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Penn State vs Iowa

Spoons said:
If we have Teemer I see us winning 3 matches with a punchers at 2 more. If it was at Carver I would feel better about a Possible 5 to 5 but it’s over there and I am hoping we get 3 wins. As crazy as it sounds they could put up a goose egg on us I think it would have to be a perfect night for them but it is possible.
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Which 5?
 
Spoons said:
Probably giving up bonus pts at 125 & 141. 149 is definitely 1 that I think is winnable and something in my gut says 184 is winnable. Likely to happen probably not just a gut feeling. Stallfish is going to do what he does best(nothing) which might actually work in our favor. Either way I don’t see a lot points being scored in this one. Parco is looking better each week so we will see. As I said earlier it’s not that I think we are favored or should win just that we have a chance. Hwt could get ugly as well.
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4 time national champ, 10-0 with 100% bonus point wins on the year = doing nothing? That’s great analysis
 
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USPMAN said:
4 time national champ, 10-0 with 100% bonus point wins on the year = doing nothing? That’s great analysis
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Not questioning your logic and certainly not betting against Star though I hope he loses. However, if you check out his competition they're not all that impressive as far as rankings with the exception being the 10-1 score against the kid from MO. I think Gabe or Ferrari will keep it to a decision.
 
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Nashville_Hawkeye said:
Not questioning your logic and certainly not betting against Star though I hope he loses. However, if you check out his competition they're not all that impressive as far as rankings with the exception being the 10-1 score against the kid from MO. I think Gabe or Ferrari will keep it to a decision.
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You are correct. But maybe also worth noting he was 10 for 11 bonus last year with 9 falls or tech falls till injuring his knee.

So we’re looking at a guy that’s bonused 20 of his last 21 opponents (and 36 of his last 45) when wrestling without a significant knee injury. All but three of those being a fall or tech fall. I get why people don’t like him. But “stallfish” isn’t it.
 
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Steevo36 said:
Read all what he said. If you can't understand after that I don't know how to help you.
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He very explicitly referred to Starocci as a "transfer". The next sentence mentions Starocci's supposed NIL deal but does not erase what is written in the previous sentence.

Reading comprehension is an issue here, but not on someone else's part.
 
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Spoons said:
If we have Teemer I see us winning 3 matches with a punchers at 2 more. If it was at Carver I would feel better about a Possible 5 to 5 but it’s over there and I am hoping we get 3 wins. As crazy as it sounds they could put up a goose egg on us I think it would have to be a perfect night for them but it is possible.
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Much better possibility PSU throws a shutout than Iowa wins 5 individual matches.
A perfect night for the Hawks is 3 wins, a more than likely outcome is 1 maybe 2 wins. I think the Lions are winning 36-3, but hoping for 39-0.
 
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mcpat said:
You are correct. But maybe also worth noting he was 10 for 11 bonus last year with 9 falls or tech falls till injuring his knee.

So we’re looking at a guy that’s bonused 20 of his last 21 opponents (and 36 of his last 45) when wrestling without a significant knee injury. All but three of those being a fall or tech fall. I get why people don’t like him. But “stallfish” isn’t it.
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I'm not questioning Star's abilities. He's a 4-time champ...period. I'm just saying the competition this year hasn't been all that. He beat the 9th ranked guy by 9; Angelo beat the 12th ranked guy by 6. I think whichever guy we put on the mat will keep it to a decision.
 
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Nashville_Hawkeye said:
I'm not questioning Star's abilities. He's a 4-time champ...period. I'm just saying the competition this year hasn't been all that. He beat the 9th ranked guy by 9; Angelo beat the 12th ranked guy by 6. I think whichever guy we put on the mat will keep it to a decision.
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Did you see the All-Star match? I know it doesn't count for the records, but it happened this year and therefore counts in any discussion about competition.
 
Nashville_Hawkeye said:
Not questioning your logic and certainly not betting against Star though I hope he loses. However, if you check out his competition they're not all that impressive as far as rankings with the exception being the 10-1 score against the kid from MO. I think Gabe or Ferrari will keep it to a decision.
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Yes I agree whoever you guys send out keeps it close with star…..I’d be somewhat shocked if he bonuses either of them
 
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Agoodnap said:
Did you see the All-Star match? I know it doesn't count for the records, but it happened this year and therefore counts in any discussion about competition.
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Yes I did (link below). The reason I didn't mention it was because I didn't want to seem petty or combative against the guy who posted that Star had won all his matches this year by bonus. Clearly barring injury or some insane surprise coming from Gabe or Angelo, 184 is a two-horse race which for my money could go either way. Plott seems much better than all the rest (based on his performance this year), but nowhere close to Star or Keck.

 
USPMAN said:
You guys take 133 and 197…….i think 149, 157(if teemer) are the only tossups…..psu takes the rest
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I think some want to at least give Parco, Caliendo and Kueter a chance, simply due to pedigree. Since there is no such thing as "absolute" zero :), here is a percentage based(solely my opinion) look at each weight:

125: Cruz <1%
133: Ayala 75%
141: Block 1% I think a fully healthy Block could confound Bartlett with his length and maybe keep it close enough to steal it late, but I still say 1/100 for now.
149: Parco 10% Parco looks great, but his history against Van Ness sucks and Van Ness has looked like a monster all season....
157: Teemer 50/50 If 100% healthy I would put his odds closer to Ayala, but I have no idea how he looks IF he wrestles this match.
165: Caliendo 5% He is too good not to give him a 1/20 chance. However, Mess has dominated him so far and I doubt that changes.
174: Kennedy/Brands 5% Haines is another monster where I could only maybe see size play a factor against more Brands than Kennedy, where Brands could do something similar to Block keeping it close and stealing it late. Still, I would pick Haines every time...
184: Arnold 1% I love this kid. He is absolutely my favorite wrestler on the team. But, no matter how much you hate Starocci, a freshman 174 wrestling up is in for a world of hurt. I would cheer harder for him than anyone else. But, giving him even a 1/100 chance is probably a bit biased....
197: Buchanan 75% Barr is a stud, but Buchanan has arguably looked like the best guy in the weight class. For now, I would pick him 3 out of 4. But, that 1 could very well be at NCAA's where you just can't ignore their track record.
285: Kueter 2% This one hurts me, because I just don't want to give a World Champ such terrible odds. However, Kerkvliet is a TERRRRRIBLE matchup and has already proven it when they wrestled last season. I am sure Ben has improved since then, but enough to overcome a 9-1 beating? I don't think so...

So, I could see how true hardcore Iowa fans could get to 5 wins, with the foundation being Ayala, Teemer and Buchanan and then some kind of combo between Parco, Caliendo, Kennedy Brands and Kueter. With that said, I would probably put the over under at 2. We don't even know if Teemer will wrestle or what shape he will be in. I could see them getting lucky and maybe catching 4 wins, but I sure as hell wouldn't personally say 5, and forced to pick, I would go with 2...
 
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MSU158 said:
I think some want to at least give Parco, Caliendo and Kueter a chance, simply due to pedigree. Since there is no such thing as "absolute" zero :), here is a percentage based(solely my opinion) look at each weight:

125: Cruz <1%
133: Ayala 75%
141: Block 1% I think a fully healthy Block could confound Bartlett with his length and maybe keep it close enough to steal it late, but I still say 1/100 for now.
149: Parco 10% Parco looks great, but his history against Van Ness sucks and Van Ness has looked like a monster all season....
157: Teemer 50/50 If 100% healthy I would put his odds closer to Ayala, but I have no idea how he looks IF he wrestles this match.
165: Caliendo 5% He is too good not to give him a 1/20 chance. However, Mess has dominated him so far and I doubt that changes.
174: Kennedy/Brands 5% Haines is another monster where I could only maybe see size play a factor against more Brands than Kennedy, where Brands could do something similar to Block keeping it close and stealing it late. Still, I would pick Haines every time...
184: Arnold 1% I love this kid. He is absolutely my favorite wrestler on the team. But, no matter how much you hate Starocci, a freshman 174 wrestling up is in for a world of hurt. I would cheer harder for him than anyone else. But, giving him even a 1/100 chance is probably a bit biased....
197: Buchanan 75% Barr is a stud, but Buchanan has arguably looked like the best guy in the weight class. For now, I would pick him 3 out of 4. But, that 1 could very well be at NCAA's where you just can't ignore their track record.
285: Kueter 2% This one hurts me, because I just don't want to give a World Champ such terrible odds. However, Kerkvliet is a TERRRRRIBLE matchup and has already proven it when they wrestled last season. I am sure Ben has improved since then, but enough to overcome a 9-1 beating? I don't think so...

So, I could see how true hardcore Iowa fans could get to 5 wins, with the foundation being Ayala, Teemer and Buchanan and then some kind of combo between Parco, Caliendo, Kennedy Brands and Kueter. With that said, I would probably put the over under at 2. We don't even know if Teemer will wrestle or what shape he will be in. I could see them getting lucky and maybe catching 4 wins, but I sure as hell wouldn't personally say 5, and forced to pick, I would go with 2...
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I think your numbers are pretty fair, though I'm going to bump Parco up to 30% on my end. I think he has a respectable chance despite his loss to SVN 2 years ago. You speak about their history like they've battled more than once, but I only found once, a 7-2 decision. As for 74 and 84, I'm still hoping Tom pulls a maneuver like he did against Iowa State last year and mixes things up a bit. I'd love to see Gabe go 74 against Levi and Angelo go 84 and see what he can do against Star. I'm not predicting either would win, but I'd like to see if they can keep it close.
 
Nashville_Hawkeye said:
I think your numbers are pretty fair, though I'm going to bump Parco up to 30% on my end. I think he has a respectable chance despite his loss to SVN 2 years ago. You speak about their history like they've battled more than once, but I only found once, a 7-2 decision. As for 74 and 84, I'm still hoping Tom pulls a maneuver like he did against Iowa State last year and mixes things up a bit. I'd love to see Gabe go 74 against Levi and Angelo go 84 and see what he can do against Star. I'm not predicting either would win, but I'd like to see if they can keep it close.
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If it’s their intention for Gabe to wrestle postseason at 184 maybe not the best idea to be a 174lber right before big tens but yes the matchups would be fun
 
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Nashville_Hawkeye said:
I think your numbers are pretty fair, though I'm going to bump Parco up to 30% on my end. I think he has a respectable chance despite his loss to SVN 2 years ago. You speak about their history like they've battled more than once, but I only found once, a 7-2 decision. As for 74 and 84, I'm still hoping Tom pulls a maneuver like he did against Iowa State last year and mixes things up a bit. I'd love to see Gabe go 74 against Levi and Angelo go 84 and see what he can do against Star. I'm not predicting either would win, but I'd like to see if they can keep it close.
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He also beat him 5-1 at the All Star Classic in 2023...The bigger problem is that version of Van Ness was MUCH more beatable than he is now and he very much controlled both matchups back then. Parco will have had to improve considerably since then to have a better chance than I gave him and I just don't see it with how well Van Ness is wrestling now...

Now, I would be VERY happy for Kyle to prove me wrong, but I think Van Ness wins it all at 149 and I wouldn't be surprised if he does it without even having a very close match...
 
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Nashville_Hawkeye said:
I think your numbers are pretty fair, though I'm going to bump Parco up to 30% on my end. I think he has a respectable chance despite his loss to SVN 2 years ago. You speak about their history like they've battled more than once, but I only found once, a 7-2 decision. As for 74 and 84, I'm still hoping Tom pulls a maneuver like he did against Iowa State last year and mixes things up a bit. I'd love to see Gabe go 74 against Levi and Angelo go 84 and see what he can do against Star. I'm not predicting either would win, but I'd like to see if they can keep it close.
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To wrestle 174 today Arnold would have had to weigh 175.97 or lower this past Sunday. I do not know what he weighed in at, but given that he wrestled 184 I would be surprised if it was low enough for him to wrestle 174 tonight.
 
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MSU158 said:
I think some want to at least give Parco, Caliendo and Kueter a chance, simply due to pedigree. Since there is no such thing as "absolute" zero :), here is a percentage based(solely my opinion) look at each weight:

125: Cruz <1%
133: Ayala 75%
141: Block 1% I think a fully healthy Block could confound Bartlett with his length and maybe keep it close enough to steal it late, but I still say 1/100 for now.
149: Parco 10% Parco looks great, but his history against Van Ness sucks and Van Ness has looked like a monster all season....
157: Teemer 50/50 If 100% healthy I would put his odds closer to Ayala, but I have no idea how he looks IF he wrestles this match.
165: Caliendo 5% He is too good not to give him a 1/20 chance. However, Mess has dominated him so far and I doubt that changes.
174: Kennedy/Brands 5% Haines is another monster where I could only maybe see size play a factor against more Brands than Kennedy, where Brands could do something similar to Block keeping it close and stealing it late. Still, I would pick Haines every time...
184: Arnold 1% I love this kid. He is absolutely my favorite wrestler on the team. But, no matter how much you hate Starocci, a freshman 174 wrestling up is in for a world of hurt. I would cheer harder for him than anyone else. But, giving him even a 1/100 chance is probably a bit biased....
197: Buchanan 75% Barr is a stud, but Buchanan has arguably looked like the best guy in the weight class. For now, I would pick him 3 out of 4. But, that 1 could very well be at NCAA's where you just can't ignore their track record.
285: Kueter 2% This one hurts me, because I just don't want to give a World Champ such terrible odds. However, Kerkvliet is a TERRRRRIBLE matchup and has already proven it when they wrestled last season. I am sure Ben has improved since then, but enough to overcome a 9-1 beating? I don't think so...

So, I could see how true hardcore Iowa fans could get to 5 wins, with the foundation being Ayala, Teemer and Buchanan and then some kind of combo between Parco, Caliendo, Kennedy Brands and Kueter. With that said, I would probably put the over under at 2. We don't even know if Teemer will wrestle or what shape he will be in. I could see them getting lucky and maybe catching 4 wins, but I sure as hell wouldn't personally say 5, and forced to pick, I would go with 2...
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By your math, the odds of all 5 of your most likely wins happening is 0.15% (= 75% * 75% * 50% * 10% * 5%) or about 1 in 750.
 
Random4598375 said:
By your math, the odds of all 5 of your most likely wins happening is 0.15% (= 75% * 75% * 50% * 10% * 5%) or about 1 in 750.
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I am well aware. If you notice I said I would pick 2 wins and I made SURE to clarify that those picking 5 were true, hardcore Iowa fans. Just because I get why they could pick 5, doesn't mean I think the odds are ANYWHERE close to saying they should...
 
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MSU158 said:
He also beat him 5-1 at the All Star Classic in 2023...The bigger problem is that version of Van Ness was MUCH more beatable than he is now and he very much controlled both matchups back then. Parco will have had to improve considerably since then to have a better chance than I gave him and I just don't see it with how well Van Ness is wrestling now...

Now, I would be VERY happy for Kyle to prove me wrong, but I think Van Ness wins it all at 149 and I wouldn't be surprised if he does it without even having a very close match...
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I’m hoping Parco proves you wrong as well! ;) And I totally forgot about the all-star classic…thank you for clarifying.
 
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MSU158 said:
I think some want to at least give Parco, Caliendo and Kueter a chance, simply due to pedigree. Since there is no such thing as "absolute" zero :), here is a percentage based(solely my opinion) look at each weight:

125: Cruz <1%
133: Ayala 75%
141: Block 1% I think a fully healthy Block could confound Bartlett with his length and maybe keep it close enough to steal it late, but I still say 1/100 for now.
149: Parco 10% Parco looks great, but his history against Van Ness sucks and Van Ness has looked like a monster all season....
157: Teemer 50/50 If 100% healthy I would put his odds closer to Ayala, but I have no idea how he looks IF he wrestles this match.
165: Caliendo 5% He is too good not to give him a 1/20 chance. However, Mess has dominated him so far and I doubt that changes.
174: Kennedy/Brands 5% Haines is another monster where I could only maybe see size play a factor against more Brands than Kennedy, where Brands could do something similar to Block keeping it close and stealing it late. Still, I would pick Haines every time...
184: Arnold 1% I love this kid. He is absolutely my favorite wrestler on the team. But, no matter how much you hate Starocci, a freshman 174 wrestling up is in for a world of hurt. I would cheer harder for him than anyone else. But, giving him even a 1/100 chance is probably a bit biased....
197: Buchanan 75% Barr is a stud, but Buchanan has arguably looked like the best guy in the weight class. For now, I would pick him 3 out of 4. But, that 1 could very well be at NCAA's where you just can't ignore their track record.
285: Kueter 2% This one hurts me, because I just don't want to give a World Champ such terrible odds. However, Kerkvliet is a TERRRRRIBLE matchup and has already proven it when they wrestled last season. I am sure Ben has improved since then, but enough to overcome a 9-1 beating? I don't think so...

So, I could see how true hardcore Iowa fans could get to 5 wins, with the foundation being Ayala, Teemer and Buchanan and then some kind of combo between Parco, Caliendo, Kennedy Brands and Kueter. With that said, I would probably put the over under at 2. We don't even know if Teemer will wrestle or what shape he will be in. I could see them getting lucky and maybe catching 4 wins, but I sure as hell wouldn't personally say 5, and forced to pick, I would go with 2...
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Really looking forward to seeing how BK looks against Feldman. If he can win that or keep it within a point or two I'll feel better about PSU. Still don't see him winning against Kerk, but I'll feel better.
 
Nashville_Hawkeye said:
Not questioning your logic and certainly not betting against Star though I hope he loses. However, if you check out his competition they're not all that impressive as far as rankings with the exception being the 10-1 score against the kid from MO. I think Gabe or Ferrari will keep it to a decision.
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You do know he is a 6th year senior. Maybe you should look back a year or four, and see how he has done to get a better sense for how rediculous you are being. Or then again, keep digging.

PS - he also beat a national champ this year as well if you want a better reference point.
 
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