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Kamala’s lead keeps dwindling. JFC this is pitiful.

Well, yeah, the greater point is to the OP about Kamala losing ground. She’s actually gained a little, but I don’t put much stock in the random peaks and valleys in polling.

The truth is neither candidate is out of this race, and voter turnout is perhaps more important than it’s ever been. With that said, I think Trump has a lower ceiling than Kamala. He’s no longer the renegade candidate that’s a curious alternative to the establishment. He’s been on the scene for over eight years now and most people outside of his base are just as annoyed with him as they are bored with him.

In other words, I think there is a greater likelihood that Kamala pulls in upset in say North Carolina or Georgia than Trump in somewhere like Wisconsin or Michigan. The only trump card (pun maybe intended) that I see is truly undecided voters having reservations about voting for a woman—especially one of color. Unfortunately, not everyone is above that level of bigotry and misogyny.

We’ll see.
To clarify, I am gauging this by using the 538’s aggregation, which showed her peaking at about a 3.5% lead, then slowly losing that lead down to 2.4%. She has since recovered some of it; with a 2.9% lead right now; still lower than her peak. That is not enough to win the EC.

As far as people with misgivings about voting for a black woman, I have to believe 99% of them made their mind up a long time ago.

I do think with Robinson’s problems in NC, there is a slight chance she could pull off an upset there. But I think Trump has a better chance of grabbing PA or MI than she has in GA or AZ.
 
About the Trump voters that don't admit it. Do those people even exist anymore? Trump gave them their out and they took it. They have no shame admitting it now. FB is a very different place with these people okay with everyone knowing how hateful they are.
 
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About the Trump voters that don't admit it. Do those people even exist anymore? Trump gave them their out and they took it. They have no shame admitting it now. FB is a very different place with these people okay with everyone knowing how hateful they are.
Yup...unlike you, we are very hateful of this >

 
This article popped up on my feed:


The race is still anyone’s to win, but Kamala is in a much better position than Trump. As long as she doesn’t coast and continues to work her butt off in those swing states, she should win the EC. Should. It’s all about voter turnout.
538 now reports the probability of a Harris win at 58%

For those not familiar with looking at it this way, that's a probability of winning, not a poll spread.

 
To clarify, I am gauging this by using the 538’s aggregation, which showed her peaking at about a 3.5% lead, then slowly losing that lead down to 2.4%. She has since recovered some of it; with a 2.9% lead right now; still lower than her peak. That is not enough to win the EC.
There's actually a lot of speculation now that the popular vote/electoral college disconnect may have faded this year, Trump is potentially doing much better in blue states like New York compared to 2020 than in the battlegrounds. NY Times had a piece on this in the last week--a key passage:

The simplest way to measure the advantage in the Electoral College is to take the difference between the national popular vote and the vote in the “tipping-point” state (the state that puts one candidate over the top in the Electoral College). Right now, Vice President Harris leads the polling in the national vote by 2.6 percentage points, and leads Wisconsin — the current tipping-point state — by 1.8 points, which makes Mr. Trump’s advantage less than a point.

By this measure, Mr. Trump’s advantage is only around one-fifth as large as it was four years ago, when President Biden fared 3.8 points better nationally than in Wisconsin (the tipping-point state in 2020).


 
You’re desperate son. Kamala is going to win and actually fix things. Trump knows his past history with human trafficking is a losing record.
Kamala is in office now and hasn't fixed anything. Her one job as the border czar has resulted in over a 400% increase in illegal migration and she is on video cheering for ending all deportation and legalizing all drugs. 🤡
 
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You’re desperate son. Kamala is going to win and actually fix things. Trump knows his past history with human trafficking is a losing record.
Kamala COULD fix things but Republicans will block her at every turn. They KNOW Democrats have the better ideas for everyone but their rich donors so they won’t allow Americans to see Democrat policies succeed. Even when those policies are good for the majority they will tell their base they aren’t…and that idiot base will believe them.
 
Kamala COULD fix things but Republicans will block her at every turn. They KNOW Democrats have the better ideas for everyone but their rich donors so they won’t allow Americans to see Democrat policies succeed. Even when those policies are good for the majority they will tell their base they aren’t…and that idiot base will believe them.
100% wrong. Harris and biden created the crisis through executive action, not legislation. Pure cope.
 
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Kamala COULD fix things but Republicans will block her at every turn. They KNOW Democrats have the better ideas for everyone but their rich donors so they won’t allow Americans to see Democrat policies succeed. Even when those policies are good for the majority they will tell their base they aren’t…and that idiot base will believe them.
Yup >

 
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