The stock market is overvalued
- Thread starter Gonolz
- Start date
What would their PE's be without low-interest debt? That's the question. For those companies with debt issues about to mature, we'll find out soon enough. Pay attention to that interest-expense line item.
Should be interesting to see.
If all that money on the sidelines sat out at 4100, why would you think it's going to come in now at near all time highs?
I'm of the belief way too many people think rate cuts are going to somehow signal the next face ripping bull market. If they cut rates, it's usually because something is breaking. With the lagging effect of rate hikes, that's generally why when they cut, things go to shit.
I'm of the belief way too many people think rate cuts are going to somehow signal the next face ripping bull market. If they cut rates, it's usually because something is breaking. With the lagging effect of rate hikes, that's generally why when they cut, things go to shit.
But you said you were comfortable getting 5% risk free. If that comes down to 3%, will people who agree with that still feel the same way? Or move that money into equities?
Majority of so called experts predictions are shooting at 5100 for 2024.
8% jump seems relatively conservative, imo.
Especially since the S&P earnings estimates for 2024 are +11%. but like joel's Hokas, we shall see.
Doesn't this depend on the ability for companies to keep growing? Most companies have 10 years of growth already priced in. Go look up NVDA's P/E. Where is Apple's growth going to come from? Most companies are pulling back their guidance.
I don't have all the answers. I can recognize the possibility that I'm looking at this the wrong way because it seems the opinion, "JPow printed way too much money and it has nowhere to go other than equities, therefore, valuations don't matter and stonks only go up" could be completely valid.
If rates are cut to 3% and the S&P is trading at 5100 by the end of the year, then it is only being propped up because inflation has reaccelerated and the Fed has all but admitted defeat.
If the market and economy stay resilient through the year, why would JPow cut rates to 3%?
8.5 hours of trading has not made me change my mind.
Inflation going back up. Rate cuts are coming any day now.
The Fed can't cut rates and a lot of companies are about to roll their debt with these rates. It could get ugly.
The Fed can't cut rates and a lot of companies are about to roll their debt with these rates. It could get ugly.
S&P up 43% since October...a pull back would not be shocking.
Oh look, it's the guy that calls out everyone for taking victory laps. Our legs were getting tired anyway.
Half the Dow's gains this year wiped out in 1 day.
Here's a theory ...Trump odds improving and market is not happy?
I mean...if you take credit when it goes up, you take blame if it goes down.
I mean...if you take credit when it goes up, you take blame if it goes down.
The CPI missed expectations but not by much, I believe most of the pullback today is in response to the disappointing 4th quarter sales by some of the major retailers. That in itself is actually good news for the long haul and may actually indicate the Feds rate increases are finally settling in with US consumers. There’s still palpable fear on Wall Street that the interest rate hikes may continue and that is whipsawing the market today.
Incredible. Earnings today beat already outrageous expectations.
Twenty percent of my net worth is in Nvidia. Jensen Huang is one of the greatest innovators of all time. He should be getting more praise for making the world a better place. People seem to think that Bernie Sanders and The Squad are making the world a better place but in reality they’re just pure evil. Huang is giving people a sense of purpose and prosperity in life. He is a wonderful and inspiring person.
You had me until Bernie and The Squad. Really weird twist. Be happy with the gains and less on crazy fringe politics and your life will be exponentially better.
NVDA is still up for the day. CAVA was down around 6% but buyers have stepped in and now it’s only down around 2%
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I made this post 6/30 of 2023. S and P 500 was at 4450.
Today, we are over 5200. Missed it by less than 3 months.
I remain the man.
It could very well be fleeting but damn, my 401k is up 9.7% on the year, not accounting for contributions.
