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HOLY S%$T!! Harris 47 Trump 44, Final Selzer IOWA POLL!

This Day In History - 3 Days to Election
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It might be wrong Gus….but it sure as hell got your attention! ;)
Because it shows how flawed these polls are. One thing we ought to have learned from the last few elections, these polls might just as well be a big guess for as close as they end of being at the end of the day.

I'm fully prepared for a surprise Harris win. Just not in Iowa. I would actually be shocked if that happened.
 
The poll is dead wrong. I'll bet anyone on here 200$ Trump wins Iowa.
Oh I think most here still expect that as well. This is just an extremely interesting poll from someone who has a very good track record of accuracy with her polls. She had a similar one for example in ‘20 that had trump winning comfortably in Iowa, and Wisconsin would be much closer than most pollsters were predicting.

If trump wins Iowa by the same margin as four years ago, this poll would have to be more than 10 points off; and she’s never been off by more than 5.

I take all of this with a grain of salt, and expect a nail biter ultimately, but this still is quite interesting.
 
Because it shows how flawed these polls are. One thing we ought to have learned from the last few elections, these polls might just as well be a big guess for as close as they end of being at the end of the day.

I'm fully prepared for a surprise Harris win. Just not in Iowa. I would actually be shocked if that happened.
Most polls are flawed…However, the Iowa Polls that Selzer conducts have been uncannily accurate over the past 4-5 election cycles….She KNOWS Iowa better than any others….and her results speak for themselves….I too would be shocked if Harris wins Iowa…..but I am equally surprised this race is going to be as close as this with Harris even having a “puncher’s chance”…..I think you misinterpret how out of favor Trump is with women…of all political persuasions…and Iowa women can be “independent” as hell when encouraged.
Checks out Selzer/Iowa Poll results regarding Presidential elections, Senatorial elections and Congressional elections since 2012….You might be impressed. Selzer has recently tied herself with Grinnell College and started polling issues of a more regional and national nature.
 
Suspicious….



“They also noted that Selzer hides her crosstabs from the public - does not display the party affiliation and other key information about who participates.

"Unlike Emerson which transparently reports its share of partisans and the 2020 vote recall, Des Moines Register does NOT disclose the distribution of this information, even though they asked it in their survey."



Why does Selzer hide her data from scrutiny?
 
Suspicious….



“They also noted that Selzer hides her crosstabs from the public - does not display the party affiliation and other key information about who participates.

"Unlike Emerson which transparently reports its share of partisans and the 2020 vote recall, Des Moines Register does NOT disclose the distribution of this information, even though they asked it in their survey."



Why does Selzer hide her data from scrutiny?
Oh for FFS, you're beyond parody at this point.
 
Rico….can you help me out…I need two rides to different polls….I gots to use all my official Iowa Voter IDs….so can you help a bro out? Any time after 10am Tuesday will work for me….
Joel, can you help me out? I forgot my secret Soros code and I've only voted 5 out of the 10 times I need to win the big bonus. Appreciated!
 
Suspicious….



“They also noted that Selzer hides her crosstabs from the public - does not display the party affiliation and other key information about who participates.

"Unlike Emerson which transparently reports its share of partisans and the 2020 vote recall, Des Moines Register does NOT disclose the distribution of this information, even though they asked it in their survey."



Why does Selzer hide her data from scrutiny?
Because he chooses too? Does this “factoid” diminish her accuracy in polling Iowans over the years?

Selzer is a regular guest during Iowa political campaigns on IPBN’s “Iowa Press” over the years. She explains her “process” in general terms but does not talk specifics about her methodology….afterall she obviously does things others don’t that makes her polling decidedly more accurate than her competition. She rightly stands on her record..which over the years is quite accurate in measuring the sentiments of the Iowa voter. These “complaints” sound like “sour grapes” to those of us familiar with Selzer and her polls.
 
I am not familiar with Soros…and his code. Sorry. Are we still “on” for Tuesday?
Got it Joel, had to think about it for a minute, but Thanks Bro! Gonna get the down payment on the new McMansion taken care of now, cool!
 
I’m in NE Iowa now. WAY more Harris signs than Biden 4 years ago. It was 50-50 on the drive from CR through Maquoketa to Dubuque
A few weeks ago I visited my old hometown. I was surprised at the number of Harris signs in Republican Pella front yards on the towns west and north sides (prime Republican area). There were almost as many of her signs posted as there were Trump signs… and there were not as many yard signs visible as in past election years. Pella is pretty solidly “red”…60-70%, anyway.
 
There has been an active effort by the Trump campaign and likely foreign actors to manipulate the polling averages in order to sell the Big Lie 2.0. It's like the Trump campaign knew they had no shot and their only option was to try and steal it. Or get rubes to think the election isn't legitimate. You are doing Putin's work. Nice job.
 
I hate Trump with all my heart. But, Trump is winning Iowa and the country. Our country is dumb and f'd.
 
Selzer claims Seniors (Age 65+) in Iowa breaking +19 (55-36) for Harris is sketchy as hell.
I will agree that her polling is not as transparent as others. However her record is outstanding. It would be an odd choice to throw all of that credibility away now but I guess we'll find out how accurate she is this week.
 
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I would think it will be even more of a reason for republicans to go out and vote.
Lol that conservatives will react logically, or even rationally. No way Trump loses Iowa, it no way he and his millions of supporters don’t claim fraud if he does.

He has claimed fraud since the first Iowa caucus in 2016.
 
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