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This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

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My concern with the likes of Estonia aren't for 2022 or 2023. It is 2030, when Russia has licked its wounds and rearmed, and decides it wants to get the entire band back together from the USSR.
What is the concern?
It’s never been more obvious to the world, or Russia in particular, how badly they’d get worked starting a war with NATO.
They can’t handle a smaller country with Soviet and NATO hand me downs.
You think they’re going to take on an alliance that is many, many times their size and much better armed?
 
It will be much more dangerous for those sabotaging things now because Belarus passed draconian laws in an attempt to stop this.

"Belarusian authorities have adopted a new law which introduces the death penalty for “attempts to carry out acts of terrorism.” Marie Struthers, Amnesty International’s Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, said:

“Belarus is the only state in Europe and Central Asia which still uses the death penalty, the ultimate cruel, inhuman and degrading punishment. This law, which is against Belarus’ international obligations, expands the application of this cruel and inhumane punishment and for acts that do not qualify as intentional killing, is the latest display of Belarusian authorities’ profound disregard for human rights."

“It is particularly alarming given that the Belarusian authorities have a dangerously vague definition of ‘terrorism,’ with terrorism-related charges used to prosecute political dissent. Authorities have systematically equated peaceful protest and free expression to violent crimes, and this law is a chilling signal that they are ramping up their repression and raising the stakes to deadly new heights. "

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/n...y-law-is-the-ultimate-attack-on-human-rights/
 
Would we respond back with Nukes over Ukraine? Maybe not, but I don't think we have to. Our conventional military far outranks anything Russia has. NATO immediately responds with massive military force, destroying the entire Black Sea Fleet and several major key targets in ukraine in just moments.

We then respond that if we're able to do that without the use of Nuclear warheads, just imagine how much more devastating it will be for Russia should they ever attempt another launch. I'd promise immediate destruction of the entirety of Russia should they try again. And then immediate ostracization of Russia until Putin is deposed, reparations under way, and dismantling of the Russian Nuclear armaments begins.
 
Wow. They've been pretty Russia friendly up until now!
I don't think she has been.

Political career[edit]​

2020 Belarusian presidential election campaign[edit]​

Main article: 2020 Belarusian presidential election
After her husband's arrest on 29 May, Tsikhanouskaya announced her intention to run in his place. She registered as an Independent candidate on 14 July 2020.[5] After registering, she was endorsed by the campaigns of Valery Tsepkalo and Viktar Babaryka, two prominent opposition politicians who were barred from registering, with one being arrested and the other fleeing the country. During the presidential campaign a photo of Tsikhanouskaya with Maria Kolesnikova (Babaryka's campaign chief), and Veronika Tsepkalo (Valery Tsepkalo's wife), became a symbol of her campaign.[6]

The night before the election, police detained senior staffers from Tsikhanouskaya's campaign and she chose to go into hiding in Minsk, before re-emerging on election day at a polling station.[7]

Harassment[edit]​

Before the presidential campaign, Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko insisted that the country was not ready for a female president.[8] Her campaign began as Amnesty International condemned Belarus's discriminatory treatment of women opposition activists, including threats of sexual violence[9] and threats by authorities to take children away from opposition figures and send them to state-run orphanages.[9][10] In response to the threats, Tsikhanouskaya sent her children abroad to live with their grandmother.[10][1][11] During the presidential campaign, Tsikhanouskaya was repeatedly threatened,[12] recounting phone calls from unknown numbers, addressing to her: "We will put you behind bars and place your children in an orphanage."[1] Tsikhanouskaya said she nevertheless decided to persevere in her campaign: "There must be a symbol of freedom."[1]

Platform[edit]​

Tsikhanouskaya said that she ran for president out of love, to free her husband from prison.[13] She has vowed to free all political prisoners in Belarus, to introduce democratic reforms to the country, and to move away from the union treaty with Russia, which many Belarusian opposition activists view as an infringement on the country's sovereignty.[1] She has also pledged to set a referendum on returning to the original draft of the 1994 Belarusian constitution, reinstating a limit of two terms for the president.[7][14] She has said that her main goal is to establish free and fair elections. She views the current election as illegitimate due to the government's refusal to register Lukashenko's main political opponents as candidates. She has pledged to deliver a plan for transparent and accountable elections within six months of taking office.[15]

Tsikhanouskaya's economic platform emphasizes increasing the importance of small and medium sized businesses in the Belarusian economy. She plans to offer interest free loans to small and medium sized businesses, cancel state inspections of private entities and provide legal protection for foreign investors. Tsikhanouskaya intends to allow profitable state owned enterprises to continue to operate, while requiring unprofitable state owned enterprises to get help from outside professionals.[16]

 
I don't think she has been.

Political career[edit]​

2020 Belarusian presidential election campaign[edit]​

Main article: 2020 Belarusian presidential election
After her husband's arrest on 29 May, Tsikhanouskaya announced her intention to run in his place. She registered as an Independent candidate on 14 July 2020.[5] After registering, she was endorsed by the campaigns of Valery Tsepkalo and Viktar Babaryka, two prominent opposition politicians who were barred from registering, with one being arrested and the other fleeing the country. During the presidential campaign a photo of Tsikhanouskaya with Maria Kolesnikova (Babaryka's campaign chief), and Veronika Tsepkalo (Valery Tsepkalo's wife), became a symbol of her campaign.[6]

The night before the election, police detained senior staffers from Tsikhanouskaya's campaign and she chose to go into hiding in Minsk, before re-emerging on election day at a polling station.[7]

Harassment[edit]​

Before the presidential campaign, Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko insisted that the country was not ready for a female president.[8] Her campaign began as Amnesty International condemned Belarus's discriminatory treatment of women opposition activists, including threats of sexual violence[9] and threats by authorities to take children away from opposition figures and send them to state-run orphanages.[9][10] In response to the threats, Tsikhanouskaya sent her children abroad to live with their grandmother.[10][1][11] During the presidential campaign, Tsikhanouskaya was repeatedly threatened,[12] recounting phone calls from unknown numbers, addressing to her: "We will put you behind bars and place your children in an orphanage."[1] Tsikhanouskaya said she nevertheless decided to persevere in her campaign: "There must be a symbol of freedom."[1]

Platform[edit]​

Tsikhanouskaya said that she ran for president out of love, to free her husband from prison.[13] She has vowed to free all political prisoners in Belarus, to introduce democratic reforms to the country, and to move away from the union treaty with Russia, which many Belarusian opposition activists view as an infringement on the country's sovereignty.[1] She has also pledged to set a referendum on returning to the original draft of the 1994 Belarusian constitution, reinstating a limit of two terms for the president.[7][14] She has said that her main goal is to establish free and fair elections. She views the current election as illegitimate due to the government's refusal to register Lukashenko's main political opponents as candidates. She has pledged to deliver a plan for transparent and accountable elections within six months of taking office.[15]

Tsikhanouskaya's economic platform emphasizes increasing the importance of small and medium sized businesses in the Belarusian economy. She plans to offer interest free loans to small and medium sized businesses, cancel state inspections of private entities and provide legal protection for foreign investors. Tsikhanouskaya intends to allow profitable state owned enterprises to continue to operate, while requiring unprofitable state owned enterprises to get help from outside professionals.[16]

She didn't win:

2020s: Strained relationship and reconciliation​

On 24 January 2020, signs of new tensions between Belarus and Russia showed when Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenko publicly accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of trying to make Belarus a part of Russia.[15] This led to Russia cutting economic subsidies for Belarus.[16]

In July 2020, the relationship between Belarus and Russia was described as "strained" after 33 Russian military contractors were arrested in Minsk.[17] Lukashenko afterwards accused Russia of trying to cover up an attempt to send 200 fighters from a private Russian military firm known as the Wagner Group into Belarus on a mission to destabilize the country ahead of its 9 August presidential election.[18]

On 5 August 2020, Russia's security chief Dmitry Medvedev warned Belarus to release the contractors.[16] Lukashenko also claimed Russia was lying about its attempts to use the Wagner Group to influence the upcoming election.[19]

Following the presidential election and eruption of new protests, Lukashenko mentioned by the end of August that Belarus would negotiate refinancing of its state debt worth $1bn with Russia.[20] On 14 September, Lukashenko visited Putin in Sochi, where the latter promised to loan $1.5bn to Belarus.[21]

In February 2022, Russian forces were permitted to stage part of the invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory.[22] Lukashenko stated that Belarusian troops could take part in the invasion if needed.[23] Belarus has also stated that Russia can bring its nuclear weapons onto Belarusian soil.[24] In March 2022, Oleksandr Kamyshin, head of Ukrainian Railways, said there is no longer a railway connection between Ukraine and Belarus, so Russian equipment from Belarus will not be able to be delivered.[25]

 
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Here's my thinking...

NATO/US have scrupulously kept away from a direct military confrontation with Russia because of the threat of escalation (aka Russia has nukes)

If Russia uses nukes v Ukraine and NATO/US respond militarily I'd say that threat of escalation (Nukes) goes up exponentially. Is Ukraine worth risking Nuclear Armageddon? That's the calculation the US/NATO (US primarily) will have to make.

I think there's a pretty good chance they respond militarily....I'm just saying it's not a given. I think the amount of sphincter tightening amongst US/NATO members when the "unthinkable" becomes "thinkable" is under estimated,
Ukraine isn't, I'm not sure any single country is except the US. However, if we do nothing, then Putin wins. Appeasement doesn't work. I'm not saying the US should use nukes back, although that can't be ruled out. Ideally, I would like to think we have some super secret special forces plan to eliminate Putin if he does use nukes.

If you were Special Forces, would you take a suicide mission to eliminate Putin after he nuked Ukraine? Something like that might be the only way to end him without ending civilization.
 
Ukraine isn't, I'm not sure any single country is except the US. However, if we do nothing, then Putin wins. Appeasement doesn't work. I'm not saying the US should use nukes back, although that can't be ruled out. Ideally, I would like to think we have some super secret special forces plan to eliminate Putin if he does use nukes.

If you were Special Forces, would you take a suicide mission to eliminate Putin after he nuked Ukraine? Something like that might be the only way to end him without ending civilization.
I think the thing with Russia is that the rot is so deep that if you get rid of Putin you might end up with another a-hole who is bad or worse.

It’d be nice if a guy like Navalny could step in BUT if the US/NATO is seen as installing him he immediately loses legitimacy as a puppet. Russia has to change from within but I don’t know if it’s even possible…..they’ve been rotten for so long
 
I think the thing with Russia is that the rot is so deep that if you get rid of Putin you might end up with another a-hole who is bad or worse.

It’d be nice if a guy like Navalny could step in BUT if the US/NATO is seen as installing him he immediately loses legitimacy as a puppet. Russia has to change from within but I don’t know if it’s even possible…..they’ve been rotten for so long
That is why they need defeated soundly.
 
I think the thing with Russia is that the rot is so deep that if you get rid of Putin you might end up with another a-hole who is bad or worse.

It’d be nice if a guy like Navalny could step in BUT if the US/NATO is seen as installing him he immediately loses legitimacy as a puppet. Russia has to change from within but I don’t know if it’s even possible…..they’ve been rotten for so long
That's exactly what you'll have, but you hope the next douchebag ends the war in Ukraine while he consolidates power. Ultimately, I'd like to see the country broken up into about 20 smaller countries but I'm afraid that will just create a bunch of kingdoms all fighting with each other. I guess that would be ok as long as we took all the nukes away.
 
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