California ER Doctors Corona Virus Briefing is Jaw Dropping

[strummingram]

Normally, no. It's reviewed by FDA and requires independent studies.

In this case, FDA has allowed 'self-verification' for these kits to be released. Basically with a 'buyer beware' sticker on them.

How the USA wound up with the Dept of FUBAR and SNAFU in the most vital emergency medical treatment services is a travesty.

Tests that deliver false-positives? Compiled data and models from them that must be reanalyzed, of course. And, somehow, throughout this entire process, we are expected to believe that when procedures are in place, that they're reliable. Forgive me if I don't automatically have a sense of safety from these sources, by default.

 

[SoMplsHawkI]

I highly doubt two ER doctors would hold a public press conference -broadcast on the news-and "make things up"

Dear Leader does it every day.

 

[Joes Place]

 

[Joes Place]

How the USA wound up with the Dept of FUBAR and SNAFU in the most vital emergency medical treatment services is a travesty.

Tests that deliver false-positives?

ALL serology tests have false-negatives and false positives. Few, if any, are ever 100% accurate.

There are ways around this, by using multiple tests which all much give the same answer to be considered a true infection, or retesting with the same kit (less reliable).

It does not appear that any of these studies have utilized "multiple kits" with similar specificity to sort that out. Because they are trying to do things "fast", not "accurately".

 

[grayhair81]

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How many of those were in the military, Karl? And how many of them were healthy people in the prime of their lives? And how many are going to die if we leave our economy shut down another month? I am sure you can find a graph to show it. Your bot skills are slipping.

 

[haw-key]

Joe the only statistic I give a crap about are deaths. That’s all. I’ve said it a million times.

You can sit and spend all day jerking of to case numbers. Sure, every new case has spread potential, but if the actual numbers of deaths as a percentage of population aren’t high let’s open up and monitor deaths and then make adjustments. This idea that the rebound will be worse I just don’t subscribe to.

Why are you so invested in perpetuating the negativity? Are you old and scared to die? I’ve asked your age in the past and you’ve been suspiciously quiet.....boomer pussy. Youre a disgrace.

 

[grayhair81]

Joe the only statistic I give a crap about are deaths. That’s all. I’ve said it a million times.

You can sit and spend all day jerking of to case numbers. Sure, every new case has spread potential, but if the actual numbers of deaths as a percentage of population aren’t high let’s open up and monitor deaths and then make adjustments. This idea that the rebound will be worse I just don’t subscribe to.

Why are you so invested in perpetuating the negativity? Are you old and scared to die? I’ve asked your age in the past and you’ve been suspiciously quiet.....boomer pussy. Youre a disgrace.

Karl gets paid to proliferate end-of-times scenarios. The people who pay him want a world where everyone is dependent upon the government for their daily existence, thereby keeping the government leaders on a perpetual gravy train.

 

[Joes Place]

Joe the only statistic I give a crap about are deaths.

 

[haw-key]

Karl gets paid to proliferate end-of-times scenarios. The people who pay him want a world where everyone is dependent upon the government for their daily existence, thereby keeping the government leaders on a perpetual gravy train.

100x this.

 

[Joes Place]

Joe the only statistic I give a crap about are deaths.

Current mortality rate calculation, using deaths today divided by cases 4 days ago (this assumes an overall average delay of 4 days from presentation or diagnosis to death, which is reasonable) yields a 5-6% mortality. It's been sitting at that 5-6% level for a full month now.

If you assume a LONGER delay of detection to death, that rate climbs higher, because the case counts 1 week ago were much smaller.

Now, we KNOW we are underestimating infection rates. Maybe by 2x-4x. That still puts you well above 1% mortality, and possibly into 2%

The Diamond Princess mortality rate is nearly 2% in that small sample size, with 4 cases still listed as critical - 3 months later.

 

[Joes Place]

100x this.

You were so horribly off on your case and mortality numbers in March.
I was right. I also made the projection in early April that we'd cross 60,000 deaths by the end of the month - back when IMHE was claiming deaths were going to decline rapidly.

It looks like we're likely to hit 65k or more by May 1.

Who knows what they are talking about here, and who is simply blowing smoke out their ass? You need me to repost your earlier nonsense: ("we won't see 2000 deaths from this", "we won't be Italy"). We are MORE THAN 2x worse than Italy now.

 

[haw-key]

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Oh my god you’re right! The numbers are going up! Well call me dipped in shit.

50k deaths out of a population of 300 million. That’s 0.01%. That’s an annual flu death total. Maybe we need to shut down the economy from October to April every year......

 

[IamHawkeye]

Hmmm, the leading physician group in Florida wants to open up.

Yet a Fla dr talked last night about the perils of being a dr. during this pandemic. (Are the drs. who want to open up surgeons, of course they want to "open up".)

 

[strummingram]

ALL serology tests have false-negatives and false positives. Few, if any, are ever 100% accurate.

There are ways around this, by using multiple tests which all much give the same answer to be considered a true infection, or retesting with the same kit (less reliable).

It does not appear that any of these studies have utilized "multiple kits" with similar specificity to sort that out. Because they are trying to do things "fast", not "accurately".

Since you have all of this figured out... why the hell have you been relegated to a sports message board? Shouldn't you be in the trenches of this whole crisis? You need to be at Ground Zero somewhere, cuz sorting out the screw-ups on here is resulting in our medical institutions going around their assholes to get to their thumbs... only to have to do it again, six different peer-reviewed ways to get it right... with a percentage of inaccuracy, of course.

 

[grayhair81]

Current mortality rate calculation, using deaths today divided by cases 4 days ago (this assumes an overall average delay of 4 days from presentation or diagnosis to death, which is reasonable) yields a 5-6% mortality. It's been sitting at that 5-6% level for a full month now.

If you assume a LONGER delay of detection to death, that rate climbs higher, because the case counts 1 week ago were much smaller.

Now, we KNOW we are underestimating infection rates. Maybe by 2x-4x. That still puts you well above 1% mortality, and possibly into 2%

The Diamond Princess mortality rate is nearly 2% in that small sample size, with 4 cases still listed as critical - 3 months later.

If NY's antibody tests are off by half and only 7% of their population has been infected, that yields a mortality rate of around 1.6%. That is a long way from 4-5%.

 

[runkpanole]

Yet a Fla dr talked last night about the perils of being a dr. during this pandemic. (Are the drs. who want to open up surgeons, of course they want to "open up".)

https://www.tampabay.com/news/healt...-should-resume-in-florida-doctors-group-says/

 

[grayhair81]

You were so horribly off on your case and mortality numbers in March.
I was right. I also made the projection in early April that we'd cross 60,000 deaths by the end of the month - back when IMHE was claiming deaths were going to decline rapidly.

It looks like we're likely to hit 65k or more by May 1.

Who knows what they are talking about here, and who is simply blowing smoke out their ass? You need me to repost your earlier nonsense: ("we won't see 2000 deaths from this", "we won't be Italy"). We are MORE THAN 2x worse than Italy now.

And you just showed your abject stupidity. We are nowhere near the mortality rate of Italy, Spain, France, the UK, The Netherlands. We have six times the population of any of those countries. Surely a world-renowned statistician such as yourself can recognize that reality. in which country are you practicing your SIP, Karl?

 

[Joes Place]

Since you have all of this figured out...

I read shit. I read and understand science and statistics. I post the accurate information here for you to likewise read and understand.

I run statistical analysis sometimes for companies I contract with - these types of studies aren't my typical swinglane, but I took stats in college and have a math major, so I fully understand what they are referring to here.

Most of the posters quoting these news articles do not, and the articles are not properly qualifying the results. Many of these "researchers" are probably junior-level folks, or they simply didn't use their biostatistics group to plan and analyze their studies, and many of these results won't make it thru peer review when actual statisticians vet their claims.

Again: there are both actual, serological, limitations to these studies AND statistical limitations. Stack those errors on top of one another, and you get very wide error bars, and these news stories are only touting the "upper end" of those error bars. Statisticians have already pointed out that the Santa Clara study error bars fall below "zero", meaning they cannot rule out, per their own data, that NO ONE in that county is infected. But we know some are. That is the level of reliability we are talking about here, and it is not good.

 

[haw-key]

You were so horribly off on your case and mortality numbers in March.
I was right. I also made the projection in early April that we'd cross 60,000 deaths by the end of the month - back when IMHE was claiming deaths were going to decline rapidly.

It looks like we're likely to hit 65k or more by May 1.

Who knows what they are talking about here, and who is simply blowing smoke out their ass? You need me to repost your earlier nonsense: ("we won't see 2000 deaths from this", "we won't be Italy"). We are MORE THAN 2x worse than Italy now.

Italy has 1/5 our population. How bout that math Mr Expert.

Again Joe, your age? Come on. Your mouth isn’t silent on anything but yet, cat got your tongue?

Edit. Sorry for duplicate post @grayhair81. Typing at same time it seems.

 

[Joes Place]

We have six times the population of any of those countries.

Again: Math

 

[Joes Place]

Italy has 1/5 our population. How bout that math Mr Expert.

 

[strummingram]

I read shit. I read and understand science and statistics. I post the accurate information here for you to likewise read and understand.

I run statistical analysis sometimes for companies I contract with - these types of studies aren't my typical swinglane, but I took stats in college and have a math major, so I fully understand what they are referring to here.

Most of the posters quoting these news articles do not, and the articles are not properly qualifying the results. Many of these "researchers" are probably junior-level folks, or they simply didn't use their biostatistics group to plan and analyze their studies, and many of these results won't make it thru peer review when actual statisticians vet their claims.

Again: there are both actual, serological, limitations to these studies AND statistical limitations. Stack those errors on top of one another, and you get very wide error bars, and these news stories are only touting the "upper end" of those error bars. Statisticians have already pointed out that the Santa Clara study error bars fall below "zero", meaning they cannot rule out, per their own data, that NO ONE in that county is infected. But we know some are. That is the level of reliability we are talking about here, and it is not good.

I'm impressed by the incredibly humble account you have of yourself. We should all consider ourselves lucky to have you.

 

[Joes Place]

If NY's antibody tests are off by half and only 7% of their population has been infected, that yields a mortality rate of around 1.6%. That is a long way from 4-5%.

It's not how the math works, grayhair.

READ the info posted by people who know WTF they are talking about.

 

[haw-key]

Joe! joe? Your age please? This isn’t a hard question.

 

[Joes Place]

Since you have all of this figured out... why the hell have you been relegated to a sports message board?

This is an Off Topic message board

 

[Joes Place]

Joe! joe? Your age please? This isn’t a hard question.

It seems as though "data" which refutes your point "pisses you off".

Instead of recognizing your claim or point is incorrect, you instead run off to ad-hominem attacks.

Why is that? Just understand that your grasp of the information here is lacking, and read what posters who DO understand these things are telling you, and the information they are posting for you.

You seem so stuck in your right-wing, anti-science mentality you cannot think straight.
I've posted nothing "political" in this thread, I've posted science and statistics criticisms. Take off the MAGA glasses and sit down and learn something, bro.

 

[grayhair81]

"population has little impact on countries' death tolls"
Hmmm. If country A has a population 19% of country B yet has 40% as many deaths as country B, which country was more successful at caring for its citizens, even leaving out the fact country A made an official decision not to treat octogenerians in some of its cities?

 

[Joes Place]

"population has little impact on countries' death tolls"
Hmmm. If country A has a population 19% of country B yet has 40% as many deaths as country B, which country was more successful at caring for its citizens, even leaving out the fact country A made an official decision not to treat octogenerians in some of its cities?

Again: Math.

It's why we like to use "charts" and "data" to analyze things, and not simply "speculate" on how we WANT them to look.

 

[grayhair81]

Again: Math.

It's why we like to use "charts" and "data" to analyze things, and not simply "speculate" on how we WANT them to look.

Well, Karl, that was pretty basic math that even a foreign bot such as yourself can understand. It doesn't support your narrative so you do what you do: talk like you are some kind of expert on something you aren't to discredit the speaker. The math is simple, Karl-the US has done a better job caring for its citizens than the countries that practice your and your minions' vision of socialist policies. You are as transparent as white shorts over black undies. And as full of shit as a three-day-old diaper.

 

[Joes Place]

Well, Karl, that was pretty basic math that even a foreign bot such as yourself can understand. It doesn't support your narrative so you do what you do: talk like you are some kind of expert on something you aren't to discredit the speaker. The math is simple, Karl-the US has done a better job caring for its citizens than the countries that practice your and your minions' vision of socialist policies. You are as transparent as white shorts over black undies. And as full of shit as a three-day-old diaper.

Shorter: "I was grossly wrong about death rates 'slowing down' back in March, and I'm still seriously pissed off about being corrected on that point"

 

[grayhair81]

Shorter: "I was grossly wrong about death rates 'slowing down' back in March, and I'm still seriously pissed off about being corrected on that point"

Who said this, Karl? "The US has had the worst response to the outbreak of any country in the world"? Hint-it wasn't me.

 

[haw-key]

It seems as though "data" which refutes your point "pisses you off".

Instead of recognizing your claim or point is incorrect, you instead run off to ad-hominem attacks.

Why is that? Just understand that your grasp of the information here is lacking, and read what posters who DO understand these things are telling you, and the information they are posting for you.

You seem so stuck in your right-wing, anti-science mentality you cannot think straight.
I've posted nothing "political" in this thread, I've posted science and statistics criticisms. Take off the MAGA glasses and sit down and learn something, bro.

You are a bitter, afraid, arrogant, self righteous old man.

 

[Joes Place]

Who said this, Karl? "The US has had the worst response to the outbreak of any country in the world"? Hint-it wasn't me.

That's factually based. Look at the data, bro. We have 4% of the world's population; ~30% of the world's cases. And we were not the source of the outbreak. We were 4th or 5th in line - plenty of time for us to mount a timely response.

 

[Joes Place]

You are a bitter, afraid, arrogant, self righteous old man.

U seem angry at the data.
Data that no longer supports your "leans hard right" political stance.

The cognitive dissonance is resulting in displaced aggression.

 

[Joes Place]

You are a bitter, afraid, arrogant, self righteous old man.

When u got no data, facts or analysis to base your argument on, you go right for the ad hominems.

BAU.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Reported US coronavirus deaths:

8 weeks ago: 1 death
7 weeks ago: 19 deaths
6 weeks ago: 58 deaths
5 weeks ago: 323 deaths
4 weeks ago: 2,043 deaths
3 weeks ago: 8,488 deaths
2 weeks ago: 20,604 deaths
1 week ago: 38,903 deaths
Right now: 53,755 deaths

The good news is the last doubling took 10 days. A few weeks ago we saw a doubling every 3-4 days.

The numbers of cases and deaths per day are still higher than they were a week or 2 ago - that's the bad news. But the rate is slowing - that's the good news.

 

[Joes Place]

The good news is the last doubling took 10 days. A few weeks ago we saw a doubling every 3-4 days.

The numbers of cases and deaths per day are still higher than they were a week or 2 ago - that's the bad news. But the rate is slowing - that's the good news.

Rate is slowing, yes.

Rate needs to be dropping for us to start eliminating social distancing and opening things back up to normal.

In ~8 weeks we hit 60k deaths (or we will in a couple days); that literally means we can only sustain a few dozens of cases per region per day, and if cases climb to >100 a day, we need to shut back down or we end up back where we are now, but $4T poorer, because we wasted all that effort.

 

[pablow]

You are a bitter, afraid, arrogant, self righteous old man.

You have no basis to say he's old.

 

[royhobbs2]

Mortality rate is all that matters. The Univ Miami, USC, Stanford studies all suggest a mortality rate of .1-.15...….the same as the flu.

You don't shut down the country for the flu.

Millions have been exposed with mild to no symptoms, that's what they are finding when they test large numbers of people.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Rate is slowing, yes.

Rate needs to be dropping for us to start eliminating social distancing and opening things back up to normal.

In ~8 weeks we hit 60k deaths (or we will in a couple days); that literally means we can only sustain a few dozens of cases per region per day, and if cases climb to >100 a day, we need to shut back down or we end up back where we are now, but $4T poorer, because we wasted all that effort.

At the moment, about 6,000 people are dying per day, world-wide, from C19.

A THIRD of all deaths in the world are occurring right here in America. Only 27% of total deaths, but 34% of yesterday's deaths.

We have 4% of the world's population.

We are the world's richest nation.

We are told we have the world's best health care system.

WHY ARE WE SO MUCH WORSE than most of the rest of the world?

I point this out because when people start pointing fingers of blame, it's important to know what we are blaming them for.