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This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

Whelp-it has been coming for a long time but the estimated dead Invaders has surpassed the US total death toll for Vietnam. In just 7 months vs 10 years. With no signs of stopping. And with a country that has 43% our population meaning it would be like us having 125k dead soldiers in 7 months, levels I don’t know if we even saw in WWII for context.

Covered this about 50 pages ago, but for actual KIAs they surpassed us a long time ago, as 9k of our Vietnam deaths were actually from accidents. And we were actually involved in Vietnam for 20 years, although the most intense involvement was 10 years. So it going even worse for Russia!
 
In my mind, it seems pretty clear….Putin threatened to defend Russian territory at all costs….Ukraine pushing Russia back….Russia annexes eastern Ukraine territories so they are now “Russia”….Putin can use a nuke to “win” the war and defend Russian “territory”. West almost certainly would respond militarily…and frankly in my opinion would be right to do so…
 
In my mind, it seems pretty clear….Putin threatened to defend Russian territory at all costs….Ukraine pushing Russia back….Russia annexes eastern Ukraine territories so they are now “Russia”….Putin can use a nuke to “win” the war and defend Russian “territory”. West almost certainly would respond militarily…and frankly in my opinion would be right to do so…
Not convinced of that. If Russia uses nukes on Ukraine.... NATO/US responding militarily isn't a given. Game changing event and escalation worries would be ramped up.

Let's hope Putin doesn't go down that path.
 
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It's wishful thinking, at some point you're going to need to acknowledge that the Russian people support him and would rather take Ukraine than face that it can't. Who stole the military equipment? Putin's opponents. Who won't fight for Russia? Spoiled entitled tech workers in the cities. Etc. Etc.

He's going to have to die of natural causes, or Russia's going to have to lose militarily and be partitioned before there is no Putin. He exists because the Russian people have delusions of grandeur. He's a symptom, not the illness.
Right there is why I wouldn't take in any Russians trying to flee now. U were with Putin every step of the way. And just wanted to eat the steak and ignore how it was made.
 
In my mind, it seems pretty clear….Putin threatened to defend Russian territory at all costs….Ukraine pushing Russia back….Russia annexes eastern Ukraine territories so they are now “Russia”….Putin can use a nuke to “win” the war and defend Russian “territory”. West almost certainly would respond militarily…and frankly in my opinion would be right to do so…
No need to worry, quite a few of the geopolitical geniuses on here told me months ago there wasn't any way Russia would use a nuke or that they likely have any functional ones anyway.

No need to worry about escalation, sleep well.
 
No need to worry, quite a few of the geopolitical geniuses on here told me months ago there wasn't any way Russia would use a nuke or that they likely have any functional ones anyway.

No need to worry about escalation, sleep well.

The daily casualty updates, genocide, terrorism, human rights abuses, and forced slaughter of even their own people point to leadership making clear, rational decisions, lol.

There's no way they'd use, or at least attempt to use, all or parts of its nuclear arsenal.....somebody near Putin would surely take him out before it came to that!
 
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Not convinced of that. If Russia uses nukes on Ukraine.... NATO/US responding militarily isn't a given. Game changing event and escalation worries would be ramped up.

Let's hope Putin doesn't go down that path.
Someone will have to respond as US has already promised a catastrophic event if Russia uses nukes.
The US and NATO loses all credibility if they let Russia get away with the unthinkable.
 
Someone will have to respond as US has already promised a catastrophic event if Russia uses nukes.
The US and NATO loses all credibility if they let Russia get away with the unthinkable.
I don't think we would nuke Russia in response but I think we would lead the NATO charge using our air power to wipe out Russian forces in Ukraine.
 
Someone will have to respond as US has already promised a catastrophic event if Russia uses nukes.
The US and NATO loses all credibility if they let Russia get away with the unthinkable.
Here's my thinking...

NATO/US have scrupulously kept away from a direct military confrontation with Russia because of the threat of escalation (aka Russia has nukes)

If Russia uses nukes v Ukraine and NATO/US respond militarily I'd say that threat of escalation (Nukes) goes up exponentially. Is Ukraine worth risking Nuclear Armageddon? That's the calculation the US/NATO (US primarily) will have to make.

I think there's a pretty good chance they respond militarily....I'm just saying it's not a given. I think the amount of sphincter tightening amongst US/NATO members when the "unthinkable" becomes "thinkable" is under estimated,
 


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Is it not a serious question as to why the Russians would bomb something they could just turn off?
 
Whelp-it has been coming for a long time but the estimated dead Invaders has surpassed the US total death toll for Vietnam. In just 7 months vs 10 years. With no signs of stopping. And with a country that has 43% our population meaning it would be like us having 125k dead soldiers in 7 months, levels I don’t know if we even saw in WWII for context.

I'm pretty sure that number is dead and wounded
 
Here's my thinking...

NATO/US have scrupulously kept away from a direct military confrontation with Russia because of the threat of escalation (aka Russia has nukes)

If Russia uses nukes v Ukraine and NATO/US respond militarily I'd say that threat of escalation (Nukes) goes up exponentially. Is Ukraine worth risking Nuclear Armageddon? That's the calculation the US/NATO (US primarily) will have to make.

I think there's a pretty good chance they respond militarily....I'm just saying it's not a given. I think the amount of sphincter tightening amongst US/NATO members when the "unthinkable" becomes "thinkable" is under estimated,

I agree with you that they might get scared if the unthinkable becomes reality.

The problem I have with that is intellectually speaking, far removed from the conversation is that sort of thinking allows Russia to just do what it likes by throwing it's nukes around.

Are we going to make the same calculation if Russia goes after Estonia? Are we willing to risk it all for them just cause a treaty says we should?

The more we give into Russia the more they learn how much they can bully us.
 


"Newspaper Mladá fronta DNES said South Korean weapons worth about $2.9 billion will be delivered to Ukraine via the Czech Republic.


The price for these supplies, which will be one of the largest during the conflict in Ukraine, will be paid by the US side, and the weapons will be delivered to one of the Czech arms companies, then they will be transferred as a gift to Ukraine.


The talk, according to the newspaper, is about anti-aircraft missile systems and munitions, in particular about Chiron, which is used to repel attacks by low-flying aircraft.


In response to a question by the newspaper about plans to supply South Korean weapons through the Czech Republic, Czech Defense Minister Jana Chernokhova said, “I do not want to comment on media speculation (about arms supply to Ukraine). Czech assistance to Ukraine continues. For security reasons, as I said earlier. We won’t define it.”

https://see.news/s-korea-to-send-weapons-worth-2-9-bln-to-ukraine/
 
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Here's my thinking...

NATO/US have scrupulously kept away from a direct military confrontation with Russia because of the threat of escalation (aka Russia has nukes)

If Russia uses nukes v Ukraine and NATO/US respond militarily I'd say that threat of escalation (Nukes) goes up exponentially. Is Ukraine worth risking Nuclear Armageddon? That's the calculation the US/NATO (US primarily) will have to make.

I think there's a pretty good chance they respond militarily....I'm just saying it's not a given. I think the amount of sphincter tightening amongst US/NATO members when the "unthinkable" becomes "thinkable" is under estimated,
You don't raise invalid points. But, what then? Say Russia nukes warsaw, and invades poland. Do we risk armageddon for Poland? Then Russia nukes Berlin and invades Germany. Do we risk armageddon for Germany?
 
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I'm pretty sure that number is dead and wounded
Per Ukraine, those are just kills. For reference, this older article with a similar graphic says the troop losses are kills:

General Staff: 23,000 Russian troops killed in Ukraine since Feb. 24.

Ukraine’s Armed Forces said on April 29 that Russia has also lost 986 tanks, 2,418 armored personnel carriers, 1,695 vehicles, 435 artillery systems, 151 multiple launch rocket systems, 73 anti-aircraft defense systems, 155 helicopters, 189 aircraft, 76 fuel tanks, and
kyivindependent.com
kyivindependent.com



A different article/source put the killed and wounded at 50K back in July:

Russia Has Lost 50,000 Soldiers In Ukraine, U.K. Military Chief Says

Russia has lost some 50,000 killed or wounded soldiers in its invasion of Ukraine and nearly 1,700 tanks have been destroyed, the head of Britain's armed forces says.
www.rferl.org
 
Here's my thinking...

NATO/US have scrupulously kept away from a direct military confrontation with Russia because of the threat of escalation (aka Russia has nukes)

If Russia uses nukes v Ukraine and NATO/US respond militarily I'd say that threat of escalation (Nukes) goes up exponentially. Is Ukraine worth risking Nuclear Armageddon? That's the calculation the US/NATO (US primarily) will have to make.

I think there's a pretty good chance they respond militarily....I'm just saying it's not a given. I think the amount of sphincter tightening amongst US/NATO members when the "unthinkable" becomes "thinkable" is under estimated,
I think there has to be a united worldwide response of complete and utter economic ostracism if they do that if the world wants to avoid escalation. Basically no Russians are allowed in any country. No imports to them. No exports purchased from them. Not until Putin is deposed and reparation's negotiated. You can't let a bully get away with using nukes. At some point there is no other choice than getting in a fight. They are the ones who escalated it.
 
The problem I have with that is intellectually speaking, far removed from the conversation is that sort of thinking allows Russia to just do what it likes by throwing it's nukes around.
That's the conundrum...if it wasn't for their nukes NATO/US would have wrecked the Russians militarily months ago. Probably already have a new Russian government. Like it not....their Nukes give them more freedom of action than a non nuclear state would have.
Are we going to make the same calculation if Russia goes after Estonia? Are we willing to risk it all for them just cause a treaty says we should?
The difference in this scenario is the line is clearly drawn...the Russians know that and they've scrupulously stayed away from any Article 5 violations cuz they don't want NATO jumping in militarily.

There are no similar treaty obligations in regards to Ukraine.

Maybe the US/NATO should state unequivocally they will respond Militarily if Russia uses nukes v Ukraine. Stating that there will be catastrophic consequences is too ambiguous in this situation. We have to be totally clear....
 
You don't raise invalid points. But, what then? Say Russian nukes warsaw, and invades poland. Do we risk armageddon for Poland? Then Russia nukes Berlin and invades Germany. Do we risk armageddon for Germany?
Article 5....Russians clearly know that is a unequivocal red line. That's why they've avoided any Article 5 violations.

There's no clear red line in regards to Ukraine.
 
I agree with you that they might get scared if the unthinkable becomes reality.

The problem I have with that is intellectually speaking, far removed from the conversation is that sort of thinking allows Russia to just do what it likes by throwing it's nukes around.

Are we going to make the same calculation if Russia goes after Estonia? Are we willing to risk it all for them just cause a treaty says we should?

The more we give into Russia the more they learn how much they can bully us.


You are posing a big "what if" and then presuming an outcome. What if Estonia? Well, it's TBD, but we can guess Russia will NOT do that since clearly their hands are full with losing in Ukraine. They aren't bullying anyone, the US and Europe have pretty artfully sidestepped Putin's line in the sand of not sending troops. It makes sense for the US to not send American troops to die in a war we don't belong in. That isn't being bullied, that is simply good policy.

What exactly are "we" giving Russia other that a 6 month war they expected to be a 3 day war just like Crimea? IMO, "we" is the world.
 
You are posing a big "what if" and then presuming an outcome. What if Estonia? Well, it's TBD, but we can guess Russia will NOT do that since clearly their hands are full with losing in Ukraine. They aren't bullying anyone, the US and Europe have pretty artfully sidestepped Putin's line in the sand of not sending troops. It makes sense for the US to not send American troops to die in a war we don't belong in. That isn't being bullied, that is simply good policy.

What exactly are "we" giving Russia other that a 6 month war they expected to be a 3 day war just like Crimea? IMO, "we" is the world.
My concern with the likes of Estonia aren't for 2022 or 2023. It is 2030, when Russia has licked its wounds and rearmed, and decides it wants to get the entire band back together from the USSR.
 
In my mind, it seems pretty clear….Putin threatened to defend Russian territory at all costs….Ukraine pushing Russia back….Russia annexes eastern Ukraine territories so they are now “Russia”….Putin can use a nuke to “win” the war and defend Russian “territory”. West almost certainly would respond militarily…and frankly in my opinion would be right to do so…
What would he nuke though?
 
You don't raise invalid points. But, what then? Say Russian nukes warsaw, and invades poland. Do we risk armageddon for Poland? Then Russia nukes Berlin and invades Germany. Do we risk armageddon for Germany?
Unfortunately, yes.

With both Russia and NATO/US having more nuclear warheads necessary to wipe out everything, you have to be willing to use them in order to maintain "mutually assured destruction."

You can't let one country continue using that threat to crush sovereign nations.

IF Russia uses a tactical nuke in Ukraine (which I believe remains a highly unlikely scenario) NATO/US simply has to respond with massive escalation (i.e. unleashing the full fury of our vastly superior air power) onto Russian military targets. To not do so would be to tacitly admit Russia can invade/nuke/destroy any piece of territory on Earth it chooses by merely threatening more nuke use. That cannot be allowed to happen.
 
Not convinced of that. If Russia uses nukes on Ukraine.... NATO/US responding militarily isn't a given. Game changing event and escalation worries would be ramped up.

Let's hope Putin doesn't go down that path.
Oh, I think NATO would respond militarily. Almost certainly would be conventional though. Could hit Black Sea fleet or selected targets inside Ukraine with cruise missiles.
 
My concern with the likes of Estonia aren't for 2022 or 2023. It is 2030, when Russia has licked its wounds and rearmed, and decides it wants to get the entire band back together from the USSR.


I agree, assuming Putin survives this current and is still around in 2030. But I'd expect that he is currently getting pushed back further and further into a corner and will begin to act irrationally long before then.
 
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