Two true freshmen champions

[Aardvark86]

A true statistical study would randomly assign top HS wrestler to various programs and compare results. Penn States elite recruits under Cael have not come to campus randomly.

Well of course, but I must say I'm not quite sure how one would do that given that it's like, their lives, rather than a clinical trial. But I do think the inference of some sort of correlation is there.

But you raise an interesting point. Perhaps the real insight of this data is not so much what it tells us about whether Bael can coach. Perhaps the real insight is that it tells us whether he may be PERCEIVED as being able to coach. If "perfection" of elite status at an institution seems to occur at a higher rate than other institutions in a universe where participants can choose their institution, and elite participants then flock to that institution (which I think is what you guys seem to wring your hands about a lot), perhaps it tells you that the perception of quality coaching is at least one important factor in the minds of elite recruits. And may be it's not just money as some here would believe.

 

[MSU158]

I'm going to give you a B minus for this post - you tried to let it go but just couldn't resist telling me my examples "suck." I love this board.

I wonder why the Cael kids seem as a group to do better than their fellow top 10 peers?

Not sure if that is completely accurate.

tOSU has done nearly as well with Snyder, NaTo, BoJo, Martin, Micah, Pletcher and now McKenna.

You still have to include Gulibon, Nevills and Lee and get a semi-asterisk for throwing back Marstellar and Haines

 

[Aardvark86]

Nor have top recruits been recruited randomly by top programs.

Not all Top X recruits in a given weight, especially across weights, are created equally.

I should hope not.

 

[FrontHeadlock2]

Well of course, but I must say I'm not quite sure how one would do that given that it's like, their lives, rather than a clinical trial. But I do think the inference of some sort of correlation is there.

But you raise an interesting point. Perhaps the real insight of this data is not so much what it tells us about whether Bael can coach. Perhaps the real insight is that it tells us whether he may be PERCEIVED as being able to coach. If "perfection" of elite status occurs at an institution seems to occur at a higher rate than other institutions in a universe where participants can choose their institution, and elite participants then flock to that institution (which I think is what you guys seem to wring your hands about a lot), perhaps it tells you that the perception of quality coaching is at least one important factor in the minds of elite recruits. And may be it's not just money as some here would believe.

Lol, I love that you're using "Bael" here.

I hear what you're saying. I actually think it's simpler than that -- I think that guys like team titles and being a part of a dynasty.

In addition, paradoxically there may actually be LESS pressure for a top recruit at a school like PSU, because they are so stacked they rely less on any one wrestler's contribution.

 

[Aardvark86]

Lol, I love that you're using "Bael" here.

I hear what you're saying. I actually think it's simpler than that -- I think that guys like team titles and being a part of a dynasty.

In addition, paradoxically there may actually be LESS pressure for a top recruit at a school like PSU, because they are so stacked they rely less on any one wrestler's contribution.

Yeah, I don't get too worked up about nicknames, even when perjorative. I actually think Bael is among the funnier ones on this board. (Though I've always wondered in this day and age why we don't see more "Kale", because for God's sake my wife won't let me avoid it at the dinner table).

You're right -- what's desirable is both fulfillment of personal ambition and the sexiness of team trophies...unless of course Bo was just faking it the other night.

 

[FrontHeadlock2]

Yeah, I don't get too worked up about nicknames, even when perjorative. I actually think Bael is among the funnier ones on this board. (Though I've always wondered in this day and age why we don't see more "Kale", because for God's sake my wife won't let me avoid it at the dinner table).

You're right -- what's desirable is both fulfillment of personal ambition and the sexiness of team trophies...unless of course Bo was just faking it the other night.

ha, I don't think Bo was faking, which is why it was especially jarring

 

[pawrestlersintn]

A true statistical study would randomly assign top HS wrestler to various programs and compare results. Penn States elite recruits under Cael have not come to campus randomly.

No, you are right. Cael is very deliberate in the kids he makes offers to. I've been told that his discussions with recruits are very different from other coaches.

 

[jvclark]

You are missing something major with your analysis.

Saying, "Well, it's easy to get a great recruit to AA or NC. Cael gets a bunch of them, so that's why he has so many." That's not accurate at all. Penn State can only take so many guys, leaving lots of other top recruits to go to other schools, which provides data to look at.

For the 2011-2016 recruiting classes, and excluding 2018 championships, using D1CW data...

PSU Top 25 recruits have AAed 78.3% of their opportunities.
All other Top 25 recruits have AAed just 32.7% of the time.

That means Cael's Top 25 kids are more than doubling the rate of AAs by all other top 25 recruits.

PSU Top 25 recruits have won NCs 30.4% of their opportunities, while all other Top 25 recruits have won NCs just 5.7% of the time, a 500% difference.

That means, if you stick a random Top 25 recruit on PSU or on any other team, the kid that goes to PSU has a 239% better chance of becoming AA and a 533% better chance of becoming a national champ at Penn State.

For Top Ten recruits, the data looks like this:
AA: PSU 78.3%, All others 38.8
NC: PSU 38.8, All others 8.3

No offense PA, but i dont buy into that data AT ALL. What you should have said somewhere in there, was, "what % of the the top 25 recruits that PSU got were in the top 5 of their P4P class?"

On paper, to the layman(not saying you are), the difference between top 5 or top 25 recruit may not be much, but we all know it is. There is also a big difference between the number 10 recruit and the number 1 recruit. I feel pretty comfortable saying in the past 8 years, Cael has had more #1 recruits than #10 recruits.

All data can be manipulated. LIke your "random recruit" comment. You say that like its an absolute truth as if all of PSU's top 25 recruits were randomly selected from the top 25 when in reality their top 25 recruits were more often like #1, #3,#7 and #12 for any years class.

Thanks for the effort. I am not buying it.

 

[natchrlman]

Wtf did I start... I simply started this post because I found it amazing how much better it seems some kids are coming out of high school ready to compete at the highest college level... had nothing to do with recruiting or the coaching in college.... how much better really is a college coach going to make them in one season....wrestlers are coming out of high school both physically and technically prepared....I have to say the influx of you Penn State fans on our board is really starting to get old....I have been on this board 20 years and never once ever went to the penn state board....and this is coming from a guy that has had many a beers and great discussion from penn state and other fan bases at post season tourneys...this shit of you coming over and hijacking threads is getting fing old

 

[FrontHeadlock2]

No, you are right. Cael is very deliberate in the kids he makes offers to. I've been told that his discussions with recruits are very different from other coaches.

I'm sure they are...

 

[natchrlman]

A true statistical study would randomly assign top HS wrestler to various programs and compare results. Penn States elite recruits under Cael have not come to campus randomly.

No, you are right. Cael is very deliberate in the kids he makes offers to. I've been told that his discussions with recruits are very different from other coaches.

Yea he says negative things about Iowa coaches...Spencer Lee mentioned that and said the fact Iowa coached didn’t do that kind of crap factored big time in his decision... unfortunately not all kids that age are mature enough to recognize that

 

[MSU158]

Teams with the most top 10 recruits since 2012:
PSU:9
tOSU:8(1transfer)
Cornell:5
OkState:4
Iowa:4
ASU:4(1transfer)
Illinois:3

 

[pawrestlersintn]

No offense PA, but i dont buy into that data AT ALL. What you should have said somewhere in there, was, "what % of the the top 25 recruits that PSU got were in the top 5 of their P4P class?"

On paper, to the layman(not saying you are), the difference between top 5 or top 25 recruit may not be much, but we all know it is. There is also a big difference between the number 10 recruit and the number 1 recruit. I feel pretty comfortable saying in the past 8 years, Cael has had more #1 recruits than #10 recruits.

All data can be manipulated. LIke your "random recruit" comment. You say that like its an absolute truth as if all of PSU's top 25 recruits were randomly selected from the top 25 when in reality their top 25 recruits were more often like #1, #3,#7 and #12 for any years class.

Thanks for the effort. I am not buying it.

Except that I drilled all the way down to just the #1 in weight class recruits. I did misspeak, and should have said, "take a #1 recruit and his chance of NC or AA" is better at PSU than the average school. Without actually doing the work, I'll bet the same can be said of any #X recruit.

 

[pawrestlersintn]

Yea he says negative things about Iowa coaches...Spencer Lee mentioned that and said the fact Iowa coached didn’t do that kind of crap factored big time in his decision... unfortunately not all kids that age are mature enough to recognize that

Show me an article or an interview where Spencer said that about Cael Sanderson. You can't.

 

[Aardvark86]

Wtf did I start... I simply started this post because I found it amazing how much better it seems some kids are coming out of high school ready to compete at the highest college level... had nothing to do with recruiting or the coaching in college.... how much better really is a college coach going to make them in one season....wrestlers are coming out of high school both physically and technically prepared....I have to say the influx of you Penn State fans on our board is really starting to get old....I have been on this board 20 years and never once ever went to the penn state board....and this is coming from a guy that has had many a beers and great discussion from penn state and other fan bases at post season tourneys...this shit of you coming over and hijacking threads is getting fing old

Natch, don't despair! You're absolutely right that kids are trained better and ready earlier. And as to the discussion that followed, I actually think this was orders of magnitude more interesting than the usual fare in that we've actually been mulling data and haven't yet reverted to name calling to any significant or serious degree! Better yet, as a lawyer, I'm happy to report that we haven't even reached the point where someone said the other person's point is "mute."
And come by BWI for a visit sometime. It's unfortunately true what you've heard, that some people bite if you say anything that doesn't praise PA. It's a genetic thing. But some of us don't.

 

[pawrestlersintn]

I'm sure they are...

You know that whole fun and grateful thing.

 

[natchrlman]

Yea he says negative things about Iowa coaches...Spencer Lee mentioned that and said the fact Iowa coached didn’t do that kind of crap factored big time in his decision... unfortunately not all kids that age are mature enough to recognize that

Show me an article or an interview where Spencer said that about Cael Sanderson. You can't.

Your so fing skilled at looking shit up on the Internet find it yourself...I’ve seen it as many of us have.... I’m done wasting time on you trolls go the f*** away

 

[natchrlman]

Wtf did I start... I simply started this post because I found it amazing how much better it seems some kids are coming out of high school ready to compete at the highest college level... had nothing to do with recruiting or the coaching in college.... how much better really is a college coach going to make them in one season....wrestlers are coming out of high school both physically and technically prepared....I have to say the influx of you Penn State fans on our board is really starting to get old....I have been on this board 20 years and never once ever went to the penn state board....and this is coming from a guy that has had many a beers and great discussion from penn state and other fan bases at post season tourneys...this shit of you coming over and hijacking threads is getting fing old

Natch, don't despair! You're absolutely right that kids are trained better and ready earlier. And as to the discussion that followed, I actually think this was orders of magnitude more interesting than the usual fare in that we've actually been mulling data and haven't yet reverted to name calling to any significant or serious degree!
And come by BWI for a visit sometime. It's unfortunately true what you've heard, that some people bite if you say anything that doesn't praise PA. It's a genetic thing. But some of us don't.

I’ve met a lot of great PSU fans at Nationals.... message boards don’t always attract fan bases finest

 

[Aardvark86]

I’ve met a lot of great PSU fans at Nationals.... message boards don’t always attract fan bases finest

True that! But this subset isn't really that bad either.

 

[natchrlman]

Wtf did I start... I simply started this post because I found it amazing how much better it seems some kids are coming out of high school ready to compete at the highest college level... had nothing to do with recruiting or the coaching in college.... how much better really is a college coach going to make them in one season....wrestlers are coming out of high school both physically and technically prepared....I have to say the influx of you Penn State fans on our board is really starting to get old....I have been on this board 20 years and never once ever went to the penn state board....and this is coming from a guy that has had many a beers and great discussion from penn state and other fan bases at post season tourneys...this shit of you coming over and hijacking threads is getting fing old

Natch, don't despair! You're absolutely right that kids are trained better and ready earlier. And as to the discussion that followed, I actually think this was orders of magnitude more interesting than the usual fare in that we've actually been mulling data and haven't yet reverted to name calling to any significant or serious degree! Better yet, as a lawyer, I'm happy to report that we haven't even reached the point where someone said the other person's point is "mute."
And come by BWI for a visit sometime. It's unfortunately true what you've heard, that some people bite if you say anything that doesn't praise PA. It's a genetic thing. But some of us don't.

And nothing personal I have zero desire to go to another teams site...I could care less what’s going on there and barely have time to waste on here as much as I do.... but I enjoy keeping up with the team I love...I honestly don’t understand PSU people coming over here and starting arguments... that much free time? Brings to mind an image of someone living in their moms basement

 

[FrontHeadlock2]

Except that I drilled all the way down to just the #1 in weight class recruits. I did misspeak, and should have said, "take a #1 recruit and his chance of NC or AA" is better at PSU than the average school. Without actually doing the work, I'll bet the same can be said of any #X recruit.

Sigh -- you're still assuming that all #1 in their weight class recruits are created equal. PSU/OSU/Iowa might all be vying for the same 3-4 exceptional guys who are #1 in their weight class, Lee/Retherford/Snyder types.

Someone who is #1 in a very weak HS weight and who has off the mat issues may not be recruited by any of them, and may not be that successful in college.

 

[pawrestlersintn]

Your so fing skilled at looking shit up on the Internet find it yourself...I’ve seen it as many of us have.... I’m done wasting time on you trolls go the f*** away

Not sure what I did to deserve that, but I cannot find it on the internet, because it does not exist. What does exist is this: https://www.flowrestling.org/articl...tive-recruiting-spencer-lee-s-redshirt-status

Trouble is, Tom never mentions Cael. So, some of your fellow board members inferred that it just had to be Cael, because, well, because Cael, damnit. So, again, if you have proof of Cael interviewing negatively, let's have it.

 

[pawrestlersintn]

Sigh -- you're still assuming that all #1 in their weight class recruits are created equal. PSU/OSU/Iowa might all be vying for the same 3-4 exceptional guys who are #1 in their weight class, Lee/Retherford/Snyder types.

Someone who is #1 in a very weak HS weight and who has off the mat issues may not be recruited by any of them, and may not be that successful in college.

Well, it's six recruiting years worth of data, so as with any other "study" like this, more data makes for better analysis, but it's what we've got.

 

[Aardvark86]

And nothing personal I have zero desire to go to another teams site...I could care less what’s going on there and barely have time to waste on here as much as I do.... but I enjoy keeping up with the team I love...I honestly don’t understand PSU people coming over here and starting arguments... that much free time? Brings to mind an image of someone living in their moms basement

To each his own.

 

[Dagboi]

Well of course, but I must say I'm not quite sure how one would do that given that it's like, their lives, rather than a clinical trial. But I do think the inference of some sort of correlation is there.

But you raise an interesting point. Perhaps the real insight of this data is not so much what it tells us about whether Bael can coach. Perhaps the real insight is that it tells us whether he may be PERCEIVED as being able to coach. If "perfection" of elite status at an institution seems to occur at a higher rate than other institutions in a universe where participants can choose their institution, and elite participants then flock to that institution (which I think is what you guys seem to wring your hands about a lot), perhaps it tells you that the perception of quality coaching is at least one important factor in the minds of elite recruits. And may be it's not just money as some here would believe.

I'm not a fan of Cael, (though I do respect some of his wrestlers).....but it does bear mentioning that someone on the PSU staff is doing a heck of a job getting their wrestlers mentally prepared for big matches. I dunno, maybe it's Cunningham.

But when I look at what happened to us in quarterfinals, then contrast it with PSU going 5-0 in the semis, I have to give a begrudging nod of the cap to the fact that they all came out prepared to wrestle at their peak. That ain't always so easy.

EDITED: Sorry, I meant Rd of 16 and quarterfinals....basically, that a lot of our most promising guys went down before their time.

 

[natchrlman]

And nothing personal I have zero desire to go to another teams site...I could care less what’s going on there and barely have time to waste on here as much as I do.... but I enjoy keeping up with the team I love...I honestly don’t understand PSU people coming over here and starting arguments... that much free time? Brings to mind an image of someone living in their moms basement

To each his own.

Exactly.... let’s take a poll of all the Iowa fans in this post .... who enjoys having all the Penn State input on this board? I’m admittedly a grumpy old man

 

[Dagboi]

Exactly.... let’s take a poll of all the Iowa fans in this post .... who enjoys having all the Penn State input on this board? I’m admittedly a grumpy old man

 

[Aardvark86]

I'm not a fan of Cael, (though I do respect some of his wrestlers).....but it does bear mentioning that someone on the PSU staff is doing a heck of a job getting their wrestlers mentally prepared for big matches. I dunno, maybe it's Cunningham.

But when I look at what happened to us in quarterfinals, then contrast it with PSU going 5-0 in the semis, I have to give a begrudging nod of the cap to the fact that they all came out prepared to wrestle at their peak. That ain't always so easy.

Yeah, this is a totally anecdotal principle that I believe to the depth of my soul is true across all sports -- that players consistently coming up big in big situations is often associated with great coaching to a significant degree. I'm not sure how you'd ever test it though.

 

[Dagboi]

Yeah, this is a totally anecdotal principle that I believe to the depth of my soul is true across all sports -- that players consistently coming up big in big situations is often associated with great coaching to a significant degree. I'm not sure how you'd ever test it though.

You'd hire Phil Jackson and let it ride.....

 

[Aardvark86]

Exactly.... let’s take a poll of all the Iowa fans in this post .... who enjoys having all the Penn State input on this board? I’m admittedly a grumpy old man

Only if it's a statistically valid sample...

 

[natchrlman]

Exactly.... let’s take a poll of all the Iowa fans in this post .... who enjoys having all the Penn State input on this board? I’m admittedly a grumpy old man

Only if it's a statistically valid sample...

I actually kind of like you

 

[MSU158]

Yeah, this is a totally anecdotal principle that I believe to the depth of my soul is true across all sports -- that players consistently coming up big in big situations is often associated with great coaching to a significant degree. I'm not sure how you'd ever test it though.

Agreed. This is one of the major reasons I believe Montana and Brady are overrated. To be CLEAR, I think they are both great and still worthy of the GOAT discussion. However, they played in the 2 best systems of their time BY FAR. Considering there are 33 other positions(if you include special teams), a QB gets too much credit OR penalty for number of team championships.

 

[Aardvark86]

You'd hire Phil Jackson and let it ride.....

You bet -- and Red Auerbach, and Bill Belicheck, and Herb Brooks

I actually kind of like you

let's not get carried away now....

 

[Dagboi]

I actually kind of like you

He's one of the good ones.

Or is it, he's the one good one? I forget.

 

[FrontHeadlock2]

Yeah, this is a totally anecdotal principle that I believe to the depth of my soul is true across all sports -- that players consistently coming up big in big situations is often associated with great coaching to a significant degree. I'm not sure how you'd ever test it though.

I think it's also that PSU has been so stacked that a loss by one of their studs wouldn't be super detrimental. That can take the edge off as opposed to being on a team that has to thread the proverbial needle.

Now you may say that they were challenged this year and that's true, but their studs won 5 national titles last year, and having a title in the bag is its own form of stress relief.

 

[natchrlman]

I actually kind of like you

He's one of the good ones.

Or is it, he's the one good one? I forget.

I’d buy him a beer

 

[Aardvark86]

I think it's also that PSU has been so stacked that a loss by one of their studs wouldn't be super detrimental. That can take the edge off as opposed to being on a team that has to thread the proverbial needle.

Now you may say that they were challenged this year and that's true, but their studs won 5 national titles last year, and having a title in the bag is its own form of stress relief.

I sorta believe there's something to that, but let me just say I'm not sure I would have wanted to be Bo Nickal on Saturday night.

 

[redghost1974]

The whole argument of top 10 or top 5 recruits is still subjective. I would argue post season achievement (jr. nationals and more specifically jr. world accolades) matter most. Without a doubt Carl has been stockpiling those guys. Was Meeks really a top 5 guy or was it a week year for his weight. I would look at rankings overall vs by weight as a better indicator of who is AA ready when they step on campus.

Cael is an outstanding coach, I would say his first batch of champions are a better indication of what he can do than this round, you could see his influence by all the ankle picking Taylor and Ruth did.

 

[Aardvark86]

I’d buy him a beer

Let me know if you're ever in the DC area. I'd enjoy it, and I've got the second round.

 

[rossel 33]

I wonder why the Cael kids seem as a group to do better than their fellow top 10 peers?

The answer could have something to do not all top 10 guys are equal. Occasionally there are consensus superstars, and they are typically ranked #1.


2014
#1 Snyder - World Jr gold medalist - to tOSU 2,1,1,1
#10 Solomon Chisko

2016
#1 Mark Hall - #1 p4p, 2x World Jr gold medalist - to PSU, ncaa champ as tr fr
# 9 Beau Breske

2018
#1 Steveson - 2x Jr World gold medalist. Most feel he will be a superstar and
could AA without RS year.
#10 Sasso