You have chunks of republicans going for Kamala, but the biggest thing not discussed there are independents are voting for Harris at a very high clip.
The race is breaking
- Thread starter GOHOX69
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i don't know if it's shocking, but as Silver tries to note, a poll is actually, or at least putatively, a random sample of voters, whereas early voting data isn't. So I don't doubt that early voting numbers will favor harris, but the reality is no one really knows how much of an advantage that will be heading into election day.
Oh in a race this close, they are definitely material. They could be the margin. I'm just surprised they're being implied to be so large.
Combine it with the fact that I believe it’s 21 states that do not begin opening/tallying mailed and absentee ballots until day of election and sometimes not even until the polls close. Could be some surprises.
Worse for the moronic liberal narrative people like you believe in, sure. Your "adults" had their chance and created the mess. Now the responsible adults have to come in and clean up the mess.
Still a category you don't belong to.
Yet, it would be so much more in a Trump presidency, with no need to dip into our reserves in an effort to artificially lower gas prices.
Hmmm.
Adolescent, misogynistic bullying. Low grade intellect. ‘Look at MEEEE!’ personality.
Does Torbee remind you of anyone (cough, cough…Donald Trump…cough)?
- Sep 13, 2002
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On a very fundamental level, though, in a race allegedly a 50/50 coin toss - one candidate building a fairly significant lead early makes it more likely they will win - as it should then be assumed the rest of the voting will also be close to 50/50.
If you were betting a baseball game and could get the same odds but after 3 innings and the home team had built a 4-2 lead, which one would you bet on?
Of course - we saw the Yankees blow a 5-0 lead just last night, so there's also that.
Harris has garnered an incredible amount of Republican endorsements. It's not hard to think that she will pull a good number of Republican voters, too.
He's also winning big with "men who think the bartender is hitting on them". That one is like 90-10 for Trump.
LOL - Trump may very well win the popular vote in addition to crushing the electoral vote!
You are wrong. As of early this year, Biden had approved 50% more oil and gas drilling permits on federal lands than Trump did during his presidency.
You probably don't realize that it's democrats who have to fix the economy after every Republican administration. Maybe do some research.
It's a point of fact that the US economy does much better under Democrat administrations than Republican ones.
Does that need to be posted (again)?
- Sep 13, 2002
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The guy the GOP is running for president had his own Vice President and the Vice President of the last GOP president say they won't vote for him.
Just stop and think about that for a minute.
Would have been like if Joe Biden and Al Gore urged the country to avoid danger by voting for Mitt Romney in 2012.
If accurate, it's wonderful to see the Dems have gone all in on fossil fuels....nobody will be upset when Drill Baby Drill is unleashed full scale....
But our inhouse economist JoesPlace will probably refute that....he'll have to tell us where he got his phD again....he might quote some bullshit article he found somewhere....
- Sep 13, 2002
- 98,392
- 205,713
- 113
- Sep 13, 2002
- 98,392
- 205,713
- 113
Breaking out all the handles today bro?
Pace yourself, we got another 5 days to go!
Oddly enough, Trump’s throat goat doesn’t really give the best oration.
“current” doing some heavy lifting in that first sentence.
Her problem is she’s advanced all those positions, in her own words, but now wants people to believe that was just a phase, and she’s seen the light.
I imagine some find that convincing. Some won’t.
not bad but could’ve been so much more effective if portrayed in a realistic manner. no way
irl she’s wearing a bra in that situation.
On a very fundamental level, though, in a race allegedly a 50/50 coin toss - one candidate building a fairly significant lead early makes it more likely they will win - as it should then be assumed the rest of the voting will also be close to 50/50.
If you were betting a baseball game and could get the same odds but after 3 innings and the home team had built a 4-2 lead, which one would you bet on?
Of course - we saw the Yankees blow a 5-0 lead just last night, so there's also that.
Sort of...but that's built in. The democrats will always have the lead in early/absentee voting (until proven otherwise) so that's sort of like just saying you would always vote on the Democrats.
You could also say it's like a horse race...do you feel strongly about betting on the horse leading after the first half way around the track? It depends on the lead...if it's got a massive lead, maybe, if it's got a head on the closest...that probably means nothing.
Right now, we really have no idea what the lead looks like. Very conflicting data between exit polls, which show a big Harris lead, and the balance of voters by party, which shows the Republicans as heavy in early voting as have ever been. We will see where reality is.
That's what makes me think that there's the possibility of a very convincing win either way. Either the massive improvement in Republican early voting is indicative of an enthusiasm and ground game that will end up in a near sweep of battlegrounds for Republicans, or the exit polling suggests so many R defectors to Harris that she wins going away.
I'm actually leaning toward it being too close to call, but NOT a close outcome. I'm fascinated.
