Fran is the most underachieving coach in the ncaa tournament in last 10 years. See here
“I think Iowa's best shot at getting to the S16 is for Fran to make some tweaks” -definition of insanity
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“I think Iowa's best shot at getting to the S16 is for Fran to make some tweaks” -definition of insanity
I hope you aren't a gambler because this is the literal definition of gambler's fallacy. If Fran keeps making the tournament at a 100% rate, they will break through. And if he starts regularly missing the tournament, then I'll get out the pitchfork and join you.
There's lots of good coaches that, for whatever reason, seem to take a while for there to be post-season success--Greg McDermott was a D1 coach for 20 years before he saw a S16. Lisa Bluder was at Iowa for 14 seasons before a S16. Brad Underwood is in year 10 as a D1 coach and has yet to make a S16. I think the thing that's important is to continually get there and give yourself chances to break through. The tournament often times the better team wins--but that isn't always the case. This year's final 4 is a prime example of that. Miami is a terrible defensive team; FAU got really lucky to win their first round game; San Diego St is a bad offensive team--the point is that all teams have flaws and there is an element of luck involved in the tournament--not every game, but there are some.
There is a reason that KenPom classifies winning close games as "Luck" because in basketball a close game can be decided by a bad call here or a weird bounce there. It's a game of small margins. Iowa was just in an overtime game a few years ago in the tournament; last year's game against Richmond was a 2 possession game. If Iowa makes a couple more open shots in both of those games, they win. Is that a coaching failure? I certainly think that some blame can certainly be placed there. But at the end of the day there's also a mixture of player execution and luck involved as well.
And that's my biggest gripe--we're really that good of a basketball program that we're judging a coach's tenure based on a couple one or two possession games in the postseason?
I go on a lot of Big Ten message boards, you know what the common sentiment was when Fran was rumored to go to Notre Dame? "God I hope he leaves because I'm tired of Iowa being good in basketball." Other Big Ten fans think that Iowa basketball would be another Nebraska or Minnesota without Fran--that may not be true, but that is the thought process behind a lot of other fan bases.
Far too reasonable of a post!
That whole doom and gloom of poor little Iowa just isn’t true. At all. We’re a top 25 athletic department. We’re putting together a solid NIL package as well. We’re good in almost every single sport. How did the Blue bloods that everyone on here whines about do this year? UNC? Michigan? Ohio State? Oh, they didn’t even make the tournament. We have plenty of resources. And again, look at the Final 4. Miami has almost No basketball history, they draw poorly and are considered more of a fb school than a basketball school. And they’re a small private university. FL Atlantic? Give me a break. Zero facilities or tradition. San Diego St plays in the Mountain West. Not exactly a hotbed of basketball. We have more money, better facilities and play in a better conference. Tired of hearing why we can’t compete.
I want the Hawkeyes to at least reach the round of 32 every four years. It may require being a higher seed. That means beating Eastern Illinois and not getting swept by Wisconsin and Nebraska.
I will be very surprised and disappointed if Fran strikes out in the portal again this year. I think he finally realizes that college BB has changed, and having a one-directional portal (out) is not going to lead to success. Fran knows that we need an experienced athletic big man for success, and adding him to the incoming recruiting class, could give him what he needs to win. Assuming we are also getting Brauns, maybe as a preferred walk on, adding two impact players should be possible. Fran knows better than I what else he needs, but I hope that both players are tough, athletic, and like to play defense. It would also help if the second player can hit 3s.
this infographic is pure data, no subjectivity, clearly shows IOWA is most underperforming Tournament team,
this is not “a couple of games”, this is 10 years of appearences.
IMHO, if your statement of truth is “fans on other teams boards” then the bar for truth is very low indeed.
Kenpom and luck.
A. Ever ask Why is it IOWA is always on the negative side of the KenPom luck metric?
B. I think you should be asking why consistently poor kenpom defensive metrics lead to consistently poor tournament results.
It will. The large number of high quality players necessary to maintain a good football program (e.g. the number of future NFL players) will have payrolls like 1980s NFL teams, if not more. That money is simply unavailable to schools like Iowa.
Of course you have to get there to win. What's your solution? New coach? As successful as the last time we hired the NCoY, coming off a Sweet 16 performance. That solution to Alford's inability to regularly qualify for the NCAA Tournament was the guy I just described-Todd Lickliter.
I live surrounded by Cyclone people. All sides of my house. Around 11 - 12 at night I go out on the deck, use my classic blond Ricky give them all the Iowa fight song Jimmy Hendrix style, really loud and lots of fatty feedback and vibrato.
Guitars, banjos, bass and mandolins.
The solution Is to keep Fran and keep watching his teams get eliminated by inferior teams with superior coaching.
obviously the only coaching candidates are Alford or Lickliters-types. there are no other coaches available capable of taking a team to the S16, there are no Jerome Tang-types, he doesn’t really exist
I’m now convinced Peter principle = Fran
Yeah, there is absolutely no way Iowa could ever ever replace McCaffery with a better coach.
How many appearances and games does the best team (South Carolina) have on this graph?
Where is Kansas on this graph?
Why? Because we were better than this 35 years ago? The last Sweet 16 was 24 years ago.
We have less money, no real cache, a kind of dated arena with generally mediocre attendance-although that has improved in the last few years it seems. We have a citizenship environment that takes a lot of guys, like the guy killing his way through the NC double A, off the table. We are a small state that doesn't generate a large number of D1/P5 players, like say Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Wisconsin, Maryland or even Minnesota and now California. We share the small state with another decent program. Everyone of those larger populations states has more ultra wealthy donors and big business advertisers/sponsors. We do not have anywhere near the national recruiting profiles of Ann Arbor, Sparty, Brutus, Indiana, Purdue and now UCLA and USC. Bucky rose for the last 30 years but that rodent might be regressing to its historical norm. Thank God the goofy little rodents up north only care about hockey.
Other than nostalgia what advantage does Iowa have over any other P5 mid-range school? While we may wish for more success, and God knows I do, but why should we expect it?
Every single weakness I described will be aggravated by the portal unlimited free agency and the NIL's lack of any salary cap.
I applaud Ferentz as he doesn’t play the ‘victim’ card
and of all Frans drawbacks, ive not heard him play the victim card.
So, I take it you’re a firm believer in Bobby Knight’s credo of “if it’s inevitable, might as well lay back and enjoy it?”
A possible solution is to put more emphasis on teaching defense.
None of that. He brings in talent, his teams score plenty of points, but it’s like he’s allergic to defense. He’s been very consistent in his lack of coaching defense.
Maybe these players playing for these mid-major schools are playing with a chip on their shoulders due to none of the blue-bloods gave them a look? Playing angry with something to prove?
I'm not saying we are "victims" or anything reasonably that implies such a notion. I am saying there are a great many factual realities that limit Iowa's ceiling in men's sports. The people that have to make those real-world decisions cannot ignore them like fans demanding or, in this case, expecting more success than qualifying for 8 of the last ten NCAA tournaments. I haven't done the numbers but there probably aren't more than 3 or 4 schools in the Big Ten that have done that well. Although, of course, several have done better in the NCAAs than Iowa.
That doesn't make Iowa anymore of a victim than my inability to play NBA level basketball when I was young. Just the reality that exists and must be considered. So, I chose a more realistic career path.
Well, after 13 years we probably aren't going to see much improvement in that regard. I think we have an acceptable level of success. Were I the decision maker, recognizing the even greater problems to come with a fully mature unlimited free agency and the continued absence of a salary cap I would ride the horse we know and hope he's one of those guys that gets that one magic season where we make a deep run.
It may not happen but we are more likely to make that run than we are to hire a better coach.
It may not happen but we are more likely to make that run than we are to hire a better coach.
No, generally quite the opposite. You have me very very wrong. When I was a 7th grader the 9th graders had this "initiation" ritual. They made the 7th grade boys roll pennies with their noses, shine shoes, etc... Something to get the 7th graders bent over so the 9th graders could push them over. First day my reply was you want me on the ground you will have to get me on the ground pussies. So, all 5' 105 lbds of me got beat up every morning but I never bent over for the ****ers one time, and I made sure I wasn't the only one bleeding.
Although the smart lawyer in me does not project that mentality into making lasting judgments for others, like hiring a Big Ten MBB coach. Sometimes you have to take the least unpleasant of a series of unattractive choices. There are far less attractive options than the one we have now.
Although the smart lawyer in me does not project that mentality into making lasting judgments for others, like hiring a Big Ten MBB coach. Sometimes you have to take the least unpleasant of a series of unattractive choices. There are far less attractive options than the one we have now.
That's some of it. Basketball is also a fairly short and simple game. Just one guy has a career day and suddenly a number 1 seed hits the dirt. One guy gets cold. A bunch of nobodies plays the game of many lives. But, at the end of most tournaments, a BB wins it all.
Although, not this year. Go FAU-pull that witchy Owl magic a couple more times.
That doesn't hold any merit. The odds reset every year with Fran having a proven track record of under-preforming. The betting odds are that he will continue to under-preform at the Big Dance and Big Ten Tournament (only one good showing).
I would like a little higher standard, but that would be a good baseline. Honestly, making the sweet 16 every four years would not be an impossible goal. Going beyond that more than once in a lifetime should also be possible. We have had good enough success during the season under Fran that it is an outlier that we haven't at least reached the sweet 16 once.
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Nope. Fran (like KFz) has decided what his model is and it ain't gonna change...regardless of the obvious flaws in it.
Why? Why can’t we see improvement on defense? Honestly, it’s unacceptable to just ignore and not try to improve that area of the game. We all can see it, but why should we have to accept it?
Because the Iowa coach wins enough games to maintain steady success without being much of a defensive coach. Fran isn't going to change and your opinion or preference, and my preference for more effective defensive, is not going to change that circumstance.
You can either bang your head on the wall or accept what we have, enjoy the wins, hate the losses and always hope for the best. But risking what we have taken a decade to rebuild from the abyss is silly. Most coaching changes fail. Since we aren't guaranteed to improve and are much more likely to regress you can either live with the coaching or allow the frustration of the bad defense drive you away. Complaining about it won't do any good, just build further frustration.
Kick back, enjoy the wins, and there plenty of those, and hope somehow a Fran team comes out fired up and killer in the NCAA tournament. My bitch is F Mac doesn't seem to get the team prepared in big games. We too often come out sluggish or surprised. But, you have to win a lot of important games just to get there in our conference so enjoy those wins.
That shipped has sailed for me. I think we’ve seen the best of what Fran can do for a program. I’m a realist, though, that he’s going to be the coach for the foreseeable future. Iowa basketball, and football to a certain extent, is not must-watch for me anymore, the frustration of inconsistent play and no defense just takes away the enjoyment. And based on attendance, I’m not the only one.
On defense I am convinced that it is as much the jimmys & the Joe's not as much the
X's and the o's.
Fran has to recruit quicker athletes thruout the roster...guys who can stay in front of their man.
X's and the o's.
Fran has to recruit quicker athletes thruout the roster...guys who can stay in front of their man.
I think you’re right about that.
Once apathy settles into the fan base it’s worse possible thing. At least when people have passionate opinions it shows they are “invested” and still believe change is possible.
Both programs have appeared to enter the apathy phase within the fan base.
A new AD now could still have a chance to turn things around before it gets any worse. Not saying he’d make changes to staff immediately, but it would show there is a new sheriff in town and games need to be stepped up; the status quo is no longer going to be rubber-stamped….or in Barta’s case, rewarded.
Apathy entered the fan base as Alford ran the program.....and continued to tank during the Lick era.
There should be some kind of NIL salary cap. Or it will just escalate exponentially. I would propose you lose scholarship rides if you exceed the cap.
Well, Fran had 1 good defensive group, (3 years of good metrics) and it was Woodbury, Clemmons, Gessel and, Uthoff.
How does that line up with your theory regarding athleticism being the issue?
Agreed, but they also need to be stronger, tougher, and play with an attitude. Rebraca and Connor had the attitude, by lacked the athleticism, although Filip was above average for a center. I wish they could hypnotize Patrick to make him play with more of an attitude, because we really could use another 4, and have a lot of 2/3s.
Woody and gessel were good athletic defenders at there positions. Utoff was one of the better rim protectors in Frans years. Clemmons was a strong guard with decent quicks.
Not saying it is all on the players but this season we had too many guys that opponents would isolate then fly by them with ease.
While I agree in principle, that would not be effective. You could win with 50 4 and 5 star players and 50 PFWs, who can also be paid in other ways, like $500 lawn mowing gigs in the summer.
Then why bother to join a group that is dedicated to Iowa athletics, like this website. And, once joined, why bother to comment? If the ship has sailed you are no longer an Iowa fan, just someone with a passing interest in maybe the scores or a perhaps a band wagon jumper. I mean, who wastes time on shit about which they do not care?
No, you're using the fallacy of the coin flip. On the old quarters, that were still silver with a copper center, the actual odds were 73% likely that the coin will come up tails, they were imperfectly weighted. But on every single flip there was a 50% chance it could be a head or a tail.
A lot of NCAA success is luck and a once in the lifetime kind of effort. Iowa would normally kill a team like FAU. We beat better teams from tougher conferences this year and every year. The NCAAs are great because they've figured out a way to showcase the unpredictability of any given basketball game. Houston kills NC State 99 out of 100 games, but in that 100th game that shit team of Valvano's, that shouldn't have been near a FF became the champions. Perfect example of a relatively untalented team that got hot at exactly the perfect time.
Unlimited free agency and no salary cap will soon destroy even that aspect of the tournament.
