March 14 Joe Lunardi / ESPN Bracketology: IOWA is on the Bubble (7th Team OUT). #59 NET Ranking (8th Best in B1G) on March 14

[Mohawkeye]

Iowa beats Minny and we are back into FFO. Beat IL and we are in. LFI. We have to play a perfect game to beat IL.

Some potential strategy changes if we get to semis:

Go big for better rebounding (less Krikke, more Dembele and dare I say Brauns? The guy hustles and has some body mass)

Given how bad we rebound, why not inject more zone?

Ride Brock for 25+ minutes + Freeman, Perkins, Payton and Dix

I am grasping, please share other ideas.

Agree. More Dembele and Brock, less PMac and Krikke. Neither can defend.

I wonder if Pryce might have better luck guarding Shannon? Dix gave effort but I think Shannon is just too physical for him. Perkins would be more logical, but he’s never been a disciplined defender, he takes off too many plays.

On a side note, I was really impressed with Brock’s defense tonight. The kid does not back down and he’s really clever with his hands. We are a better team when he plays.

 

[Cyanide]

Iowa beats Minny and we are back into FFO. Beat IL and we are in. LFI. We have to play a perfect game to beat IL.

Some potential strategy changes if we get to semis:

Go big for better rebounding (less Krikke, more Dembele and dare I say Brauns? The guy hustles and has some body mass)

Given how bad we rebound, why not inject more zone?

Ride Brock for 25+ minutes + Freeman, Perkins, Payton and Dix

I am grasping, please share other ideas.

Doesn't Iowa play Ohio State?

 

[BirdistheWord]

Agree. More Dembele and Brock, less PMac and Krikke. Neither can defend.

I wonder if Pryce might have better luck guarding Shannon? Dix gave effort but I think Shannon is just too physical for him. Perkins would be more logical, but he’s never been a disciplined defender, he takes off too many plays.

On a side note, I was really impressed with Brock’s defense tonight. The kid does not back down and he’s really clever with his hands. We are a better team when he plays.

I think you meant Perkins (Pryce would get eaten alive). Maybe they share duties and trade back and forth? They (IL) are so much stronger and more athletic. And he’ll, they just make tough shots too.

We have to stop all the IL dunks and layups. Our roster just does not have many options.

I know we scored some points off turnovers but I would back off on the press. It just wears us out.

 

[BirdistheWord]

Doesn't Iowa play Ohio State?

Yes. I will change, my overall point still stands.

(I swear I saw a bracket that had us against minny? Thanks for the assist)

 

[Mohawkeye]

I think you meant Perkins (Pryce would get eaten alive). Maybe they share duties and trade back and forth? They (IL) are so much stronger and more athletic. And he’ll, they just make tough shots too.

We have to stop all the IL dunks and layups. Our roster just does not have many options.

I know we scored some points off turnovers but I would back off on the press. It just wears us out.

No, I meant Pryce. Perkins hasn’t shown that he can defend Shannon. I think he logically SHOULD match up better, but I’ve not seen it. Pryce is at least long, which makes up for some lack of quickness. Just spitballing, Shannon torched us in both games.

 

[MeetTheFerentzes]

Oops.gif

 

[BirdistheWord]

No, I meant Pryce. Perkins hasn’t shown that he can defend Shannon. I think he logically SHOULD match up better, but I’ve not seen it. Pryce is at least long, which makes up for some lack of quickness. Just spitballing, Shannon torched us in both games.

Sorry, just not seeing it. Pryce has poor lateral quickness and lacks strength. He is long, but doubt that would work against Shannon’s muscle. Dix is still our best bet with maybe some help from Perkins. But he is a problem matchup no matter who is on him.

If we can win the first game, we are still alive.

 

[Mohawkeye]

Sorry, just not seeing it. Pryce has poor lateral quickness and lacks strength. He is long, but doubt that would work against Shannon’s muscle. Dix is still our best bet with maybe some help from Perkins. But he is a problem matchup no matter who is on him.

If we can win the first game, we are still alive.

Yeah, I don’t disagree. He’s a problem for anyone.

 

[Underscore2]

We have to win the B1G tournament to get "in". I don't think our metrics are good enough to get in with 14 losses any other way. Are any good bracketoligists suggesting otherwise? And from what I've heard, the committee doesn't value conference tournaments that much I.E. Texas A&M that one time. So if we beat Illinois in the tournament somehow, that might account for something, but kinda too late.

 

[Franisdaman]

Iowa’s NET, already not great, is going to drop again.

Yep.

Here are today's NET Rankings.

Iowa is now #60 in the NET, which is 8th best in the B1G.

Iowa is 3-8 in Quad 1 games.

NET
Rank..Previous..Record...Road..Neutral..Home..Quad1...Quad 2...Quad 3...Quad 4

2	2	Purdue	Big Ten	28-3	7-3	5-0	16-0	11-3	8-0	6-0	3-0
15	15	Illinois	Big Ten	23-8	6-5	2-0	15-3	5-6	6-1	7-1	5-0
22	22	Wisconsin	Big Ten	19-12	3-9	2-0	14-3	4-8	7-4	4-0	4-0
25	23	Michigan St.	Big Ten	18-13	3-7	1-2	14-4	3-8	5-5	6-0	4-0
37	40	Nebraska	Big Ten	22-9	3-8	1-0	18-1	4-6	4-3	7-0	7-0
50	50	Northwestern	Big Ten	21-10	4-7	2-1	15-2	4-6	5-3	5-0	7-1
54	60	Ohio St.	Big Ten	19-12	2-8	4-0	13-4	3-6	2-5	9-1	5-0
60	57	Iowa	Big Ten	18-13	4-8	2-1	12-4	3-8	5-3	4-2	6-0
77	72	Maryland	Big Ten	15-16	4-8	0-2	11-6	2-8	4-4	2-4	7-0
86	87	Minnesota	Big Ten	18-13	2-8	0-1	16-4	1-8	5-3	3-2	9-0
89	95	Penn St.	Big Ten	15-16	2-8	0-4	13-4	2-8	4-5	4-2	5-1
93	97	Indiana	Big Ten	18-13	4-6	1-2	13-5	3-8	5-4	4-1	6-0
102	93	Rutgers	Big Ten	15-16	3-9	0-2	12-5	2-12	4-2	2-2	7-0
132	127	Michigan	Big Ten	8-23	2-10	1-3	5-10	3-12	1-7	2-3	2-1

 

[Franisdaman]

Iowa needs to win 3 in the BTT to even have a chance. The entire team, sans Harding, shit the bed at the absolute worst time.

Well, I guess we won't face Purdue until the B1G Championship game

Looks like we will have to beat Ohio State, Illinois and (most likely) Nebraska.

 

[Franisdaman]

2 would make it close. Definitely not a guarantee. Tonight was a missed opportunity.

I still wanna know what they did during their week off

 

[Franisdaman]

Iowa beats OSU and we are back into FFO. Beat IL and we are in. LFI. We have to play a perfect game to beat IL.

Some potential strategy changes if we get to semis:

Go big for better rebounding (less Krikke, more Dembele and dare I say Brauns? The guy hustles and has some body mass)

Given how bad we rebound, why not inject more zone?

Ride Brock for 25+ minutes + Freeman, Perkins, Payton and Dix

I am grasping, please share other ideas.

Fran played 9 players yesterday. I know people don't want to ever see PMac on the court again but we need bodies in order to win 3 games in 3 days.

And we need Ben to produce. In 14 minutes, he was 0-2 from the field, 2-2 from the FT line, for 2 points, 1 rebound, 1 steal and 1 block. He had just 2 fouls.

I do like Ladji's game; he's raw but he's got so much potential; he runs well, aggressively rebounds and plays really hard.

The rebounding margin (50-33) was horrible yesterday. At the same time, Iowa missed 42 shots (Iowa shot 23-65 for 35%).

Minutes yesterday:
38: Josh Dix
33: Payton
28: Owen
27: Tony
14: Ben
...........................
24: PMac
14: Brock
12: Pryce
10: Ladji
...........................
200 Total
============

 

[Franisdaman]

My logic:

Pretend we beat IL.

Then beat a team comparable to Minny.

Then lose to IL.

I would have said high likelihood we are in.


Looking ahead…we basically duplicated the above, just flipped the IL wins. In the potential scenario, the IL win is on a neutral court. So even better for us.

good points

the bubble is so weak; I think we are going to see a ton of upsets in other tournaments, which would help our cause. we just need to show up at the BTT

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Iowa needs to win 3 in the BTT to even have a chance. The entire team, sans Harding, shit the bed at the absolute worst time.

Dix played pretty well.

 

[MAXIMUSHAWKEYE]

I don't think we'll beat OSU. NIT here we come.

 

[Franisdaman]

Agree. More Dembele and Brock, less PMac and Krikke. Neither can defend.

I wonder if Pryce might have better luck guarding Shannon? Dix gave effort but I think Shannon is just too physical for him. Perkins would be more logical, but he’s never been a disciplined defender, he takes off too many plays.

On a side note, I was really impressed with Brock’s defense tonight. The kid does not back down and he’s really clever with his hands. We are a better team when he plays.

Brock is so quick; he moves his feet really well on defense and stays in front of who he's defending.

The kid is a baller. His handle and & his passing are incredible. I would love to see a LOT more minutes from him, especially when Owen is on the court.

 

[amahawk]

Iowa played a legit Tourney team last night. It wasn't pretty.

 

[Franisdaman]

I don't think we'll beat OSU. NIT here we come.

I hope we don't see a repeat of last year.

Thursday, March 9, 2023​

SECOND ROUND

• GAME 3: #9 Rutgers 62, #8 Michigan 50. Rutgers was a 3-pt underdog.
• GAME 4: #13 Ohio State 73, #5 Iowa 69. OSU was a 2.5-pt underdog.
• GAME 5: #10 Penn State 79, #7 Illinois 75. PSU was a 2.5-pt underdog.
• GAME 6: #6 Maryland 70, vs. #14 Minnesota 54. Maryland was a 12.5-pt favorite.

 

[Franisdaman]

We have to win the B1G tournament to get "in". I don't think our metrics are good enough to get in with 14 losses any other way. Are any good bracketoligists suggesting otherwise? And from what I've heard, the committee doesn't value conference tournaments that much I.E. Texas A&M that one time. So if we beat Illinois in the tournament somehow, that might account for something, but kinda too late.

Shelby Mast is the Bracketologist for USA Today. His projections are based on how he thinks the Selection Committee will make their selections, not how he would want to make them, if the season ended TODAY.

On his website he brags that he is one of the most accurate Bracketologists with 15+ years experience and a 98% accuracy rate since 2005.

After yesterday's games, at 10:02 pm CT, he had Iowa as the 1st team OUT.

He wrote this in regards to IOWA: The Madness is heating up. Iowa had a chance to solidify their place in the bracket - they failed, still alive though. Appalachian St laid an egg. Michigan St is really testing the committee.

Last 4 in - New Mexico, Virginia, St Johns, Texas A&M
First 4 out - Iowa, Colorado, Providence, Utah
Next 4 out - Butler, Kansas St, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest

He has 6 B1G teams in.

1 Purdue (#1 overall seed)
4 Illinois (#15 overall seed)
6 Wisconsin (#23 overall seed)
8 Northwestern (#32 overall seed)
9 Nebraska (#36 overall seed) @Alum-Ni
11 Michigan State (#41 overall seed)


Link to his bracket & analysis:

Shelby's Bracket WAG

www.bracketwag.com

 

[ozzie8]

As the 7 seed, Iowa has another opportunity. Beat Ohio st and they get Illinois again. Just don’t shit the bed again like last night

 

[Franisdaman]

I don't think we'll beat OSU. NIT here we come.

John is a College Basketball TV broadcaster (mostly on FOX). He provides commentary on "The Field of 68."

 

[BirdistheWord]

Yeah, I don’t disagree. He’s a problem for anyone.

We just don’t have the horses. Illinois has size, athleticism and strength well beyond us. And it’s not like they are short on skill either. Ugh.

 

[EpenesaEpenesa]

We just don’t have the horses. Illinois has size, athleticism and strength well beyond us. And it’s not like they are short on skill either. Ugh.

It was still there for the taking. If someone told me Iowa would get the looks they did shooting the ball and Illinois scores 73, I wouldve said Iowa wins the game by 10

 

[HoustonREDHawk]

Iowa beats OSU and we are back into FFO. Beat IL and we are in. LFI. We have to play a perfect game to beat IL.

Some potential strategy changes if we get to semis:

Go big for better rebounding (less Krikke, more Dembele and dare I say Brauns? The guy hustles and has some body mass)

Given how bad we rebound, why not inject more zone?

Ride Brock for 25+ minutes + Freeman, Perkins, Payton and Dix

I am grasping, please share other ideas.

Patrick and Krikke are going to get physically overwhelmed against Illannoy every time, so I mostly agree. Zone defense usually doesn't improve defensive rebounding, but I would mix it in. Illannoy is just so much superior physically that it is a major task to keep them from dominating inside. Running the offense and hitting shots is the only way Iowa can beat them. We even minimized TOs, and we need to continue doing that also.

Not much good to say about the performance last night. One of Tony's worst all season, leaving Payton chucking up a shot every time he saw any daylight. Dix didn't hit all his shots, like the past few games, but he still remained solid. He keeps competing hard on both ends... Harding had a great spurt to make the game potentially winnable in the first half, but he was forcing too many inside shots among the trees. Owen has been very inconsistent for the past few weeks, and Dembele continues to show that he is a player of the future.

Need to win 2, including a third game with Illannoy to have a shot at getting into the dance.

 

[BirdistheWord]

It was still there for the taking. If someone told me Iowa would get the looks they did shooting the ball and Illinois scores 73, I wouldve said Iowa wins the game by 10

True, we couldn’t hit a barn, and IL seemed to make everything. But it’s the WAY they were able to score, some semi difficult shots but tons of easy buckets and wide open 3’s.

Everything was difficult for us on the offensive end and ZERO second chances.

 

[Franisdaman]

Iowa is the 4th team OUT according to Joe Lunardi/ESPN projections this morning:

Last 4 byes: Colorado State, Seton Hall, TCU, Miss State

Last 4 IN: Indiana State, Virginia, Colorado, St Johns

First 4 OUT: Villanova, New Mexico, Texas A&M, IOWA

Next 4 OUT: Wake Forest, Pitt, Providence, Memphis


He has 6 B1G Teams in:
1 Purdue
4 Illinois
6 Wisconsin
8 Northwestern
9 Nebraska
9 Michigan State

Men's Bracketology: The fact that UConn even has a chance to three-peat is amazing

The last time anyone saw an NCAA basketball three-peat the heroes were John Wooden, Bill Walton and the UCLA Bruins. Enter the current UConn Huskies.

www.espn.com

 

[EpenesaEpenesa]

True, we couldn’t hit a barn, and IL seemed to make everything. But it’s the WAY they were able to score, some semi difficult shots but tons of easy buckets and wide open 3’s.

Everything was difficult for us on the offensive end and ZERO second chances.

To me, looked like Iowa ran out of gas mentally/physically trying to make that comeback. Felt like they were up against it all night.

 

[BirdistheWord]

Patrick and Krikke are going to get physically overwhelmed against Illannoy every time, so I mostly agree. Zone defense usually doesn't improve defensive rebounding, but I would mix it in. Illannoy is just so much superior physically that it is a major task to keep them from dominating inside. Running the offense and hitting shots is the only way Iowa can beat them. We even minimized TOs, and we need to continue doing that also.

Not much good to say about the performance last night. One of Tony's worst all season, leaving Payton chucking up a shot every time he saw any daylight. Dix didn't hit all his shots, like the past few games, but he still remained solid. He keeps competing hard on both ends... Harding had a great spurt to make the game potentially winnable in the first half, but he was forcing too many inside shots among the trees. Owen has been very inconsistent for the past few weeks, and Dembele continues to show that he is a player of the future.

Need to win 2, including a third game with Illannoy to have a shot at getting into the dance.

Yes, if we can limit turnovers and hit a lot more shots we have a chance.

 

[Mohawkeye]

It was still there for the taking. If someone told me Iowa would get the looks they did shooting the ball and Illinois scores 73, I wouldve said Iowa wins the game by 10

If Perkins has a normal night then it would have been an even game. Illinois is going to beat us 8-9 times out of 10, but they aren’t blowing us out. We have a chance if we play them again. They were locked in yesterday, to their credit.

Am I the only person who thinks Dembele looks like he’s 6’11” out there? His defense and passing impress me. He should be starting over Krikke, but that won’t happen.

 

[LukaDuka]

No, I meant Pryce. Perkins hasn’t shown that he can defend Shannon. I think he logically SHOULD match up better, but I’ve not seen it. Pryce is at least long, which makes up for some lack of quickness. Just spitballing, Shannon torched us in both games.

Dix is our best on ball defender. I get your point about length, but Dix contests shots pretty well. Defense is a team effort and they shouldv'e focused more on stopping Shannon as a team. He had way to many drives and open looks. I would have sent double teams at him and get the ball out of his hands. Make someone else beat you. He absolutely destroyed Iowa, esp in the first half.

Didn't seem like anyone helped stop his drives.

 

[LukaDuka]

Yes, if we can limit turnovers and hit a lot more shots we have a chance.

only 5 TO's against Illini

 

[Franisdaman]

It was still there for the taking. If someone told me Iowa would get the looks they did shooting the ball and Illinois scores 73, I wouldve said Iowa wins the game by 10

yeah, Iowa had a lot of good shots yesterday; they just didn't fall.

IIRC correctly, Iowa was down by 21 at one point & got it down to 4 or 5 on a couple occasions....they just couldn't complete the comeback....

 

[Underscore2]

Lol Arkansas State in their conf final. Good news they have been relatively good for our net all year - compared to the other freebies locked in Q4. Bad news, they could steal a bid, assuming James Madison is considered "in" already.

 

[BirdistheWord]

only 5 TO's against Illini

Yes, we have to maintain that to have a chance this week

 

[BirdistheWord]

Well, I guess we won't face Purdue until the B1G Championship game

Looks like we will have to beat Ohio State, Illinois and (most likely) Nebraska.

I still believe that two wins gets it done. Same logic as beating IL yesterday + one win in BTT. And both wins are on neutral floor, so a plus. 3 would certainly eliminate any doubt.

 

[Max_Rebo]

I still believe that two wins gets it done. Same logic as beating IL yesterday + one win in BTT. And both wins are on neutral floor, so a plus. 3 would certainly eliminate any doubt.

I agree. If a win over Illinois yesterday would have gotten us "in," a win over them Friday should do the same. We just have to get past tOSU first, which I am not personally counting on.

 

[Iron Doc]

We should resign ourselves to a NIT bid.
The current squad is not NCAA worthy.
Too many spindly folks and (almost) no facillitators.

 

[LukaDuka]

We should resign ourselves to a NIT bid.
The current squad is not NCAA worthy.
Too many spindly folks and (almost) no facillitators.

I know the NCAA bid is coveted and rightly so. But would this team be better off in NIT? NCAA one & done. NIT, chance to get to the championship, play more games, win more, gain confidence & experience. Get bounced in first round and end the year with a bad taste...

 

[Franisdaman]

...............Indiana St.....IOWA
Quad 1:........1-4................3-8
Quad 2:.......4-1................5-3
Quad 3:.....10-0...............4-2
Quad 4:.....12-1................6-0
...................27-6............18-13



NET
Rank..Previous..Record...Road..Neutral..Home..Quad1...Quad 2...Quad 3...Quad 4

29

26

Indiana St.

MVC

27-6

9-4

6-1

12-1

1-4

4-1

10-0

12-1

60

57

Iowa

Big Ten

18-13

4-8

2-1

12-4

3-8

5-3

4-2

6-0