One of the doctors on tonight's NBC News Special just said this.
Makes you wonder about the 2020-2021 fall and winter sports.
Makes you wonder about the 2020-2021 fall and winter sports.
"We will see a resurgence of the coronavirus in the fall. We won't have a vaccine for 12-18 months"
- Thread starter Franisdaman
- Start date
I am hoping that we aren't in a shelter-in-place order by then. We haven't considered it yet in lieu of economic impact but by then, it may not matter. We are behind the curve for "first world" countries when it come to dealing with this thing.
I appreciate everyone trying their best but in a few weeks the country is going to realize that a few hundred thousand or million people aren’t worth it. It sucks, but so do all the other ways that people die.
The news briefing today indicated that the current estimate is something like 82,000 deaths by August.....some medical experts are saying this thing will have a number of peaks and valleys over an extended period of time.
You do realize that according to the CDC around 8200 Americans die every single day by some other reason. In this same period that doctors estimate 82,000 deaths from this virus, we will lose about 1 million Americans for something else. The difference is the media is not reporting on those deaths as that is not sexy. Cancer and heart disease will claim about 500,000 in this same time period.
82,000 deaths is two one hundredths of 1% of our US population. Even if the worst case scenario of 2 million in a year is 6/10 of 1%.
Everyone runs around quoting the virus numbers but no one uses any comparison data because it makes an agenda and narrative look silly.
I’m not trying to down play loss of life or the challenges this virus presents but where else in our life would we react and make decisions with these %s based on data? We love our sports and this board goes bonkers over better data than this like Fran making the NCAAs 4 or 5 times in 7 years! Wow that’s 57% of the time or more!
Theres no place for a rational post like this on a message board.
I think the main difference is the fact that this ONE, brand new virus has overwhelmed hospitals around the United States and around the world. Look at the people lying in the hallways of hospitals all because of this ONE virus. Sure, people die every day but not like this, where we have no treatment and not enough ventilators.
This country is not overwhelmed by cancer deaths, heart disease deaths, etc. But we have been overwhelmed with the coronavirus. Look at NYC; they have set up tents with hospital beds in Central Park; it looks like a war zone there. All because of this ONE virus.
When we get it under control, hopefully things can get back to normal.
Well what the hell then, what’s another 82,000 deaths, in the next 5 months? Unless of course it’s someone you know and love...and it was preventable!
Seriously, you’re not trying to downplay the loss of life? I would bet that if a family member of yours falls victim to this you would have a stark realization about your post. I have a friend and his family who have contracted this virus and their reality is a fight for their lives...lives that just a couple of weeks ago weren’t staring the horrible consequences of this thing right in the face.
There is no data in your arguments. All you are hitting on are the many, many mistakes made by business leaders to save bucks and increase their profits; cutting supply, outsourcing, etc. The bill is due now.
The data looked horrific if we did nothing.
The data (and the images from NYC) still look horrific with what we are doing.
What data? How does it compare? No one will lay it out because it does not hold water. So you take a picture as data?
So, to be clear, you want everything to go back to "normal?" Open everything back up? Resume MLB, church gatherings, no limits on gatherings, everybody go back to work?
Yes with the caveat that everyone does so at their own discretion. If you are older in the high risk category and/or have a pre-existing condition then you need to consider distancing and be extra careful. Concessions need to be made by employers. Everyone needs to follow the hand washing, coughing, etc and provide as much distance as possible.
The far more damage is what Is being done than the virus itself. Everyone assumes continual bail out by someone else. The numbers don’t support this.
Ask questions on both sides instead of just accepting words. Does the information provider have any skin in the game? Is there a golden goose benefit that media gets by having a massive news story with the country shut down including sports?
I am not getting political here at all but Donald Trump originally agreed with you. Then he started listening to the doctors and started looking at the data.
Go to apnews.com and read some of the articles. It's a free site. It's pretty clear that by doing nothing we would see millions of deaths instead of 100,000-200,000
Normal deaths don't overwhelm hospitals, their workers, shut down airports, make people stop travel, stop buying, lose their jobs, their business. It's not a hoax
That’s not even a half of 1% of the population. Again no numbers to support this. There’s 330 million Americans!
Check out the CDC stats. The death by accidents is 150k + every year. On average 8200 Americans die every day for other reasons.
This plan could literally lead to over a million death. of course, that’s only like 1/3 of one percent of Americans, so no big deal, right?
Doubling down on a lot of the mistakes we’ve made early on is probably not a good plan.
Getting it under control is probably the only thing that will help. Like it or not. Millions of people having the virus will be worse than shutting stuff down.
To the earlier point about next season. My guess is that there will be competition with no fans. All the participants are tested. Just a guess. This is definitely something with no data.
Never said this is a hoax. The decision making is flawed based on numbers of even the worst model.
How many hospitals are there in the US? How many are overwhelmed? Shortage of ventilators, yes. Who’s fault is that when it was identified by the government 13 years ago and contracts awarded to build up the number which did not happen. Why are we relying on China to make ventilators when the UK is saying they can make 5000 per week at $100 each using a scaled down model? So many questions but no one asks the hard questions on this.
Also, there are times when “listen to both sides” just doesn’t work out.
“This plane is missing a wing, I don’t think we should board.”
“Hey! There are two sides to this story. Pilot says we’re good to go.”
And1, do you have any opinions on the shape of the big object we live on? Lots of theories out there. Everybody should be heard. The most believable to me is a giant Heptahedron. Think about it. Seven continents, and seven sides. Don’t believe those that think it’s a globe, or flat. They’re crazy.
“This plane is missing a wing, I don’t think we should board.”
“Hey! There are two sides to this story. Pilot says we’re good to go.”
And1, do you have any opinions on the shape of the big object we live on? Lots of theories out there. Everybody should be heard. The most believable to me is a giant Heptahedron. Think about it. Seven continents, and seven sides. Don’t believe those that think it’s a globe, or flat. They’re crazy.
We will have a vaccine and/or treatments of some sort ready for next flu season,.. too much money to be made,.. will that save football season?,.. probably not,.. And even if you accept the 12-18 month vaccine timeline as accurate, understand that we have already been working on this for at least 3 months, so at this point we should be looking 9-15 months worst case...
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those patients may not be in hospital hallways but that’s ridiculous. The thing is that you can’t stop a natural occurring superbug but you CAN stop obesity, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, etc much of the time. Yet we continue to let people make decisions that put a huge burden on the health care system.
We know the high risk group and factors for this. I don’t wish loss of life for anyone, myself included but we need to function as a society or we will have far more issues than the virus itself.
If you are posting here you are likely not bankrupt or been made homeless yet by this. When that happens we will see if you’d rather go with this strategy or a better one. When you can’t pay for your next meal you can let us know if you’d rather battle the virus 1 time or have your resources back you may have worked a lifetime for. Then let me know how the less than 1% chance this is fatal looks.
The main problem is your first paragraph. People won't do that. There are way too many selfish people around that won't do that because it is inconvenient to them. That has already been proven over the last 3 weeks and if allowing people to make these decisions on their own in this situation, it will fail. It sucks I know ... I wish it wasn't like that but it is.
There is a tipping point that’s going to come based on the data and the devastation to our society by this strategy if it prolongs. If you have ability to do business as normal for the moment, you may not much longer. Then you’ll see what this strategy vs the numbers looks like.
What if it's you? Or you are lucky and live but your daughter/wife/mother/grandmother/grandfather/father/son were to die from this? Would you still feel the same way?
Behind the curve as in the rate of growth of cases and deaths is increasing at one of the fastest rates, and the US rate is still going up.
Show the numbers, don’t talk about rates since we are starting from recent data tracking.
if you have 1 case and get a second then your rate is what? That’s like going with no sales to some sales and say wow look how much my sales rate improved!
You are right about letting others make stupid mistakes, but that doesn't mean it has to be universally applied. Someone getting fat doesn't infect someone else. It is a personal choice. Stopping the spread of disease is a community choice and responsibility.
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Look at the numbers. We are talking about apples to apples.
Just look at the growth rate in Iowa in the past 2 weeks. We went from <40 to 500 cases, 0 deaths to 7. And that's yesterday's stats...
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A few more things that I think you are disregarding in this particular post as well as others.
The data that supports many of the assertions about what is and will happen come from the top professionals in the world...and the experience in other countries. There are people, scientists who specialize in pandemics etc., who are providing data that government officials are making decisions on.
In another post I have seen it asserted that these other thousands, or hundreds of thousands, of deaths every year happen so we shouldn't let the projected virus deaths deter our normal commerce.
1) Heart disease and cancer doesn't get passed from person to person. They are not infectious/contagious in nature. There is no comparison to this virus.
2) Accidents....we do many many things to try and prevent accidents, to MITIGATE their occurrances and the subsequent damage. Regulations regarding the standards for vehicle safety, laws and signs and training of drivers, licensing of drivers, restricting some people from driving.....OSHA for work related accidents, built in safety aspects for equipment..etc. etc....the list is endless.
We work to mitigate and reduce deaths in many many many areas, why wouldn't we do that here?
The only thing I can surmise from your statements are the economics. The economics are important no doubt...but not above human life. I have worked my whole life to get where I am at finacially in my 60's.....I absolutely don't want to lose it...and this situation puts that all at risk. But I would rather be poor than dead...
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Yes. My dad is 70 and still going to work because it’s an essential job. My mom is retired, but my dads had a heart attack and they’ve both had cancer.
I am not naive enough to think that we can stop this any different than we can stop any other seasonal bug. It sucks, but that’s the hand we were dealt. Life isn’t always perfect.
Fat may not be contagious but lifestyle decisions most certainly affect everyone. How much of our healthcare system is focused on treating people with self inflicted issues?
So the doctors and scientists who have studied this (pandemics) for decades and have identified the practices for mitigation based on facts and real world incidents aren't sufficient to help you think we can stop this? What about the other countries that have had success?
