Posted this deep in a thread in the Lounge, but wanted to share here since we've had a few threads on the profile of our recruits - especially by race. Ultimately, the Final 4 teams are predominantly black because 85-90% of the Top 150 recruits in each class are black. It's like saying "Final 4 teams appear to be made up of the best players". One could argue that the only reason race should even be noteworthy is if Final 4 teams WEREN'T predominantly black.
I looked at Wisconsin's 4 and 5 star basketball recruits, and they almost entirely have come from Wisconsin or Minnesota. Their roster is usually pretty white and it hasn't hurt them either on or off the court. From a few years ago - a Final 4 team:
Their system may help deflect a bit of their lack of athleticism, however, whereas Fran does have a lot more tempo in his scheme. But it does show that using general stats (most successful teams have x% black athletes) isn't as accurate as using individual skill assessment - and fit to a scheme - to predict performance. You can succeed with a "whiter" lineup, but you still need talent and that talent has to fit your scheme extremely well.
Fran generally does a good job finding pieces that are under-recruited and fit his scheme. I believe that there are 4 main reasons why our roster may currently skew a bit toward's Wisconsin's in terms of (lack of) diversity:
1. Regional demographics - not just Iowa, but surrounding states
2. Urban politics & Ethics - within regional urban areas like Chicago, it's hard to break into the AAU network, and especially so while not cheating
3. Targeted skill sets - the attributes Fran prioritizes for his schemes (ball skills) perhaps weight elite athleticism slightly lower than some others. Maybe his offensive focus (shooting, passing) tends to under-weight the defensive attributes (quickness, jumping) with the exception of the value he places on LENGTH, perhaps thinking it offsets some of the others. He is color blind when recruiting, but his skill priorities probably make him more comfortable trading off athleticism slightly for skill (and length). In doing so he probably does create some value since 8 out of 10 other coaches don't use that approach, but it all assumes that his targeted skills come together on the court well. (I think they do, but we still may need at least 1 athletic difference maker). This INDIRECTLY may contribute to a slightly whiter lineup although the cause is skill priority, not race.
4. Lack of success - we don't have to leave the state if we want Top 150-250 ranked players. Our state and the areas right across the border produce enough of them to keep a roster full. But to land players in the Top 100, we often need to leave the state, and it is VERY hard to pull a kid into Iowa when we haven't had a Sweet 16 run in quite awhile. It's a bit chicken or the egg - need talent to win, need to win to attract talent. Wisconsin has had success in Minnesota, and so I think it's important that Fran keep making efforts up there and he has offered quite a few from their better AAU programs. Just keep working it.
Take a look at the RIVALS 150 for 2019:
https://n.rivals.com/prospect_rankings/rivals150/
My visual audit gives these results:
Top 1-50: 5 whites, only 1 under 6'6" (Nico Mannion at 6'3", McDonalds All American - Arizona)
Top 51-100: 8 whites, only 1 under 6'6" (Patrick McCaffrey at 6'8" listed here)
Top 101-150: 5 whites, only 1 under 6'6" (3 of them ranked between 145-150)
TOP 150 TOTAL: 18 whites, 3 under 6'6"
If you look at where they are from, and what their other offers are, what compelling reason would they have to jump a couple of states over and play for Iowa.....especially if Iowa doesn't cheat? If you want an athletic kid under 6'6", it's TOUGH unless they grew up in-state.
What strengths does Iowa have to offer? From the other Big 10 coaches point of view, only easy entry:
Luckily, I do think Fran has a few things to offer that aren't listed:
Our program isn't elite enough that we won't have tradeoffs with any coach we hire. I'm comfortable with Fran currently even given a few weaknesses, because he's all in with Iowa, he's very open, he runs a clean program, and he plays a fun style of basketball. He's pretty good at finding gems on the recruiting trail - we just need to have some post season success to enable him to get 1 or 2 Top 50 recruits from out of state every several years.
Just one first round NBA level player to go with our current group of very good players would be enough....and that's generally Wisconsin's recipe also. They just have a few more 4 and 5 stars in state, and have been able to get a few more from Minnesota.
I looked at Wisconsin's 4 and 5 star basketball recruits, and they almost entirely have come from Wisconsin or Minnesota. Their roster is usually pretty white and it hasn't hurt them either on or off the court. From a few years ago - a Final 4 team:
Their system may help deflect a bit of their lack of athleticism, however, whereas Fran does have a lot more tempo in his scheme. But it does show that using general stats (most successful teams have x% black athletes) isn't as accurate as using individual skill assessment - and fit to a scheme - to predict performance. You can succeed with a "whiter" lineup, but you still need talent and that talent has to fit your scheme extremely well.
Fran generally does a good job finding pieces that are under-recruited and fit his scheme. I believe that there are 4 main reasons why our roster may currently skew a bit toward's Wisconsin's in terms of (lack of) diversity:
1. Regional demographics - not just Iowa, but surrounding states
2. Urban politics & Ethics - within regional urban areas like Chicago, it's hard to break into the AAU network, and especially so while not cheating
3. Targeted skill sets - the attributes Fran prioritizes for his schemes (ball skills) perhaps weight elite athleticism slightly lower than some others. Maybe his offensive focus (shooting, passing) tends to under-weight the defensive attributes (quickness, jumping) with the exception of the value he places on LENGTH, perhaps thinking it offsets some of the others. He is color blind when recruiting, but his skill priorities probably make him more comfortable trading off athleticism slightly for skill (and length). In doing so he probably does create some value since 8 out of 10 other coaches don't use that approach, but it all assumes that his targeted skills come together on the court well. (I think they do, but we still may need at least 1 athletic difference maker). This INDIRECTLY may contribute to a slightly whiter lineup although the cause is skill priority, not race.
4. Lack of success - we don't have to leave the state if we want Top 150-250 ranked players. Our state and the areas right across the border produce enough of them to keep a roster full. But to land players in the Top 100, we often need to leave the state, and it is VERY hard to pull a kid into Iowa when we haven't had a Sweet 16 run in quite awhile. It's a bit chicken or the egg - need talent to win, need to win to attract talent. Wisconsin has had success in Minnesota, and so I think it's important that Fran keep making efforts up there and he has offered quite a few from their better AAU programs. Just keep working it.
Take a look at the RIVALS 150 for 2019:
https://n.rivals.com/prospect_rankings/rivals150/
My visual audit gives these results:
Top 1-50: 5 whites, only 1 under 6'6" (Nico Mannion at 6'3", McDonalds All American - Arizona)
Top 51-100: 8 whites, only 1 under 6'6" (Patrick McCaffrey at 6'8" listed here)
Top 101-150: 5 whites, only 1 under 6'6" (3 of them ranked between 145-150)
TOP 150 TOTAL: 18 whites, 3 under 6'6"
If you look at where they are from, and what their other offers are, what compelling reason would they have to jump a couple of states over and play for Iowa.....especially if Iowa doesn't cheat? If you want an athletic kid under 6'6", it's TOUGH unless they grew up in-state.
What strengths does Iowa have to offer? From the other Big 10 coaches point of view, only easy entry:
Luckily, I do think Fran has a few things to offer that aren't listed:
- Fun, fast tempo offense where the coach gives you a fair amount of latitude to do your thing
- You don't have to play defense all the time (I kid, I kid!)
- A great fan base who will adore you if you win
- A great campus
- An offense where bigs get opportunities to face up from 3 and/or post up on the block
- A coach who has your back and whose program has very few defections or off the court issues
Our program isn't elite enough that we won't have tradeoffs with any coach we hire. I'm comfortable with Fran currently even given a few weaknesses, because he's all in with Iowa, he's very open, he runs a clean program, and he plays a fun style of basketball. He's pretty good at finding gems on the recruiting trail - we just need to have some post season success to enable him to get 1 or 2 Top 50 recruits from out of state every several years.
Just one first round NBA level player to go with our current group of very good players would be enough....and that's generally Wisconsin's recipe also. They just have a few more 4 and 5 stars in state, and have been able to get a few more from Minnesota.
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