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5/21 Severe Weather

Colonoscopy

HR Legend
Feb 20, 2022
11,885
12,777
113
51
Saint Louis, Mo
Looks like another potent event for the upper midwest. Centered on Iowa, roughly Omaha to the Quad Cities; KC to Madison. Looks to be more on the big wind event end of things, but early storms could certainly be supercellular and produce tornadoes. Shear profiles seem too linear for a big tornado event, but it certainly bears watching as the upper midwest will see widespread dewpoints near or above 70 and the storm system is rather potent.

 
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Also: something you don't see everyday. A PDS watch for Kansas based on high winds. (derecho potential)

 
Also: something you don't see everyday. A PDS watch for Kansas based on high winds. (derecho potential)


I saw that just now.

I honestly can't remember a time where derechos were actually being mentioned in forecasts like this system has. Hell, I began seeing them mentioned on Friday by the YT guys.

Going to be an interesting 48ish hours in the midwest. Our turn seems to be Tuesday afternoon, they've been talking about that being likely for a full week now.
 
I saw that just now.

I honestly can't remember a time where derechos were actually being mentioned in forecasts like this system has. Hell, I began seeing them mentioned on Friday by the YT guys.

Going to be an interesting 48ish hours in the midwest. Our turn seems to be Tuesday afternoon, they've been talking about that being likely for a full week now.
Ever since 2020 the word derecho frightens me more than the word tornado
 
SPC went 10% hatched on tornadoes across Iowa. Strong wind sheer with this system. They're thinking supercells to begin with quick up growth into QLCS possible.
 
SPC went 10% hatched on tornadoes across Iowa. Strong wind sheer with this system. They're thinking supercells to begin with quick up growth into QLCS possible.
Can I get a translation on this?

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Hopefully there is a weather bubble around Ames. We're here today and tomorrow for state golf.
 
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We took a pretty good shot here in KC last night around 10 pm. 60 mph winds has a lot of trees down around town. We have a bunch of branches down, but still have power at least. Sounds like the big show here is tomorrow.
 
Looking like the main show kicks off in Western IA around 2-4pm and pushes off east pretty quick, impacting eastern Iowa in the early evening hours. Big question is whether or not cells can remain discrete (better for tornadoes) or if we'll see relatively quick upgrowth into a line where damaging wind is a bigger risk.

My guess is that by the time things roll into the eastern half of the state we'll be looking at more of a linear wind threat. But I've been wrong before.

Either way, watch this one close.
 
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SPC just upped tornado probs to 15% hatched. Bump it up anymore and it goes to high risk.

Seem to think we're going to see a line form in the later afternoon with areas of embedded rotation that could still produce strong tornadoes. That's what the eastern half of Iowa may be under the gun for.

Before that, in western Iowa, we may see more isolated tornado producers.

They seem to think we won't have a problem clearing out the morning convection in time for the big stuff in the afternoon. But something to watch.
 
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I sure's hell hope things don't fire during the afternoon school bus trips home.

Wouldn't surprise me at all we see some districts release a couple hours early today...
 
I sure's hell hope things don't fire during the afternoon school bus trips home.

Wouldn't surprise me at all we see some districts release a couple hours early today...
My kids school district sent an email yesterday about the potential storms.
 
My kids school district sent an email yesterday about the potential storms.

Yeah... one thing I've noticed through the years is districts tend to get early word from the NWS if they're certain things will get bad in the afternoon...winter snow or spring storms.

We'll probably begin seeing them make the call around 10-11 AM if things are going to get nasty.
 
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I took the afternoon off yesterday to clean up from the F1 tornado that went through our neighborhood Sunday night. With 110 mph winds, I'm pretty surprised there wasn't more damage although there were at least eight houses on my street that had huge oak trees down. Sounds like our deal today is from 2:00 to 7:00 pm. Here is to hoping Mother Nature is off the rag.
 
I'm kinda thinking Iowa's Tornado Alley (Parkersburg/Charles City/Oelwein) might be where the big time action is this afternoon/early evening. That general neighborhood so to speak.

There's going to be a squall line for sure no matter what...
 
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****ed. This has derecho 2.0 written all over it
Point of correction, we had derecho 2.0 in December of 2021. This would be derecho 3.0.

December 15, 2021 was an unprecedented and historic event for the state of Iowa. It featured the first derecho in December anywhere in the United States and the first Moderate Risk (Level 4 or 5) of severe thunderstorms issued by the NWS Storm Prediction Center in December in Iowa. Officially, it set the new record for most tornadoes in Iowa and the most EF-2/F-2 or stronger tornadoes in a single day in Iowa since 1950. Finally, it will break the all-time December record high temperature for Iowa.

The main feature was a powerful low pressure that rapidly moved from the Colorado Rockies into Siouxland and eventually over western Lake Superior on December 15, 2021. Gusty, environmental winds preceded a line of severe thunderstorms, which produced numerous tornadoes and thunderstorm wind gusts across the state and region. There were 63 confirmed tornadoes that occurred in Iowa with 21 of those tornadoes being rated EF-2. Sixty three is officially the most tornadoes in Iowa in a single day with the previous being 35 tornadoes on August 31, 2014 (2014 Iowa Tornadoes | Journal Article). Further, 21 EF-2 tornadoes is officially the most EF-2/F-2 or stronger tornadoes in a single day with the previous being 16 tornadoes on June 7, 1984 (Tornado Tracks | NOAA Technical Memo). Prior to this event, a total of 5 tornadoes had occurred in Iowa in December since 1950 with all of them in southeastern Iowa. To have over 10 times that many tornadoes in a single day is unprecedented in any month, let alone the month of December!

Numerous straight line wind gusts were also associated with these thunderstorms, some in excess of 80 mph. During the event, nearly the entire state of Iowa was under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning at some point. Audubon reported the highest gust in Iowa at 88 mph. This storm also met the criteria for a “derecho'', which makes it the first derecho on record in the month of December anywhere in the United States. Finally, we had an unofficial gust of 108 mph recorded by a mesonet station near Sheffield, Iowa associated with one of the tornadic circulations.

After the line of storms had passed, numerous strong, non-thunderstorm wind gusts over 70 mph occurred overnight. The top three non-thunderstorm wind gusts were 83 mph in Decatur City, 81 mph in Marshalltown, and 80 mph in Johnston. The Des Moines International Airport recorded a 74 mph non-thunderstorm wind gust, which is the highest non-thunderstorm wind gust at this location since 1970.

In addition to the severe weather and strong non-thunderstorm winds, the temperatures were remarkable and record setting. Numerous record daily highs were broken by many degrees. In addition and preliminarily, the all-time December record high temperature for Iowa of 74 degrees that was set in Thurman, IA on December 6, 1939 was broken with four sites reaching 75 degrees (Oskaloosa, Muscatine, Iowa City, and Ottumwa).

OIP.3dQ5EWp-EmJd5UEy6KQAJgHaHa
 
Point of correction, we had derecho 2.0 in December of 2021. This would be derecho 3.0.

December 15, 2021 was an unprecedented and historic event for the state of Iowa. It featured the first derecho in December anywhere in the United States and the first Moderate Risk (Level 4 or 5) of severe thunderstorms issued by the NWS Storm Prediction Center in December in Iowa. Officially, it set the new record for most tornadoes in Iowa and the most EF-2/F-2 or stronger tornadoes in a single day in Iowa since 1950. Finally, it will break the all-time December record high temperature for Iowa.

The main feature was a powerful low pressure that rapidly moved from the Colorado Rockies into Siouxland and eventually over western Lake Superior on December 15, 2021. Gusty, environmental winds preceded a line of severe thunderstorms, which produced numerous tornadoes and thunderstorm wind gusts across the state and region. There were 63 confirmed tornadoes that occurred in Iowa with 21 of those tornadoes being rated EF-2. Sixty three is officially the most tornadoes in Iowa in a single day with the previous being 35 tornadoes on August 31, 2014 (2014 Iowa Tornadoes | Journal Article). Further, 21 EF-2 tornadoes is officially the most EF-2/F-2 or stronger tornadoes in a single day with the previous being 16 tornadoes on June 7, 1984 (Tornado Tracks | NOAA Technical Memo). Prior to this event, a total of 5 tornadoes had occurred in Iowa in December since 1950 with all of them in southeastern Iowa. To have over 10 times that many tornadoes in a single day is unprecedented in any month, let alone the month of December!

Numerous straight line wind gusts were also associated with these thunderstorms, some in excess of 80 mph. During the event, nearly the entire state of Iowa was under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning at some point. Audubon reported the highest gust in Iowa at 88 mph. This storm also met the criteria for a “derecho'', which makes it the first derecho on record in the month of December anywhere in the United States. Finally, we had an unofficial gust of 108 mph recorded by a mesonet station near Sheffield, Iowa associated with one of the tornadic circulations.

After the line of storms had passed, numerous strong, non-thunderstorm wind gusts over 70 mph occurred overnight. The top three non-thunderstorm wind gusts were 83 mph in Decatur City, 81 mph in Marshalltown, and 80 mph in Johnston. The Des Moines International Airport recorded a 74 mph non-thunderstorm wind gust, which is the highest non-thunderstorm wind gust at this location since 1970.

In addition to the severe weather and strong non-thunderstorm winds, the temperatures were remarkable and record setting. Numerous record daily highs were broken by many degrees. In addition and preliminarily, the all-time December record high temperature for Iowa of 74 degrees that was set in Thurman, IA on December 6, 1939 was broken with four sites reaching 75 degrees (Oskaloosa, Muscatine, Iowa City, and Ottumwa).

OIP.3dQ5EWp-EmJd5UEy6KQAJgHaHa
True true
 
So you think that meth haven is doing just fine the way it is?
Listen, guy who thinks he knows all, the BS is Mark's M.O. If he's not saying B.S. or $33 trillion, he's saying white guys make better cornerbacks than black guys. But go ahead and interject some more.
 
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Cedar Falls took a nice little hit last night. Our neighborhood didn't have much damage, but when I drove to the gym this morning, several roads were closed due to large branches down in the middle of the road. Also saw a very large branch/part of tree down on an SUV in someone's driveway. The McLovin Casa got lucky.
 
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