COVID-19 Thread
- Thread starter Kwoodhawk
- Start date
Has anyone seen or heard the death counts. We keep getting the number of cases, but I am having trouble finding out the deaths.
15299 positive cases, hospitalizations increased by130, 45 deaths. from a former NYT reporter. And that's why you're not easley seeing it?
The deaths have not been high as related to the number of Covid illness. That figure is delayed several weeks to a month after illness begins. Partially as a result of younger people testing positive, partly due to the delay and partly due to better medical care. The most important number to watch is “the number of hospitalizations”. That number relates to symptomatic patients.
Also Florida has not been giving that information out. There is a chart of total deaths and cases which is shown on the news which seems like every 10 minutes. Maybe not on Fox News.
7000 currently hospitalized in Florida according to the following article:
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/cor...0200710-5fpnosf2m5feteib5gtwb3lkz4-story.html
This thread is amazing because people I never ever thought I’d agree with apparently think like I do In some regards.
Lots of newfound appreciation for so many of you.
Lots of newfound appreciation for so many of you.
I do not want total deaths. I want daily deaths. We get numbers for daily cases. I am having trouble getting numbers for daily deaths. Also, the NYTimes article would not let me in.
If the following article is true, what are your suggestions for moving forward?
Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,
Over the past several months, there has been a tremendous amount of debate about almost every aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic. People have been eager to debate about the severity of the virus, they have been eager to debate about the wisdom of the lockdowns, and they have been eager to debate about the effectiveness of wearing masks. But the one thing that everyone could pretty much agree on is that eventually this pandemic would end. Virtually all of us assumed that one way or another eventually most of the population would develop COVID-19 antibodies and that once we got to that point the pandemic would fizzle out. Unfortunately, it appears that was not a safe assumption to make.
Yes, those that have had COVID-19 do develop antibodies.
“within 2 to 3 months”…
A new study from China showed that antibodies faded quickly in both asymptomatic and symptomatic COVID-19 patients during convalescence, raising questions about whether the illness leads to any lasting immunity to the virus afterward.
The study, which focused on 37 asymptomatic and 37 symptomatic patients, showed that more than 90% of both groups showed steep declines in levels of SARS-COV-2–specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies within 2 to 3 months after onset of infection, according to a report published yesterday in Nature Medicine. Further, 40% of the asymptomatic group tested negative for IgG antibodies 8 weeks after they were released from isolation.
And a very large study that was just conducted in Spain found that some patients that had initially successfully developed antibodies “no longer had antibodies weeks later”…
A large study from Spain showed that antibodies can disappear weeks after people have tested positive, causing some to question how possible it will be to attain herd immunity.
A study published in medical journal Lancet showed 14% of people who tested positive for antibodies no longer had antibodies weeks later.
Needless to say, this is absolutely devastating news, and it has very serious implications for vaccine development…
for Vox, a doctor in Washington D.C. named D. Clay Ackerly shared that one of his patients got infected with COVID-19 again three months after being infected the first time…
“Wait. I can catch Covid twice?” my 50-year-old patient asked in disbelief. It was the beginning of July, and he had just tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, for a second time — three months after a previous infection.
And in that same article, Dr. Ackerly explained that other doctors are starting to see similar cases….
Recent reports and conversations with physician colleagues suggest my patient is not alone. Two patients in New Jersey, for instance, appear to have contracted Covid-19 a second time almost two months after fully recovering from their first infection. Daniel Griffin, a physician and researcher at Columbia in New York, recently described a case of presumed reinfection on the This Week in Virology podcast.
If you stop and really think about what all of this means, it will chill you to the core.
It means that COVID-19 is never going away.
And every time you get it, the more severe it is likely to be. Each time it will do even more permanent damage to your system until it finally finishes you off.
I seriously wish that what I was telling you was not true. I do not want to have to worry about a potentially deadly virus every time I leave my house.
But sticking our heads in the sand and pretending that everything is going to be okay somehow is not going to do us any good.
In fact, denial can kill you.
A 37-year-old Ohio man named Richard Rose originally thought that all of the fuss about COVID-19 was just “hype”, and he angrily insisted that he would never buy a mask. The following is what he posted on Facebook on April 28th…
‘Let make this clear,’ he wrote, in a post that was shared 10,000 times.
‘I’m not buying a ******* mask. I’ve made it this far by not buying into that damn hype.’
Sadly, he eventually got infected, and COVID-19 killed him on July 3rd…
Richard Rose, a 37-year-old man from Port Clinton, Ohio, recently died from coronavirus after slamming “hype” about the pandemic on Facebook.
Rose’s family told Cleveland CBS affiliate 19 News the US Army veteran died at home on July 3, just three days after testing positive for COVID-19.
He was a healthy 37-year-old man.
If the virus can take him down, it could potentially take just about anyone down.
So please take this pandemic seriously.
Over the past week, we have seen daily numbers soar to levels that we have never seen before, and some experts believe that the numbers will continue to go higher as we approach the end of the year.
And as I just discussed above, if those that have had the virus quickly lose immunity, there will be nothing to stop this virus from sweeping across the globe year after year.
Needless to say, a lot more scientific studies need to be conducted, and hopefully those additional studies will show that the studies that were done in China and Spain were completely wrong.
But at this point the outlook for fighting this virus is exceedingly bleak, and scientists assure us that it is just a matter of time before a pandemic that is even worse comes along.
Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,
Over the past several months, there has been a tremendous amount of debate about almost every aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic. People have been eager to debate about the severity of the virus, they have been eager to debate about the wisdom of the lockdowns, and they have been eager to debate about the effectiveness of wearing masks. But the one thing that everyone could pretty much agree on is that eventually this pandemic would end. Virtually all of us assumed that one way or another eventually most of the population would develop COVID-19 antibodies and that once we got to that point the pandemic would fizzle out. Unfortunately, it appears that was not a safe assumption to make.
Yes, those that have had COVID-19 do develop antibodies.
“within 2 to 3 months”…
A new study from China showed that antibodies faded quickly in both asymptomatic and symptomatic COVID-19 patients during convalescence, raising questions about whether the illness leads to any lasting immunity to the virus afterward.
The study, which focused on 37 asymptomatic and 37 symptomatic patients, showed that more than 90% of both groups showed steep declines in levels of SARS-COV-2–specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies within 2 to 3 months after onset of infection, according to a report published yesterday in Nature Medicine. Further, 40% of the asymptomatic group tested negative for IgG antibodies 8 weeks after they were released from isolation.
And a very large study that was just conducted in Spain found that some patients that had initially successfully developed antibodies “no longer had antibodies weeks later”…
A large study from Spain showed that antibodies can disappear weeks after people have tested positive, causing some to question how possible it will be to attain herd immunity.
A study published in medical journal Lancet showed 14% of people who tested positive for antibodies no longer had antibodies weeks later.
Needless to say, this is absolutely devastating news, and it has very serious implications for vaccine development…
for Vox, a doctor in Washington D.C. named D. Clay Ackerly shared that one of his patients got infected with COVID-19 again three months after being infected the first time…
“Wait. I can catch Covid twice?” my 50-year-old patient asked in disbelief. It was the beginning of July, and he had just tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, for a second time — three months after a previous infection.
And in that same article, Dr. Ackerly explained that other doctors are starting to see similar cases….
Recent reports and conversations with physician colleagues suggest my patient is not alone. Two patients in New Jersey, for instance, appear to have contracted Covid-19 a second time almost two months after fully recovering from their first infection. Daniel Griffin, a physician and researcher at Columbia in New York, recently described a case of presumed reinfection on the This Week in Virology podcast.
If you stop and really think about what all of this means, it will chill you to the core.
It means that COVID-19 is never going away.
And every time you get it, the more severe it is likely to be. Each time it will do even more permanent damage to your system until it finally finishes you off.
I seriously wish that what I was telling you was not true. I do not want to have to worry about a potentially deadly virus every time I leave my house.
But sticking our heads in the sand and pretending that everything is going to be okay somehow is not going to do us any good.
In fact, denial can kill you.
A 37-year-old Ohio man named Richard Rose originally thought that all of the fuss about COVID-19 was just “hype”, and he angrily insisted that he would never buy a mask. The following is what he posted on Facebook on April 28th…
‘Let make this clear,’ he wrote, in a post that was shared 10,000 times.
‘I’m not buying a ******* mask. I’ve made it this far by not buying into that damn hype.’
Sadly, he eventually got infected, and COVID-19 killed him on July 3rd…
Richard Rose, a 37-year-old man from Port Clinton, Ohio, recently died from coronavirus after slamming “hype” about the pandemic on Facebook.
Rose’s family told Cleveland CBS affiliate 19 News the US Army veteran died at home on July 3, just three days after testing positive for COVID-19.
He was a healthy 37-year-old man.
If the virus can take him down, it could potentially take just about anyone down.
So please take this pandemic seriously.
Over the past week, we have seen daily numbers soar to levels that we have never seen before, and some experts believe that the numbers will continue to go higher as we approach the end of the year.
And as I just discussed above, if those that have had the virus quickly lose immunity, there will be nothing to stop this virus from sweeping across the globe year after year.
Needless to say, a lot more scientific studies need to be conducted, and hopefully those additional studies will show that the studies that were done in China and Spain were completely wrong.
But at this point the outlook for fighting this virus is exceedingly bleak, and scientists assure us that it is just a matter of time before a pandemic that is even worse comes along.
For starters, people in other countries aren’t whining about having to wear masks like they are in this country. You get what you earn I guess.
Not sure. But it took them many folds more tests that day to beat NY’s record. If at that time NY had the ability to test as many as FL did they’d have blown them out of the water.
Also, utilized Florida ICU beds are up less Than 3% over the past week. Their biggest issue is personnel, ironically due to layoffs caused by an elective surgery ban. They are filling those positions but that takes time.
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I suspect neither. Most did not undertake, listen to, or understand expert risk analysis, and if it was just about "freedom" we"d see more naked people wandering the streets in protest of clothes-wearing policies.....although maybe threat of a fine overrides desire for 'clothes freedom' in that case. Depending on individual, it's part laziness, part machismo, part vanity, some honest forgetfulness, and a lot of just following whatever their tribe's M.O.. says they should do. Unfortunately, our innate but growing tribalism has now even led to mask policy distinctions. We all need group identity, but unfortunately that tends to turn off critical thinking skills....true for all tribes.
Hopefully the reinfection/lack of immunity turns out to be not valid. There have been many thousands of Covid cases in NJ and NY, but only a few possible reinfections. It is more likely that these “reinfections” represent possible false positive results on one of their tests or an immune problem with certain patients. Also possible that patients treated with plasma antibodies may have their antibody production blocked by the treatment. It has also be noted in studies that Tcell immunity is present in Covid so that immunity is present with low or absent antibodies. We still have a lot to learn about this disease.
First they hoaxed the numerator, the number of deaths, by counting everyone who died with covid as having died of covid. Now that the weather has warmed up and the daily deaths have steadily been dropping, they are hoaxing the denominator, the number of cases.
They shout hysterically about the number of cases rising and ignore the fact that the number of cases is rising because they are doing more tests. They also neglect to mention that if the number of cases rises while the daily deaths drop then the virus is way less deadly than we thought a few months ago.
Does that hoaxed/inflated denominator of more cases also then explain the lower death rate? Whoever "they" are didn't think through their hoax very well.
Thanks for the input. It seemed like the article was trying to gin up as much fear as possible and make things sound as bad as possible. I found it especially telling when the last statement was something to the effect of "1 thing for sure - scientists Here in the worst pandemic in over 100 years and we are being warned about something worse coming along.
Anyway thanks.
Thanks. That is what I was looking for. It appears that while the cases have risen dramatically since April, the death count has dropped dramatically. That seems like the kind of news we should be celebrating as in this virus is not as deadly as we were led to believe. Am I off base here?
I read somewhere that Florida had 70,000 new cases last week and it added 130 hospital bed occupied. That sounds like good news also. It was not clear or I do not remember if they stated the 130 new beds were all Covid patients though.
It’s cute that you have your jerkmates back and all, but no....the comment I was referring to was the one making fun of a combat vets brain functioning as a result of PTSD.
Also, more of the infected are now younger (younger = fewer deaths), and we've learned how to treat Covid-19 better than we did in April.
I did not make fun of him for having PTSD, and I didn't know he had PTSD. PTSD is no joke.
The numbers are extremely difficult to datamine. Testing policies related to supplies have been an issue since day one. So the data is imperfect at best, but it is all we have. The % number of people with advanced covid waiting to get tested til they are admitted to the hospital has gone down. This is all the daily numbers are actually telling us if one insists on conflating deaths and positive tests in real time. So large numbers of positive tests today are predictors of future hospitalizations and subsequent deaths. This is why widespread (even though it really isn't adequate yet) testing is necessary and why if you feel sick just quarantine is bad for getting a grasp on the data picture this virus paints.
Ideally with younger healthier patients along with improved knowledge on how to treat the death rate per positive test will go down. Length of stay in the hospital also is not being reported. Did we go from a 15 day stay to a 5 and are we just able to treat more effectively? No one has a clue just yet.
There is nothing comforting in large daily positive tests and low death rates. It is a sign the fuse is lit but we don't really know how big or long the boom is gonna be.
Most of what I’ve read suggests a vaccine is still pretty promising even if the antibodies fade, with some even saying it’s possible many are still “immune” even with a decline in antibodies. It seems the one piece of negative news with this in regards to a vaccine is that you may just need one every few years or so instead of once for your life.
Saw you could not access the NYT link but that did show deaths increasing in Florida, including a record daily total today. Here’s another link:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/
Essentially, cases started increasing around the beginning of June, and deaths started increasing around the beginning of July, aligning with what many have said re: a delay of new cases to new deaths.
Even looking at nationally: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Daily new cases started increasing around mid-June, and daily deaths started increasing a week or so ago, again showing a similar lag. As several people have mentioned, the steep decline in deaths from earlier on is heavily influenced by NY/NJ.
So yeah, new cases probably isn’t the best metric and a big part of the increase is due to more testing. But a lot of the other metrics (deaths, hospitalizations and % positive) are increasing in many areas as well.
Good news today about a vaccine that could be available end of 2020 or early 2021. Made by Moderna. Congratulations if you own shares.
No, you’re not off base. The fact that they are telling everyone that the sky is falling because cases are rising instead of pointing out that it really means it is less deadly is a lie by omission. They are lying to us.
I think it’s also important to point out that the cases aren’t rising. The number of people who test positive is rising because the number of people being tested is rising. The graphs I posted that show number of tests and number of cases rising at the same rate. And most of the people testing positive would never have known if they had it if they hadn’t been tested.
The number of daily deaths from covid in U.S. is starting to accelerate, though not as dramatically as in March and early April, and not as dramatically as the # of new cases. Here is a graph of daily deaths in U.S, and you can see the upward slope happening in July.
But that is the U.S. as a whole, and of course, the brunt of the March and April mortality was borne by NY, and to a lesser degree by NJ, MA, IL, MI and PA.
Currently, death rates are going up pretty dramatically in many other states, including AZ, FL, CA, OR, SC, ND, SD, TN, TX, and UT.
If you are curious about any particular state, the JHU site has charts for any state you wish to see. Just click on "U.S. Map" then click on "Please select from the list" and pick your state. A graph will appear in the lower right corner. You can look at either confirmed cases or deaths.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map
I didn’t check every state, but I did check SD because I have a lot of family their and I hadn’t heard about the dramatic increase of daily deaths. When looking at the data I realized the reason I hadn’t heard about the dramatic rise in deaths is because there isn’t one. There was a one day spike to 6 deaths. Otherwise the graph looks just like it has for several months.The number of daily deaths from covid in U.S. is starting to accelerate, though not as dramatically as in March and early April, and not as dramatically as the # of new cases. Here is a graph of daily deaths in U.S, and you can see the upward slope happening in July.
But that is the U.S. as a whole, and of course, the brunt of the March and April mortality was borne by NY, and to a lesser degree by NJ, MA, IL, MI and PA.
Currently, death rates are going up pretty dramatically in many other states, including AZ, FL, CA, OR, SC, ND, SD, TN, TX, and UT.
If you are curious about any particular state, the JHU site has charts for any state you wish to see. Just click on "U.S. Map" then click on "Please select from the list" and pick your state. A graph will appear in the lower right corner. You can look at either confirmed cases or deaths.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map
So, the 54 hospitals in Florida really aren’t at ICU capacity and another 40 some aren’t nearing that point?
Here is Johns Hopkins chart for total deaths vs date for SD. There have clearly other days when # of deaths jumped.
In a small state like SD, maybe dramatic isn't the right word to use, but clearly SD hasn't flattened the curve.
Also SD is but one small state. There are many others, some with high populations, where the daily deaths are increasing. Take a look at Texas:
Florida:
The above states are all showing increases in daily deaths averaged over time in the last month or 2. Compare those curves to NY, where the curve has flattened compared to March/April.
You have to figure out who to believe. That is the problem with all of this. Conflicting data.
I can only speak from my personal experience and Covid has had little to no effect on my health or anyone I know. My 80 plus year old Aunt with dementia got infected in a nursing home and she recovers fully. No one else close to me has gotten sick. Naturally, I tend to believe the people saying the numbers are inflated and it is overblown.
I feel like we're in March again with the numbers people are trying to use as "proof," like "only 45 deaths in the state today."
Yeah, in 1 day. The pandemic has been going on for what, 120 days or so so far? Even if deaths don't (continue to) increase, 45 x another 120 days = over 5k.
The US has ~140k deaths so far, and only 7 states with more than 5k deaths. 45 per day adds up.
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