Coronavirus
- Thread starter Ronman
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I don't think it's crazy to predict that more people will die from this ensuing depression than from Coronavirus.
How many have died to date? And why do you think there will be a depression after this?
that covers what 1/4 of what we spend on security for his weekly vacations? lol
his golf course has billed 178 million dollars for his events and outings
You should familiarize yourself with the work of Harvey Brenner and the ground breaking econometric analysis of public health and economic performance.
The single most significant factor in public health is economic growth and its various manifestations in low unemployment, rising incomes, optimism about future economic performance, etc.... Even basic econometric analysis shows a linear relationship between the decline of public health and rising death rates/reduced life expectancy with poor economic performance.
Here's a link. This is more recent research but Brenner's work goes back to the late 70s/early 80s. Replicated by most analyses.
It doesn't take a depression to trigger a significant negative impact on mortality and morbidity. So cratering the economy to prevent the spread of a disease, which right now hasn't had a health impact much worse than a really bad flu year, brings a virtual host of adverse public health reactions.
Right now, the "science" is telling us the US at or slightly past the peak risk from Chinese Covid, with rates flattening and declining in most areas, the disease has reached only 2/10ths of 1% of the American population. The actual death rates are around 2%, not the 50% that "science" initially projected. Roughly 33,000 Chinese Covid deaths represents approximately 1/100th of 1 percent of the American population.
Moreover, that figure does not distinguish co-morbidity deaths, so bear in mind most deaths from Chinese Covid have been among elderly and/or already seriously ill people so we can assume that at least some portion of the Covid deaths were really caused by the preexisting serious illness.
Let's assume you are the policy maker. How many people are you willing to kill through the effects of an economic crises to save that 1/100th of the population? How many small businesses will you destroy? How many community bank failures are you willing to accept? Bear further in mind that all of those people killed, businesses destroyed and poverty created will have weeping victims and destroyed families; every bit as devastated as are those weeping for the loss of a family member to Chinese Covid.
Those are the alternatives.
The science is telling you it's 2% if you don't overrun our health systems. It'll be 8-10%, like Italy, if you let it ride. The only reason we keep it near 2% is because we have support infrastructure in place for those who become gravely ill. When 20% of the people who become ill from this can no longer get into hospitals, 10% is probably an underestimate.
True, but many areas are no where close to putting a strain on the hospitals. I live in Wisconsin and hospitals are laying off workers, because they have LESS patients than a normal year. In yet the genuis governor and DHS just extended the "safer-at-home" until May 26th.
The initial goal was to prevent the hospitals from being overrun, but now it seems to have shifted to STOPPING the virus, which wasn't the goal and I don't think it is possible to completely stop the virus.
How soon we forget; March 13 we had 50 deaths; in just over 2 wks, we had ~4000.
When you have virus in your area - which is in MOST counties across the country, you have potential for that kind of blowup very quickly. The only reason things are spreading slower is because of distancing mitigations. The minute you unleash all those interpersonal contacts, you risk another round of geometric growth.
So what is the plan? Isolation until the virus is "gone"? I haven't heard what the threshold is for relaxing restrictions.
They are laying off workers because they are in non-covid-19 positions (elective surgeries, etc.) since those can't be done. It's a cost saving measure for these hospitals and clinics, but they could be expanding to help with the Covid-19 crisis. For-profit medicine to the rescue!
And flattening the curve doesn't necessarily mean less cases of Covid-19, it means less cases at one time. It stretches out and flattens the curve so that hospitals aren't hammered with a bunch of critical cases all at once. This means that we need to sustain the measures we have been (at least those of us who actually DID take measures!) longer in order for this to work. If we jump back in too early as some propose, the curve will go up again and this time it'll be on a health sysyem that is already tired and low on supplies. Better to give current measures another few months before we claim victory.
Unemployment now exceeds 22 million with a few places in this country with huge lines of cars at food pantries. Compare that number to 675,000 known cases and 35,000 deaths in a country of 330 million people. Globally there’s been 2 million cases with a world population of 7.7 billion. Projected cost to the US of 7 trillion dollars and greatest job loss in US history.
This has been the most over-blown, media & snowflake society generated paranoia in my lifetime bar none.
Real numbers, real data ignored.
This has been the most over-blown, media & snowflake society generated paranoia in my lifetime bar none.
Real numbers, real data ignored.
Those numbers are still climbing and will be outdated within days.
If you are lucky, you will have a long lifetime. There are some who won't.
So are the unemployment numbers and cost to this country.
I’d rather not be selfish and leave a thriving country for generations to come instead of a defunct and bankrupt one over virus numbers that don’t even rival heart disease, cancer, accidents, respiratory disease, etc.
There’s a sucker born every minute.
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The ball is in each governor's court now. Country will open incrementally, based on science, geographic incidence of infections, and how it will be implemented to continue effective mitigation. The least populated areas, and those places with low infection rates will probably be the ones who will be allowed to return to work. Each company should have guidelines in place in order to safely permit workers to perform their duties. I can hardly imagine how different the workplace will be following this mitigation. Sporting events will resume without fans in stadiums, I assume, but as with other events, should begin to filter fans in incrementally over time.
That's the problem. Your WH and Trump Admin has no plan.
I could write up the basics of what they need to do in an afternoon; what truly amazes me is that I see none of how it should be handled being communicated to the public.
That's not a "plan".
Nor a "strategy". If you want a sustainable reopening, you need to work out what that means. And while I wouldn't say it is "trivial", it is eminently do-able if you have competent people to work it out. That appears to be what this administration is woefully lacking. And that is because "capability" isn't valued; "loyalty" is. Ergo, you have a shitload of incompetent loyalists who have no idea what to do, and they're all looking to Trump for his "approval" on anything they say.
Let's see how each Governor performs according to what their state is experiencing. They have the authority now and have had. Each state is unique. Let's see how creative they are.
Let's not. Because none of them have control over key metrics that are necessary for a sustainable reopening.
Should be exciting to see how each state responds. I look for co-operation between states to handle interstate travel and how merchantable goods and services are addressed between them, as many are somewhat dependent on this. I would agree that metrics could be tricky as each business has a unique set.
This is along the lines of what I just posted in a "logistics problem" thread. Just a high level strategy to figure out a sustainable number of cases we can deal with.
This virus isn't going away until we have both vaccines and effective medications readily available - when those come out, you can run the same metrics I'd outlined w/ updated numbers. It is what HAS to happen to get a sustainable, continual recovery in place.
Until we have widely available testing to relatively quickly tell when someone is infected and then trace recent contacts to shut off spread, a strategy that has been used very effectively in some Asian countries, it is going to be difficult to reopen much without risking a second burst of cases. Despite almost every medical expert that I have heard saying this, our President doesn't want to make testing a priority, Hard to understand why.
And for those who believe everything that comes out of the president's mouth, no we still don't have sufficient testing capability, although it was promised more than a month ago.
And for those who believe everything that comes out of the president's mouth, no we still don't have sufficient testing capability, although it was promised more than a month ago.
Your argument is premised on a series of hypothetical events that did not, in reality, occur. There were no hospitals overrun, anywhere in the US. There was no depravation of access to medical care, anywhere in the United States.
The IMHE model on April 5, assuming full mitigation in all 50 states-another premise that hasn't proven true-we'd see 197,000 deaths and millions infected. One day later, the estimate drops by around 66% to 67,000. Tomorrow the next IMHE appears. Bet we see another significant drop. Remember, the country has not implemented the "social distancing" upon which the 197,000 model was based so, if the original estimates were "scientific" we should have seen a worse outcome than predicted, not one that is three times better.
This threat was exaggerated. A bi-partisan stampede occurred and we've now got 22 million people unemployed when six weeks ago we had the most employed persons in American history. This is what happens when people uncritically believe the "science".
I was just watching tv and decided to check some postings and I came across yours. First of all, I wish you well and am glad you came out on the right side of the Heart Attack! I'm 68, retired, and so is my wife. We have "Pre-existing" health issues ourselves, and I also feast on pills as well so I know where you're coming from. We're lucky in that we don't have to raise our kids (been there, done that) and have to be at a job each day and make sure the kids get to school, etc. My heart goes out to those people who have the family, the mortgage/rent, food for the table, and all the other necessities that come with life and raising a family. Those who have lost a job, a business, or a career because of this crisis. And my heart goes out to all of those who have been infected by the virus. So many people have been affected by this in so many ways. So many needs. I also wonder how many have turned to drink or drugs because of this and all of the horrible effects those things cause. As with all other things, we'll get through all of this and life will go on. I'll continue to pray as many others are as well and we'll make it to the other side.
The problem is, tens of thousands of people are still getting infected, daily, weeks after we were all suppose to be going into shutdown.
Why are so many people still getting sick if they're doing what they're suppose to be doing?................
The answer is, because they are not.
Either that or this virus is transmitting in ways that "social distancing" can't stop, in which case people are f***ed anyways!!!
P.S. Oh and scientists/doctors apparently have no f***ing clue as to why, or currently how, and how to stop it. Great stuff.......
I want to thank you for answering my above post, Joe.
Let's me know how little people really know what's going on.
Same goes for if everyone was forced to stay in their homes (i.e. house arrest) for a month.
There's zero proof that people would't just get sick once they open everything up a month later, considering all this talk of a "second wave".
It's not like the virus is apparently going anywhere, or dying off.
So basically it's time to start shutting everything down, and I mean everything (no work or fun for anyone) and living in caves until scientists and doctors can come up with the cure, however the f*** long that takes to mass produce and then figure out how the medical system can effectively profit from it.....), that way we can appease the "no lives lost" crowd.
Told you we should have killed it with fire.
Oh and this is gonna be a thread of it's own soon. I just wanted you to hear it first.
It's high time we push out "criteria" for the shutdown, and communicate them explicitly to Americans.
Like I'd posted already:
https://iowa.forums.rivals.com/threads/this-is-a-logistics-problem-at-its-root.312736/
Check out the Stanford study....
What’s this say about the accuracy of data used to make decisions, death rates and scare tactics that have been playing? Likely many more have been infected already.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/antibody-research-coronavirus-widespread/story?id=70206121
What’s this say about the accuracy of data used to make decisions, death rates and scare tactics that have been playing? Likely many more have been infected already.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/antibody-research-coronavirus-widespread/story?id=70206121
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...and in the thread on this, we'd pointed out the authors of this paper admit "in the fine print" that a very small adjustment to their assay "specificity" means the infection rates in the area are literally "0".
Michigan is an example of why your start and stop idea isn't an option......
Nice try though.
None of that happened in NYC. They didn't even fully utilize the healthcare facilities that either pre existed or were built up weeks ago.
While the New Yorkers have constantly complained, and there's no doubt they got hammered harder than any other place, none of the panic created crises actually materialized.
All of those a symptomatic, or had only minor and passing discomfort, also demonstrate the gross exaggerations of Chinese Covid's mortality rate-already less than half predicted by the "science".
Here's how the absolute uncritical belief in the "science" turns into this global cluster****. One day some "scientists" walked into Trump, Cuomo, Murphy, Newsome, etc.... These were of course doctors and public health officials. The scientists told the policy makers that something like the Black Death was coming. Infections of up to twenty million people. Death rates possibly as high as 50%. Those policy makers then utterly freaked out because no one wants to be remembered as the guy that unleashed Black Death on their constituents. Hence, policy makers didn't stop to contemplate the possibility that these "scientists" could be exaggerating. Probably not intentionally and perhaps based on a highly improbable worst case scenario but the "scientists" were profoundly wrong and the result has been devastating to the country.
It absolutely did.
One nurse made a video explaining how she was responsible for 14 ICU patients.
"Normal" times, they are responsible for 1-2; 3 in a pinch.
You cannot claim they were not "overrun" and assert 14 ICU patients per ICU nurse is "normal". That's simply nonsense.
