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COVID-19 Thread

Some more data to give people so they can question what to believe.

The number of cases in New York City was not reflected in the suburbs. Then you take Sweden with no lockdown and a population of about 10.23 million with 76,000 cases and about 5,500 deaths. New Jersey, which was locked down with a population of about 8.882 million saw 178,000 cases with about 15,000 deaths. There is NO EMPIRICAL evidence that a lockdown has achieved ANYTHINGdifferently compared to places that did not lockdown.
 
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rossel 33 said:
Here is Johns Hopkins chart for total deaths vs date for SD. There have clearly other days when # of deaths jumped.


In a small state like SD, maybe dramatic isn't the right word to use, but clearly SD hasn't flattened the curve.
Click to expand...

That's not the definition of flattening the curve. Flattening the curve means spreading out infection rates as not to overrun the healthcare system. SD (and Iowa, for that matter) were projected to do so. But instead, the government and people took steps to prevent this, and it worked. Neither state has come within a galaxy of overrunning the healthcare system. Certainly, we don't think SD and their whopping 111 deaths of people WITH Covid is a horrible place.

Other, more densely populated areas, are certainly having issues that are no joke.
 
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lookleft goright said:
Some more data to give people so they can question what to believe.

The number of cases in New York City was not reflected in the suburbs. Then you take Sweden with no lockdown and a population of about 10.23 million with 76,000 cases and about 5,500 deaths. New Jersey, which was locked down with a population of about 8.882 million saw 178,000 cases with about 15,000 deaths. There is NO EMPIRICAL evidence that a lockdown has achieved ANYTHINGdifferently compared to places that did not lockdown.
Click to expand...

You’re not honestly trying to compare New Jersey to Sweden are you?

Check out Sweden’s neighbors Norway and Finland. Combined population just under 11 million. Less than 600 deaths combined.
 
lookleft goright said:
You have to figure out who to believe. That is the problem with all of this. Conflicting data.

I can only speak from my personal experience and Covid has had little to no effect on my health or anyone I know. My 80 plus year old Aunt with dementia got infected in a nursing home and she recovers fully. No one else close to me has gotten sick. Naturally, I tend to believe the people saying the numbers are inflated and it is overblown.
Click to expand...

I tend to believe the science and health professionals. NOT the politicians spinning lies to influence the upcoming election.
 
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SPOONER said:
That's not the definition of flattening the curve. Flattening the curve means spreading out infection rates as not to overrun the healthcare system. SD (and Iowa, for that matter) were projected to do so. But instead, the government and people took steps to prevent this, and it worked. Neither state has come within a galaxy of overrunning the healthcare system. Certainly, we don't think SD and their whopping 111 deaths of people WITH Covid is a horrible place.

Other, more densely populated areas, are certainly having issues that are no joke.
Click to expand...


You are speaking about flattening the curve regarding slowing the growth in new cases of covid, so as to not overrun the healthcare system. I agree, and that is usually what people are talking about with the phrase flattening the curve.

Originally there was a question by lookleft about numbers of daily deaths. rcamp also brought up whether daily deaths were really increasing in SD.

I was pointing out that in many states daily deaths were indeed on the rise. SD fell into this category...it wasn't just a one day spike. So the shape of the curve of SD's # of daily deaths was going up recently, and hadn't "flattened." That's all. Sorry for the confusion.

Also, no one said SD is a "horrible place." While the numbers for SD are still small, their state population is of course small also, less than a million, less than half of Santa Clara county in CA.

But the larger point is this, even if we take SD out of the question - many other states are seeing daily death rates pick up. New covid cases are going up in many states. And, while not as dramatic, daily deaths are also going up.
 
lookleft goright said:
Some more data to give people so they can question what to believe.

The number of cases in New York City was not reflected in the suburbs. Then you take Sweden with no lockdown and a population of about 10.23 million with 76,000 cases and about 5,500 deaths. New Jersey, which was locked down with a population of about 8.882 million saw 178,000 cases with about 15,000 deaths. There is NO EMPIRICAL evidence that a lockdown has achieved ANYTHINGdifferently compared to places that did not lockdown.
Click to expand...

A more relevant comparison than NJ vs Sweden would be to compare Sweden with Norway, Denmark or Finland. From JHU.edu website, # deaths from covid

Sweden (population 10.1m) - 5419 deaths
Denmark (5.8m) - 610
Finland (5.5m) - 328
Norway (5.4m) - 253

Also, the argument that Sweden avoided an economic hit by staying open more than its neighbors doesn't seem to have held up.

From NYT (July7):
<<
LONDON — Ever since the coronavirus emerged in Europe, Sweden has captured international attention by conducting an unorthodox, open-air experiment. It has allowed the world to examine what happens in a pandemic when a government allows life to carry on largely unhindered.

This is what has happened: Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden’s economy has fared little better.

“They literally gained nothing,” said Jacob F. Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “It’s a self-inflicted wound, and they have no economic gains.”>>

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html
 
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rossel 33 said:
A more relevant comparison than NJ vs Sweden would be to compare Sweden with Norway, Denmark or Finland. From JHU.edu website, # deaths from covid

Sweden (population 10.1m) - 5419 deaths
Denmark (5.8m) - 610
Finland (5.5m) - 328
Norway (5.4m) - 253

Also, the argument that Sweden avoided an economic hit by staying open more than its neighbors doesn't seem to have held up.

From NYT (July7):
<<
LONDON — Ever since the coronavirus emerged in Europe, Sweden has captured international attention by conducting an unorthodox, open-air experiment. It has allowed the world to examine what happens in a pandemic when a government allows life to carry on largely unhindered.

This is what has happened: Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden’s economy has fared little better.

“They literally gained nothing,” said Jacob F. Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “It’s a self-inflicted wound, and they have no economic gains.”>>

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html
Click to expand...

It seems to be difficult for some to separate science and facts from political expediency and fears.

The truth appears to be grasped by about 74% of the US public currently.
 
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rossel 33 said:
You are speaking about flattening the curve regarding slowing the growth in new cases of covid, so as to not overrun the healthcare system. I agree, and that is usually what people are talking about with the phrase flattening the curve.

Originally there was a question by lookleft about numbers of daily deaths. rcamp also brought up whether daily deaths were really increasing in SD.

I was pointing out that in many states daily deaths were indeed on the rise. SD fell into this category...it wasn't just a one day spike. So the shape of the curve of SD's # of daily deaths was going up recently, and hadn't "flattened." That's all. Sorry for the confusion.

Also, no one said SD is a "horrible place." While the numbers for SD are still small, their state population is of course small also, less than a million, less than half of Santa Clara county in CA.

But the larger point is this, even if we take SD out of the question - many other states are seeing daily death rates pick up. New covid cases are going up in many states. And, while not as dramatic, daily deaths are also going up.
Click to expand...

You can’t post a cumulative bar graph as evidence of a curve. That’s the type of “analysis” thats just not helpful.

As you noted, SD is really small. Very difficult to make many statistical conclusions with such small numbers. But, for the record, deaths in SD for the first half of July are less than the last half of June despite having a “spike” of 6 the other day. Discussing SD isn’t a particularly productive use of time.
 
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SPOONER said:
The bigger problem is how much slanting/twisting is happening on both sides of the political isle. Anyone who can’t see that has blinders on.
Click to expand...

No. You are wrong.

The two parties have always been faces of the same coin?

The last three years have seen pure grift and personal gain become the norm in the White House while doing their best to divide the country as they destroy the rule of law.

There has been no coordinated effort to fight the pandemic on a federal level since day one. There has been no responsibility taken at the highest levels for our recovery and well being.

Again, Democrats and Republicans are mostly all beholden to the same corporate powers and the entire political system is corrupt.

But, come on...
 
el dub said:
No. You are wrong.

The two parties have always been faces of the same coin?

The last three years have seen pure grift and personal gain become the norm in the White House while doing their best to divide the country as they destroy the rule of law.

There has been no coordinated effort to fight the pandemic on a federal level since day one. There has been no responsibility taken at the highest levels for our recovery and well being.

Again, Democrats and Republicans are mostly all beholden to the same corporate powers and the entire political system is corrupt.

But, come on...
Click to expand...

You can take up the “who sucks worse” argument with someone else. Both parties were an embarrassment pre-covid and it hasn’t gotten any better for either of them.
 
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lookleft goright said:
You have to figure out who to believe. That is the problem with all of this. Conflicting data.

I can only speak from my personal experience and Covid has had little to no effect on my health or anyone I know. My 80 plus year old Aunt with dementia got infected in a nursing home and she recovers fully. No one else close to me has gotten sick. Naturally, I tend to believe the people saying the numbers are inflated and it is overblown.
Click to expand...
I certainly understand your latter observation - well all tend to overgeneralize our local experience as being true elsewhere. However, why we SELECTIVELY do this is informative. I would assume that most would not get as debative or skeptical if I presented data about a certain type of cancer increasing, just because nobody in your family has cancer. Why? Most tend to accept or give a pass to statistics that support their existing belief or desire, or at least don't conflict with it, and vice versa. Confirmation bias, cognitive dissonance, and all those other things psychologists have demonstrated decades ago.
To your first point, I doubt in this case the problem is conflicting data. Most 'data conflicts' in all these debates are data-belief/desire conflicts, misunderstanding of data, or somebody putting their twisted or cherry picked 'data' out there for the sole purpose of trying to confuse people when the facts start turning not in their favor.
 
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el dub said:
I tend to believe the science and health professionals. NOT the politicians spinning lies to influence the upcoming election.
Click to expand...
The science says that children are very unlikely to suffer any symptoms from the virus. The science says they are unlikely to spread it to adults, even family members. Some politicians say we shouldn't go back to school. So where do you stand now on going back to school?
 
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dciowa said:
Hmmm?

Covid 19 prophylaxis
If HCQ is so bad, then why are all ICU docs at Ben Taub and 3 other Houston Hospitals on hydroxychloroquine prophylaxis???? Research Zelenko and Raoult and Risch people!!! do your homework.

— Brian C. Procter MD (@ProcterMd) July 11, 2020
Click to expand...
I dunno? Because the President told them so? Politicized results? Fringe opinions from social media don't count as homework.
 
lookleft goright said:
The science says that children are very unlikely to suffer any symptoms from the virus. The science says they are unlikely to spread it to adults, even family members. Some politicians say we shouldn't go back to school. So where do you stand now on going back to school?
Click to expand...
You didn't ask me, but I'm FOR going back to school, particularly 6th grade and under, but with extra cautions, especially for the teachers.
 
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grapplefann said:
True, but it got much worse for one of them.
Click to expand...
Which one? The one that said the president was being xenophobic with the travel ban and everyone should go out and gather in NYC without fear? Maybe both sides were misled by the China and the WHO? Who should you trust? A scientist promoting a CNN or Fox agenda? A couple weeks ago CNN claimed there will be no uptick from cases from the "protests." I think any rational person would say thats 100% false.
 
lookleft goright said:
The science says that children are very unlikely to suffer any symptoms from the virus. The science says they are unlikely to spread it to adults, even family members. Some politicians say we shouldn't go back to school. So where do you stand now on going back to school?
Click to expand...

The science on the topic of the situation for the chldren is way too thin. Not enough info yet. Need more time for more accurate results to be proven.

Also, you use the term "unlikely". I think the phrase "less likely" would be more accurate.

Genetics is starting to show up as a possible factor in who gets it bad and who doesn't. Some families have been hit hard with the virus, but not necessarily the spouse as they have a different genetic profile than their husband/wife. Which parent a child favors may indicate how bad or easy a time they may have if they contract the virus.
 
lookleft goright said:
The science says that children are very unlikely to suffer any symptoms from the virus. The science says they are unlikely to spread it to adults, even family members. Some politicians say we shouldn't go back to school. So where do you stand now on going back to school?
Click to expand...
Remember: the study about kids not spreading the virus was based on children under 10 years old. We do not know about kids older than 10. Also this was one small study. Most everyone believes kids should go back to school, but it should happen with reasonable restrictions. There needs to be a plan. Guess what? There is no plan by our government!
 
SPOONER said:
You can’t post a cumulative bar graph as evidence of a curve. That’s the type of “analysis” thats just not helpful.

As you noted, SD is really small. Very difficult to make many statistical conclusions with such small numbers. But, for the record, deaths in SD for the first half of July are less than the last half of June despite having a “spike” of 6 the other day. Discussing SD isn’t a particularly productive use of time.
Click to expand...

Actually the opposite. The cumulative illustration by total deaths over time shows where the death rate has been successfully mitigated. A deeper dive then into if it is because daily positive cases declining or if a different segment of the populace spiking did not result in deaths is then necessary.

The graphs of any cumulative statistic ideally should show a flattening no matter the sample size. This would highlight a sustained control over death rate in this case. Ultimately that is the ideal situation. With additional success in theraputic treatments or a vaccine the graphs would all resemble NY. When total cases flatten the same way it would mean spread is contained/mitigated.

For people who don't deal with graphed datasets often different ways of presenting them can seem counterintuitive but that just means things need explained on how to interpret them. When looking just at the graph often just sitting back patiently and saying why would they (authors of the graph and not the post) be presenting this as valuable is prudent.
 
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el dub said:
No. You are wrong.

The two parties have always been faces of the same coin?

The last three years have seen pure grift and personal gain become the norm in the White House while doing their best to divide the country as they destroy the rule of law.

There has been no coordinated effort to fight the pandemic on a federal level since day one. There has been no responsibility taken at the highest levels for our recovery and well being.

Again, Democrats and Republicans are mostly all beholden to the same corporate powers and the entire political system is corrupt.

But, come on...
Click to expand...


I agree the left have been very active in dividing the country and trying to destroy the rule of law.
 
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thom67 said:
Remember: the study about kids not spreading the virus was based on children under 10 years old. We do not know about kids older than 10. Also this was one small study. Most everyone believes kids should go back to school, but it should happen with reasonable restrictions. There needs to be a plan. Guess what? There is no plan by our government!
Click to expand...
Not "the study", but rather studies in the UK, Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, France, and Iceland plus probably a few others I have forgotten. They are all going back to school.

As a side question, how did school suddenly not become "essential" but pot dispensaries are? These re the types of things that make people not trust the press of the gov't officials.

I can't get over how many people want the gov't to tell them everything to do. Can't the schools and their administrators figure out how to resume classes? Our school district sent out a note today. They said that people have the choice to either do full in person schooling or full online schooling. You know some people are gong to stay home for one reason or another and some people are going to be sending their kids to in person classes. How is it the gov't's responsibility to figure this out for the country and to tell each family what they should do?
 
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lookleft goright said:
The Harvard doctor and the results of his fellow doctors and this study agree. He said it has to be given early, not after people are in the hospital in order to be effective. Sounds like something worth pursuing.
Click to expand...
I didn't see where the this study said that hydrochloroquine had preventative effects, and as far as I could see, they didn't test early pre-hospital infections in this trial. I read that it had no positive effect on Covid-19 in hospitalized patients, but no negative ones either for the most part. That's why they halted clinical trials. As for the "Harvard doctor," who knows. There's lots of doctors from Harvard Med School.
 
el dub said:
It seems to be difficult for some to separate science and facts from political expediency and fears.

The truth appears to be grasped by about 74% of the US public currently.
Click to expand...

Sadly, this explains a lot....

<<White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany on school reopenings: "The science should not stand in the way of this.”>>
 
SPOONER said:
You can’t post a cumulative bar graph as evidence of a curve.

But, for the record, deaths in SD for the first half of July are less than the last half of June despite having a “spike” of 6 the other day. Discussing SD isn’t a particularly productive use of time.
Click to expand...

Disagree.

deaths from covid (covidtracking.com) in SD :

July 1 thru July 16 (noon) = 24 died

last half of June = 16 died

1st half of June = 13 died

Why do you say more died in 2nd half of June than 1st half of July? Source?

And as far as using a cumulative bar graph, one certainly can see evidence of a curve, if you know how to interpret it - just look at the change in slope.
 
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lookleft goright said:
Not "the study", but rather studies in the UK, Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, France, and Iceland plus probably a few others I have forgotten. They are all going back to school.

As a side question, how did school suddenly not become "essential" but pot dispensaries are? These re the types of things that make people not trust the press of the gov't officials.

I can't get over how many people want the gov't to tell them everything to do. Can't the schools and their administrators figure out how to resume classes? Our school district sent out a note today. They said that people have the choice to either do full in person schooling or full online schooling. You know some people are gong to stay home for one reason or another and some people are going to be sending their kids to in person classes. How is it the gov't's responsibility to figure this out for the country and to tell each family what they should do?
Click to expand...
I was only responding to the study that showed that children were less likely to spread the virus.
Also, all those countries who are sending kids back to school have pretty much controlled the spread of Covid by having a government that had a real plan to deal with Covid. They wear masks and test,test, and test, followed by contact tracing.
People do not want government to tell them what to do. People want government to lead them in how to do things and help pay for them. Most school districts do not have the money to make the changes to make going back to school safe. In Europe, their government is leading the schools by helping them with how to make schools safe and helping pay for the changes.
Our government just tells us “just go back to school” with no plan at all and no help.
 
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grapplefann said:
I didn't see where the this study said that hydrochloroquine had preventative effects, and as far as I could see, they didn't test early pre-hospital infections in this trial. I read that it had no positive effect on Covid-19 in hospitalized patients, but no negative ones either for the most part. That's why they halted clinical trials. As for the "Harvard doctor," who knows. There's lots of doctors from Harvard Med School.
Click to expand...
And some recent food for thought. https://www.wired.com/story/hydroxychloroquine-still-doesnt-do-anything-new-data-shows/
 
SPOONER said:
You can take up the “who sucks worse” argument with someone else. Both parties were an embarrassment pre-covid and it hasn’t gotten any better for either of them.
Click to expand...

So, you are OK with the way Trump operates in the White House?

Really?

Because about 74% of Americans currently disagree with that sentiment. The rest are the last standing. On their heads..
 
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