracts. It’s too late to use Correa or Swanson to attract the better free agents in this cycle, if either are even interested.
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I'd rather you be a Yankees fan too. It's mid December, we'll see how it shakes out
The odd part is that Cub mgmt had the opportunity to capitalize on the WS title and stay competitive and chose to return to the old days as just the loveable losers.
I'd be ok if the Cubs don't get one of the coveted $200M SS left on the market. I'm actually more interested in getting Hoerner extended to a long, team-friendly contract. Who's to say he won't be a more productive player than Turner, Bogarts, etc. in 5 years? If he can avoid the injury bug, I think the chances are pretty good.
They should extend Hoerner and I’d be happy with fair. I don’t need team-friendly. I’ve done some math on Hoerner and he has 3 arb seasons left before FA. He’s projected to get $3M in arb this year and then I think he’d track similar to Happ plus some inflation - so $3M, $7-8M and then probably like $12M in his last year. To extend Hoerner, you’re going at least 5 years (arb + 2). You might add team options on the back end and maybe given him an opt-out at some point in exchange for another year or two.
The goal in these deals is to lock in price consistency for the team and also take risk off the table for the player. In a deal like this, Hoerner will not get his best-case scenario max contract for a 2026 free agent deal, but he should get a number that pays him solidly for the first couple FA years.
So, let’s say $25M for his arb years and then by 2026, a good FA SS is probably trending north of $20M per year. Stars will be going for $30M. See if you can price 2-3 years at $25M per. That would mean something like 5/$75M, with him getting FA shot at 30 or maybe 6/$100M. I think that gets close and then the two sides can go back and forth depending on what each side cares about most in terms of length, AAV, total dollars, opt-outs, options, no-trade clauses, etc.
But the Cubs should do that and also sign Correa.
Why are you here? Go start a Yankees thread where you can talk about how you overpaid on a too lengthy of a contract for a 31 year old (at start of season) slugger coming off a career year that he will not be able to duplicate. I mean, nine years for a 31 year old that is most definitely hit his peak and will now be on the downside of his career. Good job overpaying for past performance.
What have the Yankees done to actually improve the team for next season? Who have they added that will take them over the top? Because they won't win a WS by running it back with the same crew, while paying even more money for the same crew.
At least the Cubs are building a foundation and you can see the upward trajectory of the club. The Yankees have stagnated and that crew has reached its peak. Nothing but downhill for the Yanks from here.
What have the Yankees done to actually improve the team for next season? Who have they added that will take them over the top? Because they won't win a WS by running it back with the same crew, while paying even more money for the same crew.
At least the Cubs are building a foundation and you can see the upward trajectory of the club. The Yankees have stagnated and that crew has reached its peak. Nothing but downhill for the Yanks from here.
I'm fine with the Cubs not getting taken to the cleaners and taking on what will be an albatross contract. Let Boras's bidding war for the SS snare and handicap the future of another team. Cubs need to focus on the draft, development in the system, and signing reasonable free agents to supplement what they are doing.
The key for any team is you have to make the post season to have a chance.
The NYY are a flawed team. No argument from me.
Ten year contracts are ridiculous, but those 8+ year agreements are becoming more common.
They will continue to spend because mgmt knows they're competing for the entertainment $$$ in New York.
Again, it's better than being out of the race by Sept 5th of every season, imo.
This thread is entitled "2023 Cubs". I am giving my opinion on the 2023 Cubs.
You don't like contrarion views?
The Cubs had a solid second half last season of 39-31 and ended up the season on a 16-6 run. Injuries to starting pitching killed the team in the first half but overall the club is trending up. If the Cubs pick up 2023 where they left off in 2022 they'll be a playoff contender until the very end. And they'll have done it by building from within and not hampering their future by handing out ridiculous 9-10 year contracts.
Seems that way. Although that business model actually seemed to work for 108 years, largely because of their WGN telecasts they grew a very loyal fan base. Not sure Marquis Network and it's limitations will deliver the same effect unless they consistently put a competitive product on the field.
New York, LA, and Chicago are the three largest markets in the country.
It's simply unfathomable that teams in those cities shouldn't be competitive at least eight out of every ten years.
The local endorsements, alone, should be a draw for players.
Haha, OK old man. We know from your OT work the troll game is pretty good but you usually stick to reality based observations. Even a casual fan knows this 1.5 season reset is the only time the Cubs haven't been competitive in 8 seasons, your attempt to portray the Cubs as the Royals post title is falling flat on its face.
Get your shots in while you can, if my franchise was the biggest choker in the game I'd want to change the subject too😂
The Ricketts family counts on fans like you and your blind allegiance.
Check the thread title...why you keep deflecting and referencing the team I root for?
The Cubs operate in, arguably, the worst division in MLB, and aren't competitive year in and year out.
The Ricketts are operating in the perfect storm. The ISU environment of low expectations.
Not really. Last year was the lowest attendance in 25 years and Marquee ratings were down 20% year over year. No way Tom is just smiling and laughing about that. They should have dropped them more, but season ticket prices fell 5% for the first time in forever. This isn’t an environment where Tom is just sitting back and laughing.
You probably know better than I do, but pro sports ownership likely gets a significant part of their profits from media deals?
If that is the case, is "butts in seats" really a big deal?
It might be if areas around Wrigley are owned by the Ricketts.
It’s a mix. The Ricketts bought up a bunch of properties around Wrigleyville for one, so when there aren’t many butts in seats, you’re losing some restaurant and bar traffic, too. They obviously make a ton of money on media deals, but when one of your big ones is your own network and those ratings are falling significantly, that’s again another areas where not putting in a quality product stacks up.
He’s not going to go broke operating the Cubs this way (certainly not in near term), but from 2015-2019, the franchise was a cash machine for ownership. I’m sure nobody knows better than Tom how much revenue is being left on the table…and that number they’re missing surely dwarfs $50M per year $55M per year on a couple more stars.
So where do the stories of the team going hard after FAs originate?
Wishful thinking fans?
no idea but "intelligent spending" is the only thing they have said on the record.
Tom has said there is money to spend and Crane Kenney (head of biz ops) came out last week on The Score in an interview and doubled down saying the money Jed needs is there and that he didn’t spend all he could have last year because Jed didn’t like the years….so the idea of spending isn’t just coming from wishful fans, it’s coming right from the top.
Scott Boras even commented on it. At Winter Meetings (presumably after the Cubs dropped a fat Correa offer on him) said about the Cubs “The Tom Tom drum is finally beating again”. Boras has never been one to ever give any owner cover.
So I have no idea what their financial footing is now, but having the pandemic shut everything down in 2020 right after the Cubs were wrapping up the Wrigley renovations, buying up the Wrigleyville properties and launching Marquee, only to have no baseball for a while and then no fans for a while longer, there had to be days where it looked like potential nuclear winter….but money got flowing again last year with fans back in the stands and more people in the area hotels, restaurants and bars plus Marquee, albeit with falling ratings. The new sports book looks like it’ll be open soon, so there’s plenty of reason to think the Cubs will have a shit ton of revenue streams, especially if they have a popular product on the field.
My ears perked up last week when it was breathlessly reported on the Score last week about Tom telling Jed he could spend money. Could be a statement about the team having payroll available, and could be someone planting a narrative. It struck me as odd.
i know you disagree with me but i dont see the cubs doing what it takes (10 years) to get a top free agent.
Well, fortunately, we should get an answer before the holidays one way or the other. Sounds like the Swanson market is starting to sizzle a bit, which means there must be action on the Correa market because I think Correa signs first.
He’s almost certainly the next best position player available. He’s also an elite defender who would allow Nico to slide over to 2B where he’s been an elite defender. Swanson-Hoerner-Bellinger would be an elite up-the-middle D for a starting staff that pitches to contact. They’d need to find more offense elsewhere, but that D will play….and while Swanson is no Correa, he’s not the mix of assorted crap the Cubs played at 2B last year, either.
Yeah but at a 200+ commitment. No way. In his 5 full seasons. He was only an above average hitter for his position twice. The other 3 sub 80. That's not great. Elvis Andrus or Drury would be better value.
2 yrs around 110. Other 3 around 80. That's a good size spread for a 20 million plus a yr guy.
I get it. If they don't get either, then they don't need a SS. Leave Hoerner and go get some combo of Segura, Turner, Mancini, Drury. Maybe trade for Fried & d'Arnaud.
I honestly thought the Cubs would make some moves this offseason. Instead this is like watching the Packers front office at work where they do next to nothing to improve. Cubs need a SS and pitching, they ignore one and settle for scrap heap on another. Packers need a WR and TE, they sign a street FA no one else wanted and and just go with whatever TE they have on their practice squad.
Other teams in their division actually make moves to get better and these two just look on and wonder what went wrong at the end of the year.
Other teams in their division actually make moves to get better and these two just look on and wonder what went wrong at the end of the year.
This lack of spending is all on Jed. He does not want to go 8 years on any contract. If you read between the lines, though, he is weary of signing a big time contract, length and money, and having it not work out and then have ownership stop him from doing that again in the future. And I will continue to say my first choice is Swanson over Correa.
Basically if u don't sign Correia. Cubs shouldn't give out a 9 figure deal this year.
The Phillies, Mets, Cardinals, Braves, and Padres have all made fairly significant upgrades so far. And the Dodgers are the Dodgers.
You're either naive or ignoring the obvious. The odds of having the same six teams in 2023 as 2022 have to be extremely high.
Cubs goal will be 81-81.
Sorry for reality.
There was a report out today that the Braves might be taking offers on Fried and d’Arnaud. d’Arnauld makes sense after the Murphy trade, but as it was reported, he’s not far from free agency and the Braves aren’t sure they can/will sign him.
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