This post was updated after the 2023 UConn/San Diego State National Championship game.
ONE Team has made the Final Four in the Last 12 seasons with a defense ranked worse than 70th in the nation. The one team out of 48 (2% chance) was the 2023 Miami FL team (#99 ranked defense), which joined San Diego State (#4 defense), Florida Atlantic (#34 defense) and UConn (#7 defense) in the 2023 Final Four.
Iowa finished the 2022-2023 season with the #4 offense & the #168 defense in the nation.
Iowa basketball finishes in Kenpom adjusted defense the past 5 years:
2023- 168 (out of 363 teams)
2022- 80
2021- 75
2020- 97
2019- 111
The defensive standard for eventual national champions during the last 12 seasons is even higher; each national champion has finished #22 or better. All but three title-winning teams in the last 12 seasons finished the season ranked in the top 10 in defensive efficiency; 2023 national champion UConn finished #7. 2022 national champion Kansas finished # 17. None of the 12 champions has been more "inefficient" than Baylor, which entered the 2021 tournament ranked 35th but finished 22nd, according to Pomeroy.
8 of the remaining 16 teams in 2022 finished the season ranked in the top 22 defensively (Kansas, the champion, and Gonzaga, Arkansas, Texas Tech, UCLA, Arizona, Houston, Iowa State).
9 of the remaining 16 teams in 2023 finished the season ranked in the top 22 defensively (UConn, the champion, San Diego State, the runner up, and Arkansas, UCLA, Houston, Texas, Tennessee, Alabama, Creighton).
4 of the remaining 16 teams in 2022 finished the season ranked in the top 10 defensively (Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Houston, Iowa State).
6 of the remaining 16 teams in 2023 finished the season ranked in the top 10 defensively (UConn, the champion, San Diego State, the runner up and UCLA, Houston, Tennessee, Alabama).
In addition, you can learn a lot by looking at the results of the last 15 NCAA Tournaments. From Kansas cutting down the nets in 2008 to UConn taking the most recent title in 2023, only 6 of 60 teams (10 percent) that went into those tourneys ranked outside the top 20 in KenPom advanced to the Final Four.
2022 Sweet 16 Teams Ranked OVERALL outside the Top 20 after the Title Game:
St Peters
Michigan
Providence
Iowa State
Miami FL
2023 Sweet 16 Teams Ranked OVERALL outside the Top 20 after the Title Game:
Arkansas
Kansas State
Michigan State
Princeton
Miami FL--made the Final 4
Also, if a team is rated higher on both offense and defense, then it can expect to beat anyone in any part of the tournament.
Additional info:
KenPom has been around for 21 National Champions. Of the 21 national champions tracked by KenPom:
* 19 of the 21 national champions in the sample (90.5%) finished in the top 20 for both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency.
* The 2 exceptions: The lowest any finished in Offensive Efficiency was 39th (2014 UConn) and the lowest any finished in Defensive Efficiency was 22nd (2021 Baylor).
* 2023 National Champion UConn was #3 in Offensive Efficiency and #7 in Defensive Efficiency. Runner up San Diego State was #75 in Offensive Efficiency and #4 in Defensive Efficiency.
* 2022 National Champion Kansas was #6 in Offensive Efficiency and #17 in Defensive Efficiency. Runner up North Carolina was #18 in Offensive Efficiency and #35 in Defensive Efficiency.
2023 Sweet 16
KemPom Rankings (after title game):
WEST REGION
Off.....Def
..54........17.....Arkansas (#22 team, per KenPom)
....3.........7......UConn(#1 team, per KenPom) -- Advanced to Final 4, beat Miami (FL), beat San Diego St in National Championship Game
.....1........73.....Gonzaga (#8 team, per KenPom)
...21........2.......UCLA (#3 team, per KenPom)
MIDWEST REGION
Off.....Def
...11.........5.....Houston (#2 team, per KenPom)
...6........99.....Miami FL (#24 team, per KenPom) -- Advanced to Final 4, lost to UConn
...8........64.....Xavier (#15 team, per KenPom)
...15........13.....Texas (#5 team, per KenPom)
EAST REGION
Off.....Def
..22.......34.....Florida Atlantic (#17 team, per KenPom) -- Advanced to Final 4, lost to San Diego St
..64.........1......Tennessee (#6 team, per KenPom)
..37........27.....Kansas State (#21 team, per KenPom)
..27........42.....Michigan State (#26 team, per KenPom)
SOUTH REGION
Off.....Def
.20.........3.....Alabama (#4 team, per KenPom)
..75.........4.....San Diego St (#14 team, per KenPom) -- Advanced to Final 4, beat FAU, lost to UConn in National Championship Game
..23.......14.....Creighton (#12 team, per KenPom)
..97......105.....Princeton (#91 team, per KenPom)
.................................................
2022 Sweet 16
KemPom Rankings (after title game):
WEST REGION
Off.....Def
...3........10......Gonzaga (#1 team, per KenPom)
53........11.....Arkansas (#18 team, per KenPom)
42.........1......Texas Tech (#7 team, per KenPom)
...1.......49....Duke (#8 team, per KenPom) -- Advanced to Final 4, losing to UNC
EAST REGION
Off.....Def
..18........35.....North Carolina (#16 team, per KenPom) -- Advanced to Final 4 & Title Game, losing to Kansas
..12.........16.....UCLA (#11 team, per KenPom)
...2........93.....Purdue (#14 team, per KenPom)
231.......25.....St Peters (#102 team, per KenPom)
SOUTH REGION
Off.....Def
...7.........21.....Arizona (#5 team, per KenPom)
..10.........8.....Houston (#2 team, per KenPom)
..21........74.....Michigan (#27 team, per KenPom)
...9........23.....Villanova (#10 team, per KenPom) -- Advanced to Final 4, losing to Kansas
MIDWEST REGION
Off.....Def
...6........17....Kansas (#3 team, per KenPom) -- Advanced to Final 4, winning National Championship
.36.......44....Providence (#32 team, per KenPom)
171.........5....Iowa State (#43 team, per KenPom)
..19......107...Miami FL (#41 team, per KenPom)
Sources:
ONE Team has made the Final Four in the Last 12 seasons with a defense ranked worse than 70th in the nation. The one team out of 48 (2% chance) was the 2023 Miami FL team (#99 ranked defense), which joined San Diego State (#4 defense), Florida Atlantic (#34 defense) and UConn (#7 defense) in the 2023 Final Four.
Iowa finished the 2022-2023 season with the #4 offense & the #168 defense in the nation.
Iowa basketball finishes in Kenpom adjusted defense the past 5 years:
2023- 168 (out of 363 teams)
2022- 80
2021- 75
2020- 97
2019- 111
The defensive standard for eventual national champions during the last 12 seasons is even higher; each national champion has finished #22 or better. All but three title-winning teams in the last 12 seasons finished the season ranked in the top 10 in defensive efficiency; 2023 national champion UConn finished #7. 2022 national champion Kansas finished # 17. None of the 12 champions has been more "inefficient" than Baylor, which entered the 2021 tournament ranked 35th but finished 22nd, according to Pomeroy.
8 of the remaining 16 teams in 2022 finished the season ranked in the top 22 defensively (Kansas, the champion, and Gonzaga, Arkansas, Texas Tech, UCLA, Arizona, Houston, Iowa State).
9 of the remaining 16 teams in 2023 finished the season ranked in the top 22 defensively (UConn, the champion, San Diego State, the runner up, and Arkansas, UCLA, Houston, Texas, Tennessee, Alabama, Creighton).
4 of the remaining 16 teams in 2022 finished the season ranked in the top 10 defensively (Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Houston, Iowa State).
6 of the remaining 16 teams in 2023 finished the season ranked in the top 10 defensively (UConn, the champion, San Diego State, the runner up and UCLA, Houston, Tennessee, Alabama).
In addition, you can learn a lot by looking at the results of the last 15 NCAA Tournaments. From Kansas cutting down the nets in 2008 to UConn taking the most recent title in 2023, only 6 of 60 teams (10 percent) that went into those tourneys ranked outside the top 20 in KenPom advanced to the Final Four.
2022 Sweet 16 Teams Ranked OVERALL outside the Top 20 after the Title Game:
St Peters
Michigan
Providence
Iowa State
Miami FL
2023 Sweet 16 Teams Ranked OVERALL outside the Top 20 after the Title Game:
Arkansas
Kansas State
Michigan State
Princeton
Miami FL--made the Final 4
Also, if a team is rated higher on both offense and defense, then it can expect to beat anyone in any part of the tournament.
Additional info:
KenPom has been around for 21 National Champions. Of the 21 national champions tracked by KenPom:
* 19 of the 21 national champions in the sample (90.5%) finished in the top 20 for both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency.
* The 2 exceptions: The lowest any finished in Offensive Efficiency was 39th (2014 UConn) and the lowest any finished in Defensive Efficiency was 22nd (2021 Baylor).
* 2023 National Champion UConn was #3 in Offensive Efficiency and #7 in Defensive Efficiency. Runner up San Diego State was #75 in Offensive Efficiency and #4 in Defensive Efficiency.
* 2022 National Champion Kansas was #6 in Offensive Efficiency and #17 in Defensive Efficiency. Runner up North Carolina was #18 in Offensive Efficiency and #35 in Defensive Efficiency.
2023 Sweet 16
KemPom Rankings (after title game):
WEST REGION
Off.....Def
..54........17.....Arkansas (#22 team, per KenPom)
....3.........7......UConn(#1 team, per KenPom) -- Advanced to Final 4, beat Miami (FL), beat San Diego St in National Championship Game
.....1........73.....Gonzaga (#8 team, per KenPom)
...21........2.......UCLA (#3 team, per KenPom)
MIDWEST REGION
Off.....Def
...11.........5.....Houston (#2 team, per KenPom)
...6........99.....Miami FL (#24 team, per KenPom) -- Advanced to Final 4, lost to UConn
...8........64.....Xavier (#15 team, per KenPom)
...15........13.....Texas (#5 team, per KenPom)
EAST REGION
Off.....Def
..22.......34.....Florida Atlantic (#17 team, per KenPom) -- Advanced to Final 4, lost to San Diego St
..64.........1......Tennessee (#6 team, per KenPom)
..37........27.....Kansas State (#21 team, per KenPom)
..27........42.....Michigan State (#26 team, per KenPom)
SOUTH REGION
Off.....Def
.20.........3.....Alabama (#4 team, per KenPom)
..75.........4.....San Diego St (#14 team, per KenPom) -- Advanced to Final 4, beat FAU, lost to UConn in National Championship Game
..23.......14.....Creighton (#12 team, per KenPom)
..97......105.....Princeton (#91 team, per KenPom)
.................................................
2022 Sweet 16
KemPom Rankings (after title game):
WEST REGION
Off.....Def
...3........10......Gonzaga (#1 team, per KenPom)
53........11.....Arkansas (#18 team, per KenPom)
42.........1......Texas Tech (#7 team, per KenPom)
...1.......49....Duke (#8 team, per KenPom) -- Advanced to Final 4, losing to UNC
EAST REGION
Off.....Def
..18........35.....North Carolina (#16 team, per KenPom) -- Advanced to Final 4 & Title Game, losing to Kansas
..12.........16.....UCLA (#11 team, per KenPom)
...2........93.....Purdue (#14 team, per KenPom)
231.......25.....St Peters (#102 team, per KenPom)
SOUTH REGION
Off.....Def
...7.........21.....Arizona (#5 team, per KenPom)
..10.........8.....Houston (#2 team, per KenPom)
..21........74.....Michigan (#27 team, per KenPom)
...9........23.....Villanova (#10 team, per KenPom) -- Advanced to Final 4, losing to Kansas
MIDWEST REGION
Off.....Def
...6........17....Kansas (#3 team, per KenPom) -- Advanced to Final 4, winning National Championship
.36.......44....Providence (#32 team, per KenPom)
171.........5....Iowa State (#43 team, per KenPom)
..19......107...Miami FL (#41 team, per KenPom)
Sources:
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