Hamiti is a leach. Not many do great against him. Brands isn't scared
Recruiting
- Thread starter IAChief32
- Start date
Come on you can't say that with the current available information. There's a long list of AA's out there that battled injuries, and never regained form. He didn't wrestle last year, and missed most of this year.
Sunday is a huge match to see where Nelson is(if he gets the nod.) There are so many variables at play.
1. Nelson is a full size 174. Advantage Nelson This is a big advantage against the top 4 or 5 guys.
2. 100% healthy Nelson has better defense. Advantage Nelson. Does 70% Nelson ? Does 90% Nelson? Where will he be at physically? To be determined, but by far the single most important criteria, and nobody knows this.
3. PK better chance at bonus points. Advantage PK
4. PK less chance of upset to low ranked guy IMO This can be argued. Advantage PK
5. PK guaranteed to make NCAA regardless of conference performance Advantage PK. What if Nelson doesn't finish in a qualifying spot? Does he have the criteria for an at large? This is another huge part of the criteria. @jrod65 maybe can chime in.
6. Previously AA'd BIg advantage Nelson. This is the biggest advantage of all. However, goes back to #2 to know how much weight to carry here.
Ideally Nelson goes Sunday and beats Hamiti. Otherwise I'm glad it's not my call. I love both the guys, and none of what I posted should be taken as me choosing one over the other. Just trying to be objective.
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Excellent post acuhawk. I agree with everything you said. 100% healthy Brands is the choice imo. Problem is we have only seen that for 1 NCAA in his career. What will Nelson be at health wise in 3 weeks? Is a 80% NB better than PK? I don't know. NB wrestles a lot more close matches than PK, but all the matches against AAs are going to be close for both guys. Who is more comfortable in those situations? Who is more reliable in those matches? There is a lot going into and riding on this decision and I certainly don't envy Tom in making it? Unless the guy that goes for Iowa exceeds expectations at NCAAs, he will have chosen the "wrong guy" no matter who goes. It is going to be a damned if you do and damned if you don't type situation no matter what. NB beating Hamiti would seal the deal imo, but who knows if he even wrestles him Sunday!
That's my opinion I think he has the better chance to AA. I don't care about credibility it's my opinion. The staff gets to watch them in the room as well so they know how both are looking. Have you asked around about how it goes when they wrestle each other?
At his core, Kennedy is a volume shooter. It's what made him elite in high school and has scored him a bunch of bonus against non elite opponents in college. Aggression is not his problem. His two problem areas are shooting himself out of the match against guys (they'll let him) with elite defense which allows them to nail him on reshots. He then gets late in the third down by a couple of points and doesn't have the gas to close in the last 30 secs. To win imo, he needs to be more tactical, picking and choosing his spots. A plus is that he has gotten much better at riding.
I edited out the credibility part. I think you're strongly discounting the facts of how many AA's that missed time never regained form. The list is so long, and you have no idea what form Nelson is in. That's the crux of the problem with your definitive statement. I don't put much weight in h2h room battles. I've seen Glosser whip bull in the room multiple times. 100% Nelson is a tough match up for PK because he can match PK's physicality and probable exceeds his endurance. In fact, endurance is probably another advantage I could've listed in NB favor. PK goes so hard he's low in the tank at times. Looks like Chief summed it up pretty well.
If you're asking for more clarification on at-large process, @jmadden1998 is probably a better resource on that. I know they look at multiple things among those not qualified; H2h, quality wins, win %, ranking, common opponent, etc. No idea how heavily each are weighted, though.
It's a data point, I guess. But probably isn't something to think about much. There shouldn't be even a tiny concern about not qualifying at B1Gs.
If you are asking my opinion on who should be the guy for postseason, I'm truly fine with either. I see their floor and ceiling as exactly the same, 4th-rd16. Cant picture either knocking off the top 3 and both having battles in r16/ bloodround to make the podium.
Since that's a bit of a cop out, even though it's true, lol. I'll say this-
If I were forced to choose, I'm going with the guy that has AA'd before.
No worries. Madden is a very knowledgeable poster, so I'm perfectly happy with getting misplaced credit for his work.😁
Still think it's your burner.
My opinion…
Kennedy is more likely to pick up a bonus point win or two. Brands is more likely to get on the podium. I like Nelson’s defense, late match gas tank, and overall athleticism a touch more. On average they probably score about the same amount of points, but Nelson has a bit more upside if he’s willing to shoot. Give me the upside as neither guy has a floor of 5+ points.
Kennedy is more likely to pick up a bonus point win or two. Brands is more likely to get on the podium. I like Nelson’s defense, late match gas tank, and overall athleticism a touch more. On average they probably score about the same amount of points, but Nelson has a bit more upside if he’s willing to shoot. Give me the upside as neither guy has a floor of 5+ points.
I can see you through your phone, tablet, computer and neighbors doorbell camera when you log on to HR.
Yes. Top 8 get AA.
I wasn't arguing for or against Nelson or PK. Just pointing out that it isn't offense that separates the two.To be eligible for at-large consideration, a wrestler must participate at least two (2) matches in his respective conference tournament AND, meet or exceed any two of the following criteria: .700 Win%, Top 33 RPI, Top 33 Coaches Ranking, One win against a wrestler receiving automatic qualification via an earned position (pre-allocated), Qualifying event placement one below automatic qualification.
Nelson is 4-1 right now, so has a .800 Win%, he won't have enough matches to get RPI but he could be ranked in the final coaches poll that comes out after all the conference tourneys. If he doesn't get ranked, he would either need to beat someone who does AQ or finish 1 spot below the pre-allocations for the Big 10. Right now, the Big 10 has 7 pre-qual spots so if he finished 8th he would meet the criteria. He then would get thrown in with anyone else at the weight who met 2 of these and didn't qualify through their conference tourney. If there are more upsets at 174 in other conference tourney's he could get bumped based on someone with a better resume. If he can't finish top 7 at the Big 10 tourney at 174, he's probably not going to score many points at nationals anyway. Outside of Haines, Kharchla and Pinto, you have guys like Whiting, Turley and Bauman. Brands should easily finish top 4 or 5.
Edit: Braunagel would also fit in that group. They are all in the 20-25 RPI rankings.
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This is good. #4 is important at Nattys. Quality underdogs can steal wins with the talent there and if the match is up in the air yet in the final minute. I've always leaned toward PK myself. Too bad only one can go but whoever it is will get my backing.
Except if he goes we lose Kennedy's allocation. Otherwise great it was exactly what I was looking for. Thanks
Good point! 174 is probably the weakest weight in the Big 10 so I would be shocked if Nelson doesn't finish high enough for an AQ spot.
I know some sites have access to IP addresses so they band the IP address but nothing like that here unless Ross has the super duper powers to do it.
....in each of his NCAA tournaments, Kennedy has lost to a lower seeded guy.
I'm not sure who acuhawk is obviously you do and he is in room at times . If he's in there then he obviously has seen it and knows those results. I still say Nelson is the better option
It was more about if something gets tweaked would he have the leeway to mff to heal up for NCAA's. There isn't a concern about him beating the mid tier conference guys Spooner and co. don't consider all scenarios.
Good point. I'm sure Brands has also lost to lower seeds too. I think the point was if you wrestle tight and not to lose, you actually have more chance of losing. Without looking, I would guess Desanto did not lose to many underdogs. PK is more aggressive style so that's why I favor him but that's just my opinion as a fan. The ones who get paid to make the decision will do so and I will 100% be behind whoever that is at tourney time.
They have both been to two NCAA tournaments.
Nelson Brands
2021 NCAAs at 184 pounds (11 seed)
Brands WBD Dominic Ducharme (21 seed)
Brands LBD Hunter Bolen (6 seed)
Brands LMD Devin Kane (22 seed)
2023 NCAAs at 174 pounds (11 seed)
Brands WBD Alex Faison (22 seed)
Brands WBD Ethan Smith (6 seed)
Brands LBD Mekhi Lewis (3 seed)
Brands WBD Edmond Ruth (9 seed)
Brands WBD Peyton Mocco (7 seed)
Brands LBD Chris Foca (4 seed)
Brands WBD Dustin Plott (5 seed)
Patrick Kennedy
2023 NCAAs at 165 pounds (6 seed)
Kennedy WBD Will Formato (27 seed)
Kennedy LBD Cam Amine (11 seed)
Kennedy WBD Andrew Sparks (28 seed)
Kennedy LBD Julian Ramirez (4 seed)
2024 NCAAs at 174 pounds (12 seed)
Kennedy LBD Tyler Eischens (21 seed)
Kennedy WTF Phil Conigliari (5 seed)
Kennedy WBD Austin Murphy (11 seed)
Kennedy WBD Alex Cramer (19 seed)
Kennedy LBD Mekhi Lewis (1 seed)
In terms of track record, Nelson is clearly the better choice and also less likely to get upset...if he's healthy. That's for the coaches to decide, but I just don't think the narrative that Nelson is more likely to get upset matches with their actual results. The idea of Patrick Kennedy amongst Iowa fans outweighs what he actually is (ironically, he is underrated by non-Iowa fans).
Kennedy may be more likely to blow out lesser wrestlers (though again, his only bonus point in his two tournaments was a TF of a clearly injured and bogus 5 seed in Conigliari), but a healthy (or reasonably healthy)) Nelson is more likely to beat higher seeded wrestlers and place. JMO.
I would say both have one bad loss at nationals. Nelson has more quality wins, PK has more dominate ones. I truly think it’s a wash no matter which guy they go with in the post season.
I guess I disagree, but fully acknowledge I'm working with less info than our coaches about the current state of the wrestlers, and I'm not going to flip out whomever they send, and I'm going to be screaming my head off for either from my lower bowl seat. 😎😎😎
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