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This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

This makes me nervous. Ukraine's most valuable asset is their troops, while Russia can keep throwing bodies after bodies into the grinder. I'd let them have the city and take on an offensive somewhere else. Hope they pull it out though.
The public nature of it all make me think it is to distract and keep Russia spread thin for where they plan to go all in. Seems ludicrous for them suddenly to be so open on their plans. Guess we will see.
 
It really seems Ukraine strategy has been to rope a dope and defend and let the Russian Army and Wagner keep making mistakes and grind the remainder of their respective armies to paste. You can really start to “hear it” in their military bloggers and telegraph and even some of the propagandists.

If true and they are as depleted and worn down as I suspect, the counter offensive to the south may be very very dramatic. Like France being liberated in WWII dramatic as front collapses under surrender and retreat.

The only hope Russia had was regrouping all winter and then playing defense themselves in spring. Such a colossal fail from start to finish, across all levels. This is what happens when you follow a madman who has so many people terrified to tell him he is wrong.
 
Would this explain the increase in enemy artillery destroyed?

Hello Kerch Bridge...

"Ukraine's JDAM-ERs could potentially be up to 2,000-pound class types, giving much more destructive capability and drastically expands what target sets it can reliably destroy."

"Whatever the case, Ukrainian forces now have the means to put entire new sets of targets — including bridges, large structures, dispersed air defense emplacements, and hardened fortifications — at risk with JDAM-ERs and may be doing just that already."
 
The Wagner stories always mention there are two tiers. The experienced mercenaries with military experience who have been with Wagner for years, and the meat sacks the pros run out in front of them. Bakhmut may have bled off a lot of the pros, too.
 
I agree and wonder what secret things Poland has also done to help. And maybe what promises were made if Ukraine had started to falter.
I don't think Poland has been subtle at all since this started, and I don't see them bothering with secrets. They were the first to call for sending MiGs to Ukraine. They have been open about sending arms, and pushing for bigger weapons. They've opened up bases for NATO forces, and Poland is one giant freeway/rail line leading to Ukraine from the West. Romania is doing the same on the South. They both know they are next in line for Putin.
 
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The Wagner stories always mention there are two tiers. The experienced mercenaries with military experience who have been with Wagner for years, and the meat sacks the pros run out in front of them. Bakhmut may have bled off a lot of the pros, too.
Someone mentioned it a few pages ago (could have been you), but Bakhmut could have been essentially a trap for RuSSia/Wagner to deplete their operational capacity, while more and better weapons arrive from the West for use in the Spring. Fingers crossed!
 
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I don't think Poland has been subtle at all since this started, and I don't see them bothering with secrets. They were the first to call for sending MiGs to Ukraine. They have been open about sending arms, and pushing for bigger weapons. They've opened up bases for NATO forces, and Poland is one giant freeway/rail line leading to Ukraine front the West. Romania is doing the same on the South. They both know they are next in line for Putin.
Makes me wonder that if at this point with Russia's army being degraded and hollowed out, if shit went sideways and Russia made a desperate move on Kiev with Belarus, whether Poland would intervene to the extent necessary...
 
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Big numbers across the board, and a bad day to be an invading artillery man. I don’t know how they keep taking these haymakers.


When they're conscripted, it's like college orientation for our kids. Their version of "look to your left, look to your right, one of you won't make it a year, one of you won't graduate" is "look to your left, look to your right. One of you will be a war criminal and two of you will be dead."
 
Someone help me. If they're unguided, what would it do to shoot them up in the air and fly away? Trying to scare someone far away?
Haha I posted the almost exact same thought.*

*edited to note that it is typical and they are highly inaccurate.


 
 
Makes me wonder that if at this point with Russia's army being degraded and hollowed out, if shit went sideways and Russia made a desperate move on Kiev with Belarus, whether Poland would intervene to the extent necessary...
This is where my secret agreement theory comes in - I think Poland would have rushed forces into Ukraine if it looked like their army was going to collapse. Just my idea.
 
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Here is a 2000 pounder in action. the second two links are NSFW but if you can, have the sound turned up for the boom




 
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