Up to 2.41. You guys can do what you want but my recommendation is really up to $2.35. I think your purchases will do well, and I still see this getting to $3 to $3.50. The financials are going to be good, that I am certain, the bigger issue is for this type of stock, the short position is larger than it should be. Overall yes its small, but a majority of the stock is held by the owners and probably only 2 million shares churn regularly. As of 8/13 there was 530,000 shares short. I am curious what the current short position is. If a 15 cent dividend gets declared, that short seller is going to be responsible for paying that 15 cent dividend on a $2 stock, he is effectively screwed. He is struggling to keep the stock price under control. I think fair value, even if it is Chinese stock with a 20 cent dividend and improving fundamentals- a 6.6% dividend yield is reasonable. The stock hasn't even reported yet.
Stock Pickers thread
- Thread starter bunsen82
- Start date
I recently bought into LIT - GLOBAL X LITHIUM & BATTERY TECH ETF. Same thinking, but instead of just getting the standalone stock, I got the ETF. Its biggest holding is ALB. Second biggest is Ganfeng. I figured if China's plan really is to get into Afghanistan and take advantage of what sounds like a massive lithium reserve, that should help that stock out a lot.
I have been holding NKE, 1988 @ .48, 200 shares. The stock has split 5 times and i'm still not ready to sell it.
Awesome Franklin, by my a calcs a double comma investment off of $96, impressive.
Yep. I mentioned in another post about this stock. More then likely Amazon will just purchase them at some period of time and allow them to keep running the finance program. Solid thought though.
My worst pick of the year has been FDX, down a little over 8%.
Pretty cheap right now with a PE of 14. UPS is double at 28.
Pretty cheap right now with a PE of 14. UPS is double at 28.
Fedex overall isn't as effecient or effective as UPS. Even still, don't think a doubling of the PE is warranted. Could be a decent pair trade, short UPS long Fedex. As much as I would love to short stocks, I am never allowing myself to, you would have infinite risk. But If I did I would have a short on AMC, and a short on TSLA.
I like that thinking. Maybe just purchase the 2 or 3 top producers would be my thought. I don't like having the losers in my portfolio to drag the returns down. That said, I like your thinking and it gives you diversification which I really like.
One more stock for today to keep an eye on. Five Below (FIVE) reports after market close today with the investors call shortly after this evening. They have been a great stock over the past couple of years. I own ALOT of shares and believe they have a long ways to go yet. I don't share stocks unless I feel super good about them. Let's see what the earnings report for the 2nd QTR says, but they seem super solid.
Should be interesting. Dollar type stores took a beating recently from earnings.
Look at Five Below Chart over the past few years. They are the new beast on the block in this category. I have some fortunate connections to their stores through my work. Well ran company with solid structure. Not saying you are wrong. Just a stock that I really like that I think has a great run ahead. My opinion.
Should have held those DKS 9/10 $145c options as it is up another $4.66 today and now in the money, but profit is profit.
Bunsen, i jumped on XIN based on your tip yesterday at $2.17. Good call!
I've been playing with Vaxart VXRT the past few months and have seen a nice return. Biotech company testing an oral covid pill, which might sound a little gimicky, but I'm riding it out. Curious if you have looked at them at all.
I've been playing with Vaxart VXRT the past few months and have seen a nice return. Biotech company testing an oral covid pill, which might sound a little gimicky, but I'm riding it out. Curious if you have looked at them at all.
Bohawk, as Ive stated before Biopharmaceuticals is not something I am strong at, or have had success. I can run financial analysis fairly well, but I just can't guess how trials go or whether they will get approved. I'm a lot like Buffett, I deal with the stuff I understand.
I would love to hear someone who has had success in this area, and try to pick up some tips. Would be good to diversify my knowledge and portfolio.
Under
Yep, you're right...i saw that in an earlier post. My bad and thanks again for sharing your knowledge and information. It's very interesting.
Great Opportunity. Exceeded forecasted earnings per share and missed revenue by 1.5%. It will be back by End of Month and continue it's charge forward.
Those look like a pretty good batch of stocks. What’s the story on GPI, 1 minute look at financials it looks interesting,
I had anticipated a little push back down by the short seller today, needless to say I wasn't surprised in XIN. Regardless the shortseller is not the reason I am in this stock.
XIN is a real estate developer. When Pepper mentioned they were slowing sales, that is not quite accurate they have been ramping up sales, however Covid hit. They have projects in New York and China primarily.
If we are going to go off their financials - for the year of 2020 4th qtr, with improving fundamentals in china, I anticipate the revenue to be 800 mil to 1 billion dollars - remember they report in 1,000's if you are looking at the financials.
I had initially estimated 2021 to have Revenues of 4.5-4.7 billion. With updated information I am now up to 4.8 to 5.1. When we talk about zoom they had a pull forward of growth from several year, into last year. For XIN it is being a Back Push, or immensely helping out the financials for 2021. This revenue is Double what they did in 2019. This is massive, they are going to have a ton of cash to decrease debt pay dividends, possibly buy back stock.
We just have to wait on the report.
I am doing additional purchases in the 2.25 to 2.3 area. Needless to say this stock has a very low valuation. Price to book being 18 cents on the dollar and with the new financials that is low.
XIN is a real estate developer. When Pepper mentioned they were slowing sales, that is not quite accurate they have been ramping up sales, however Covid hit. They have projects in New York and China primarily.
If we are going to go off their financials - for the year of 2020 4th qtr, with improving fundamentals in china, I anticipate the revenue to be 800 mil to 1 billion dollars - remember they report in 1,000's if you are looking at the financials.
I had initially estimated 2021 to have Revenues of 4.5-4.7 billion. With updated information I am now up to 4.8 to 5.1. When we talk about zoom they had a pull forward of growth from several year, into last year. For XIN it is being a Back Push, or immensely helping out the financials for 2021. This revenue is Double what they did in 2019. This is massive, they are going to have a ton of cash to decrease debt pay dividends, possibly buy back stock.
We just have to wait on the report.
I am doing additional purchases in the 2.25 to 2.3 area. Needless to say this stock has a very low valuation. Price to book being 18 cents on the dollar and with the new financials that is low.
Last edited:
I meant China is slowing property development as a whole. I haven’t the foggiest idea of XIN’s projects there (or anywhere else).
Developers like Evergrande are currently falling apart because they have debt problems too, so that’s why I referenced the very large debt balance XIN shows on its own balance sheet.
again, no opinion from me on XIN but an observation. This company has an enterprise value of $2.52 billion USD and an equity market cap of $123 million. Yet they have almost $1.1 billion of cash & equivalents… but given the debt burden of $3.38 billion, this is where we are… That is a very odd market cap to EV “ratio” and suggests to me that the bond holders are really in control of XIN anyway. It’s quite risky but could be quite rewarding too as that’s how leverage works.
Ok boys, what we buying today? I have some dry powder that needs to go to work. @bunsen82 likes XIN, but I’ve vowed myself to never buy Chinese stocks. Any meme plays?
edit: HUT is blowing up, but my Covered Call is holding me down at this point. Going to let fate play out with those 25 contract Sep15 7.5$ CC.
edit: HUT is blowing up, but my Covered Call is holding me down at this point. Going to let fate play out with those 25 contract Sep15 7.5$ CC.
BTW, best new thread on HROT. Thanks for kicking it off
Silver and gold should do well, I want to purchase some, but if there is any decent pullback, it should occur in the metals also, that is my time to buy. Here is what I think will occur in the metal category. Cryptos are going to get slaughtered, all the individuals that had begun to buy crypto as an alternative to gold and silver, because it "seems" to have more upside potential will run back into silver and gold. I would much rather trust an asset that has been around more than 2000 years, than one that has really only been in existence a decade.
Last edited:
Bought some $LEDS at $10.27. Semiconductors play. I saw the news that FORD wasn't going to hit it's F150 projection. LEDS seems to run on chip shortage news.
I guess the next step is to analyze the quality of the debt, if it's even possible. Just an observation. Personally I don't really like Chinese stocks, mostly due to problems with financial reporting, an ETF might be ok.
Last edited:
I understand the concerns. Not sure how to analyze the quality of the debt. The bigger item is how much debt due they pay off in the upcoming quarters. .
Last edited:
Bought 10k of UPST in mid July at $120. Today it is at 223. Bought another 5k today. It has a long ways to go.
Well…. It’s up 718% 1 year. You give us this hint now??? Damnit!
Yeah, my point is the best analysts are those that rate debt. If a debt is risky, the interest rate is high, and less likely to be paid. It's a useful tool for a company with high debt.
Last edited:
The local rates have recently been high, but they stated those rates would be coming down. The most recent rate in the US was a little under 8%.
Last edited:
Fitch came out in July with a B- on the bonds and negative outlook due to not reporting and possible issues refinancing debt due in October, they should be able to pay off the debt with their cash on hand.
Good idea to take a better look at them, thank you. I knew they were trading at 99 cents, but the bigger issue is getting access to more debt in the future. Thank you always good t have eyes wide open and see any potential pitfalls, but this still looks good to me.
Good idea to take a better look at them, thank you. I knew they were trading at 99 cents, but the bigger issue is getting access to more debt in the future. Thank you always good t have eyes wide open and see any potential pitfalls, but this still looks good to me.
Last edited:
Latest posts
-
Monday Six-Pack 6/17: Caitlin gets clobbered, ‘27 offers, more
- Latest: WaterlooChazz
-
-
-
-
