Yup. I don't think the money is gonna be big enough to be the main determinant for most recruits. The top 5-10 players in the country? Maybe there is big money for them as recruits. And maybe there is something smaller for the top 100. Idk.
But, for most recruits, they need to become elite players (on the field, in college) to have a national market. And there are really only a handful of national names in college football in a given year. I'd say around 10-15.
Beyond them, the NIL money is going to be local and it's going to be a lot less and it's going to be driven by local fanbases.
That local money matters. I think it can be a recruiting edge for teams like Iowa and Nebraska that dominate their markets. But I doubt it will be the main factor for most recruits.
Well, I think the unspoken market is with the high school recruits. As of today, Iowa has offered the following kids:
YEAR # STATE OF RESIDENCE
2025: 2 (MO & IL)
2024: 7 (CT, IA, IL, FL, MO, NE)
2023: 26 (AL, IA, NJ, AZ, FL, MN, KS, MO, TN, IL, MI, IN, NE, GA)
They're all local stars. We all know if they're good enough to get a Hawkeye offer, others will follow. It's these recruits that might very well be establishing the NIL businesses (with parental consent). Similar to child actors.
How well they do (and,
where they do well at) will impact their school choice.
Remember, the example above
is only Iowa ~ multiply by 129 other D-1 schools.