Do I have your scenario right?Eight wins at home, steal two on the road, two in BTT and a dancing we I'll go.
9-6 now
10-6 B1G
2-1 BTT
-------------------------
21-13 overall record
What does everyone think? Will this get us in the Big Dance?
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
Do I have your scenario right?Eight wins at home, steal two on the road, two in BTT and a dancing we I'll go.
So that's 10-4 the rest of the way in the B1G and 2 B1G tournament wins. I guess it would depend on what some of the 10 wins are. As of now we have no quality wins. I think your scenario would put us squarely on the bubble.
actually, 10-6 for the remaining B1G reg season (0-2 now, 16 games to go)
its going to be soon here where games will be "must win"
7 high-rollers now?!Gotta love the high-roller who feels finishing out the season with a 14-2 (or better) run is actually possible.
I don’t think that is going to do it. We have exactly zero quality wins including zero quality road wins. The RPI forecast and it’s just a forecast has 21 wins to get the RPI in the 50’s.
The problem with the BTT is who are you beating in those 2 contests? We may not get the bump needed in 1-2 contests at the end. The committee has likely formed their opinion on who is in and who is out coming into the conference tourney and those final 8... last 4 in, last 4 out are simply making a final claim. Meaning if a last 4 in team is winning 1-2 in their conference tourney also, our 2 wins will not be enough to leap frog them. It would have to be a last 4 in losing in round 1 badly and we are impressive in our 2 wins to get a nod. Keep in mind though their are 6 other teams in that same equation of last 4 in, last 4 out.
The 19 regular season wins you are predicting has an RPI in the upper 70’s. There’s only one of team in Syracuse at 71 that has received an at large bid in the 70s. Their are only 5 teams ever that received a bid in the 60’s.
Therefore you should bank on the MAGIC NUMBER being 4 losses or less from this point forward. That means we have to go 12-4 in the final 16 to get to 21-10 which pushes the RPI into the 50s. We still would likely need 1 BTT win for good measure since our OOC was a disaster and the B1G is the lowest rated power 5/6 conference. Our SOS in the OOC is not good.
Bottom line is 4 losses max before the BTT and we have to go on a huge run. There’s only a handful of quality road win opportunities in the B1G; MSU, Purdue, Minny... maybe Michigan, OSU. Better win some of those while holding serve at home now.
Losing an inexperienced Freshman backup PG Connor is not that big a deal. I think Connor would be pegged for 5 mpg as backup PG and Dailey can make those minutes up.
If we lose Dailey, Bohannon, Moss, or Baer, we are in big trouble.
I'd love to see the Wins on the remaining schedule, that makes people picks 9 or more wins in conference. I'm not saying it isn't possible. But I'd like someone to go down the list and pick the wins.
Michigan
OSU
@Maryland
@Illinois
@Rutgers
Purdue
Wisconsin
@Nebraska
Minnesota
@ PSU
MSU
@OSU
@ Michigan
Indiana
@Minnesota
NW
I agree with you. We can lose no more than 4 of these games (12-4) but this is a tricky schedule. The real question is are we capable of winning half?
Look at the closing 5 with MSU at home but road games at OSU, Michigan and Minny. That’s tough.
The only definite win at home should be Indiana and maybe Wisconsin. The road games are full of tricky teams like IL, Nebby, PSU and Rutgers. You’d like to think we can beat most of them but we are not good enough or consistent enough to assume W’s either. Heck IL beat us twice last season with a lame duck coach.
I honestly think making the NIT is going to be tough but a more realistic goal. The NIT will take likely 9 more wins.
I'd love to see the Wins on the remaining schedule, that makes people picks 9 or more wins in conference. I'm not saying it isn't possible. But I'd like someone to go down the list and pick the wins.
Michigan
OSU
@Maryland
@Illinois
@Rutgers
Purdue
Wisconsin
@Nebraska
Minnesota
@ PSU
MSU
@OSU
@ Michigan
Indiana
@Minnesota W..
NW
If this team wins 5 BIG road games, I'd be ecstatic!W Michigan
W OSU
W @Maryland
W @Illinois
W @Rutgers
L Purdue
W Wisconsin
L @Nebraska
W Minnesota
W @ PSU
L MSU
L @OSU
W @ Michigan
W Indiana
L @Minnesota
W NW
well, i had us beating Michigan tonight, so there goes that! LOLI'd love to see the Wins on the remaining schedule, that makes people picks 9 or more wins in conference. I'm not saying it isn't possible. But I'd like someone to go down the list and pick the wins.
Michigan
OSU
@Maryland
@Illinois
@Rutgers
Purdue
Wisconsin
@Nebraska
Minnesota
@ PSU
MSU
@OSU
@ Michigan
Indiana
@Minnesota
NW
I agree with you. We can lose no more than 4 of these games (12-4) but this is a tricky schedule. The real question is are we capable of winning half?
Look at the closing 5 with MSU at home but road games at OSU, Michigan and Minny. That’s tough.
The only definite win at home should be Indiana and maybe Wisconsin. The road games are full of tricky teams like IL, Nebby, PSU and Rutgers. You’d like to think we can beat most of them but we are not good enough or consistent enough to assume W’s either. Heck IL beat us twice last season with a lame duck coach.
I honestly think making the NIT is going to be tough but a more realistic goal. The NIT will take likely 9 more wins.
This was my hope and guess to get to 18-13, 9-9:
WIN Tues., Jan. 2 Michigan IOWA CITY 6 p.m. ESPN or ESPN2
WIN Thurs., Jan. 4 Ohio State IOWA CITY 6 p.m. ESPNU
Sun., Jan. 7 at Maryland College Park, Md. 7 p.m. FS1
Thurs., Jan. 11 at Illinois Champaign, Ill. 7 p.m. FS1
WIN Wed., Jan. 17 at Rutgers Piscataway, N.J. 6 p.m. BTN
Sat., Jan. 20 Purdue IOWA CITY 11 a.m. ESPN or ESPN2
WIN Tues., Jan. 23 Wisconsin IOWA CITY 6 p.m. ESPN or ESPN2
Sat., Jan. 27 at Nebraska Lincoln, Neb. 7 p.m. BTN
WIN Tues., Jan. 30 Minnesota IOWA CITY 8 p.m. BTN
WIN Sat., Feb. 3 at Penn State University Park, Pa. 5 p.m. or 7 p.m. BTN
Tues., Feb. 6 Michigan State IOWA CITY 8 p.m. ESPN or ESPN2
WIN Sat., Feb. 10 at Ohio State Columbus, Ohio 5 p.m. or 7 p.m. BTN
Wed., Feb. 14 at Michigan Ann Arbor, Mich. 5:30 p.m. BTN
WIN Sat., Feb. 17 Indiana IOWA CITY 1 p.m. ESPN or ESPN2
Wed., Feb. 21 at Minnesota Minneapolis, Minn. 8 p.m. BTN
WIN Sun., Feb. 25 Northwestern IOWA CITY 6:30 p.m. BTN
I went 16-15, 7-11 ...and I'm not feeling good about it at all. They'll probably come up a few games shy.hoooooooooooooze feeling good about their prediction??
me? not so much.
I went 16-15, 7-11 ...and I'm not feeling good about it at all. They'll probably come up a few games shy.
thats Lickliter bad!I would say the current O/U is 13-18, 4-14
yep, Iowa has to go 7-7 the rest of the way to get to your 7-11
shoot, preseason I thought 14-4 was realistic based on our home schedule and who we played once at home and once on the road; i really thought we could dominate the home games and dominate the cupcakes on the road
Sucks that we suck at predictions! LOL
I am. I think they'll squeeze 5 or 6 conference wins out.hoooooooooooooze feeling good about their prediction??
me? not so much.
I am. I think they'll squeeze 5 or 6 conference wins out.
That's what I think. I've been wrong before.that's Lickliter like numbers! ARghhhhhhh
Iowa is the cupcake for much of the rest of the league. I don't see any team as their cupcake.
No kidding. It is crazy we are this bad.i can see that now, but not preseason.
i really wanna know what they did with those extra 10 practices for the European Tour. Maybe they went bowling and to movies instead.
but we will beat Illinois and Rutgers....right? LOLNo kidding. It is crazy we are this bad.
hope so; can you imagine being the last team in the conference to win a conference game?Yes.