This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

“We must be very careful not to assign to this deliverance the attributes of a victory. Wars are not won by evacuations.”

While true...evacuations/withdrawals buy you time.

If Dunkirk doesn't happen Britain is basically knocked out the war in 1940. Wouldn't have survived an almost complete loss of the regular army....

Ukraine is buying time...hopefully they have it. Pessimistic on that front...

 

[h-hawk]

Even if exaggerated, it looks like they took out a bunch of the enemy.

 

[h-hawk]

“We must be very careful not to assign to this deliverance the attributes of a victory. Wars are not won by evacuations.”

It took the US two years to return to the Philippines which is still the biggest defeat in US history.
Different situations maybe but one thing that is similar is that both the US and Ukraine had to build up their armed forces first.

 

[TC Nole OX]

 

[kc78]

Ukraine can't allow Russia to create a stall in fighting. They have to keep pushing, at the very least repeatedly hitting their supplies with HIMARS so they can't reconstitute. Right now they are starting to gain the advantage in artillery. They have to keep pushing while Russia is wanting a pause. Russia just threw everything it had at taking that small area. They now need time to build leverage back. Ukraine can't let them do that.

 

[seminole97]

Anyone know of a good map overlaying Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts with the front lines?
I’m thinking there is still a significant patch of dirt left to take before Russia can claim they’ve have ‘liberated’ Donetsk.

Strategically, Ukraine needs to keep pressure on and take Kherson and more importantly the canal that is just upriver that Russia needs to bring fresh water to Crimea.

Russians already had to give up the bargaining chip of Snake island with nothing to show for it. Ukraine needs to retake Kherson so it’s not even on the table for discussion.

 

[h-hawk]

A month old but may give an idea of area Russia has taken and still after. (Best I can do

From today-

 

[h-hawk]

"n the early days of the war in Ukraine, a rapid Russian advance plunged Kherson province into darkness. What little is known about life there comes from refugees who dare to escape, reaching relative safety in front-line towns like Zelenodolsk. They come any way they can: by foot, bike, boat, in wheelchairs. One woman was dragged by her son on a carpet. At one point, nearly 1,000 a day were arriving. Destroyed bridges and increased risks mean the daily count has dwindled to single digits. But a vast yard of abandoned bicycles, wheelchairs and baskets on the edge of Zelenodolsk stands as a memorial to the lives left behind—temporarily, so those who have fled hope.

The most recent arrivals talk of intense fighting as Ukraine readies itself to counter-attack from the west, near Mykolaiv, and the north, from towns like Zelenodolsk. Vlad Milin, 31, and Olha Shelemba, 26, said that shelling had become so relentless in their village, Dovhove, they decided to risk everything and travel with their five young children in a boat, then navigate country fields and mined roads to safety. There was little point in watching the battle unfold further, they said. “Neither side is going to give up.”

https://www.economist.com/europe/20...-counter-offensive-to-retake-kherson-province

 

[h-hawk]

 

[h-hawk]

This must be the Russian Arctic Force they are moving to Ukraine.

"After a period of being a boggart threatening Finland #Finland & Sweden #Sweden because these two countries were about to join #NATO , Russia #Russia began to withdraw QS equipment from the Finnish border . Maybe this vk will be taken to #Ukraine ."

 

[h-hawk]

View embedded media

This must be the Russian Arctic Force they are moving to Ukraine.

"After a period of being a boggart threatening Finland #Finland & Sweden #Sweden because these two countries were about to join #NATO , Russia #Russia began to withdraw QS equipment from the Finnish border . Maybe this vk will be taken to #Ukraine ."

View embedded media

Over 100 armored vehicles and trucks have vanished from a Russian base in Alakurtti near Finland, based on commercial satellite imagery inspected by
@yleuutiset
. It is very likely that a BTG from #Alakurtti has been transferred to Ukraine: https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-12513528… #osint

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Ukraine can't allow Russia to create a stall in fighting. They have to keep pushing, at the very least repeatedly hitting their supplies with HIMARS so they can't reconstitute. Right now they are starting to gain the advantage in artillery. They have to keep pushing while Russia is wanting a pause. Russia just threw everything it had at taking that small area. They now need time to build leverage back. Ukraine can't let them do that.

Unfortunately I think Ukraine needs a pause as well. The Ukrainians will come out better in a "pause" phase. Getting better weapons and equipment...

 

[kc78]

Unfortunately I think Ukraine needs a pause as well. The Ukrainians will come out better in a "pause" phase. Getting better weapons and equipment...

That may be true. We do see that Russia doesn't have precision weaponry anymore so they're just indiscriminately firing. Ukraine has the advantage on artillery. If there's a bunch making its way forward right now that isn't yet available then maybe so.

 

[notlongago]

Ukraine has the advantage on artillery.

How did you come to this conclusion?

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

That may be true. We do see that Russia doesn't have precision weaponry anymore so they're just indiscriminately firing. Ukraine has the advantage on artillery. If there's a bunch making its way forward right now that isn't yet available then maybe so.

Ukraine just needs time and I'm not sure they'll get it. They can definitely win this but it's going to be a brutal slog.

Ironically....technology (specifically lethal fire and forget man portable anti tank/anti aircraft weapons) have made it damned near impossible for armor to blast through lines for rapid advances....at least in this war. Turned it into a WW1 style grind.

Unfortunately the russians have their own...

Russia has its own effective anti-tank missiles that its trying to bring to bear on the battlefield in Ukraine

Standoff anti-tank missiles have had a prominent role in Russia's war on Ukraine, but Ukraine appears to be using them more effectively than Russia.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[TC Nole OX]

 

[TC Nole OX]

 

[h-hawk]

IMO, now would be the time to strike Russia-they have suffered huge losses in men and material in the Donbass. They are recruiting prisoners, Chechens and Syrians, conscripting Ukrainians and transferring in units from the far reaches of Russia. This may be the weakest they will be during the entire conflict.

Unfortunately the major western powers are supplying only the bare basics in important offensive equipment to Ukraine. This probably means that new 700,000 man army is far short of arms and equipment and not able to take advantage.

The US has something like 330 HIMARS-they have sent 12 of them, with an additional 8 from UK and Germany. The US has not sent any tanks or aircraft though the reasoning could make sense in a short war-training on them would take time. Germany and France have done even less in major equipment. Thank God for Poland which has sent over 200 tanks. It is a huge deal that Slavakia may send them 12 aircraft - think how sad that is!
If the West treated this like a real war, they would be supplying hundreds of tanks and airplanes to Ukraine, weapons that the West has in abundance. Hope this fear of Putin does not come back to haunt Ukraine then NATO.

 

[kc78]

How did you come to this conclusion?

all the news accounts keep saying that Russia has used all of their primary precision guided munitions and are left with having to simply shell indiscriminately.

So total numbers and collateral damage caused will go to Russia. But the ability to actually hit the targets you're aiming for seem to be in Ukraine's pocket.

 

[h-hawk]

The wrong people die of diseases...

 

[CarolinaHawkeye]

The wrong people die of diseases...

View embedded media

So she is on putin's payroll. Gotta love those fascists.

 

[h-hawk]

 

[hawksurprize]

So she is on putin's payroll. Gotta love those fascists.

She is such a fracking moron.

 

[h-hawk]

Posting this to illustrate the point made earlier that Ukraine has reduced how much it has to defend by its tactical retreat.

 

[notlongago]

Posting this to illustrate the point made earlier that Ukraine has reduced how much it has to defend by its tactical retreat.

I appreciate all the updates everyone is providing, but giving up land as part of a "tactical retreat" to limit the lines needing defended is a spin cycle for the hall of fame.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

I appreciate all the updates everyone is providing, but giving up land as part of a "tactical retreat" to limit the lines needing defended is a spin cycle for the hall of fame.

Well....in the larger scheme of things it's worthy of mention. Any way you look at it it's a "W" for the Russians though....

A lot depends on what happens in the next few weeks....if the Russians take Donetsk then that's not a good thing at all....

 

[kc78]

I appreciate all the updates everyone is providing, but giving up land as part of a "tactical retreat" to limit the lines needing defended is a spin cycle for the hall of fame.

The Russians won that battle, the Ukranians decided it was better to give up that land to diminish the loss of life/supply lines/etc in the short term. Sometimes you have to retreat before you can win.

 

[notlongago]

The Russians won that battle, the Ukranians decided it was better to give up that land to diminish the loss of life/supply lines/etc in the short term. Sometimes you have to retreat before you can win.

That is undeniable. Trying to spin it as some sort of tactical advantage is a hilarious take.

 

[h-hawk]

That is undeniable. Trying to spin it as some sort of tactical advantage is a hilarious take.

It could be an advantage as Ukraine now has a lot more men to defend the shortened line. Depending on Russian tactics, they may not be able to array all their forces against that shortened line in a manner that gives them an advantage (other than their killer artillery). If Ukraine trusts their positions, they may even be able to move troops elsewhere, though I doubt that.
If you look at how desperately Russia is trying to scrape up troops, it is not hard to imagine that this was a Pyrrhic victory for them-time will tell.

(A pyrrhic victory is a victory that comes at a great cost, perhaps making the ordeal to win not worth it. It relates to Pyrrhus, a king of Epirus who defeated the Romans in 279 BCE but lost many of his troops. It is likely that most of us prefer to win at something, rather than to lose.)

 

[h-hawk]

 

[hwk23]

Anyone know of a good map overlaying Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts with the front lines?
I’m thinking there is still a significant patch of dirt left to take before Russia can claim they’ve have ‘liberated’ Donetsk.

Strategically, Ukraine needs to keep pressure on and take Kherson and more importantly the canal that is just upriver that Russia needs to bring fresh water to Crimea.

Russians already had to give up the bargaining chip of Snake island with nothing to show for it. Ukraine needs to retake Kherson so it’s not even on the table for discussion.

Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests, terrorism, weapons deployment, health matters, natural disasters, and weather...

liveuamap.com

 

[seminole97]

This probably means that new 700,000 man army is far short of arms and equipment and not able to take advantage.

That 700k figure isn’t ‘the army’, but a sum of the army, border guards, the new national guard, and reservists who have been through the military in the last decade and are ‘on the books’.
I don’t think Ukraine has even half that number currently in the field. But the reservists mean they can replace losses. Russia is by all accounts struggling in this regard.

 

[h-hawk]

 

[h-hawk]

That 700k figure isn’t ‘the army’, but a sum of the army, border guards, the new national guard, and reservists who have been through the military in the last decade and are ‘on the books’.
I don’t think Ukraine has even half that number currently in the field. But the reservists mean they can replace losses. Russia is by all accounts struggling in this regard.

That 700k figure isn’t ‘the army’, but a sum of the army, border guards, the new national guard, and reservists who have been through the military in the last decade and are ‘on the books’.
I don’t think Ukraine has even half that number currently in the field. But the reservists mean they can replace losses. Russia is by all accounts struggling in this regard.

You are right of course.. It looks like Ukraine is aiming at an army of 300,000 if they have the time. This is where the 700,000 that stuck in my mind came from. (And wishful thinking.)


"President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that today Ukraine is being defended in the war by 700,000 military personnel.

Source: Zelenskyy in an interview for Ukrainian journalists

Quote from the president: "As of today it is 700,000 – here you can see the result of the work of 700,000 people who are fighting. 700,000. This is at a time of war."

Source: Zelenskyy added that this number of people and equipment is scattered throughout the country.

According to the president, a country like Ukraine needs an army of not 250,000 or 260,000 (and there were 120,000 combat troops there, Zelensky said), but a significantly larger one. Therefore, at the beginning of 2022, he signed a decree on increasing the armed forces by 100,000 for the following year.

At the same time, the president believes that even these plus 100,000 would not have been able to stop a full-scale attack by Russia."

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/21/7347610/

 

[h-hawk]

 

[torbee]

“We must be very careful not to assign to this deliverance the attributes of a victory. Wars are not won by evacuations.”

Dunkirk says "hi"

 

[TC Nole OX]

Gasprom is the big gas company where many executives have fallen out of windows in recent years

 

[lucas80]

Interesting story on NPR yesterday about the environmental impacts of the war. From impacts to wildlife, to a lack of aircraft to fight wildfires in Europe. Turns out a lot of them come from Russia, and firefighting efforts in parts of Russia are non-existent this year.

 

[h-hawk]

 

[h-hawk]