Pretty wild how those models divert into complete uncertainty after the storm gets north of Georgia...
Hurricane season has arrived....
- Thread starter The Tradition
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Pretty wild how those models divert into complete uncertainty after the storm gets north of Georgia...
The 5 o'clock "cone of death" shows the center line tracking right over Tally.
I want pics from any of our Tallahassee residents if you're unfortunate enough to get the opportunity stand in the eye.
I want pics from any of our Tallahassee residents if you're unfortunate enough to get the opportunity stand in the eye.
I see the GFS has lowered the intensity at landfall from 950 milibars to 975. That's the difference between a Cat 3 and 1. I wonder how long it's going to take for the NHC to follow suit.
#Helene is steadily becoming better organized this afternoon as deep convective bands begin encircling the center in more symmetric fashion than previously. Buoy 42056 reveals a sharp pressure fall, with central pressure likely 993-994mb now. An inner core max wind band may not yet be well-developed, but will likely follow in the near-future. The timing of the inner core formation is tied to the timing of peak intensification rates.
These trends suggest that Helene is beginning to take advantage of an increasingly favorable environment as it approaches the Yucatan Channel, and risks to northern #Florida and southern #Georgia are growing. Hurricane Warnings have been issued, including inland portions of the Florida Panhandle. Hurricane Watches extend into inland Georgia. With a high-end storm surge and wind event expected, hopefully residents are taking this storm seriously.
Tropical Thoughts on Helene:
1. NO changes to the 5pm track. Models are still locked in on the panhandle...and so am I. It appears very unlikely (not impossible) but very unlikely Helene will make landfall in the Bay Area. As you may have noticed, we are no longer in the cone of uncertainty.
2. While we may not see landfall here, impacts will still be high. While I expect SUSTAINED hurricane-force winds will remain offshore, we will still see several hours of gusts to near hurricane-force on Thursday afternoon and evening. Inland areas will see less wind and rain. And what is a lower threat to our area, unfortunately, the risk continues to grow for the panhandle and the "BIg Bend" area. Helene is expected to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall Thursday evening.
3. The entire Gulf Coast of Florida is under a "Storm Surge Warning". Surge is NOT caused by rainfall. It's water pushed by the storm. Helene is a very large system and will push a lot of water. Surge levels are expected to rival Idalia and ETA in some spots. Check the map listed for areas that may impact you. If you don't live near the water, you will not see surge.
4. Let's talk about landfall. Students at Florida State University and Florida A&M University are expected to be close to landfall. I can't suggest whether or not you have friends, family, and kids evacuate ahead of Helene, but I will advise you that if they ARE going to "get out of Dodge", they need to have that travel completed by tomorrow afternoon. You won't want to be on the roads on Thursday. As for University of Florida, University of South Florida, and University of Central Florida students, at this point, evacuations don't appear necessary. Don't get me wrong, they could still get winds of 65(ish) mph with power outages, but the type of damaging winds the panhandle could see will be very different.
5. So here's the bottom line. Unless there is a drastic change (which is always possible, but unlikely) this is a storm with a track heading to the panhandle. Our Thursday will see winds of 65 mph, heavy rains, storm surge levels of 5-8 feet and isolated tornadoes. And even with all that, if it plays out that way, we should consider ourselves VERY fortunate. Helene will become a large powerful hurricane that will cause extensive impacts to our friends and family North of the Bay Area.
6. One last thing, and I swear I'm not just "covering by rear end", until we see where this actually bypass the Bay Area, don't let your guard down. I'm feeling very confident in this forecast, but it IS Florida Weather. Enough said.
Here in Ft Myers it feels like we dodged a bullet. But we said that about Ian before it hit us with a hard right hook.
So effing Cantore is in my home county, and the projected path is headed right at my sons in Tally. 🙄
DPL - Tampa weatherman Denis Phillips Tuesday night webcast. He has a son at FSU so he always provides Tallahassee hurricane coverage
That’s the worst part, any moment that thing can drastically change direction and suddenly you’re in the crosshairs. I hate to pray it stays on it’s current path as there’s others that will suffer, but I’m praying it does.
Over here in Jax we’re expecting 6-8 inches of rain and winds of around 30-40 mph in gusts.
Tallahassee will get a serious situation and I expect power outages of a week in some areas. The issue in Tally is that they are a city of “canopy” trees which are beautiful but have a tendency to take out power lines.
The area where I-75 intersects with I-10 has smaller towns with farms and huge solar fields owned by Florida Power and Light where farms used to be. I hope those don’t suffer a lot of damage or we’ll find out how people feel about solar power real quick.
FSU closes tomorrow morning and will resume classes on Monday. Students are heading elsewhere - I would presume some left today - it’s not going to be great driving on the interstates.
Fingers crossed for the Forgotten Coast. Shell Point beach houses built on stilts 30 feet up still might not make it. Love that place. No tourists.
Tallahassee will get a serious situation and I expect power outages of a week in some areas. The issue in Tally is that they are a city of “canopy” trees which are beautiful but have a tendency to take out power lines.
The area where I-75 intersects with I-10 has smaller towns with farms and huge solar fields owned by Florida Power and Light where farms used to be. I hope those don’t suffer a lot of damage or we’ll find out how people feel about solar power real quick.
FSU closes tomorrow morning and will resume classes on Monday. Students are heading elsewhere - I would presume some left today - it’s not going to be great driving on the interstates.
Fingers crossed for the Forgotten Coast. Shell Point beach houses built on stilts 30 feet up still might not make it. Love that place. No tourists.
It’s aiming for one of the least populated areas in the state. Just a little more west and it’s mostly national/state forests.
That is some very tight modeling. Terrible for Tallahassee. We have a hotel for Thursday-Sunday and I will be taking pictures of the house and yard today, knowing that bad things are going to happen to my property and there is nothing I can do about it. Way too many trees in my yard, many that can hit the house.
Tallahassee will likely not be the same due to how many trees we have. It’s definitely our hallmark - canopy roads and very few houses that have clear cut yards with most having the tall pines, live oaks and beach magnolia hardwood types densely present on their properties and neighborhoods. It will be until Thanksgiving before we cut ourselves out and have it all off streets and yards.
For those on the Iowa side of family tree unfamiliar with Tallahassee, this is a view from tallest building in town to the north of downtown. About 150k people live in that “forest” in the background.
60-70 percent of those trees will be gone in Cat 3-4 storm….
It is a major bad shift for Tallahassee not so much in landfall but direction. Has it going NNW over downtown and NE quad over most populated residential area. God this is bad.
You gonna stay in town. My brother on the NE side is stubborn, but we hope he will skedaddle.
Yeah staying in the new Drury Inn Thursday-Sunday night. About mile from the house. It will be safe and we can use as base camp for damage survey and cleanup.
Made reservations just in time Monday.
We need Trump to draw a corrected path for the hurricane. I don't like the current path.
Just curious, why would the hotel be better if it's 1 mile away?
Pleasant surprise last night while watching tv...headlights pulling into the driveway, my sons and the younger's girlfriend decided to come home when they got news that school was closed for the rest of the week & the projected path continued to have Tally in the crosshairs.
I'll admit that they may have more common sense than their dad - when I was there, I'd have been looking forward to the massive hurricane parties that were sure to unfold. I have vague memories of jumping off the 10 meter platform into the Uni pool during one storm; a big oak had fallen & taken out the fence, so we all assumed that the lack of fencing meant the pool was open.
Likely less overhead tree canopy and less power line damage, again due to canopy.
The lines literally run between tree limbs in a lot of areas there.
I fly back to Tallahassee today. I’ll secure the things my no pic wife and son didn’t get done, pick up my prescriptions and we’re likely heading west. Not sure where yet, but at least Pensacola.
We are looking at a possible foot of rain on steep slopes in the WNC mountains in the aftermath. People will likely die in our area due to flooding.
Check the link below for a look at Cedar Rapids pre and post derecho back in 2017. Slider view so you can see before and after pics of the canopies. It's pretty amazing what heavy winds can do.That is some very tight modeling. Terrible for Tallahassee. We have a hotel for Thursday-Sunday and I will be taking pictures of the house and yard today, knowing that bad things are going to happen to my property and there is nothing I can do about it. Way too many trees in my yard, many that can hit the house.
Tallahassee will likely not be the same due to how many trees we have. It’s definitely our hallmark - canopy roads and very few houses that have clear cut yards with most having the tall pines, live oaks and beach magnolia hardwood types densely present on their properties and neighborhoods. It will be until Thanksgiving before we cut ourselves out and have it all off streets and yards.
For those on the Iowa side of family tree unfamiliar with Tallahassee, this is a view from tallest building in town to the north of downtown. About 150k people live in that “forest” in the background.
60-70 percent of those trees will be gone in Cat 3-4 storm….
https://www.thegazette.com/derecho-...w-how-derecho-changed-eastern-iowa-landscape/
