There was a period when Donald Trump was probably sincerely chastened. His efforts to subvert the 2020 election results collapsed in the early morning hours of Jan. 7, 2021, after thousands of his supporters had stormed the U.S. Capitol in one last putsch. He sheepishly withdrew from Washington hours before Joe Biden was inaugurated, decamping to his private quarters at his private club in Florida. It probably isn’t the case that he was so forlorn that he was skipping many meals, but it did seem as though — banished from social media and out of power — his long run of defying gravity had ended.
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It hadn’t. Immediately after his departure, his allies in politics and right-wing media began defending and rationalizing his actions. Part of this was simply autopilot; they’d been doing so for five years already. Part of it was recognition that it was what their voters, readers and viewers demanded. Part of it, too, was that he was a natural foil for the new Democratic president. So by the spring of this year, Trump had regained his position as the driving force of the Republican Party and its most likely nominee for the presidency in 2024.
This reemergence has spurred new consideration of what it would mean should Trump win next year’s election. After all, this would not be comparable to his inauguration in 2017, an event that took most people by surprise and demanded that he quickly figure out what, exactly, he was going to do. Positioned between the base that devoured his hostile rhetoric and the party that facilitated his election, he split the difference, bringing with him advisers (Stephen K. Bannon and Reince Priebus, respectively) from each camp.
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He learned his lesson. The latter camp encouraged him to respect the informal (and, of course, formal) boundaries that accompanied the job. The former camp let him do what he wanted. By the end of his term, nearly all that was left was those enablers, and he’d discovered that most of the boundaries he’d been encouraged to respect were transparently thin. That’s the recognition that he’d take into January 2025.
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Trump’s rhetoric, as the likelihood of his being renominated increases, has been less constrained even than it was on the campaign trail in 2015. He promises in explicit terms to use government power against his opponents and in support of himself. He talks about the presidency as though it is meant to be returned to him rather than as something for which he is offering himself as a candidate.
The likelihood of his renomination and his musings about what he would do if given the power of the presidency have spurred discussion about how he might use his position should he win next year. But this discussion ignores an important point: Many of the fears people have raised about what Trump might do reflect things that he did or tried to do the first time around.
We can very obviously begin at the end. Would Trump be content with two terms in office or would he seek to retain power after his second term? Well, as you’ll recall, he and his allies worked tirelessly from Nov. 3, 2020, to Jan. 6, 2021, on retaining his position despite his having lost the presidential election. He deployed nearly every tool he or his allies could think of to subvert the electoral college votes cast by states he lost. He entertained theories about special investigations, seizing voting machines and upending federal law enforcement. He pressured state actors to overturn the results without success, though at a far more substantial cost to those state officials than he has yet paid.
This is informative particularly because it shows how little attention Trump paid to institutional boundaries in a moment where he had few dissenters on his team. Oh, the 22nd Amendment says that presidents can serve only two terms in office? Rest assured that Trump can find some pliant attorneys willing to argue that there’s wiggle room. He’ll just wait in the White House until the dispute has been resolved.
Keeping up with politics is easy with The 5-Minute Fix Newsletter, in your inbox weekdays.
It hadn’t. Immediately after his departure, his allies in politics and right-wing media began defending and rationalizing his actions. Part of this was simply autopilot; they’d been doing so for five years already. Part of it was recognition that it was what their voters, readers and viewers demanded. Part of it, too, was that he was a natural foil for the new Democratic president. So by the spring of this year, Trump had regained his position as the driving force of the Republican Party and its most likely nominee for the presidency in 2024.
This reemergence has spurred new consideration of what it would mean should Trump win next year’s election. After all, this would not be comparable to his inauguration in 2017, an event that took most people by surprise and demanded that he quickly figure out what, exactly, he was going to do. Positioned between the base that devoured his hostile rhetoric and the party that facilitated his election, he split the difference, bringing with him advisers (Stephen K. Bannon and Reince Priebus, respectively) from each camp.
ADVERTISING
He learned his lesson. The latter camp encouraged him to respect the informal (and, of course, formal) boundaries that accompanied the job. The former camp let him do what he wanted. By the end of his term, nearly all that was left was those enablers, and he’d discovered that most of the boundaries he’d been encouraged to respect were transparently thin. That’s the recognition that he’d take into January 2025.
Sign up for How To Read This Chart, a weekly data newsletter from Philip Bump
Trump’s rhetoric, as the likelihood of his being renominated increases, has been less constrained even than it was on the campaign trail in 2015. He promises in explicit terms to use government power against his opponents and in support of himself. He talks about the presidency as though it is meant to be returned to him rather than as something for which he is offering himself as a candidate.
The likelihood of his renomination and his musings about what he would do if given the power of the presidency have spurred discussion about how he might use his position should he win next year. But this discussion ignores an important point: Many of the fears people have raised about what Trump might do reflect things that he did or tried to do the first time around.
We can very obviously begin at the end. Would Trump be content with two terms in office or would he seek to retain power after his second term? Well, as you’ll recall, he and his allies worked tirelessly from Nov. 3, 2020, to Jan. 6, 2021, on retaining his position despite his having lost the presidential election. He deployed nearly every tool he or his allies could think of to subvert the electoral college votes cast by states he lost. He entertained theories about special investigations, seizing voting machines and upending federal law enforcement. He pressured state actors to overturn the results without success, though at a far more substantial cost to those state officials than he has yet paid.
This is informative particularly because it shows how little attention Trump paid to institutional boundaries in a moment where he had few dissenters on his team. Oh, the 22nd Amendment says that presidents can serve only two terms in office? Rest assured that Trump can find some pliant attorneys willing to argue that there’s wiggle room. He’ll just wait in the White House until the dispute has been resolved.
