Weird year coming up?

[Sett1997]

This feels like one of the years when we excel and we aren't supposed to .
Losing several studs to the draft, seems like when we are supposed to be good we have a let down .
Anyone else feeling it?

 

[Harbinger273]

Hard to read this year. We lost some very solid key pieces from last year. The DL, Hooker and our TE's make up a productive and high quality contingent that does not replace at the snap of fingers. We have returning talent, but they will need to progress and play well as a unit to succeed. Hope they do just that.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Hard to read this year. We lost some very solid key pieces from last year. The DL, Hooker and our TE's make up a productive and high quality contingent that does not replace at the snap of fingers. We have returning talent, but they will need to progress and play well as a unit to succeed. Hope they do just that.

If Iowa even comes close to winning 10 games this year, Kirk deserves COTY.

 

[katman15]

This feels like one of the years when we excel and we aren't supposed to .
Losing several studs to the draft, seems like when we are supposed to be good we have a let down .
Anyone else feeling it?

Schedule isn't cooperating...That 5 game stretch is tough. Michigan,Penn State, Purdue,Northwestern,Wisconsin....Ouch.

 

[DewHawk]

Personally, I have found it better to have very modest expectations for the Iowa football program any year.

 

[thecarls]

I think we win 6 or 7. It’s iowa so we could also win 12 but I’m saying 7-5

 

[dadster]

This is another year of Iowa football under Kirk. After 20 years I have finally accepted what that means which is an occasional great win, some frustrating inexplicable losses and a final record with about 8 wins. We have some promising talent and a couple players will step up and surprise us. I don't see Nate playing any different from the last several years which takes us back to more of the same.

 

[Johnsoda123]

This is another year of Iowa football under Kirk. After 20 years I have finally accepted what that means which is an occasional great win, some frustrating inexplicable losses and a final record with about 8 wins. We have some promising talent and a couple players will step up and surprise us. I don't see Nate playing any different from the last several years which takes us back to more of the same.

There have been some changes with Ferentz over the last four years. More true freshman are playing. Going for it more on fourth down, or it seems like it. Grad transfers and CC guys. I expect Stanley to be better this year in all phases. I'll be extremely disappointed if a third year starting QB doesn't take over this team and win a lot of games.

 

[mvhomerj]

I think we win 6 or 7. It’s iowa so we could also win 12 but I’m saying 7-5

You beat me to 7-5.

 

[HungryHawk]

It all falls on the offense IMO. We lost a ton of production there and that is much harder for us to replace than defense. I don’t think our D will be quite as good as last year, but last year was better than most realize, at least statistically. A slight dip won’t kill the season, but we need several guys to step up on offense in a big way if we want to compete for the west.

 

[87alum87]

The offense will be very comparable to last year in quality. The tight ends will be greatly missed, but I think the Smiths both take a step up, and Tracy gives a few more big plays than Easley, if not the reliable security blanket. Running back will be greatly improved, if only by having a solid Sargent in place from the start of the year. The tight ends will block, and occasionally break a big play. A consistent and injury-free Stanley is the biggest key.

And, the defense will likely be substantially better. Teams will need to scheme specifically against those DE's, comparable to teams being forced to scheme against the TE's last year. Double teams will take resources from the opposing offenses and leave the tackles and linebackers to make plays, There will be few big plays around either edge, or on long developing pass plays.

Losing Hooker will be the biggest hit on the defense, but I think OJ does have the physicality and cover skills for the CASH. Brents and Hankins on the outside may be the best tandem of island-quality cover corners in the KF era. Iowa has almost always had one elite cover guy, but seldom two on the field simultaneously.

And Special Teams will be improved. Punting consistently. A feared kick-off returner. Recinos will be a tough replace, but at least Duncan has hit big kicks.

Overall...it will be an improved team. I hate to think how it good it might have been if the Juniors had all stayed.

 

[Hawk94Mn]

I’ll say 9 wins. It’s tough to project a good year with how much we’ve lost but there are a lot of talented and experienced players on the roster. I think the defense will be very good and the offense will be around the same. I think the ball bounced in favor of the opposition last year, hopefully we can have a little luck this year. Hell every win last year was a blow out except ISU and MSU.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

The offense will be very comparable to last year in quality. The tight ends will be greatly missed, but I think the Smiths both take a step up, and Tracy gives a few more big plays than Easley, if not the reliable security blanket. Running back will be greatly improved, if only by having a solid Sargent in place from the start of the year. The tight ends will block, and occasionally break a big play. A consistent and injury-free Stanley is the biggest key.

And, the defense will likely be substantially better. Teams will need to scheme specifically against those DE's, comparable to teams being forced to scheme against the TE's last year. Double teams will take resources from the opposing offenses and leave the tackles and linebackers to make plays, There will be few big plays around either edge, or on long developing pass plays.

Losing Hooker will be the biggest hit on the defense, but I think OJ does have the physicality and cover skills for the CASH. Brents and Hankins on the outside may be the best tandem of island-quality cover corners in the KF era. Iowa has almost always had one elite cover guy, but seldom two on the field simultaneously.

And Special Teams will be improved. Punting consistently. A feared kick-off returner. Recinos will be a tough replace, but at least Duncan has hit big kicks.

Overall...it will be an improved team. I hate to think how it good it might have been if the Juniors had all stayed.

Had the JRs stuck around ... I was having the '19 D pegged as a best-ever Ferentz era unit.

However, having Anthony leave was a significant blow to the depth and production of the DL. And losing Hooker was obviously a huge loss in terms of the versatility and leadership that he brought to the table.

I still expect the D to be a strong unit ... but the group will likely now be far more susceptible to adversity ... and that is typically the difference between a good team and a great one.

 

[hawkfeever]

Schedule isn't cooperating...That 5 game stretch is tough. Michigan,Penn State, Purdue,Northwestern,Wisconsin....Ouch.

Penn State will be down. Ripe for the picking there.

 

[Slappy Pappy]

Losing Hooker will be the biggest hit on the defense, but I think OJ does have the physicality and cover skills for the CASH. Brents and Hankins on the outside may be the best tandem of island-quality cover corners in the KF era. Iowa has almost always had one elite cover guy, but seldom two on the field simultaneously.

Des King and Greg Mabin are both on active NFL rosters. Let's hope Brents and Hankins do as well!

 

[Auger]

Usually the weird years happen when our B1G competition isn't very good. Like the Rose Bowl year. B1G was weak that year. I think Wisconsin, Nebraska, Purdue and Northwestern will be pretty solid next year. Even Minnesota will be a game. I could see Iowa with 8 wins with that being a solid season. Right now KF needs to get over the Wisconson, Purdue and Northwestern hump all while keeping a watchful eye on an improving Nebraska.

 

[Auger]

Additionally out Offense could be taking a step back and our Defense right now doesnt have an elite B1G unite like the DL was last year. The D could be solid overall though.

 

[Frosty7130]

One key thing we'll gain from last year is the experience of failure.

We found multiple ways to lose tight games to good(ish) teams the last two seasons. While it was quite the kick in the nuts at the time, this team knows what it takes to win a dogfight now, and it showed against Nebby and Miss. State. That experience and desire to finish games is going to show up, and hopefully propel us to a few more wins.

 

[icwesthawk]

This is Iowa football right? Aren't they all kind of weird?

 

[Frosty7130]

Usually the weird years happen when our B1G competition isn't very good. Like the Rose Bowl year. B1G was weak that year. I think Wisconsin, Nebraska, Purdue and Northwestern will be pretty solid next year. Even Minnesota will be a game. I could see Iowa with 8 wins with that being a solid season. Right now KF needs to get over the Wisconson, Purdue and Northwestern hump all while keeping a watchful eye on an improving Nebraska.

Actually 2015 is an outlier. Our worst years usually happen against weak schedules, whereas most of KF's success comes against great schedules.

The '02-'04 stretch was all against top 10 SOS, and '08 and '09 were in the top 25 SOS, facing some pretty salty teams during the height of the Big Ten in the 2000's. Kind of odd in retrospect that we would run roughshod over our biggest tests and then fall flat against the bottom feeders.

 

[Messy58]

10-2 Loses to MI and NE

 

[NevadaHawk]

With the upgrade in this year's schedule we could be better but the record might indicate otherwise. For this year to be a success, we have to beat wiscy and NW and hold serve against ISU, NE and Purdue. Do that and I think 9-3 is possible. We probably have a better than even shot against PSU. Can't wait for the 2019 season to start!

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Brents and Hankins on the outside may be the best tandem of island-quality cover corners in the KF era. Iowa has almost always had one elite cover guy, but seldom two on the field simultaneously.

I'd say that it would be hard to beat the duo of Spievey and Prater in terms of pure cover skills.

 

[mikesright]

Should be very interesting how we play out next year as there is more variance than normal in how we could finish based on our roster and the competitive landscape. I think its going to boil down to how our offensive and defensive lines can run/stop the run. And we have potential to be great in each category.

On OL, how quickly can Linderbaum, Kallenberger, and Miller get to speed and contribute at an all-big ten type level? Can Wirfs and Jackson get to a surefire first round nasty finisher description? For DL its all about DT. Is Nixon going to develop into something like Sagapolu was for Wisconsin? How much quality depth can we generate there?

Last year we were good enough to go undefeated if we had been able to put any semblance of a consistent run game together. Hopefully with the maturing pieces we have together with the highly rated newcomers, we can get one of our better lines at OL in our history out there in ‘19-‘20.

 

[Hawk94Mn]

Should be very interesting how we play out next year as there is more variance than normal in how we could finish based on our roster and the competitive landscape. I think its going to boil down to how our offensive and defensive lines can run/stop the run. And we have potential to be great in each category.

On OL, how quickly can Linderbaum, Kallenberger, and Miller get to speed and contribute at an all-big ten type level? Can Wirfs and Jackson get to a surefire first round nasty finisher description? For DL its all about DT. Is Nixon going to develop into something like Sagapolu was for Wisconsin? How much quality depth can we generate there?

Last year we were good enough to go undefeated if we had been able to put any semblance of a consistent run game together. Hopefully with the maturing pieces we have together with the highly rated newcomers, we can get one of our better lines at OL in our history out there in ‘19-‘20.

A run game with the 2019 defense could be very dangerous. Hopefully we can take some weight off Stanley’s shoulders and let him make timely plays.

I really hope Beyer is productive at TE. It will draw attention a way from our two best playmakers in Smith and ISM. They weren’t relied upon heavily last year with the talent we had at TE, but i do think they have the capacity to make big plays. An above average offense probably wins 9 games this year. I think Goodson plays and adds something different to our team too.

 

[Hawk_4shur]

It seems like the difference between 7 wins and 10 is razor thin. There are always a few games that come down to a handful of plays.

 

[Eternal Return]

I don't see Nate playing any different from the last several years which takes us back to more of the same.

I could see Nate taking a step back this year because he lost his 3 best receiving options: Hock, Fant, and Easley. I'm not convinced that ISM, Smith, and whoever else can come close to replacing the receiving talent Iowa just lost. Iowa's going to need a strong run game this year and that means Iowa needs an exceptional OL.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

I could see Nate taking a step back this year because he lost his 3 best receiving options: Hock, Fant, and Easley. I'm not convinced that ISM, Smith, and whoever else can come close to replacing the receiving talent Iowa just lost. Iowa's going to need a strong run game this year and that means Iowa needs an exceptional OL.

Nate had a lot more responsibility dropped on him going from the '17 season to the '18 season ... and while he still has some ups-and-downs ... overall, he seemed to make some strides throughout the season.

Last season saw us still being a bit young at WR (seeing that Smith and ISM were still just SOs) and we were exceedingly green at RB. Furthermore, Brady Ross was a pretty new starter at FB..

I'm inclined to believe that the OL ought to be even better in '19 than it was in '18 (and the '18 group was quite good at protecting the QB) ... and the RBs likely will be improved too. Assuming this leads to improvements in the running game ... this also ought to be complemented by improvements by Smith and ISM. The remaining question mark will be at TE ... but we have personnel there who have been in the system several years now ... and Brian is coaching them ... so he obviously will know how to incorporate them properly into the O. Combining all that with Nate being the trigger-man ... I'm inclined to believe that the O will have the opportunity to be a decent group.

I will agree that Nate's TD numbers might not be as high given that he no longer has 1st round TEs to pass the ball too ... and that could impact our red-zone passing numbers ... but our red-zone rushing numbers might improve to compensate.

It will be an interesting season to see how things turn out ...

 

[H4wkfan4life]

2 years ago I thought this was gonna be a great season, not so much anymore.

I'd guess a mediocre 6-7 win season right now. Need Nate and basically the entire O to step it up a notch or they might struggle just to hit .500

 

[Whos Your Bulldog]

Historically, when the hawks have a returning starter at qb reach their senior season they tend to underachieve. Let's hope this year is different.

 

[chuck285]

I think we win 6 or 7. It’s iowa so we could also win 12 but I’m saying 7-5

This board will go crazy if we only win 6 or 7 games. Fire the coach and athletic director will be headlines for months...

 

[Harbinger273]

This board will go crazy if we only win 6 or 7 games. Fire the coach and athletic director will be headlines for months...

The meltdown will be epic if things go awry this season. It'll be Chernoby×10.

 

[CanadaHawk]

The defense developed depth through injuries in the secondary and LB last year. Excellent DEs, just stay healthy. But to really move forward, this D needs a run-stuffer (most likely candidate is Nixon) to emerge.

The O is likely better everywhere through experience and additions, except TE. But even if Beyer, et al, help cushion the production losses, the playmaker losses are greater. Who will the next big playmaker(s) be on offense? What cream will rise to the surface? ISM?, B Smith?, Tracey?, IKM?, Goodson? Silly to think they’ll have the star power of 2 first round TEs. But if a WR and a RB (different positions) show some real progress, could they be as effective as 2 TEs in a more experienced offense otherwise?

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

The defense developed depth through injuries in the secondary and LB last year. Excellent DEs, just stay healthy. But to really move forward, this D needs a run-stuffer (most likely candidate is Nixon) to emerge.

I fail to see why the Hawks would need a traditional "run-stuffer." Look at our run D in '18 ... it was one of our better years statistically ... giving up just 3.3 ypc. We didn't have a traditional run stuffer then either. Other years where the D has been that good or better were 2010 (3.2 ypc), 2008 (3.1 ypc), 2007 (3.2 ypc), 2005 (3.2 ypc), 2004 (2.8 ypc), 2003 (2.5 ypc), 2002 (2.6 ypc), and 2001 (3.2 ypc). In those years good run-D years, we only had a run-stuffer in maybe '01 and '02.

Otherwise, we rely on guys playing great, disciplined team ball. Furthermore, our most productive DTs are typically guys who manage to BOTH keep the LBs pretty clean, while also getting penetration into the backfield.

 

[ICTrojans99]

Had the JRs stuck around ... I was having the '19 D pegged as a best-ever Ferentz era unit.

However, having Anthony leave was a significant blow to the depth and production of the DL. And losing Hooker was obviously a huge loss in terms of the versatility and leadership that he brought to the table.

I still expect the D to be a strong unit ... but the group will likely now be far more susceptible to adversity ... and that is typically the difference between a good team and a great one.

If everybody but Fant came back we were looking at an 02,09,15 type of season. 8-4 if were lucky

 

[biggreydogs]

I think we win 6 or 7. It’s iowa so we could also win 12 but I’m saying 7-5

Rinse repeat

 

[CanadaHawk]

I fail to see why the Hawks would need a traditional "run-stuffer." Look at our run D in '18 ... it was one of our better years statistically ... giving up just 3.3 ypc. We didn't have a traditional run stuffer then either. Other years where the D has been that good or better were 2010 (3.2 ypc), 2008 (3.1 ypc), 2007 (3.2 ypc), 2005 (3.2 ypc), 2004 (2.8 ypc), 2003 (2.5 ypc), 2002 (2.6 ypc), and 2001 (3.2 ypc). In those years good run-D years, we only had a run-stuffer in maybe '01 and '02.

Otherwise, we rely on guys playing great, disciplined team ball. Furthermore, our most productive DTs are typically guys who manage to BOTH keep the LBs pretty clean, while also getting penetration into the backfield.

I’d argue Iowa leaned greatly on DE depth on the DL. As the season went on, teams started figuring that out. The run of 3 losses yielded +100 yd rushing games to opponents. That didn’t get better the last 3 games. In fact, it got worse. That DE depth won’t be near as good. So, the middle of the line needs to produce a star player to maintain production of the DL.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

I’d argue Iowa leaned greatly on DE depth on the DL. As the season went on, teams started figuring that out. The run of 3 losses yielded +100 yd rushing games to opponents. That didn’t get better the last 3 games. In fact, it got worse. That DE depth won’t be near as good. So, the middle of the line needs to produce a star player to maintain production of the DL.

One place where we got hit against Penn State was when Anthony Nelson lost contain when he was in for Parker at RDE. McSorely doesn't make that long run if we don't lose contain on that play.

I agree that our strength in '18 were our DEs ... but part of the heart of our DL in '08 were King and Kroul ... as 4th year starters ... despite not being traditional run-stuffers .... opposing O-linemen had A LOT of trouble moving those guys. Experience and great technique can go A LONG ways!

We had mediocre depth at DT in '04 ... and neither Babs nor Luebke were traditional run-stuffers .... but, all the same, our DT play was a team strength and those guys were awfully productive.

The question for the the '19 DL will be whether the coaches can find enough depth in order to keep Golston and Epenesa fresh. Furthermore, both of those DEs are going to get A TON of reps in '19 .... so just as Bell has discussed ... are those two going to be ready to be every-down players? Will they have the stamina to hold up?

Lattimore and Reiff have some decent talent between them ... how will they fare as the top guys at DT? How will they fare as every-down players? How much will Nixon, Shannon, and Schulte be able to contribute?

 

[CanadaHawk]

One place where we got hit against Penn State was when Anthony Nelson lost contain when he was in for Parker at RDE. McSorely doesn't make that long run if we don't lose contain on that play.

I agree that our strength in '18 were our DEs ... but part of the heart of our DL in '08 were King and Kroul ... as 4th year starters ... despite not being traditional run-stuffers .... opposing O-linemen had A LOT of trouble moving those guys. Experience and great technique can go A LONG ways!

We had mediocre depth at DT in '04 ... and neither Babs nor Luebke were traditional run-stuffers .... but, all the same, our DT play was a team strength and those guys were awfully productive.

The question for the the '19 DL will be whether the coaches can find enough depth in order to keep Golston and Epenesa fresh. Furthermore, both of those DEs are going to get A TON of reps in '19 .... so just as Bell has discussed ... are those two going to be ready to be every-down players? Will they have the stamina to hold up?

Lattimore and Reiff have some decent talent between them ... how will they fare as the top guys at DT? How will they fare as every-down players? How much will Nixon, Shannon, and Schulte be able to contribute?

Christian Ballard.
Carl Davis.
Jaleel Johnson.
Daviyon Nixon?

 

[Eternal Return]

I'm inclined to believe that the OL ought to be even better in '19 than it was in '18 (and the '18 group was quite good at protecting the QB) ... and the RBs likely will be improved too. Assuming this leads to improvements in the running game ... this also ought to be complemented by improvements by Smith and ISM.

Excellent points. That's kind of what I'm hoping to see, too. I hope we don't have to rely on Stanley and the passing game to win most games. If the O-line can play up to its potential it could all be a moot point. I am hoping that the freshman RB coming in turns out to be a stud because I think the three RBs Iowa's been using are a bit pedestrian--solid, but none are the type of guys who can carry an offense and even using all three doesn't seem to highlight their abilities (or if does they aren't even as good as I think they are, which is not great). We shall see. And hopefully that strong OL gives Stanl;ey time to throw because he isn't the quickest at pulling the trigger.