2 major what the Hell issues for me. Starfish at 8!! Are you freaking kidding me! He was hurt on fluke deal! Not like he was faking it to protect his seed. He is a 3 time champ and his only “losses” are defaults! What a joke. Carr at 4 are you kidding me….
NCAA Selection Show
- Thread starter jmadden1998
- Start date
Yeah I feel like the seeding from top to bottom is very poorly done across the board. Worst I have seen in many years and it’s not just one weight class it’s multiples. Hell vito is a 6 seed ha. Only losses are to #1 dude but dog him down
Some of our seed numbers are not the best but do like our chances of getting 5 to the semis. Ayala road to the semis is about a good as it can be, Woods has a nice road as well, I actually like Franek’s draw Teemer won’t be doing much of anything in that match, Cali has Ramirez probably the worst 3 seed there is to get to the semis and PK has Harvard kid that is beatable and if Griffith makes it far he won’t be anywhere near 100% and PK was so close to beating him when he was 100%.
That is only true if Starocci and Griffith aren’t as injured as they seem. The draw can actually be very favorable if they are both considerably less than optimal, which I think is actually rather likely…
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Carter is healthy. Griffith not so much. Carter did a 7 minute interview yesterday. He is a GO to put it mildly. Like a hungry caged animal GO.
If you’re basing his health off a 7 minute interview, my grandma in a wheelchair could give a 7 minute interview but I’m not sure she could wrestle very well………but I’m still taking Carter to win the weight.
So 2-loss Carr over 2-loss Ramirez by two slots, with Ramirez as H2H winner? It’s in there as one criteria. If anything, the equal weight on all conference placements is the much more debatable criteria. Obviously B12 is a stronger, at least at 174. Even then, a #2 over a #1 gets tricky.
My gut tells me Carter will be healthy enough to win it all and Shane will be in the consis and mentally and physically done by before he gets to the quarters.
Dude, the Olejnik loss is several magnitudes worse than ANY loss Carr and Hamiti have. Plus, like I said, the win over Carr was December 1st, by 1 point. That is giving a TON of value to a single match over 3 months ago....
Look, I get why you would want it this way. There is NO denying it makes Messenbrink's road to the finals infinitely easier. But, are you honestly telling me you think Ramirez is better than Carr and Hamiti? Do you truly think that one very early, close win should trump the worst loss of the group?
Mind you, even the final coaches ranking had Carr over Ramirez. It did have Ramirez over Hamiti, but 4 and 5 are interchangeable so I don't think anyone would care which way that part went...
If he is "healthy" why would he not wrestle at B1G's? Come on, man. Don't be that guy...
lol. I'm not stopping your brain from working. You are. B1Gs are of little consequence next to Nationals and Olympic Trials. Why chance it when you can get an at-large anyway? See how easy that was. You're welcome.
I don't recall any coach since before Gable that had a team finish worse than 8th, ammirite?
LMFAO, so then why would anyone wrestle at B1G's at all? I mean if you are healthy 2 days later, you had to be healthy enough to compete. So, why waste the time and effort to participate in a tournament of "little consequence"?
I can't believe how many people are stopping their brains from working and wrestling in such an insignificant tournament when Nationals and Olympic Trials are around the corner. Maybe you are on to something. I will do my best to get that revolutionary idea out to the right coaches so they can piggy back off of such a ground breaking idea...
Looks like a lot of the guys could/should wrestle above their seeds, hell if they don’t it’s gonna get ugly in here. How many AA for the hawks, 125,141,157,174?
hot take alert but i think the seeds are good and they got pretty much everything right.
comparing rankings to seeds is silly on that topic. they are two different methodologies.
starocci wrestled a very limited schedule and didn’t go at big tens. the committee has to follow their procedures not what everyone thinks is right.
it is the shock value that throws people off. seeing a potential 4xer at 9 and a world champ at 6 is weird. you get what you earn.
comparing rankings to seeds is silly on that topic. they are two different methodologies.
starocci wrestled a very limited schedule and didn’t go at big tens. the committee has to follow their procedures not what everyone thinks is right.
it is the shock value that throws people off. seeing a potential 4xer at 9 and a world champ at 6 is weird. you get what you earn.
What you’re missing is that I’m not even looking at Mitch’s path here, just whether as written they could justify putting Ramirez one notch above Carr vs. putting him 1-2 below. Carr beat Hamiti, and Ramirez beat Carr. All three have two losses, no?
So do you think we toss all the objective criteria and use a 49% computer ranking only feeding in results, and 51% subjective coaches’ ranking - making the coaches’s ranking essentially the tiebreaker? Or would go outside panel on the subjective piece?
The only thing that concerns me with Carter IF healthy is his lungs. Missing a month will hurt for a big time tourney. I know he’s PSU but I would love to see him win 4 with everything that’s happened in the past month.
My biggest takeaway is that they are seemingly putting much more weight on conference championships than they have in the past.
Which sort of makes sense after all of the backlash the past few years about people MFFing matches. And I don’t entirely disagree. It puts them in a tough spot to subjectively try and guess who would’ve won a match. Where treating every MFF/Inj Def the same as any other loss makes it much more objective.
Which sort of makes sense after all of the backlash the past few years about people MFFing matches. And I don’t entirely disagree. It puts them in a tough spot to subjectively try and guess who would’ve won a match. Where treating every MFF/Inj Def the same as any other loss makes it much more objective.
I am not missing anything. I simply pointed out that the coaches ranking still has Carr ahead of Ramirez for a reason. Quality wins along with coaches ranking should be enough to stay ahead of Ramirez when his only true argument is a 4-3 head to head on December 1st....On top of that, just saying they all have 2 losses is short sighted. The losses themselves should matter as well. If you are going to give Ramirez so much credit for the head to head win, he should equally be penalized for the Olejnik loss when it is much more significant than any of the others losses....
Personally, I want the seeding committee not trying to make a bunch of subjective decisions based on their opinions as to whether Carr or Ramirez is better.
Exceptions should be made if the loser of the head to head has a clearly superior season. But in cases like this one… where they have very similar credentials, the H2H should be by far the biggest factor.
I posted a few days ago this exact order for seeding 165. I actually thought this might be the easiest weight to predict. I had Peyton Hall at eight instead of nine, but I thought the top seven were clear cut.
Like I said, please engage brain before typing. Despite what you may think about your argument, you're not winning this one. One last try. If an 80% Carter would have gotten gotten further hurt at B1Gs, you would have been the first on here griping about Cael only thinking about his B1Gs record at the expense of his star wrestler. In this case, Cael held him out for the "greater good" in Carter's specific case. It was the right call even though everyone, including Carter, was disappointed. Carter is a special case, and that is why there is a rule that allows him to do exactly what was done. Are you saying rules were broken? The obvious truth here is that B1Gs are of NO consequence compared to Nationals and the Olympics. None. Zero. The only people who trumpet a B1G title are those who don't own a National title. A B1G title is great. Very few have one. Even fewer have National titles. Even fewer still have Olympic titles. That's the point of holding Carter out.
Your argument is hopeless. There are only 4-5 at-large bids at nationals so your idea has no merit. Have an argument with someone else. Good day sir.
Exactly. People forget that we asked for this.
I’m guessing if it were next year, Franek would have wrestled Robb. He might actually be better off the 10 seed instead of the 8, but it absolutely cost him at least 2 seeds.
If Iowa does finish 9th, it'll be the lowest team finish since 1971-1972 under then head coach David McCuskey.
We're talking the lowest finish in 42 years...yeah, I think Hawkeye fans would have plenty to be upset about.
We're talking the lowest finish in 42 years...yeah, I think Hawkeye fans would have plenty to be upset about.
None of what you say is what I am arguing against. I would be the last person going against Cael for his decision. If you actually READ, I am extremely complimentary of damn near everything he and PSU does. I ONLY do my best to go after the FANS like you.
You are the one that said he is HEALTHY. That is the SOLE thing I am arguing against with you. That is beyond an asinine take. Its the equivalent of Iowa saying McDonough was healthy. As such, I am making fun of your take that all of this was don'e because Cael was so brilliant that he knew Carter was healthy, but didn't want to risk him getting hurt some other way.
It is such an hilarious take because you would then just do that with ALL your runaway best guys to ensure they make it to NCAA's unscathed. The simple truth is Carter has a significant injury that he is going to wrestle through and is in the best shape he can be for what he is dealing with. THAT, is why I told you not to be "that guy"....
With only nine points separating third and ninth place, and looking at a few of our draws where we can absolutely wrestle above seed… I’m not too worried just yet.
You realize they use a formula now right? They seed based on what has happened not who they think is better. I would pick Carr in a rematch but he did lose to Ramirez and he didn't win his conference.
I think every understands holding him out. As long as Carter didnt care about the big 10 title, nobody else should either. PSU obviously didn't need the points for the team race
I think the issue/question is can he really have gone from 80% to 100% in a few days. And even if hes still at 80% (or even 50%) he might still be the favorite.
Disagree. I think there are three guys at 165 who can beat Mesenbrink, and they're all on the top side, away from him. That's....fortunate.
Well, big brain guy, using your deep understanding of logic and human physiology, why did any of the Penn State guys wrestle at B1Gs? Why didn't they all default twice?
I am well aware. This all started by a poster saying Hamiti got screwed with his seed. I simply have listed my reasons why I agree. I, absolutely think coaches ranking along with quality wins and properly valuating losses should have enough sway in the case of Carr, to trump a 12/1/23 loss by 1 point. That and winning the EIWA shouldn't be more valuable in ANY formula than taking 2nd in Big12's to the 2 time defending champ.
Simply put, sometimes the humans need to step in and look at the factors beyond the basic data. In this case, I do GET why the formula puts Ramirez ahead, I simply think the formula is wrong in this case...
I think you have an absolutely terrible take on this. Yet you keep digging in.
Not to mention, you are basically saying any wrestling done before New Year’s is irrelevant. I guess we should just cancel those first two months of the season. Or bench all of our starters.
It’s obvious Carter is hurt and the poster stepped in it by saying he’s healthy now. The two weeks more of recovery will help the injury but hurt his conditioning. No one knows how hurt he is . My uneducated guess from all the rumors from jnsiders is that it could have been worse and he will probably be around 80 percent. Just my uneducated opinion. I still thinks he wins it. It’s not 65.
if people want to figure out a way to fix the carr/ramirez seeds then it has to be about punishing guys like ramirez and daton for sitting out during the duals each guy respectively had against isu/lehigh. crookham and carr showed up but daton/ramirez didn’t… but be careful what you wish for because if something like that comes in to play it’s going to result in even more chaos than having carter at the 9.
Its a great country, isn't it? We can disagree vehemently on something with no repercussions for doing so. You are obviously entitled to your opinion.
With that said, NO I don't think the match is irrelevant. I didn't just say ignore the match. I gave a multitude of reasons where I think the match is overvalued due to those other factors. Also, YES I absolutely think a match on December 1st is less valuable than a match in March. This is especially true in DI wrestling. With how wrestlers peak today, i am EXTREMELY confident the current Carr version beats Ramirez.
My overall point is simple. David Carr's total season was actually better than Ramirez's. His quality wins is substantially higher and his losses are better. That along with his coaches ranking, IMHO, should be enough to trump a very close 4-3 loss in December.
Also, ebo5 made a GREAT, VERY IMPORTANT point. Ramirez also sat out a dual against ISU. That is significant as it blocked Carr from a chance to avenge that loss just 17 days later. If Ramirze beat him again, there would be no argument. If Carr would have won, the seeds end up exactly how I said they should. Being able to sit out the dual after is damn near the same as Franek not wrestling for 3rd after beating Robb a couple of matche earlier. In Franek's case he was severely penalized. In Ramirez's case it is irrelevant because there is NO data point in the formula for when that happens during the season...
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Of course. This is the truth of the matter, Carter is hurt. "How hurt?" is the actual question. I don't think he's going to win (due solely to the injury), but I kind of hope he does. It would be a cool story, and also Carter has the kind of antics and attitude I love, plus he's really stepped up his dominance and action on the mat this season.
I love Franek's chances as the 10 or the 7 seed. Not so much as the 8 or 9. Not saying he will, but with a good tournament he can beat anyone on the bottom side of the bracket. Not so much on the top side. That is a better path to the finals. Drake, Real, Franek, Caliendo, PK, and Glazier all have good paths to the quarters. Won't be any easy matches from there, but they are all capable of making it to the semis (other than Glazier against Hidlay as I don't see that happening) with their likely quarterfinal matchups. To get a trophy the Hawks will need those six in the quarters and at least 4 in the semis imo.
CS is nowhere near 100%. Is he capable of winning it all at less than....we shall see. He talks like he's ready to roll at full strength, but that simply isn't true. You don't have a fully wrapped and taped knee with a leg sleeve and brace at practice with very little live wrestling if you are having no issues. I do like his attitude tho.
To some guys who have never won a B1G title or aren't a likely national champion, wrestling at B1Gs is super important. For those who want a better seed at nationals, B1Gs is important. For those few who have greater aspirations and seeding is less important, defaulting twice isn't the end of the world. You disagree?
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