Rudy’s lost everything but the shirt off his back and is living in a 1986 model van down by an undisclosed river. 😏
The race is breaking
- Thread starter GOHOX69
- Start date
True. Nothing to do with the Georgia voting law though, that was just typical D hyperbole.
Congrats to this young lady for pursuing the issue.
And I’m glad she didn’t accuse any party or candidate or jump to any conclusions.
She was offered a provisional ballot so I do hope she went ahead and voted.
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As I've previously noted to Huey, heavy female early voting is indeed likely to be favorable at some undefined level for Harris, but it's not at all clear whether that's incremental to the past or basically just the same numbers as you've seen in the past. Silver actually has a pretty decent piece this morning that also includes some decent historical information on how early voting is not necessarily a very good predictor of final results (mostly because it's almost, by definition, not a random sample of final electorate).
Dude, you can justify it how you want. The women are voting for Harris. Trump is done.
Good for the girls. I will say this much. I lived in Dubai and Lebanese and Jordanian women are some of the prettiest.
- Sep 13, 2002
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Elder abuse. Why isn't his family doing something?
Cuz they don't give a shit. Mom is buried in a hole on the golf course with over run weeds.
I'm not justifying anything. Nor am i disputing that the women are voting for harris (in fact I'm agreeing they are and i've previously noted that they're probably doing so in a more meaningful way than they did in a pre-dobbs era).
But in an era of microtargeting, note that it's not exactly surprising that when one set of internet meme pumps the value on the D side, there will be another set of internet meme posts from the other side using it to encourage their microtarget (young men) to vote.
Either way, the only sample that matters is the final one. As I've said time and time again, I think that Harris wins that one, but I'm pretty sure it ain't gonna be running away.
They are also allowing ads Elon Musk organizations to run ads pretending to be Harris supporting organizations.
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www.npr.org
Say and think what you will about Citizens United, but there is nothing in the 1A that protects false and misleading speech (including speech that is misleading as to the source or sponsorship of a communication). If I were king (or even something more mundane like a US Representative) and wanted to introduce a political campaign regulation legislation, its elements would include prohibitions and substantial civil fines for:
1. Use of public databases for political spam
2. Political solicitation content that uses a candidate's name, without the candidate actually being responsible for and the source of the communication
3. Flat out likes, like these.
- Sep 13, 2002
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Women are out voting men by 12 points in Georgia alone. If you think this is good for Trump then I'm not sure what to tell you.
60 million have voted already. Trump would need one hell of a turnaround to mitigate that many women voters. Like he would need to totally flip the remaining votes so that men are out voting women by close to 10 points from here on out. This doesn't look realistic.
- Sep 13, 2002
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Just another case of Bonespur's total inability to recognize and hire talent. Just like dumpster fire #1 admin.
I'm seeing this all "the race is tied, necy n neck, etc" and it is but I fully see it splitting once the counts go up with Kamala ascending and Trump stagnant at his 47%. I don't see as much enthusiasm for Trump as I do Kamala. Reminds me of 2012. Romney team thought they were gunna win, broke Obama's way quickly.
The other thing about trying to read the tea leaves with this is that absentee voting is a tiny fraction of what it was in 2020. So not only are you trying to figure out whether any group is just moving election day voters to early voting, you have to figure out what all those absentee ballot voters are doing and how they are being counted. Many of the breathless comparisons don't even make clear if by "early voting" they are counting just in-person, or also absentee.
I also find some things contradictory...some of the exit polls of people who have voted, and the gender trends, suggest that Harris has a strong lead among early voters. But in many places, Democrats and Republicans are casting early votes nearly equally.
The only way both things are true is that Harris is getting a substantial number, like 15-20% of Republican votes, and a huge majority of independent. If that's true, it's blowout city for Harris.
But I'm just not seeing primary polling and data, or even vibes, that a significant number of Republicans are breaking for Harris. If they are, but staying quiet about it, then Harris will coast.
This...this is the trend that I'm just having a hard time believing. Secondary data suggests large numbers of Rs voting for Kamala, but primary polling can't find them? Weird. Maybe the R defectors are just staying quiet about it, or deciding in the booth?
Meh, you learn from your mistakes. This will be so much different than the 1st admin.
Correct, though I'm perfectly open to the idea that the net number of crossover Rs' may be material. Indeed, one would probably crazy not to think that.
Yea, it would be worse. Go sit in the corner and let the adults handle things
