- Sep 13, 2002
- 98,393
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There is also this, however:
TRUMP’S SHRINKING ELECTORAL-COLLEGE ADVANTAGE?: JVL’s written a lot about the efficient electoral distribution of Donald Trump’s voters, which allowed him to remain competitive in the electoral college despite getting trounced in the popular vote in both 2016 and 2020. But data journalists are starting to wonder: Is that electoral-college edge shrinking?
“According to the New York Times’s polling average,” Times analyst Nate Cohn writes this morning, “it does not seem that Kamala Harris will necessarily need to win the popular vote by much to prevail”:
TRUMP’S SHRINKING ELECTORAL-COLLEGE ADVANTAGE?: JVL’s written a lot about the efficient electoral distribution of Donald Trump’s voters, which allowed him to remain competitive in the electoral college despite getting trounced in the popular vote in both 2016 and 2020. But data journalists are starting to wonder: Is that electoral-college edge shrinking?
“According to the New York Times’s polling average,” Times analyst Nate Cohn writes this morning, “it does not seem that Kamala Harris will necessarily need to win the popular vote by much to prevail”:
The core battlegrounds are clear enough: The polls show Ms. Harris leading in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, states that would be enough for her to win the presidency provided she wins the more Democratic-leaning states and districts where she currently leads. On average, Ms. Harris is faring a hair better than Mr. Biden’s election results across these states.
The national polls, on the other hand, show Ms. Harris faring about two points worse than Mr. Biden’s results. Clearly, Mr. Trump is polling better in noncompetitive parts of the country, even as Ms. Harris shows resilience where it counts. Together, it reduces the size of Mr. Trump’s advantage in the Electoral College.