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This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...



"Mikhail B. Rogachev joined Russian Foundation for Technological Development in 2011 as Director. Prior to that Dr. Rogachev held the position of Executive Director in ONEXIM Group and the position of Deputy Director General of MMC Norilsk Nickel – Head of the industrial complex.
During the period 1996-2007 he was in charge of several projects in
YUKOS Oil Company holding positions such as Director General of YUKOS Research and Development Center."
 
Beijing:
"Chinese President Xi Jinping called this week for troops to strengthen their preparedness for war, state media reported today, just days after Beijing staged large-scale military drills around Taiwan.

Xi made his comments while visiting a brigade of the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force on Thursday, according to state-run broadcaster CCTV.

Xi said the military should "comprehensively strengthen training and preparation for war, (and) ensure troops have solid combat capabilities", state media CCTV reported.

Soldiers must "enhance their strategic deterrent and combat capability," Xi said.

China, which claims Taiwan as part of its territory, has stepped up its shows of force around the self-ruled island in recent years."

 
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Beijing:
"Chinese President Xi Jinping called this week for troops to strengthen their preparedness for war, state media reported today, just days after Beijing staged large-scale military drills around Taiwan.

Xi made his comments while visiting a brigade of the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force on Thursday, according to state-run broadcaster CCTV.

Xi said the military should "comprehensively strengthen training and preparation for war, (and) ensure troops have solid combat capabilities", state media CCTV reported.

Soldiers must "enhance their strategic deterrent and combat capability," Xi said.

China, which claims Taiwan as part of its territory, has stepped up its shows of force around the self-ruled island in recent years."

If you are Xi, do you wait until the US chip-making capability fully cranks up before taking Taiwan?

On the one hand, if we are self-sufficient in chips, maybe we won't fight too hard to protect Taiwan.

On the other hand, if Xi waits until we are self-sufficient, control of Taiwan's chip prowess gives China less leverage.
 
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If you are Xi, do you wait until the US chip-making capability fully cranks up before taking Taiwan?

On the one hand, if we are self-sufficient in chips, maybe we won't fight too hard to protect Taiwan.

On the other hand, if Xi waits until we are self-sufficient, control of Taiwan's chip prowess gives China less leverage.
It's still a loooooooong swim, and the battlefield power of denial has outpaced everything but ISR (which just enhances deniability) the last few years.

An opposed amphib landing is the hardest thing to do, and requires setting conditions I'm not sure the Chinese can manage.

Maybe they'll gamble and go for it, but it would give Sun Tzu the sads.

Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.
 
It's still a loooooooong swim, and the battlefield power of denial has outpaced everything but ISR (which just enhances deniability) the last few years.

An opposed amphib landing is the hardest thing to do, and requires setting conditions I'm not sure the Chinese can manage.

Maybe they'll gamble and go for it, but it would give Sun Tzu the sads.

Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.
And a reminder to people that the last two Ministers of Defense have been replaced so it appears his military is not on the same page as Xi.
"Nov 24, 2022 — First Naval Officer Appointed as Chinese Defense Minister; Predecessor Still Missing. For the first time, China has appointed a naval officer as the Minister ..."
 
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  • Looks like the USA is in at least at #10 or lower; pretty sad for the country that was supposedly the "Shining Beacon Of Democracy in WWII
  • Estonia
    Has provided the most aid to Ukraine as a percentage of GDP, at 3.55%.
  • Denmark
    Has provided 1.83% of its GDP in bilateral aid to Ukraine.
  • Norway
    Has provided 1.7% of its GDP in aid to Ukraine.
  • Lithuania
    Has provided 1.4% of its GDP in aid to Ukraine.
  • Latvia
    Has provided 1.1% of its GDP in aid to Ukraine.
  • Finland
    Has provided 0.5% of its GDP in aid to Ukraine.
  • Poland
    Has provided 0.7% of its GDP in aid to Ukraine.
  • Netherlands
    Has provided 0.4% of its GDP in aid to Ukraine.
  • Czech Republic
    Has provided 0.6% of its GDP in aid to Ukraine
 
  • Looks like the USA is in at least at #10 or lower; pretty sad for the country that was supposedly the "Shining Beacon Of Democracy in WWII
  • Estonia
    Has provided the most aid to Ukraine as a percentage of GDP, at 3.55%.
  • Denmark
    Has provided 1.83% of its GDP in bilateral aid to Ukraine.
  • Norway
    Has provided 1.7% of its GDP in aid to Ukraine.
  • Lithuania
    Has provided 1.4% of its GDP in aid to Ukraine.
  • Latvia
    Has provided 1.1% of its GDP in aid to Ukraine.
  • Finland
    Has provided 0.5% of its GDP in aid to Ukraine.
  • Poland
    Has provided 0.7% of its GDP in aid to Ukraine.
  • Netherlands
    Has provided 0.4% of its GDP in aid to Ukraine.
  • Czech Republic
    Has provided 0.6% of its GDP in aid to Ukraine
Six of those border Russia or Ukraine, The rest are close. Self interest.

I would bet that if you run the numbers, most of them got their help subsidized by us. For example, they sent US weapons to Ukraine, and then got subsidized weapons - often better weapons, so it was an upgrade for them - from us.

Don't get me wrong. Very smart of them to use the excuse of Ukraine to get the US to give them inexpensive or free weapons upgrades. But let's also count that as part of our contribution.

Plus we are subsidizing the construction of LNG terminals in Europe, in order to allow European nations to wean off Russian gas. Profits to Exxon and such, probably banked offshore, so it's on us taxpayers. Count that, too.
 
Nice thought.

"American Congressman Jerry Connolly, who is also President of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, has stated that the whole of Ukraine, including its eastern regions, the south and Crimea, must be integrated into NATO"

 
Nice thought.

"American Congressman Jerry Connolly, who is also President of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, has stated that the whole of Ukraine, including its eastern regions, the south and Crimea, must be integrated into NATO"

Is that the starting position for negotiations? Or is it non-negotiable?

If it's non-negotiable, 2 things need to happen: Ukraine needs to start winning and retake its territory; and we need to make sure this thing doesn't go nuclear.

So the question is, how can you equip Ukraine to win without pushing Putin to use nukes?

Putin wants to take over a functioning Ukraine. If he becomes convinced he can't, will he leave a functioning Ukraine? Or will he turn it into a 700-mile wide buffer zone of devastation?
 
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I wonder how Ukraine feels seeing S.Korea waste munitions they desperately want?
So far South Korea has not sent weapons anyway though that may change with North Koreans being sent to the war.
And of course, all countries use up munitions for training.

Timely comments-
"While the presidential office refrained from publicly discussing specific follow-up actions, it indicated that "all available means" could involve considering the provision of arms to Ukraine, as well as imposing economic sanctions on Russia and North Korea.

So far, South Korea has maintained its stance of providing Ukraine with non-lethal humanitarian aid."



https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2024/10/103_384603.html
 
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Even Ukraine’s fiercest soldiers want the war to stop

Any Western politician suffering from Ukraine fatigue could learn a lot from Lieutenant Yulia Mykytenko.

“I know that I am tired. I’m really tired. I know that my people are also tired. A lot of them I took from assault units, so they are, like, extremely tired,” the 29-year-old philology graduate says.

“And we are also sort of ready for negotiations, but we are just asking that the West insists on our interests.”

Lt Mykytenko is composed, gently spoken and quietly humorous. But she’s clearly mentally elsewhere. As we speak in London, where a new book is due out this week describing her decade-long war, she is constantly checking her phone. Giving orders, doing admin, simply staying in touch with her men.

The commander of a 25-man strong drone reconnaissance platoon in Ukraine’s 54th mechanised brigade, she has spent the past two-and-a-half years on the Donbas front.

Her days are spent directing reconnaissance, thwarting enemy assaults and trying to win a deadly technological arms race with Russian drone commanders on the other side of no-man’s land.

This is her first break in nearly a year. And her rare stint of leave coincides with a new drive to end the war.

Sir Keir Starmer met US president Joe Biden, German chancellor Olaf Scholz and French president Emmanuel Macron to discuss the West’s response to the war in a meeting in Germany on Friday.

Their summit comes after Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, lobbied them to support a five-point “victory plan” that he argues could bring peace next year.

The first three points – Nato membership; strengthening the Ukrainian military and continuing its operations inside Russia; and deployment of a non-nuclear deterrence package – are basically about persuading Russia to stop the invasion and deterring it from doing it again.

Point four is about rebuilding the Ukrainian economy, and includes a sales pitch around access to Ukraine’s natural resources. Point five appeals to Nato, and particularly American, self-interest: Ukraine’s large, battle-hardened army would contribute to European security and possibly take over some of America’s current European security commitments within Nato.

There are three secret annexes that have not been made public. But from what we know, the plan is obviously meant to address perceived Western, and especially American, fatigue with the war by signposting a way out of it.

But it depends on massive commitments from the West. And the West does not seem impressed.

President Biden has already vetoed a request for long-range strike capabilities that is central to Mr Zelensky’s defence concept. There has been no serious progress on Nato membership, despite support from Britain and Poland.

Presidential candidate Kamala Harris has made no sign that she will deviate from Joe Biden’s policy of providing enough kit to keep Ukraine in the fight, but not enough to antagonise Russia into “escalating” the conflict.

Republican rival Donald Trump has made no secret of his wish to end the war quickly, and most suspect that means quickly cutting a deal with Russian president Vladimir Putin that suspends US aid to the Ukrainians.

Mr Zelensky met all three of them on a recent trip to the United States, and none have embraced his plan wholeheartedly.

So where does that leave the war – and the men and women fighting it?

General Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s ambassador to Britain and a former commander-in-chief of its armed forces, this week hinted that Ukraine could accept a peace deal that saw it give up some of its land to Russia.

Asked in London on Thursday if he could imagine a victory without getting all the lost territory back, he said: “I didn’t mention territories. I mentioned safety, security, and the feeling of being in one’s own home.

“For me personally, as Valery Zaluzhny, if I lived in my house and was aware my neighbour took a part of my garden, I’d say we need to resolve this. If not now, then your sons would have to resolve the issue.”

That is a subtle, but profound shift in official rhetoric which previously insisted on no peace until all of Ukraine was reclaimed.


Asked if her expectations have changed, Lt Mykytenko remarks that early chances to win and end the war were squandered.

“I knew that the war wouldn’t end in a few weeks, and we wouldn’t be in Crimea in a few months, as our government used to say. I completely understood that. But I was hoping for much more help from the Western world,” she said.

“I was hoping to get F16s at the end of 2022. I was hoping to get Patriots and Abrams at the end of 2022, when we really needed them, when we had a really motivated army, when we had a lot of warriors who were ready to fight.”

If only, she muses, the West had sent enough help on time, or if the massive 2023 offensive had been put into Kursk, instead of the heavily fortified Russian lines in occupied Zaporizhzhya.

“Now we are being given a small amount of those weapons, and we are expected to use them the same as in 2022 but unfortunately, we won’t, because a lot of warriors are dead, missing and injured.”

“Our motivation, let’s be honest, is much lower than it was even one year ago. So yeah, we had a great chance to end it up to 2023, if we had got everything that we asked for, and now it’s almost impossible. We won’t recover the strengths which we had in 2022 for at least 10 years.”

In short, the victory which once seemed so close has slipped below the horizon.

And Ukraine has already been at war for a decade.
 
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