Voting advocates and lawyers are raising five categories of concerns in the runup to the midterms, from fears of rising voter intimidation to anxiety that election deniers will spark violence to worries that spurious litigation will prevent timely certification of results.
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First, and perhaps most troubling, the nearly 300 GOP election deniers/liars on the ballot are likely to whip up anger about a “rigged” system or “stolen election,” priming aggrieved supporters for violence. Many high-profile Republicans have refused to pledge to respect the results. Given Republicans’ embrace of the “big lie” in 2020, we should prepare for a plethora of baseless accusations, some of which could incite unstable individuals.
And because these candidates are so fixated on the voting fraud narrative, some might continue to denigrate the system even if they win (as Donald Trump did in 2016), claiming they were cheated out of even bigger victories. Democratic election lawyer Marc Elias tells me, “There’s no way for them to get off the election denial treadmill.”
Likewise, David Becker, founder of the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation and Research, tells me, “I am concerned about what happens after 8 p.m. on election night, when it’s clear that some losing candidates are preparing to delegitimize a process that was secure and understood, and make claims that may be intended to spark anger and violence.” He expects “false claims that votes should be counted on election night, though we’ve never done that, and it has always appropriately taken days or even weeks to count all the ballots.” He adds, “These claims could lead to some volatile situations in some states, and potentially political violence.”
If one had any doubt about the incendiary atmosphere, consider the crazed individual who broke into House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s house, assaulted her husband and vowed to wait for Pelosi (“Where is Nancy?”), all too reminiscent of the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol rioters. This was almost certainly an assassination attempt, the culmination of years of misogynistic demonization of the person second in line to the presidency and routine use of violent images and rhetoric. When Republicans such as Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin turn the assault into a punchline or House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) remains silent, they normalize violence.
Karen Tumulty: I'm sorry I said nice things about Glenn Youngkin
Second, voter intimidation remains a real factor. In Arizona, U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi rejected a complaint against Clean Elections USA for gathering near drop boxes in Maricopa County and following voters and taking photos and videos of them. He likewise refused to bar groups related to the Oath Keepers, a far-right militia, from doing similar things in Arizona’s Yavapai County. An emergency appeal is pending with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit. (Briefing will take place over the next day or so, but voting rights advocates are confident the 9th Circuit will reverse.)
Likewise in Florida, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis’s administration carried out dramatic arrests of mostly Black residents, an unmistakable message to voters who might be uncertain as to whether they can legally vote. (The Post reported, “Those arrested — most of whom are Black — are all accused of violating a state law prohibiting those convicted of murder or felony sexual offenses from voting after completing their sentences. The arrests … raised questions about whether DeSantis and his election police unit were weaponizing their new powers to gain political advantage.”) Even if these voters are exonerated, Republicans’ actions could chill turnout — the essence of voter suppression.
Lizette Alvarez: DeSantis unleashes the Florida voter-fraud squad. Perplexity ensues.
Third, the MAGA disinformation machine will be as active as ever. Twitter is in the hands of Elon Musk, whose willingness to take down posts that intimidate or mislead voters is under serious question. When media outlets say the truth of a specious claim is “unknown,” or that a complaint about fraud is “so far unsupported,” they grant election deniers a bogus aura of credibility. Responsible outlets should remind viewers that an election reversal based on recounts of statewide races is exceedingly rare when hundreds of votes separated the candidates, let alone when the gap is in the thousands. (One survey of 5,778 statewide races between 2000 and 2019 found only three reversals.)
Fourth, Republicans have intentionally injected uncertainty and delay into the system. Demanding vote counting by hand (as Republicans did in Nye County, Nev., until the state Supreme Court stepped in) or refusing to allow election officials to open and count hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots in advance of Nov. 8 (as Republicans did in Pennsylvania) are just two ways to stave off a sense of finality. The longer the process goes on and the more baseless complaints emerge, the greater the risk of delegitimizing the election — precisely the aim.
In demanding hand recounts and wanting to shut down secure drop boxes, Republicans are in fact making voting less secure and reliable. It’s almost as if the last thing Republicans want is objective, verifiable and sound results.
Finally, Republicans have already weaponized the legal system. Former Trump phony-elector plotter John Eastman and others, as well as MAGA cohorts such as Cleta Mitchell, have been recruiting and training partisans to gin up challenges at the polls. Meanwhile, dozens of lawsuits trying to restrict voting (e.g., disallow drop boxes) have been filed.
In response, advocates of voting rights are forced to play whack-a-mole. As Elias points out, “In Georgia, these laws have enabled activists to file mass challenges, attempting to strip the rights of tens of thousands of citizens to vote.” Elias tells me the most recent batch of challenges are demands (filed barely a week before the election) to hire more Republicans for election boards in Michigan and elsewhere.
The attempt to “flood the zone” with challenges gives the GOP the opportunity to throw everything at the wall and see what disqualifications can stick. By selectively challenging ballots in areas with high numbers of minority or college student voters, Republicans aim to game the system.
In short, we face an array of threats to the integrity of our democratic system and the public’s trust in elections. Responsible politicians can prevent further damage to democracy if they denounce specious claims of fraud and any incitement to violent action. In 2020, Republicans worked to discredit the election starting months before the vote, then litigated, then focused the pent-up rage into violence on Jan. 6, 2021. Elias says he fears a similar pattern this year. The mainstream media can resist the temptation to fan disinformation. And prosecutors, law enforcement and judges must strive to ensure that every legal vote is counted correctly.
That sort of all-hands-on-deck effort is how we preserve democracy for at least one more election cycle.
Sign up for a weekly roundup of thought-provoking ideas and debates
First, and perhaps most troubling, the nearly 300 GOP election deniers/liars on the ballot are likely to whip up anger about a “rigged” system or “stolen election,” priming aggrieved supporters for violence. Many high-profile Republicans have refused to pledge to respect the results. Given Republicans’ embrace of the “big lie” in 2020, we should prepare for a plethora of baseless accusations, some of which could incite unstable individuals.
And because these candidates are so fixated on the voting fraud narrative, some might continue to denigrate the system even if they win (as Donald Trump did in 2016), claiming they were cheated out of even bigger victories. Democratic election lawyer Marc Elias tells me, “There’s no way for them to get off the election denial treadmill.”
Likewise, David Becker, founder of the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation and Research, tells me, “I am concerned about what happens after 8 p.m. on election night, when it’s clear that some losing candidates are preparing to delegitimize a process that was secure and understood, and make claims that may be intended to spark anger and violence.” He expects “false claims that votes should be counted on election night, though we’ve never done that, and it has always appropriately taken days or even weeks to count all the ballots.” He adds, “These claims could lead to some volatile situations in some states, and potentially political violence.”
If one had any doubt about the incendiary atmosphere, consider the crazed individual who broke into House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s house, assaulted her husband and vowed to wait for Pelosi (“Where is Nancy?”), all too reminiscent of the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol rioters. This was almost certainly an assassination attempt, the culmination of years of misogynistic demonization of the person second in line to the presidency and routine use of violent images and rhetoric. When Republicans such as Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin turn the assault into a punchline or House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) remains silent, they normalize violence.
Karen Tumulty: I'm sorry I said nice things about Glenn Youngkin
Second, voter intimidation remains a real factor. In Arizona, U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi rejected a complaint against Clean Elections USA for gathering near drop boxes in Maricopa County and following voters and taking photos and videos of them. He likewise refused to bar groups related to the Oath Keepers, a far-right militia, from doing similar things in Arizona’s Yavapai County. An emergency appeal is pending with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit. (Briefing will take place over the next day or so, but voting rights advocates are confident the 9th Circuit will reverse.)
Likewise in Florida, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis’s administration carried out dramatic arrests of mostly Black residents, an unmistakable message to voters who might be uncertain as to whether they can legally vote. (The Post reported, “Those arrested — most of whom are Black — are all accused of violating a state law prohibiting those convicted of murder or felony sexual offenses from voting after completing their sentences. The arrests … raised questions about whether DeSantis and his election police unit were weaponizing their new powers to gain political advantage.”) Even if these voters are exonerated, Republicans’ actions could chill turnout — the essence of voter suppression.
Lizette Alvarez: DeSantis unleashes the Florida voter-fraud squad. Perplexity ensues.
Third, the MAGA disinformation machine will be as active as ever. Twitter is in the hands of Elon Musk, whose willingness to take down posts that intimidate or mislead voters is under serious question. When media outlets say the truth of a specious claim is “unknown,” or that a complaint about fraud is “so far unsupported,” they grant election deniers a bogus aura of credibility. Responsible outlets should remind viewers that an election reversal based on recounts of statewide races is exceedingly rare when hundreds of votes separated the candidates, let alone when the gap is in the thousands. (One survey of 5,778 statewide races between 2000 and 2019 found only three reversals.)
Fourth, Republicans have intentionally injected uncertainty and delay into the system. Demanding vote counting by hand (as Republicans did in Nye County, Nev., until the state Supreme Court stepped in) or refusing to allow election officials to open and count hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots in advance of Nov. 8 (as Republicans did in Pennsylvania) are just two ways to stave off a sense of finality. The longer the process goes on and the more baseless complaints emerge, the greater the risk of delegitimizing the election — precisely the aim.
In demanding hand recounts and wanting to shut down secure drop boxes, Republicans are in fact making voting less secure and reliable. It’s almost as if the last thing Republicans want is objective, verifiable and sound results.
Finally, Republicans have already weaponized the legal system. Former Trump phony-elector plotter John Eastman and others, as well as MAGA cohorts such as Cleta Mitchell, have been recruiting and training partisans to gin up challenges at the polls. Meanwhile, dozens of lawsuits trying to restrict voting (e.g., disallow drop boxes) have been filed.
In response, advocates of voting rights are forced to play whack-a-mole. As Elias points out, “In Georgia, these laws have enabled activists to file mass challenges, attempting to strip the rights of tens of thousands of citizens to vote.” Elias tells me the most recent batch of challenges are demands (filed barely a week before the election) to hire more Republicans for election boards in Michigan and elsewhere.
The attempt to “flood the zone” with challenges gives the GOP the opportunity to throw everything at the wall and see what disqualifications can stick. By selectively challenging ballots in areas with high numbers of minority or college student voters, Republicans aim to game the system.
In short, we face an array of threats to the integrity of our democratic system and the public’s trust in elections. Responsible politicians can prevent further damage to democracy if they denounce specious claims of fraud and any incitement to violent action. In 2020, Republicans worked to discredit the election starting months before the vote, then litigated, then focused the pent-up rage into violence on Jan. 6, 2021. Elias says he fears a similar pattern this year. The mainstream media can resist the temptation to fan disinformation. And prosecutors, law enforcement and judges must strive to ensure that every legal vote is counted correctly.
That sort of all-hands-on-deck effort is how we preserve democracy for at least one more election cycle.
