March 14 Joe Lunardi / ESPN Bracketology: IOWA is on the Bubble (7th Team OUT). #59 NET Ranking (8th Best in B1G) on March 14

[Franisdaman]

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

So, we need to root against Drake today?
Ok.
NW hammered Minny last nite.
Not sure that we want NW in tourney but they are different away from home.

You know, the more I look at it, Indiana St has only 1 Q1 win coming into today +22 total wins against Q3+Q4 opponents. Drake has 3 Q1 wins. This is probably a win or go to the NIT type of game.

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

You know, the more I look at it, Indiana St has only 1 Q1 win coming into today +22 total wins against Q3+Q4 opponents. Drake has 3 Q1 wins. This is probably a win or go to the NIT type of game.

Then again I left them in because there has never been a team inside the top 31 of the NET to benefit out of the tournament. This will be interesting to watch. I think they DESERVE to be in but that criteria is often ignored when it comes to bubble teams.

 

[Birky]

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As in, they play each other in those rounds, so it’s literally impossible. Is that what the tweet is implying?

 

[HoustonREDHawk]

Can someone explain why MSU has such a high NET. For comparison, which is easy in the B1G NET standings, Nebraska seems very comparable but their NET is much lower. I think MSU and Nebraska should both be comfortably in the dance, but I a baffled why MSU's NET isn't more like 40-50.

 

[WestCoastHawkI]

Can someone explain why MSU has such a high NET. For comparison, which is easy in the B1G NET standings, Nebraska seems very comparable but their NET is much lower. I think MSU and Nebraska should both be comfortably in the dance, but I a baffled why MSU's NET isn't more like 40-50.

Their coach

 

[Franisdaman]

You know, the more I look at it, Indiana St has only 1 Q1 win coming into today +22 total wins against Q3+Q4 opponents. Drake has 3 Q1 wins. This is probably a win or go to the NIT type of game.

If Indiana State wins, does Drake also make the Big Dance?

 

[markfromj]

If Indiana State wins, does Drake also make the Big Dance?

Maybe.

 

[Franisdaman]

 

[Franisdaman]

As in, they play each other in those rounds, so it’s literally impossible. Is that what the tweet is implying?

yeah, and it's how Iowa can overtake these bubble teams

 

[Franisdaman]

As of 12:41 pm CT today, Iowa is the 2nd team OUT

 

[Franisdaman]

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

If Indiana State wins, does Drake also make the Big Dance?

I think rooting for Drake is the right move. That Indiana St resume is really weak…except their metrics. I’m not even sure what to do with them if Drake wins. Probably plug my nose and put them in a play in game.

 

[Franisdaman]

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

Lets stay far, far away from Purdue…until the championship game of course.

 

[Franisdaman]

I think rooting for Drake is the right move. That Indiana St resume is really weak…except their metrics. I’m not even sure what to do with them if Drake wins. Probably plug my nose and put them in a play in game.

tie ball game right now....

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

tie ball game right now....

Both of these teams belong in the tourney.

 

[83Hawk]

Maybe.

No.

 

[Franisdaman]

Both of these teams belong in the tourney.

do you think they are going to expand the field from 68 to Lord knows what number?

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

do you think they are going to expand the field from 68 to Lord knows what number?

Eventually, yes. $$$$

 

[Franisdaman]

Eventually, yes. $$$$

just like the CFP expanding from 4 to 12 and soon to 14 or 16

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

Colorado 10
Miss St 11
Texas A&M 11
New Mexico 11
Virginia 11
Drake 11
Richmond 11
Iowa FFO
Pitt FFO
Indiana St FFO
Utah FFO
Providence NFO
KSU NFO
Wake NFO
Ohio St NFO

 

[markfromj]

Lets stay far, far away from Purdue…until the championship game of course.

Which means get the 6 seed?

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

Which means get the 6 seed?

Yep.

Need and Iowa and Mich St win. Could drop to a 7 but let’s not consider that scenario.

 

[LukaDuka]

If Mich St loses to Indiana & another first round BTT loss, are they out? Record would be 18-14. Indiana currently up 20-5

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

If Mich St loses to Indiana & another first round BTT loss, are they out? Record would be 18-14. Indiana currently up 20-5

They would likely still be in. Top 30 NET, 4 Q1 wins. Might drop to a play in game if the cards fall a certain way.

 

[Franisdaman]

Colorado 10
Miss St 11
Texas A&M 11
New Mexico 11
Virginia 11
Drake 11
Richmond 11
Iowa FFO
Pitt FFO
Indiana St FFO
Utah FFO
Providence NFO
KSU NFO
Wake NFO
Ohio St NFO

the folks in the studio didn't seem hopeful for Indiana State making it

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

the folks in the studio didn't seem hopeful for Indiana State making it

Yeah I’m with them. Not enough meat on the bone.

 

[LukaDuka]

the folks in the studio didn't seem hopeful for Indiana State making it

Kind of crazy if the MWC is projecting 6 bids & MVC can't get 2? I think MVC steals a bid from MWC here.

 

[Franisdaman]

Kind of crazy if the MWC is projecting 6 bids & MVC can't get 2? I think MVC steals a bid from MWC here.

and the B1G right now is only projected to get 6 bids; Iowa would make 7

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

Colorado 10
Miss St 11
Texas A&M 11
Virginia 11
New Mexico 11
Drake 11
Richmond 11
Pitt FFO
Indiana St FFO
Utah FFO
KSU FFO
Iowa NFO
Providence NFO
Wake NFO
Ohio St NFO

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

Iowa needs to win 3 in the BTT to even have a chance. The entire team, sans Harding, shit the bed at the absolute worst time.

 

[Franisdaman]

Iowa needs to win 3 in the BTT to even have a chance. The entire team, sans Harding, shit the bed at the absolute worst time.

not sure about winning 1 and if we do, beating the Illini won't be easy on tired legs

 

[markfromj]

Iowa needs to win 3 in the BTT to even have a chance. The entire team, sans Harding, shit the bed at the absolute worst time.

I’d say 2.

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

I’d say 2.

Kind of depends on other teams.

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

Iowa’s NET, already not great, is going to drop again.

 

[Mohawkeye]

I’d say 2.

2 would make it close. Definitely not a guarantee. Tonight was a missed opportunity.

 

[BirdistheWord]

Iowa beats OSU and we are back into FFO. Beat IL and we are in. LFI. We have to play a perfect game to beat IL.

Some potential strategy changes if we get to semis:

Go big for better rebounding (less Krikke, more Dembele and dare I say Brauns? The guy hustles and has some body mass)

Given how bad we rebound, why not inject more zone?

Ride Brock for 25+ minutes + Freeman, Perkins, Payton and Dix

I am grasping, please share other ideas.

 

[BirdistheWord]

Iowa needs to win 3 in the BTT to even have a chance. The entire team, sans Harding, shit the bed at the absolute worst time.

Out depth/rotations are a struggle. Pryce did ok but he was treading. Water at best. PMac gets sand kicked in his face every time against IL. Dembele showed flashes but needs to play smarter.

Brock brings an element we desperately need.

Krikke was just bad.

So we have a 6 man rotation:

Freeman (needs more shots)
Tony (2 points?)
Payton
Dix
Brock
Dembele

 

[BirdistheWord]

2 would make it close. Definitely not a guarantee. Tonight was a missed opportunity.

My logic:

Pretend we beat IL.

Then beat a team comparable to Minny.

Then lose to IL.

I would have said high likelihood we are in.


Looking ahead…we basically duplicated the above, just flipped the IL wins. In the potential scenario, the IL win is on a neutral court. So even better for us.