I think I appreciate what you are trying to do. However, the expanded stats don't help or hurt my points. You're focusing on comparable records with other schools. I only used one matchup as an example of a point concerning talent. My point isn't about matchups or outliers. Not all head to head records would serve here because, of course, there are "other things at play", but you're missing the metaphorical purpose of the inclusion of the one I used. My point is talent beats lesser talent more often. It is indisputable. There are examples of the contrary, but they will always be the minority at some number less than 50 percent. I don't care if it's a spelling bee, skateboarding, cooking, or exploring the New World. Every point you want to use that opposes it rests in the minority. Talent beats lesser talent. It is stunning that this is even a discussion. You're overrating the handfuls of examples and circumstances that do exist, like matchups and work ethic. This is why something like Strengthsfinder from the early Oughts used research to motivate people to cultivate their strengths instead of working hard to raise their weaknesses. Inherent talent must be found, fed, and refined for us to be our best selves. You can work all day, all week, all month, all year, all decade, all of your life at improving, say, organization skills, but you may only improve a small percentage. Meanwhile, someone with a talent in organization skills will barely lift a finger and be naturally more organized than you in an hour. Unfortunately, most people spend most of their time trying to catch up to others where they are weak. A true talent is innate, given. These talents will not lose to those who don't have them very often.
If I stated water is important to humans to live, someone would have to wedge their way in with their exception and inflate it be a false majority.
Talent will beat lesser talent more often than it doesn't in major college football. An AJ will improve at a quicker rate than a Parker Hesse. That still doesn't mean Parker is not good.