For all the Democratic excitement, Trump is still the favorite

[artradley]

Poll show Harris with only a 2.5% lead nationwide, which will not get it done with our electoral system. Trump may have a ceiling, but the floor is right below it, and the floor is absurdly high.

Nearly half of all Americans will vote for Teump no matter what . So he can stumble around the country spewing nonsense and transparent lies; it just doesn’t matter.

Turnout is the only thing that can save us from another four years.

 

[thewop]

The same is true of any candidate with a D by their name. This is decided in the middle, which is VERY small.

It more highlights tribal division than any sort of popularity of a specific candidate.

 

[BrianNole777]

Poll show Harris with only a 2.5% lead nationwide, which will not get it done with our electoral system. Trumpmay have a ceiling, but the floor is right below it, and the floor is absurdly high.

Nearly half of all A Erica s will vote for Teump no matter what . So he can stumble around the country spewing nonsense and transparent lies; it just doesn’t matter.

Turnout is the only thing that can save us from another four years.

What about the battleground states?

 

[Chishawk1425]

 

[RagnarLothbrok]

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Other polls show different trends.

OP is right.

And Harris is not a great candidate no matter how you slice it. She was chosen by Biden because she checked the right DEI boxes.

So, don’t get so cocky. Just because the Republican Party is a shit show right now doesn’t make your party good. If it weren’t for Trump, there’s no way in hell I would be voting for Kamala.

 

[Huey Grey]

Trump is definitely not the favorite. Dude is on pace to get routed.

 

[Phenomenally Frantastic]

This
is
why
Trump
has
any
chance
at
all.

 

[millah_22]

This
is
why
Trump
has
any
chance
at
all.

View embedded media

Worked well last time, too

BTW who was President May 29, 2020?

 

[Phenomenally Frantastic]

Trump is definitely not the favorite. Dude is on pace to get routed.

The DNC selected the most unpopular VP in American history.

 

[Phenomenally Frantastic]

 

[Hawked]

Worked well last time, too

BTW who was President May 29, 2020?

Right. Who was president during covid and BLM riots? Why did trump let those cities burn just like he did the capitol?

 

[bhawk24bob]

I believe there is a sizeable contingent of Trump voters that don't broadcast it, won't engage in a debate, don't care what comes through the media or gets posted on twitter, definitely don't want to be professionally canceled by getting their picture taken at a Trump rally, etc......but will show up on voting day and choose Trump.

 

[Phenomenally Frantastic]

*Murder and Mayhem occurs*

Kamala’s response:



She sounds deranged in retrospect. Completely irresponsible.

 

[Huey Grey]

The DNC selected the most unpopular VP in American history.

View embedded media

This stuff is from four years ago. Right now she is beating Trump in popularity. And Walz is killing Vance in it. It's weird how selective you are in which numbers you will accept.

 

[Funky Bunch]

PredictIt

www.predictit.org

 

[millah_22]

This stuff is from four years ago. Right now she is beating Trump in popularity. And Walz is killing Vance in it. It's weird how selective you are in which numbers you will accept.

It's not weird at all. It's human to only like things that make you feel good and secure.

 

[Chishawk1425]

This stuff is from four years ago. Right now she is beating Trump in popularity. And Walz is killing Vance in it. It's weird how selective you are in which numbers you will accept.

This

 

[millah_22]

 

[Phenomenally Frantastic]

PredictIt

www.predictit.org

If only popular opinion on obscure websites determined elections.

 

[95Hawk]

The DNC selected the most unpopular VP in American history.

View embedded media

Such a dumb statement to make….”most unpopular VP…”. It’s taking a Trump talking point and accepting it as gospel.

Which is an idiotic thing to do, but we’re talking PF here.

Like Dan Quayle or Dick Cheney never existed.

Kamala Harris: Most unpopular vice president since polling began?

At their peak, the unfavorability ratings of Republican vice presidents Dan Quayle and Dick Cheney exceeded that of Kamala Harris.

wisconsinwatch.org

 

[Phenomenally Frantastic]

Save Democracy.

 

[Chishawk1425]

 

[Chishawk1425]

 

[Huey Grey]

If only popular opinion on obscure websites determined elections.

Trump lost the popular vote by 3 million in 2016 and lost the popular vote by 8 million in 2020. He is now 80 in 2024, a felon, a rapist, and facing an opponent far younger and more energetic than him, crushing him in money, popularity, crowd sizes, and beating him in both the national and state polls. Reality says that Trump is in serious trouble here.

 

[Here_4_a_Day]

Hilary is still up 12 points!! Recall that gem on the eve of the election?!?!?! 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣

 

[artradley]

Trump is definitely not the favorite. Dude is on pace to get routed.

That is wishful thinking with no metrics to support it. Significant traditional battleground states, such as Ohio and Florida, are now solid red.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

The same is true of any candidate with a D by their name. This is decided in the middle, which is VERY small.

It more highlights tribal division than any sort of popularity of a specific candidate.

Doesn’t help with those middle votes that Harris is proposing price controls.

 

[artradley]

I believe there is a sizeable contingent of Trump voters that don't broadcast it, won't engage in a debate, don't care what comes through the media or gets posted on twitter, definitely don't want to be professionally canceled by getting their picture taken at a Trump rally, etc......but will show up on voting day and choose Trump.

On HORT, with a demographic that is easily 65% consecutive/Republican, only 10% will admit they’re voting for him.

 

[Huey Grey]

That is wishful thinking with no metrics to support it. Significant traditional battleground states, such as Ohio and Florida, are now solid red.

I spelled out many the metrics in my above post. Trump is facing insanely big headwinds. And we haven't even touched on his endless legal troubles. He is ripe to get destroyed in November.

 

[artradley]

Doesn’t help with those middle votes that Harris is proposing price controls.

Funny how you don’t mention anything Trump is saying that should alienate people in the middle.

 

[Huey Grey]

On HORT, with a demographic that is easily 65% consecutive/Republican, only 10% will admit they’re voting for him.

His fundraising is anemic. He has lost nearly 8 points in the polls, his crowd sizes are smaller than Walz's. Everytime he speaks he creates gaffes. At this point it's wishful thinking on your part thinking he's still leading.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Funny how you don’t mention anything Trump is saying that should alienate people in the middle.

Why should I? I agree with your assertion that he has hard ceiling because he does a plethora of things that turn off the middle.

Harris should be aiming for those votes…proposing brain dead policy like price controls isn’t helpful on that front.

Do you favor price controls?

 

[Huey Grey]

Why should I? I agree with your assertion that he has hard ceiling because he does a plethora of things that turn off the middle.

Harris should be aiming for those votes…proposing brain dead policy like price controls isn’t helpful on that front.

Do you favor price controls?

This price control complaint is moronic. Even Trump talks about "price controls." He's doing it right now with him trying to take credit for $35 insulin.

 

[nu2u]

That is wishful thinking with no metrics to support it. Significant traditional battleground states, such as Ohio and Florida, are now solid red.

Florida is NOT solid red. Step back from the razor cabinet.

 

[Uniformed_ReRe]

View embedded media

Take that guy's tweets with a grain of salt. He is a total cheerleader.

 

[CarolinaHawkeye]

Save Democracy.

View embedded media

Keep you fascists out of office.

 

[Huey Grey]

Florida is NOT solid red. Step back from the razor cabinet.

He's only up 4 points in Florida right now. If that's considered solid red, Trump is in serious trouble.

 

[Uniformed_ReRe]

Florida is NOT solid red. Step back from the razor cabinet.

Trump currently has about a 5 percent lead in Florida. He'll probably win the state, but Florida is hardly "solid red."

 

[artradley]

Florida is NOT solid red. Step back from the razor cabinet.

Trump leads by 4.6%.
Two GOP Senators
GOP governor
Two thirds of the state legislature is GOP

By what definition is Florida not solid red?

 

[pjhawk]

That is wishful thinking with no metrics to support it. Significant traditional battleground states, such as Ohio and Florida, are now solid red.

That's reflective more of an ongoing demographic realignment. Formerly solid red states like Georgia and Arizona are now battleground states. Could probably throw North Carolina into that category as well. Virginia and Colorado are now regarded as solid blue.

I think Dem overconfidence is a potential issue, but the electoral college map is probably more of a problem for the Republicans this year than for the Dems, more paths for the Dems to win. The 538 predictor was still giving Trump only a 51% chance of winning the election when they suspended it after Biden dropped out of the race

And I'm really really going to be irritated when I see the posts from the idiot wannabe ultra-hip, ultra-savvy people around here who talk about their vote "not counting" because they live in either a solid blue or solid red state. Let alone the down ballot races, Harris's national popular vote margin needs to be as large as possible to maybe, just maybe convince the bulk of the Republican party that they can't win national elections with Trump and Trumpism at the top of the ticket. A truly decisive defeat may be the only shot for the Republicans to reform themselves.