COVID-19 Thread
- Thread starter Kwoodhawk
- Start date
They finally shut all nonessential businesses in Massachusetts. Of course essentials include the liquor stores 
and medical pot stores. No recreational pot, though (sorry Dub ). Wife (no pics) and I are settled in for the long haul, as are all the neighbors. Spirits of everyone are still good unless you're battling for a 12-pack of toilet paper.
I do fear what happens when this virus spreads to the rural areas where medical care is stretched so thin. We're starting to see the weak links in our supply chains and medical systems, and we probably have more medical professionals per capita than almost anywhere. All clear by Easter may be a fantasy, but if we hole up tight right now, we can end this sooner.
Patience everyone. We will get through this.
and medical pot stores. No recreational pot, though (sorry Dub ). Wife (no pics) and I are settled in for the long haul, as are all the neighbors. Spirits of everyone are still good unless you're battling for a 12-pack of toilet paper.I do fear what happens when this virus spreads to the rural areas where medical care is stretched so thin. We're starting to see the weak links in our supply chains and medical systems, and we probably have more medical professionals per capita than almost anywhere. All clear by Easter may be a fantasy, but if we hole up tight right now, we can end this sooner.
Patience everyone. We will get through this.
The entire blog post isn’t fact from the CDC or WHO. The bulk of it isn’t fact at all.
Everything above the chart is fact from the CDC and WHO. Most everything below the chart is the presentation of an opinion based on this person’s logic. That’s where one needs to use a basic BS detector. He’s offered no context as to why his opinions or logic are relevant. He offers no study or supporting evidence for his otherwise anecdotal Diamond Princess theory and why it should be applied to an entire country. Furthermore, he cites no medical sources, no experts or his own expertise in pandemics, no epidemiology, no nothing.
It’s the equivalent of needing legal advice and asking your doctor friend who’s watched every season of Law and Order.
Take a look at this for a more realistic comparison of numbers. Everyone see these numbers by themselves and say "WOW". But the current numbers are not that big. Note the portion below where he states 80% Are naturally immune. Can that be true? Stunning if so.
POSTED ON MARCH 25, 2020 BY JOHN HINDERAKER IN CORONAVIRUS
COVID-19 FATALITIES SO FAR
In anticipation of tonight’s Power Line VIP show, I have updated this simple chart that shows four data points: 1) the average number of fatalities per year, worldwide, attributed to seasonal flu viruses (approximately 468,000); 2) the number of reported COVID-19 fatalities to date, worldwide, per the World Health Organization (18,440); 3) the number of seasonal flu deaths in the U.S. during the 2017-18 season, i.e., two years ago (61,000); and 4) the number of U.S. COVID-19 fatalities to date, as reported by the Centers for Disease Control (737). Click to enlarge:
The Diamond Princess experience–virtually a laboratory experiment–suggests that around 80% of the population is naturally immune to COVID-19, that half the people who get the disease will experience no symptoms, and that in an elderly population, something like 1% of those who contract the disease will die. So far I don’t see anything in the reported U.S. or global fatality numbers to contradict the Diamond Princess experience.
For me the statement that 80% of the population is naturally immune is a big red flag and doesn't pass a common sense test.
Data collected from some of the studies recently published show that aprroximately 30% of the people infected are asymptomatic (no symptoms), 56% have mild/moderate symptoms, 10% have severe symptoms and require hospitalization but recover, and 4% are critical and end up dying.
Current Worldwide statistics right now tonight are 468,523 confirmed cases with 21,192 deaths which translates to 4.52% real time deaths. Not 1%
Italy is suffering immensely with a very high fatality rate of 10.08%. And that might be understated by quite a bit. The US in contrast is only 1.43% which is still higher than the above mentioned 1%
On the Diamond Princess IIRC they didn't test a lot of those people initially because many had no symptoms. However some were eventually tested later on and they tested positive yet still had no symptoms. I think that was the beginning of the realization of how many people were asymptomatic.
CDC numbers show the 2018-2019 estimates for the US were 34,157 deaths with 35,520,883 infections for a fatality rate of 0.096%. Just under 0.1% while current real time numbers of actual deaths from COVID-19 is running at 4.52% as shown above. 45 times more fatal than the flu.
And for the medical system, they are already copeing with a stong flu season going on. Then you add this new virus ON TOP of the already existing flu cases and the potential to really crash the system becomes very real.
The "80% are immune" statement rings hollow. How did the author know that? Did he assume that because 80% of passengers didn't catch Covid-19?
Having 80% of the ship's passengers not get infected with Covid-19 does NOT mean they were immune. It just means they didn't catch it. Social distancing, sanitizers, etc., may have kept them from getting it. That's not the same thing as immunity.
Immunity and asymptomatic are two different things. Many of the passengers were asymptomatic. Not necessarily immune.
If that was months ago, it sounds like we are talking about the year 1 B.C.
This was NYC's Public Health Commissioner in early February. Likely a politically correct response to Trump's quarantine order for those coming from China and his travel "ban."
This was Mark Levine, a councilman who is the Chair of NYC Health Committee.
This was put out by Politico after Trump's actions in early February. It started like this: "The Trump administration’s quarantine and travel ban in response to the Wuhan coronavirus could undercut international efforts to fight the outbreak by antagonizing Chinese leaders, as well as stigmatizing people of Asian descent, according to a growing chorus of public health experts and lawmakers."
It also quoted "World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Tuesday that widespread travel bans and restrictions weren’t needed to stop the outbreak." The general theme of the article is that Trump is overreacting, pissing off China, and could be violating civil liberties complete with quotes from healthcare experts...and the ever present hint of racism against Asians. I remember similar reactions. This, just after what seemed like sensible precautions.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/04/coronavirus-quaratine-travel-110750
None of this is meant to exonerate or prove Trump right or wrong. I'm sure one could produce a trove of data of Orange Man buffoonery as it relates to Covid. It only serves to remind folks that the "experts" were also asleep at the wheel but now seem to be acting as if they were the Cassandras in this whole deal. Seems to me that the western world put this on ignore until the fit hit the shan in Italy.
This was Mark Levine, a councilman who is the Chair of NYC Health Committee.
This was put out by Politico after Trump's actions in early February. It started like this: "The Trump administration’s quarantine and travel ban in response to the Wuhan coronavirus could undercut international efforts to fight the outbreak by antagonizing Chinese leaders, as well as stigmatizing people of Asian descent, according to a growing chorus of public health experts and lawmakers."
It also quoted "World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Tuesday that widespread travel bans and restrictions weren’t needed to stop the outbreak." The general theme of the article is that Trump is overreacting, pissing off China, and could be violating civil liberties complete with quotes from healthcare experts...and the ever present hint of racism against Asians. I remember similar reactions. This, just after what seemed like sensible precautions.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/04/coronavirus-quaratine-travel-110750
None of this is meant to exonerate or prove Trump right or wrong. I'm sure one could produce a trove of data of Orange Man buffoonery as it relates to Covid. It only serves to remind folks that the "experts" were also asleep at the wheel but now seem to be acting as if they were the Cassandras in this whole deal. Seems to me that the western world put this on ignore until the fit hit the shan in Italy.
Though we are in agreement about the blog post in question, in the spirit of fairness, your 4% and his 1% are apples to oranges data points.
First, I think you mean political INcorrectness, and not just because they were so wrong. But also because these people shouldn’t be using social media to make political statements. Second, no doubt that people in medicine aren’t always right either. But I’d guess these two individuals aren’t experts in the area of viral infections and pandemics simply because they might be a doctor or work in a medical field. Regardless, it’s also why panels of experts work on these things not just one person.
until they know the true number of people that have covid19 antibodies in their system can the true level of danger be known?...... hyrdrowhatever is being used alot in the other countries and they fear a shortage as it is getting asked for alot. i heard a couple big pharmas are amping up the supply. that doesn't sound like something that isn't effective. i am not a doctor..... seems to me there would be doctors records for people who had flu symptems or felt sick for a few days say since dec.1 2019 to present and test them all for antibodies. that might be a drive-thru possibility. the country is about to be shut down without the true number of people getting the virus vs. death numbers.
Some gallows humor for you clowns:
If scientists don't develope a vaccine soon...........
Mothers stuck at home for months on end with their children will develope one soon enough..........
Apples to oranges? I seriously have no idea what you are thinking here. Why are those two data points not comparable?
His (baseless?) claim was that 1% of an “elderly population” would die after contracting and you’re comparing that to the number of deaths among those who have tested positive. That isn’t the same thing.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t know where his 1% comes from or the definition of “elderly population.”
Having 80% not catch it gives the impression that it is not as contagious as people are making it out to be. That is a big deal, because a lot of the precautions are put in place because of how "contagious" it is supposed to be.
Now someone did say that many of those people just did not have symptoms (which seems to be the same thing as immune in my book). I do not know if a person who has the virus but it is having no effect keeps it in their system as long as a person with symptoms and therefore can pass it along easily or not.
Also, 1 thing I was thinking is that being on a cruise ship would probably mean that people were exposed to a lot of sunshine - natural killer of the virus. This could also make for the low infection rate. That can offer some hope for this situation. As we get more into spring and we get more sunshine, the virus will be killed/controlled by mother nature. Of course, it will or can resurface next fall as we get less sunshine.
Thanks for responding in a thoughtful way. I appreciate the conversation and bouncing around of thoughts.
The British Government has downgraded the Coronavirus from being an acute infectious disease with a high case-fatality rate. After reviewing the data, they have come to their senses. Moreover, a study released by Oxford finds that perhaps 50% of those in the UK have the virus and the overwhelming number experience it like the normal flu and have little symptoms.
The asymptomatic (no symptoms) people have been shown to have a very high viral load. Meaning they are more infectious to others and carry the virus easily without suffering effects on themselves. Probably more likely to be less careful about quarantine and social distancing since they are without symptoms and may not even know they have the virus.
Is it just me? It seems like for every health professional that says this could be a disaster there is another one stating that it is not as bad as everyone thinks it is so who is right? I guess we will find out in the long run. I am generally not a conspiracy theorist but sometimes sh!t just doesnt add up.
the next week will give the answer to that, especially if hospitals start filling up. NYC, NO, and ATL are already struggling
These are vague statements. "It's not as bad as everyone thinks." What does that mean? What does everyone think? Are they talking about infections? Death? Available hospital beds? The whole key is the latter--preventing the shutdown of the healthcare system is the absolute #1 reason we are taking these steps. I haven't seen many health professionals claim we are out of the woods on that.
The first part of this article givess a pretty clear, logical easy to understand look at the numbers and what is currently happening, could happen and hopefully will not happen with COVID-19
The second part is stock market related so not part of this thread discussion.
Salient points in the article:
As March began there were 68 cases in the US. Currently 68,000 (actual today-69,684) a 1,000 fold increase in cases in less than a month.
The US rate of infections was running at 30%, now dropping to 29%.
At a 10% infection rate from this 68,000 case number the US would have over a Million cases sometime in April. At a 15% rate the US would have 4.5 Million cases in 30 days.
He doesn"t show what the current 29% rate would turn into.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc200326/
The second part is stock market related so not part of this thread discussion.
Salient points in the article:
As March began there were 68 cases in the US. Currently 68,000 (actual today-69,684) a 1,000 fold increase in cases in less than a month.
The US rate of infections was running at 30%, now dropping to 29%.
At a 10% infection rate from this 68,000 case number the US would have over a Million cases sometime in April. At a 15% rate the US would have 4.5 Million cases in 30 days.
He doesn"t show what the current 29% rate would turn into.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc200326/
One of the tricky things we're finding out is that a huge portion of people who have the virus are asymptomatic (up to 50% in some testing areas). This is really problematic because they'll spread it unknowingly without strong social distancing policies. Whether you'll be asymptomatic if you get it is completely unpredictable. You could have a husband-wife, both same age, both physically fit with no other high risk factor conditions. The husband brings it home from the store, passes it to his wife, and is asymptomatic. The wife ends up on a ventilator.
Some are now talking about the economy being more important, and that the added deaths are a necessary sacrifice to prevent a recession. I think this is foolish both logically and morally. Morally, this is putting the profits of a few over the physical lives of our loved ones. That 2.5-3% is your mother, your grandmother, your sister, etc... Are you willing to sacrifice them (or yourself) for shareholder profits? Logically, I also think it's foolish. If we go back to work as normal, and as a result, a few million die, do you think the economy is going to react well to that?
The whole thing is also a false dichotomy. The successful nations (South Korea for example) haven't had to shut down their economy because they handled this competently from the beginning through extensive testing, They also have generous quarantine conditions provided by the state, and a healthcare system that doesn't disincentivize treatment seeking through high costs as ours does. Their testing system is identifying asymptomatic carriers and quarantining them, which is how they are able to keep their economy running safely.
We often call ourselves the greatest country in the world. It would be nice if we started acting like it.
Some are now talking about the economy being more important, and that the added deaths are a necessary sacrifice to prevent a recession. I think this is foolish both logically and morally. Morally, this is putting the profits of a few over the physical lives of our loved ones. That 2.5-3% is your mother, your grandmother, your sister, etc... Are you willing to sacrifice them (or yourself) for shareholder profits? Logically, I also think it's foolish. If we go back to work as normal, and as a result, a few million die, do you think the economy is going to react well to that?
The whole thing is also a false dichotomy. The successful nations (South Korea for example) haven't had to shut down their economy because they handled this competently from the beginning through extensive testing, They also have generous quarantine conditions provided by the state, and a healthcare system that doesn't disincentivize treatment seeking through high costs as ours does. Their testing system is identifying asymptomatic carriers and quarantining them, which is how they are able to keep their economy running safely.
We often call ourselves the greatest country in the world. It would be nice if we started acting like it.
Great article to submit. I like the way the guy thinks.
Of course, we get back to the same argument. Suspected RO of __. Mortality rate believed to be in the __ range.
Also, lets put these graphs up to a graph of the regular flu. How does anyone think a graph of starting at 0 flu cases and going to 33,000,000 flu cases and back to 0 would look over a 4-5 month period. Thats the case with the typical flu. We get these pictures and statements, but the numbers for a regular flu are mind blowing. A 1000 fold increase in a month is not that big of a deal when starting from zero. Like the Aids virus, we were always told "if it continues at this rate...." Things never continue at "that" rate for long.
It is the unknowns the cause me to feel the world's reaction is a bit over the top. When you look at how the politicians have tried to use the corona crisis to further their agendas, is it so hard to think they would try to fabricate a crisis?
We may never agree on this Kwood and quite honestly, I am not sure who I hope is right. If I am right, then we are being assaulted from with in by people who want to take away as much freedom as possible and are using a fabricated crisis to gain controlling measures. Whatever they may be.
If you are right, then I am glad that I at least obeyed the orders and I can have some faith in the news media and our politicians again.
The hospitalization rate for the flu is something like 0.05% of those who test positive. This is why there's little to no concern about the flu overrunning up our healthcare system. Hospitalization rates for those with a positive Covoid 19 tests are around 10%. It's abundantly clear this isn't the flu.
I like where your heart is but at the end of the day we don't bring the world to a halt because there's a small number of people who might die without proper care. Once we are at the point where we are confident the healthcare system can reasonably handle covoid 19 cases, we need to start lifing restrictions. Jobs are important for our health--they provide for the essentials of life. Shareholder value? That's not a big concern.
I don't know when that is but I highly doubt it's Easter.
Actually I hope you are right as that means the fatality projections never occur. We can all get together at the bar during next NCAA and laugh about what an overblown hysteria we just went thru.
The real problem is that no one knows if that is right or not. And it does look like with mathmatical calculations it would not take much to overwhelm the Hospitals and such.
Remember the fatality rate as well as infection rate with COVID-19 is quite a bit worse than the regular flu, so the exponential growth rate with flu is not as big a deal to the Healthcare system since most people are treated at home and recover.
Hence the need to take whatever precautions we can to try and reduce chances that the BIG numbers might manifest.
I hope the BIG numbers are wrong and we get this under control, but we need to be aware and prepare that they might be right.
The thing that really hit home with this for me was when I read that some of the Dr. and Nurses up in Washington State started updating their wills and who would inherit and take care of their families if they didn't make it thru the outbreak. I still tear up thinking of them.
After reading that......nothing else mattered except to take this pandemic seriously and take whatever personal steps I could to limit exposure and transmission to support those Health Care workers on the front lines.
Stay safe everyone.
Saw a couple weeks ago that round trip flights from Europe to Rio De Janeiro were about $300. Bet they are much cheaper now.
Saw on one of the big 3 news channels today the hospitals in New York are getting more younger people in far worse condition than they were at the front end of this. So while those diagnosed in quarantine at home are following medical advice we are faced with unintended consequences of that advice. I am just highlighting how much not ahead of this outbreak we are analytically. I also don't mean that critically but rather we need to understand we are in the game thread stage still and not even to the Monday morning QB stage.
Until we have a reliable fast test widely available and medical facilities at least having a reliable supply of PPE I don't see schools, restaurants, bars, sporting events etc being allowed to resume as normal. Our daily pin drop of how far we travel outside of our bubble needs to slowly grow as we feel risks abating and not jump into recreational travel or activities with the exception related to health.
Do you open gyms or restaurants first? Retail or schools? Opening anything due to collective cabin fever will cause a flood if it isn't done with restraint and a stepped plan.
Until we have a reliable fast test widely available and medical facilities at least having a reliable supply of PPE I don't see schools, restaurants, bars, sporting events etc being allowed to resume as normal. Our daily pin drop of how far we travel outside of our bubble needs to slowly grow as we feel risks abating and not jump into recreational travel or activities with the exception related to health.
Do you open gyms or restaurants first? Retail or schools? Opening anything due to collective cabin fever will cause a flood if it isn't done with restraint and a stepped plan.
FDA approves a new device under emergency use authorization that allows one ventialtor to be used on 4 patients.
https://t.co/SMcwkFs12z?amp=1
Can be made with 3D printing technology.
https://t.co/SMcwkFs12z?amp=1
Can be made with 3D printing technology.
Is this in the past 2 weeks? I saw a couple health professionals downplaying it before it really hit in the US, but since then it seems most that I've seen are saying it's serious. I've seen tons of pleas from health professionals telling people to stay home and begging for donations of protective equipment.
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