California ER Doctors Corona Virus Briefing is Jaw Dropping
- Thread starter royhobbs2
- Start date
No it doesn't really, the whole point the ER Drs and Univ Miami, USC, Stanford was making is that the covid virus is already widespread and most have mild/no symptoms. This is why the mortality rate is found to be on par with the flu.
See Norway and Sweden, one SIP and one didn't.
Even if true, widespread doesn’t equal everyone and without SIP, there would be far more total cases, which would obviously ramp up the death counts. I get the studies and I hope the numbers hold up, but this isn’t just the flu....at best, it’s what flu would be if there wasn’t a vaccine.
I think smart re-opening based on local conditions with dpsafeguards still in place and slowly eased out over the next 15-60 days is right for most places. A few may have to go slower. We’ll see what happens during re-opening. I hope it goes well.
This is a long thread so I'm sure you've already answered it, but if the mortality rate of Covid-19 is on par with the flu, why have more people died from Covid-19 in 2 months than flu in a typical entire year, also considering not all Americans have been exposed yet?
Is it possible that you're simply cherry picking the opinion that you want to believe? I understand, everyone wishes it wasn't a big deal... You do realize that you are selectively choosing an extremely rare opinion. I wonder why you gravitate so fervently to this particular one?
Something that I find really interesting is how NYC is so far ahead of EVERY other city and states combined! It looks like only the Boston area even comes close, and that's not even very close to the boroughs of NYC and their surrounding counties. I realize NYC is the most densely populated city in North America, but the numbers there are staggering!
Philadelphia isn't too far away, and it is densely populated, and it isn't anywhere close to NYC's numbers. All of the large cities in America are way behind NYC. If you take out the NYC and surrounding area cases and fatalities, the numbers are 40% lower. They must have a super-virulent strain running around up there.
Philadelphia isn't too far away, and it is densely populated, and it isn't anywhere close to NYC's numbers. All of the large cities in America are way behind NYC. If you take out the NYC and surrounding area cases and fatalities, the numbers are 40% lower. They must have a super-virulent strain running around up there.
I'm guessing in this long thread somewhere is the info where these doctors were exposed as purveying bad information and self-serving conclusions...
https://www.dailynews.com/2020/04/2...ycqlqmZYJpUt_llD4W2DFamSEwKNxX7aEBpQMcr2hkL2Y
https://www.dailynews.com/2020/04/2...ycqlqmZYJpUt_llD4W2DFamSEwKNxX7aEBpQMcr2hkL2Y
These two Doctors have been pretty thoroughly discredited by every research organization that knows anything about this. Why is this thread still going? I would think Roy would have picked a different thread to show everyone how dumb he is but he seems to really like this one.
Philly is a big, crowded city, but not nearly in the way NYC is. Philly has roughly 1.5 million people in 141.7 sq miles. That's pretty dense, but with the exception of Staten Island (only half a million people), NYC's boroughs are amazingly packed:
- Brooklyn: 2.5 million people in 69.5 sq mi.
- Queens: 2.3 million people in 108 sq mi.
- Manhattan: 1.6 million people in 22.8 sq mi
- Bronx: 1.4 million people in 42 sq mi
Back to Philly - 10.5k people packed into each square mile. The difference is staggering.
Geeze, what happens in Illinois around the first week of January for a couple of years in there? And before someone from the peanut gallery chirps in about gun deaths, those hit their peek in the middle of summer.
Ummm.... Sweden has 20,302 confirmed cases with 2,462 deaths for a ratio of 12.1%. Norway has 7,660 cases with 206 deaths - a ratio of 2.7%.
Another fail on your part.
The confirmed cases part is where lots of people are getting.gnis wrong though isn't it.....that potentially changes the ratio quite a bit don't you think?
Correct. We know those ratios are high because we already know that a good percentage of infected individuals are asymptomatic and unlikely to have been tested. That is what makes this particular disease so dangerous. It is likely to be unwittingly spread quickly AND the high number of actual deaths themselves signify it's danger as compared to the flu regardless of the actual and unknowable death rate.
Because it can be spread easily by people showing no symptoms, widespread and quick testing would be our most valuable tool to have while reopening the country and stabilizing our economy.
FWIW...."a good percentage" isn't "tens of millions of Americans".
We might be 2x off, perhaps more. That means 60,000 dead from 2 million infections.
That's 3% mortality, right out of the gate. Ignoring those who end up with long-term health issues from this.
And we're already seeing deaths may have a 50% undercount. So 90k/2M is 4.5%.
The numbers we MIGHT have are not good at all. Pretending some rosy-colored-glasses scenario is how you end up with a flawed 737 MAX that keeps crashing out of the sky.
Is that our "plan" here?
Yes Sweden has 2400 deaths for 10 million people. Do the math. The mortality rate is so low it does not justify a shutdown.
.00024
Or it makes it less dangerous. In the short term the assumption towards it being more dangerous is the correct assumption. Longer term the facts need to dictate things and for some stupid reason this has all become political with each tribe doing their thing.
....and using a 4-day diagnosis-to-death delay calculation, our "mortality rate" has been 4%-6% since the middle of March. Hasn't really gone outside that range. At all.
Not a good number. You'd expect that'd drop significantly over time. It has not. Currently US numbers at about 6.5% (59,266 deaths/925,232 diagnosed cases 4 days prior)
If you want to assume we've underestimated diagnosed cases by 4x, then you're looking at a 1.5% mortality rate, or 15x higher than normal flu.
Long term facts:
- We are still short PPE supplies
- We still cannot test everyone who needs a test
- We currently have >800k active infections and want to "reopen"; in mid March, we had ~2000 active infections and we ended up with 1,000,000 just 45 days later.
There were 220000 positives in Miami Dade alone. Your mortality rate is a steaming pile of bull$hit
Even by that flawed logic Sweden is 8x more than Norway. You're spinning like a top but it doesn't change the facts.
The entire population tested positive? Holy cow, they really were on top of testing. Sure makes 45 look even worse.
Sweden’s death rate of 22 per 100,000 people is the same as that of Ireland, which has earned accolades for its handling of the pandemic, and far better than in Britain or France which did SIP.
Sweden will achieve herd immunity without ever having a lock down.
Their mortality rate is very low.
Sweden will achieve herd immunity without ever having a lock down.
Their mortality rate is very low.
Snopes and Politifact are going to break pretty soon, being overwhelmed with the burden of constantly having to shoot down right-wing misinformation and propoganda.
Ireland has 19,877 confirmed cases and 1,159 deaths. A 5.8% ration which is much better than Sweden.
No matter how many times you are told: per-capita rates do not matter and have no correlation to pandemic outbreaks/control early on in a crisis. This has been posted for you many many times. You still regurgitate this disinformation.
Lol
it certainly does matter as the virus is widespread throughout the population. Sweden has a very low mortality rate when a true accounting is given of the positives in their population
stop trying to sound knowledgeable Joe. You are in all likelihood a paid poster who sits and copies and pastes from Twitter all day
it certainly does matter as the virus is widespread throughout the population. Sweden has a very low mortality rate when a true accounting is given of the positives in their population
stop trying to sound knowledgeable Joe. You are in all likelihood a paid poster who sits and copies and pastes from Twitter all day
Sweden is trying to get herd immunity. The infection rate is not low there you imbecile.
More than one in 10 people in Sweden may have been infected with the novel coronavirus since the outbreak began, the country’s leading medical university has said, citing preliminary results of a new Covid-19 antibody study.
This was over a week ago when they had 1700 deaths.
This gives a mortality rate of .17% ……...the same thing they found in the USC, Univ Miami and Stanford studies. Also the same as the two ER Doctors in California found.
This is in the same ballpark as the Flu.
This was over a week ago when they had 1700 deaths.
This gives a mortality rate of .17% ……...the same thing they found in the USC, Univ Miami and Stanford studies. Also the same as the two ER Doctors in California found.
This is in the same ballpark as the Flu.
